Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[urutzizu]

After (presumably) getting a mouthful in conversations today with EU foreign rep Borrell, UK FM and France foreign advisor, Chinese FM Wang Yi clarifies position:

China's basic position on the Ukraine issue, which can be summarized in the following five points:

1. China firmly advocates the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries, including Ukraine
2. Russia has legitimate security demands after five consecutive rounds of NATO's eastward expansion
3. imperative that all parties exercise restraint to prevent the situation in Ukraine from worsening
4. China welcomes direct dialogue between Russia and Ukraine as soon as possible.
5. The Chinese side believes that the UN Security Council should play a constructive role in solving the Ukraine issue

https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/wjbzhd/202202/t20220226_10645790.shtml

Looking at the government narratives in recent days it has been very Anti-American, but also quite explicitly not anti-European. Assume they are sweating about the impact this could have China-Europe relations. At the end China has quite good relations, even and especially with countries like Poland (Duda visit Beijing for Olympics). Supporting Russia is largely emotional, sure, it is understandable, but Russia is like 2% of world GDP, leaning in too far could be very bad for China.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1497303072778768390?t=GP3yZz-B84mKwRH5uN...

It pretty much seems that this is not going as well as they thought. The reports about Russia losing over 2,800 men in less than two days seem credible. So that's more than half of American losses in Iraq already.

Putin should be embarrassed of himself not just for the severe pain he's inflicting on the brave people of Ukraine, but that he's sending young Russians to death by the thousands for his Greater Empire fantasies. At this point, maybe the EU should offer asylum to any Russian soldier in Ukraine who quits.

[KaiserDave]

Clearly that was another flaw with the Ukrainian defense plan, just like France in 1940 with the Ardenne, they planned their defenses around an "impassable" natural barrier that wasn't actually impassable. But first, this was not a surprise attack and the Ukrainians should have been digging trenches and otherwise building fortifications to blunt the expected attack from Belarus. They do have entrenchments in place in Luhansk and Donetsk and thus the attacks from the DPR and LPR have not gotten very far. Second, the "trading space for time" and "bleed the enemy" strategy you refer to implies Kiev needs to be given up and needed to be combined with an evacuation of the capital and Zelensky to Lvov. But Zelensky chose to stay in Kiev, which is good to keep Ukrainian morale high, but it had to be combined with an all-out defense of Kiev or else the result is what we see now; Zelensky is threatened directly within 2 days and is forced to ask for an armistice.

Maybe I'm nitpicking, but do you use the Russian spelling for Ukrainian cities intentionally? "Kiev" is one thing, but no one says "Lvov."

Conpucomp is a contemptible Russia hack, of course he does

[2016]

Russia is repositioning Intercontential Ballistic Missiles near Moscow
https://twitter.com/AuroraIntel/status/1497306128111353856

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1497310354745040901?s=21

[Person Man]

It's hilarious how many here fail to realize that Santander is a liberal just playing a character, especially since he "breaks character" quite often.

Or is it the other way around?

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Russia is repositioning Intercontential Ballistic Missiles near Moscow
https://twitter.com/AuroraIntel/status/1497306128111353856

Surely they're not going to deploy these ... right?

[2016]

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1497310354745040901?s=21

No matter how the Biden Administration spins this their Sanctions do not seem to work otherwise Putin would have stopped the assault.

Ukrainians do not have a month for these to work!

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Clearly that was another flaw with the Ukrainian defense plan, just like France in 1940 with the Ardenne, they planned their defenses around an "impassable" natural barrier that wasn't actually impassable. But first, this was not a surprise attack and the Ukrainians should have been digging trenches and otherwise building fortifications to blunt the expected attack from Belarus. They do have entrenchments in place in Luhansk and Donetsk and thus the attacks from the DPR and LPR have not gotten very far. Second, the "trading space for time" and "bleed the enemy" strategy you refer to implies Kiev needs to be given up and needed to be combined with an evacuation of the capital and Zelensky to Lvov. But Zelensky chose to stay in Kiev, which is good to keep Ukrainian morale high, but it had to be combined with an all-out defense of Kiev or else the result is what we see now; Zelensky is threatened directly within 2 days and is forced to ask for an armistice.

Maybe I'm nitpicking, but do you use the Russian spelling for Ukrainian cities intentionally? "Kiev" is one thing, but no one says "Lvov."

Conpucomp is a contemptible Russia hack, of course he does

I have to make an active effort not to use the Soviet-era names for everything because of where (or, rather, when) my historical interests lie, but I think it's pretty clear that that's not what compucomp's issue is.

[ꙮ]

Russia is repositioning Intercontential Ballistic Missiles near Moscow
https://twitter.com/AuroraIntel/status/1497306128111353856

Genuine question: Why would you need to move ICBMs to use them? "Inter-continental" is in the name.

[DavidB.]

Not a bad idea. Israel hasn't condemned Russia's attack yet, which is reprehensible from a moral perspective, but which might make them acceptable to Russia as a neutral honest broker and contribute to peace.
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1497315065980022785?s=20&t=Wz8pxkhRXSNpt...

[Silent Hunter]

Russia is repositioning Intercontential Ballistic Missiles near Moscow
https://twitter.com/AuroraIntel/status/1497306128111353856

Genuine question: Why would you need to move ICBMs to use them? "Inter-continental" is in the name.

Dispersal from garrisons that might be targeted to launch sites in the countryside. Those ones can't stay on permanent alert.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1497310354745040901?s=21

No matter how the Biden Administration spins this their Sanctions do not seem to work otherwise Putin would have stopped the assault.

Ukrainians do not have a month for these to work!

I seriously doubt that any form of sanctions - including those who have only been theoretically discussed so far - would make Putin stop his assault on Ukraine right now. And the politicians know that too. This is more about a a creating a deterrence against future Russian trangressions against other countries and maybe stoke dissatisfaction against Putin within Russia.

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/rich_goldberg/status/1497303369865646081?t=-V9Vq7dphxBnvmTDo...
Ugh

Kerry should've been taken to the political glue factory a decade ago. He is vile.

[Aurelius]

This is big:

https://twitter.com/alexrossmusic/status/1497242538415046657

This strikes me as inappropriate BRTD-esque "all Russians are evil" tomfoolery.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1497310354745040901?s=21

Unfortunately the sanctions against Putin and Lavrov only apply to personal financial assets and do not include the usual travel ban - because you may need them to come to the EU for future peace negotations on Ukraine. However, it is not publicly known if they even own financial assets within the EU (or in America) and in case that they do how large these are.

[Blair]

I’m curious if the delay in sending lethal aid years ago had an impact at all.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Btw, a Facebook friend of mine from Georgia (the Caucasus one) uses that as her new profile pic now:

[Omega21]

https://mobile.twitter.com/thetimes/status/1497320128081502211

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/IuliiaMendel/status/1497316041663332363

Zelensky's former press secretary, so this is highly credible.

There is incentive for both sides to hold talks: Russia has done far worse than most observers had expected, and in the long run Ukraine's army will not be able to hold off Russia's army.

[It’s so Joever]

If Ukraine somehow is spared, it will be in spite of, and not because of Biden and NATO.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

This is big:

https://twitter.com/alexrossmusic/status/1497242538415046657

This strikes me as inappropriate BRTD-esque "all Russians are evil" tomfoolery.

From Wikipedia

During the 2008 South Ossetia war, Gergiev, who is of partial Ossetian heritage himself, accused the Georgian government of massacring ethnic Ossetians, triggering the conflict with Russia.[15] He came to Tskhinvali and conducted a concert near the ruined building of the South Ossetian Parliament as tribute to the victims of the war.[16]

Gergiev has been, according to Alex Ross in The New Yorker, "a prominent supporter of the current Russian regime". In 2012, in a television ad for Putin's third Presidential campaign, he said, "One needs to be able to hold oneself presidentially, so that people reckon with the country. I don't know if it's fear? Respect? Reckoning."[17]


In March 2014 he joined a host of other Russian arts and cultural figures in signing an open letter of support for Russia's position regarding Ukraine and the Annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation. The letter was posted on the website of Russia's culture ministry on 12 March 2014. In the letter signatories stated that they "firmly declare our support for the position of the president of the Russian Federation" in the region.[23][24]

However, in September 2015, as he became chief conductor of the Munich Philharmonic, Gergiev said that he did not really sign the letter to Putin, but only had a phone conversation about it with Vladimir Medinsky.[25] The New York Times reported that Russian artists may have been pushed by the Russian government to endorse the annexation of Crimea. The article specifically mentioned Gergiev, who faced protests in New York City while performing.[26] After Ukrainian public outcry, the Ukrainian Ministry of Culture blacklisted Gergiev from performing in Ukraine.[26][27][28]

In light of the outcry over Putin waging war on Ukraine in February 2022, and Gergiev's support of Putin, Gergiev was removed from leading the Vienna Philharmonic in a five-concert US tour that was to start at Carnegie Hall the following evening.[29][30]

[Хahar 🤔]

Clearly that was another flaw with the Ukrainian defense plan, just like France in 1940 with the Ardenne, they planned their defenses around an "impassable" natural barrier that wasn't actually impassable. But first, this was not a surprise attack and the Ukrainians should have been digging trenches and otherwise building fortifications to blunt the expected attack from Belarus. They do have entrenchments in place in Luhansk and Donetsk and thus the attacks from the DPR and LPR have not gotten very far. Second, the "trading space for time" and "bleed the enemy" strategy you refer to implies Kiev needs to be given up and needed to be combined with an evacuation of the capital and Zelensky to Lvov. But Zelensky chose to stay in Kiev, which is good to keep Ukrainian morale high, but it had to be combined with an all-out defense of Kiev or else the result is what we see now; Zelensky is threatened directly within 2 days and is forced to ask for an armistice.

Maybe I'm nitpicking, but do you use the Russian spelling for Ukrainian cities intentionally? "Kiev" is one thing, but no one says "Lvov."

It is not particularly obvious that Lviv is any more just or righteous a name for Lemberg than is Lvov.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Russia is repositioning Intercontential Ballistic Missiles near Moscow
https://twitter.com/AuroraIntel/status/1497306128111353856

Surely they're not going to deploy these ... right?

This is probably why.

https://twitter.com/PenguiAnon/status/1497311994973720580

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1497322791095484416
Bulgaria closes its airspace to Russian planes. RIA is a Russian news agency, so this is credible. Russian news is not going to make something like this up.