Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Blue3]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-crisis-mp-interview-ak-47-112600107.html

Former Ukrainian president from 2014-2019 takes to the streets of Kyiv to fight the Russians

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1497267568461205509
Is Germany the only holdout now?

Lindner said Germany is open to it today

Hm, well he said open to it if all EU countries agree which is a quite convenient bar to set (which even if Italy changes mind, still leaves many aside Germany opposed like Austria, Hungary Bulgaria, I believe NL too was mentioned by evening news yesterday but not 100% sure). This evening he said also said first the implications have to be studied (which EU commission is currently doing) , especially regarding if Russia will still deliver gas as then it will be very hard for them to get paid. Although he also said that simply asking the question of the consequences does not mean exclusion of the option per se, even if the consequences are bad.

Also the Foreign Minister today (who is actually the most Russia-sceptical minister) said that she is sceptical because it makes it very difficult to finance humanitarian projects, from experience when it was done with Iran. I actually think this is pretty pathetic reasoning, because it seems pretty clear that we are going to have to look again at the full bandwidth of our relationship with Russia, including as already demonstrated culture/sport and humanitarian issues are all touched. If the economic price is too high, then be honest.

German FM doubles down on opposition to SWIFT exclusion In Interview tonight:
https://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/video/video-993977.html

- "The sharpest sword isn't always the smartest"
- too much Collateral Damage, would hit civil society too much, and for instance ordinary Russians in Germany who need to send payments to relatives
- "as the government we also have a responsibility to ensure that the Germans can heat and have electricity"

It can change, but considering she is so adamant (unlike her always sceptical attitude to NS2, which shone through even when she was forced to defend it), I really can't see it happening right now.

What’s German for ‘America First’?

[urutzizu]

https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1497267568461205509
Is Germany the only holdout now?

Lindner said Germany is open to it today

Hm, well he said open to it if all EU countries agree which is a quite convenient bar to set (which even if Italy changes mind, still leaves many aside Germany opposed like Austria, Hungary Bulgaria, I believe NL too was mentioned by evening news yesterday but not 100% sure). This evening he said also said first the implications have to be studied (which EU commission is currently doing) , especially regarding if Russia will still deliver gas as then it will be very hard for them to get paid. Although he also said that simply asking the question of the consequences does not mean exclusion of the option per se, even if the consequences are bad.

Also the Foreign Minister today (who is actually the most Russia-sceptical minister) said that she is sceptical because it makes it very difficult to finance humanitarian projects, from experience when it was done with Iran. I actually think this is pretty pathetic reasoning, because it seems pretty clear that we are going to have to look again at the full bandwidth of our relationship with Russia, including as already demonstrated culture/sport and humanitarian issues are all touched. If the economic price is too high, then be honest.

German FM doubles down on opposition to SWIFT exclusion In Interview tonight:
https://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/video/video-993977.html

- "The sharpest sword isn't always the smartest"
- too much Collateral Damage, would hit civil society too much, and for instance ordinary Russians in Germany who need to send payments to relatives
- "as the government we also have a responsibility to ensure that the Germans can heat and have electricity"

It can change, but considering she is so adamant (unlike her always sceptical attitude to NS2, which shone through even when she was forced to defend it), I really can't see it happening right now.

What’s German for ‘America First’?

Deutschland über alles

[KaiserDave]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-crisis-mp-interview-ak-47-112600107.html

Former Ukrainian president from 2014-2019 takes to the streets of Kyiv to fight the Russians

Wow I hope he’s alright

[compucomp]

https://twitter.com/Blake_Allen13/status/1497332333778718720

This does not sound like a leader who's confident in a negotiated peace, as well he shouldn't be.

He should probably formally ask for an armistice now before this happens and try to get more lenient peace terms rather than what he'll get if he's a POW and major cities fall under Russian control.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://twitter.com/Blake_Allen13/status/1497332333778718720

This does not sound like a leader who's confident in a negotiated peace, as well he shouldn't be.

He should probably formally ask for an armistice now before this happens and try to get more lenient peace terms rather than what he'll get if he's a POW and major cities fall under Russian control.

Masturbating in public is in poor taste, compucomp.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1497322791095484416
Bulgaria closes its airspace to Russian planes. RIA is a Russian news agency, so this is credible. Russian news is not going to make something like this up.

Now the whole of the EU should follow suit. But I have a suspicion the German speaking member countries won't bother because muh profits.

[Omega21]

https://twitter.com/IuliiaMendel/status/1497316041663332363
Zelensky's former press secretary, so this is highly credible.

There is incentive for both sides to hold talks: Russia has done far worse than most observers had expected, and in the long run Ukraine's army will not be able to hold off Russia's army.

Very good news to hear.
May peace prevail in Ukraine.

If Russia really agreed to these peace talks because their army has fumbled the ball in Ukraine let's hope that this also means that Putin doesn't try to squeeze them dry in negotiations (recognition of Crimea as Russian territory and the entire Donbas as independent, putting into writing that Ukraine won't seek NATO membership etc.). Because if he does we either could be back to square one rather quickly because Ukraine then pulls out of the talks or if Ukraine agrees to those terms Putin will come out of the whole thing victorious after all.

It might be possible a compromise is put in place where the entire Donbass is reintegrated with Ukraine in return for the country becoming neutral a la Austria in the Cold War? (If Putin has enough of a hand, then add in Crimea being Russian being recognized by the international community, but this would be much more unlikely)

Ukraine would probably fare best if it isn't political football, and all this, taken together, would shore up both Putin and Zelensky, allowing both to claim victory. It would also help NATO as they have to expend less money on redeployments.

See the thing is Russia doesn’t want a neutral Ukraine. They could have had that easily without all this.

Ukraine did not even implement the Minsk agreements, which they agreed to, and started making preparations for NATO membership?

On 14 September 2020, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky approved Ukraine's new National Security Strategy, "which provides for the development of the distinctive partnership with NATO with the aim of membership in NATO."

If it had implemented Minsk, renounced Crimea & embraced constitutional neutrality, we would not be here now.

Was that realistic? No, these are very significant concessions and Ukraine did not think Putin would go through with an all out invasion.

Now, it is obvious they are in a worse position, and such a compromise is better than having Grozny level destruction in a city of 3 Million, which might actually happen if they keep up resistance while refusing to negotiate.

Ultimately, it is the only way I see for them to prosper long term without looking over their shoulder, or in this case, border.

All the Western Powers are eager to argue for Ukraine in negotiations and demand better conditions, but when sh**t actually hit the fan, it doesnt seem anyone was actually there to back it up.

[All Along The Watchtower]

https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1497267568461205509
Is Germany the only holdout now?

Lindner said Germany is open to it today

Hm, well he said open to it if all EU countries agree which is a quite convenient bar to set (which even if Italy changes mind, still leaves many aside Germany opposed like Austria, Hungary Bulgaria, I believe NL too was mentioned by evening news yesterday but not 100% sure). This evening he said also said first the implications have to be studied (which EU commission is currently doing) , especially regarding if Russia will still deliver gas as then it will be very hard for them to get paid. Although he also said that simply asking the question of the consequences does not mean exclusion of the option per se, even if the consequences are bad.

Also the Foreign Minister today (who is actually the most Russia-sceptical minister) said that she is sceptical because it makes it very difficult to finance humanitarian projects, from experience when it was done with Iran. I actually think this is pretty pathetic reasoning, because it seems pretty clear that we are going to have to look again at the full bandwidth of our relationship with Russia, including as already demonstrated culture/sport and humanitarian issues are all touched. If the economic price is too high, then be honest.

German FM doubles down on opposition to SWIFT exclusion In Interview tonight:
https://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/video/video-993977.html

- "The sharpest sword isn't always the smartest"
- too much Collateral Damage, would hit civil society too much, and for instance ordinary Russians in Germany who need to send payments to relatives
- "as the government we also have a responsibility to ensure that the Germans can heat and have electricity"

It can change, but considering she is so adamant (unlike her always sceptical attitude to NS2, which shone through even when she was forced to defend it), I really can't see it happening right now.

What’s German for ‘America First’?

Nazism?

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1497322791095484416
Bulgaria closes its airspace to Russian planes. RIA is a Russian news agency, so this is credible. Russian news is not going to make something like this up.

This is surprising.  Bulgaria has always been very pro-Russia historically.  I would have thought they would just take a completely neutral position.

[The Free North]

You have to assume that Putin very much intends for his 'talks' with Kiev to be accompanied by a formal surrender from Ukraine.

[Storr]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-crisis-mp-interview-ak-47-112600107.html

Former Ukrainian president from 2014-2019 takes to the streets of Kyiv to fight the Russians

Wow I hope he’s alright

Imagine any of America's billionaires doing this. Poroshekno is wealthy enough he could have left on a private jet and be in the Caymans already.

[All Along The Watchtower]

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1497322791095484416
Bulgaria closes its airspace to Russian planes. RIA is a Russian news agency, so this is credible. Russian news is not going to make something like this up.

This is surprising.  Bulgaria has always been very pro-Russia historically.  I would have thought they would just take a completely neutral position.

Perhaps they see Putin's deranged aggression for what it is.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-crisis-mp-interview-ak-47-112600107.html

Former Ukrainian president from 2014-2019 takes to the streets of Kyiv to fight the Russians

Wow I hope he’s alright

Imagine any of America's billionaires doing this. Poroshekno is wealthy enough he could have left on a private jet and be in the Caymans already.

You have to respect the patriotic fervor.

[Storr]

If the civilian population is doing this, I don't see the Ukrainian public even wanting to start talks: https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1497322211400634374?s=20&t=4k3u3vC...

[Blue3]

Pope Francis makes unusually move of walking directly to the Russian embassy and demanding peace
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/pope-francis-russian-embassy-ukraine_n_6218e5aee4b0ef74d72f052f

[Badger]

If Ukraine somehow is spared, it will be in spite of, and not because of Biden and NATO.

 Disagree. The material and intelligence support and support the US and nato has provided has been incalculable.  Is the sanctions less so, but still a factor.

We could have done more-looking at you Italy and Belgium refusing to wean yourself off of Russian produce luxury goods and diamonds for Pete's sake-but NATO and Biden  Did pretty much all they could hear with only some missteps.

[Astatine]

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1497322791095484416
Bulgaria closes its airspace to Russian planes. RIA is a Russian news agency, so this is credible. Russian news is not going to make something like this up.

This is surprising.  Bulgaria has always been very pro-Russia historically.  I would have thought they would just take a completely neutral position.

They're a NATO member though.

[Storr]

Incredibly, incredibly based:

https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1497320380968669199?s=20&t=d6wbs_jqec92...

[Meclazine for Israel]

[KaiserDave]

I just watched the Poroshenko video. That's incredible, there's no doubt he's a true patriot.

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/markhertling/status/1497253373648719876?s=21

Oh yeah here’s this too

 May the driver of that tank have their spine shattered till they are paralyzed, then have a group of partisans beat them to death Over the course ofseveral excruciating hours.

[jaichind]

Russia vetoes the UN Security Council resolution that called on Moscow to halt the attack on Ukraine, withdraw troops.  PRC abstains (leaving it to Russia to do veto themselves.)

[Alcibiades]

https://twitter.com/Blake_Allen13/status/1497332333778718720

This is an insanely risky move by Russia — it’s not like they’ve got Kyiv fully encircled yet. Putin is clearly in a hurry. If the Russians fail, which we can only hope they do, it would be a major blow to their entire plan. The Ukrainians will have had time to take up good positions throughout the day, so they should be able to put up a good fight (after all, they have already demonstrated their indomitable spirit many times over), but this could get extremely nasty for both soldiers and civilians.

[KaiserDave]

Incredibly, incredibly based:

https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1497320380968669199?s=20&t=d6wbs_jqec92...

We've received so much evidence that Ukraine's people are incredible warriors and patriots. Amazing.