GA-SEN 2020 Class III Megathread: She Who Loeffs Last

[Roronoa D. Law]

I think Holcomb and my girl Tominlosn can carry us to victory. I like Terry but he reminds me too much of the young and hip pretty white guy that Democrats have tried many times before and failed.

Georgia is very similar to a lot of other deep south states where Republican have gotten really comfortable to the point where they have a large bench but nothing spectacular in term of political talent.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I say GA, AZ, CO and possibly TX are duable for Dems

[Continential]

Will Sarah Riggs Amico run for the special election?

[Rookie Yinzer]

Will Sarah Riggs Amico run for the special election?

As of today- No. She was on Political Rewind and she said she had every intention of defeating Perdue. Believes she can pin him on his business experience as they both come from the private sector.

[Continential]

Will Sarah Riggs Amico run for the special election?

As of today- No. She was on Political Rewind and she said she had every intention of defeating Perdue. Believes she can pin him on his business experience as they both come from the private sector.

Dumb choice.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I think Holcomb and my girl Tominlosn can carry us to victory. I like Terry but he reminds me too much of the young and hip pretty white guy that Democrats have tried many times before and failed.

Tomlinson looks good on paper but her fundraising is disappointing.

[Suburbia]

This is not surprising.

More older senators should retire.

With all due respect, Dianne Feinstein should retire/resign soon.

Despite winning reelection in 2018, she looks frail.



This GA-SEN-SPEC is Lean R, like GA-SEN Perdue.

Gov. Kemp will appoint Geoff Duncan or Austin Scott.

Georgia Democrats will not want a white man to head the Senate ticket, so they may go with Keisha Lance Bottoms or some other person since Stacey Abrams is looking at a 2022 rematch or 2024.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

👀👀👀

[Rookie Yinzer]

Will Sarah Riggs Amico run for the special election?

As of today- No. She was on Political Rewind and she said she had every intention of defeating Perdue. Believes she can pin him on his business experience as they both come from the private sector.

Dumb choice.

She’s not spectacular. I think the Dem we choose to coalesce around needs to be someone who can activate national grassroots in the event of a splintered GOP field. The only people who can do that are Abrams and McBath.

[Tekken_Guy]

Who will Brian kemp appoint as Johnny Isakson’s successor?

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1166812835265044481

[Tekken_Guy]

Have we ever had three senators with the same last name? All of the same party? In adjacent states?

[OBD]

Wow, another pickup opportunity for Democrats! I think our chances at the Senate are slightly improved now, if still under 50%.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Wow, another pickup opportunity for Democrats! I think our chances at the Senate are slightly improved now, if still under 50%.

D odds of picking up the Senate in 2020 can't fail to be improved at least a bit.  Even if their odds of picking up this seat were only 1% (and of course they're much higher than that), it would be more than the 0% chance they'd have with no special election.

[Zaybay]

I actually dont think our chances of taking the senate have increased. GA isnt a tipping state in the case of the senate; there are 4 other races that are likely to flip before GA(CO, AZ, ME, NC). Even if GA is the tipping state, its highly unlikley the combination we get is(CO, AZ, GA, GA) or (CO, ME, GA, GA).

What I do think this increases is the Ds chance for a larger majority. Both seats are likely to track similarly to one another due to GA's inelastic nature, so if we win GA we likely get both senate seats instead of just 1. So, to show the math, before this announcement to get a rather stable 53 seat majority we would have needed (-AL, CO, AZ, ME, NC, GA, IA, TX) where now due to the retirement we need (-AL, CO, AZ, ME, NC, GA, GA, IA), a much easier feat comparatively.

[Pandaguineapig]

Will Sarah Riggs Amico run for the special election?

As of today- No. She was on Political Rewind and she said she had every intention of defeating Perdue. Believes she can pin him on his business experience as they both come from the private sector.

Given that she just drove her family business into bankruptcy that would be a hard sell

[Mr. Smith]

I actually dont think our chances of taking the senate have increased. GA isnt a tipping state in the case of the senate; there are 4 other races that are likely to flip before GA(CO, AZ, ME, NC). Even if GA is the tipping state, its highly unlikley the combination we get is(CO, AZ, GA, GA) or (CO, ME, GA, GA).

What I do think this increases is the Ds chance for a larger majority. Both seats are likely to track similarly to one another due to GA's inelastic nature, so if we win GA we likely get both senate seats instead of just 1. So, to show the math, before this announcement to get a rather stable 53 seat majority we would have needed (-AL, CO, AZ, ME, NC, GA, IA, TX) where now due to the retirement we need (-AL, CO, AZ, ME, NC, GA, GA, IA), a much easier feat comparatively.

It was the tipper in 2014, and it very well could be again. If the math is done, and 4-5 seats are needed, GA likely fills the fifth spot...and the sixth spot should Peters become threatened by James.

[IceSpear]

I actually dont think our chances of taking the senate have increased. GA isnt a tipping state in the case of the senate; there are 4 other races that are likely to flip before GA(CO, AZ, ME, NC). Even if GA is the tipping state, its highly unlikley the combination we get is(CO, AZ, GA, GA) or (CO, ME, GA, GA).

What I do think this increases is the Ds chance for a larger majority. Both seats are likely to track similarly to one another due to GA's inelastic nature, so if we win GA we likely get both senate seats instead of just 1. So, to show the math, before this announcement to get a rather stable 53 seat majority we would have needed (-AL, CO, AZ, ME, NC, GA, IA, TX) where now due to the retirement we need (-AL, CO, AZ, ME, NC, GA, GA, IA), a much easier feat comparatively.

I don't think it's a given that ME flips before GA.

[Zaybay]

I actually dont think our chances of taking the senate have increased. GA isnt a tipping state in the case of the senate; there are 4 other races that are likely to flip before GA(CO, AZ, ME, NC). Even if GA is the tipping state, its highly unlikley the combination we get is(CO, AZ, GA, GA) or (CO, ME, GA, GA).

What I do think this increases is the Ds chance for a larger majority. Both seats are likely to track similarly to one another due to GA's inelastic nature, so if we win GA we likely get both senate seats instead of just 1. So, to show the math, before this announcement to get a rather stable 53 seat majority we would have needed (-AL, CO, AZ, ME, NC, GA, IA, TX) where now due to the retirement we need (-AL, CO, AZ, ME, NC, GA, GA, IA), a much easier feat comparatively.

It was the tipper in 2014, and it very well could be again. If the math is done, and 4-5 seats are needed, GA likely fills the fifth spot...and the sixth spot should Peters become threatened by James.

The tipping point state would be the 4th, as its extremely unlikely we win the senate but not the presidency and VP gets to be the tie breaker. I guess in the scenario where we win the Senate but the Presidem loses, GA is the tipping point state, but I really doubt we are winning AZ's, NC's, ME's or whatever combination of senate seats and while at the same time losing to Trump.

[Brittain33]

I actually dont think our chances of taking the senate have increased. GA isnt a tipping state in the case of the senate; there are 4 other races that are likely to flip before GA(CO, AZ, ME, NC). Even if GA is the tipping state, its highly unlikley the combination we get is(CO, AZ, GA, GA) or (CO, ME, GA, GA).

What I do think this increases is the Ds chance for a larger majority. Both seats are likely to track similarly to one another due to GA's inelastic nature, so if we win GA we likely get both senate seats instead of just 1. So, to show the math, before this announcement to get a rather stable 53 seat majority we would have needed (-AL, CO, AZ, ME, NC, GA, IA, TX) where now due to the retirement we need (-AL, CO, AZ, ME, NC, GA, GA, IA), a much easier feat comparatively.

An open seat is easier than defeating a well-funded incumbent.

[Zaybay]

I actually dont think our chances of taking the senate have increased. GA isnt a tipping state in the case of the senate; there are 4 other races that are likely to flip before GA(CO, AZ, ME, NC). Even if GA is the tipping state, its highly unlikley the combination we get is(CO, AZ, GA, GA) or (CO, ME, GA, GA).

What I do think this increases is the Ds chance for a larger majority. Both seats are likely to track similarly to one another due to GA's inelastic nature, so if we win GA we likely get both senate seats instead of just 1. So, to show the math, before this announcement to get a rather stable 53 seat majority we would have needed (-AL, CO, AZ, ME, NC, GA, IA, TX) where now due to the retirement we need (-AL, CO, AZ, ME, NC, GA, GA, IA), a much easier feat comparatively.

An open seat is easier than defeating a well-funded incumbent.

Senate seats that are up at the same time rarely split. The last time that happened was in 1966 with Strom Thurmond(R) and Ernst Hollings(D), and the reason for the split had a lot to do with the fact that SC would send a D no matter what at the time....unless it was Thurmond.

[Calthrina950]

I actually dont think our chances of taking the senate have increased. GA isnt a tipping state in the case of the senate; there are 4 other races that are likely to flip before GA(CO, AZ, ME, NC). Even if GA is the tipping state, its highly unlikley the combination we get is(CO, AZ, GA, GA) or (CO, ME, GA, GA).

What I do think this increases is the Ds chance for a larger majority. Both seats are likely to track similarly to one another due to GA's inelastic nature, so if we win GA we likely get both senate seats instead of just 1. So, to show the math, before this announcement to get a rather stable 53 seat majority we would have needed (-AL, CO, AZ, ME, NC, GA, IA, TX) where now due to the retirement we need (-AL, CO, AZ, ME, NC, GA, GA, IA), a much easier feat comparatively.

An open seat is easier than defeating a well-funded incumbent.

Senate seats that are up at the same time rarely split. The last time that happened was in 1966 with Strom Thurmond(R) and Ernst Hollings(D), and the reason for the split had a lot to do with the fact that SC would send a D no matter what at the time....unless it was Thurmond.

It is not impossible for it to happen again, but for once, I will agree with you. And given that polarization has increased, and that Georgia is a notoriously inelastic state, I think that both seats are Lean Republican.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Ossoff?

Please stop trying to derail this thread by bringing up fictional characters. Thank you.

[Brittain33]

Please vote in a forum poll as to whether Georgia should have 1 or 2 megathreads for Senate. https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=332294.0

[Gustaf]

While I kind of agree this is unlikely to be a tipping-point seat, an extra seat is pretty useful for Democrats given the voting patterns of people like Manchin.