GA-SEN 2020 Class III Megathread: She Who Loeffs Last

[Tekken_Guy]

Glad to hear he’s okay.

I do agree that he’ll retire in 2022. I guess Nathan Deal or Saxby Chambliss would be a placeholder. I see someone like Rob Woodall, Austin Scott, Doug Collins, or Chris Carr as his successor.

[Tekken_Guy]

Who will Brian kemp appoint as Johnny Isakson’s successor?

[Tekken_Guy]

Have we ever had three senators with the same last name? All of the same party? In adjacent states?

[Tekken_Guy]

Ossof runs.
Under pressure from Republicans to not blow GA-06, Handel runs.
We get a repeat of Ossof v. Handel, just statewide.
Two years later, Handel is defeated for reelection by Lucy McBath.

And in 2028, she faces the same Republican who she beat in GA-06 in 2020.

[Tekken_Guy]

I think Kemp will appoint Austin Scott or Karen Handel.

Unlikely. Handel’s a dead politician walking and Scott’s last name may work against his chances.

[Tekken_Guy]

Trump is urging Kemp to appoint Doug Collins

I think Kemp is looking for someone who can win in 2020 rather than trying to find the Trumpiest candidate.

[Tekken_Guy]

$20 million will go a ways toward fending off Collins, but won't fix the problems she will cause for herself in the suburbs by standing by Trump.

I think he still runs.

[Tekken_Guy]

She and McSally can enjoy being short serving senators together. This is an absolutely idiotic pick by Kemp.

As long Trump wins GA again (and he is the favorite here), she will win.

What if she doesn’t make it through the runoff?

[Tekken_Guy]

The people at the NRSC also thought that Luther Strange, Martha McSally, and Patrick Morrisey were formidable candidates and that MT-SEN/OH-SEN/WV-SEN shouldn’t be prioritized because you had "strong Democratic incumbents" running for reelection there and the Republican challengers in those states were supposedly infinitely weaker than strong incumbent Heller/Rosen infinitely weaker than Tester, Manchin, and Brown.

It’s safe to say that the people at the NRSC are some of the most inept morons in the entire country. If it wasn’t for those clowns, the Senate wouldn’t even be in play in 2020 because AL/WV would have never been lost. They don’t even deserve credit for Scott picking up FL-SEN.

WV, MT, and OH will probably all flip in 2024 regardless of who’s president.

[Tekken_Guy]

Yeah, you're unfortunately right on all of this. These people have proven to be totally inept and inefective at winning competitive races, and the worse is that the MT-SEN/WV-SEN/OH-SEN fiasco was not just a 2018 aberration, I mean it's the entire 2010 decade which was a pathetic failure, just look at all the races they fu**cked up in 2010 and 2012 and even 2014 (Gillespie would have won with more investments in VA, even if he likely would have been a single-term senator).

The sad thing is that if these very well paid people were doing their job correctly republicans would have a fairly secuure 57 seats senate majority.

Eh, I think they did pretty well in 2014 with the obvious exception of MI, which was a total disaster and should have been way more competitive. You could argue that Warner would have won by more if Republicans had decided to contest VA since Democrats would have countered with their own resources rather than being asleep at the wheel. Also, the NRSC probably would have prioritized VA over MI this year if Gillespie had won in 2014, so it would have been a pyrrhic victory.

2014 and 2016 were really the only good years for them in the Senate (in the 2010s). They underperformed expectations in 2010 and did wayyyy worse than they should have in 2018 and especially 2012.

WV, MT, and OH will probably all flip in 2024 regardless of who’s president.

Maybe WV does if Manchin retires, but MT and OH won’t be slam dunks.

Doesn’t matter. If the GOP gets good recruits in all three states, they should start out favored. Manchin and Tester won by only 3 in the best year possible for Dems, and Brown just by 6 against an opponent who barely campaigned.

[Tekken_Guy]

The people at the NRSC also thought that Luther Strange, Martha McSally, and Patrick Morrisey were formidable candidates and that MT-SEN/OH-SEN/WV-SEN shouldn’t be prioritized because you had "strong Democratic incumbents" running for reelection there and the Republican challengers in those states were supposedly infinitely weaker than strong incumbent Heller/Rosen infinitely weaker than Tester, Manchin, and Brown.

It’s safe to say that the people at the NRSC are some of the most inept morons in the entire country. If it wasn’t for those clowns, the Senate wouldn’t even be in play in 2020 because AL/WV would have never been lost. They don’t even deserve credit for Scott picking up FL-SEN.

WV, MT, and OH will probably all flip in 2024 regardless of who’s president.

Yeah, provided republicans take these races seriously this time. You can’t be sure about that, now the good thing is that in 2024 republicans will have relatively few offensive targets as the low hanging fruits have already been taken two years ago, thus it should allow republicans to put more ressources in the three states in question

Additionally, they’ll also only have two seats they have to worry about defending: Texas and Florida. Both have good chances of being open seats because the incumbents are likely to run for President that year.

[Tekken_Guy]

The people at the NRSC also thought that Luther Strange, Martha McSally, and Patrick Morrisey were formidable candidates and that MT-SEN/OH-SEN/WV-SEN shouldn’t be prioritized because you had "strong Democratic incumbents" running for reelection there and the Republican challengers in those states were supposedly infinitely weaker than strong incumbent Heller/Rosen infinitely weaker than Tester, Manchin, and Brown.

It’s safe to say that the people at the NRSC are some of the most inept morons in the entire country. If it wasn’t for those clowns, the Senate wouldn’t even be in play in 2020 because AL/WV would have never been lost. They don’t even deserve credit for Scott picking up FL-SEN.

WV, MT, and OH will probably all flip in 2024 regardless of who’s president.

Yeah, provided republicans take these races seriously this time. You can’t be sure about that, now the good thing is that in 2024 republicans will have relatively few offensive targets as the low hanging fruits have already been taken two years ago, thus it should allow republicans to put more ressources in the three states in question

Additionally, they’ll also only have two seats they have to worry about defending: Texas and Florida. Both have good chances of being open seats because the incumbents are likely to run for President that year.

And frankly Cruz leaving his seat open would probably make it easier for us to keep it

If Cruz retires, the GOP will quickly rally behind Crenshaw. He’d do better than Cruz IMO.