GA-SEN 2020 Class III Megathread: She Who Loeffs Last

[Mr. Smith]

I actually dont think our chances of taking the senate have increased. GA isnt a tipping state in the case of the senate; there are 4 other races that are likely to flip before GA(CO, AZ, ME, NC). Even if GA is the tipping state, its highly unlikley the combination we get is(CO, AZ, GA, GA) or (CO, ME, GA, GA).

What I do think this increases is the Ds chance for a larger majority. Both seats are likely to track similarly to one another due to GA's inelastic nature, so if we win GA we likely get both senate seats instead of just 1. So, to show the math, before this announcement to get a rather stable 53 seat majority we would have needed (-AL, CO, AZ, ME, NC, GA, IA, TX) where now due to the retirement we need (-AL, CO, AZ, ME, NC, GA, GA, IA), a much easier feat comparatively.

It was the tipper in 2014, and it very well could be again. If the math is done, and 4-5 seats are needed, GA likely fills the fifth spot...and the sixth spot should Peters become threatened by James.

[Mr. Smith]

Here are the gaps in votes in double-barrel Senate seats since 1980:

- Minnesota 2018: 150,000 voted both Klobuchar (D) and Housley (R), gap of 13.5 points

- South Carolina 2014 : 20,000 voted Scott (R) and Hutto (D), gap of 9.5 points

- Oklahoma 2014: 2,000 voted Inhofe (R) and Connie Johnson (D), gap of 0.6 points

- New-York 2010: 100,000 voted Schumer (D) and DioGuardi (R), gap of 6.2 points

- Mississippi 2008: 83,000 voted Cochrane (R) and Musgrove (D), gap of 12.8 points

- Wyoming 2008: 6,000 voted Enzi (R) and Nick Carter (D), gap of 4.4 points

- Kansas 1996: 77,000 voted Roberts (R) and Docking (D), gap of 17 points

- Tennessee 1994: 52,000 voted Thompson (R) and Sasser (D), gap of 5.5 points

- California 1992: 555,000 voted split between Feinstein (D) and Herschensohn (R), gap of 11.4 points


So the gap for governor in Georgia (50k or 1.4 points) was overcome in every double-barrel Senate save one since 1980.
There's a chance.

Oh? And of Wicker (R) v Espy (D) for MS 2018?

[Mr. Smith]

So what are the odds that Lieberman can actually take in the majority in the first round?

[Mr. Smith]

Jen Jordan starting to sound like a likely candidate

I'm more intrigued by the idea that those who lose the primary or run-off might switch seats.

Ossoff v. Loefller would certainly be interesting.

[Mr. Smith]

She might go down as the single worst candidate in recent history. Kemp is such an idiot for appointing her.

Roy Moore will claim that title for at least the next 20 years

Martha Coakley disagrees.

[Mr. Smith]

Is Loeffler trying to lose at this point? Her feud with the WNBA and Black Lives Matter is going to turn away any possible chance at *any* moderate Republicans voting for her.

She's trying to win hicks and become a conservative martyr to get into the runoff.

It worked well for Kemp against Cagle.

[Mr. Smith]

Trump wasn't familiar with The Proud Boys too.