GA-SEN 2020 Class III Megathread: She Who Loeffs Last

[Suburbia]

Georgia Sen. Johnny Isakson, 74, fell yesterday.

Isakson was not really in good health to begin with, I can see him pulling a Thad Cochran, resigning, Gov. Kemp appointing a GA Republican in a 2020 special with the original 2020 Senate election.

https://www.axios.com/georgia-sen-johnny-isakson-in-apartment-fall-ce5d1388-7f86-4c97-a615-e918bd53653d.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johnny_Isakson

[Suburbia]

Yeah, he's been in rough shape for a while. I think it's likely Georgia has two senate elections next year.

Democrats could win 2 Georgia Senate seats....if the cards are right.....black turnout, etc., a Harris on the ticket.

[Suburbia]

Scott Holcomb, you're up!

Holcomb is probably too white and male for Georgia Democrats.

White? x
Male? x
Heterosexual? x

[Suburbia]

My guess is that he retires in early 2021, allowing his successor some incumbency before the 2022 election

Who would Gov. KempAbrams choose?

I wonder if Kemp chooses someone, Abrams may sue him and ask for a recount?

[Suburbia]

Scott Holcomb, you're up!

Holcomb is probably too white and male for Georgia Democrats.

White? x
Male? x
Heterosexual? x

We nominate a black woman for Governor once and now we don't want white male hetero candidates? K.

Would Abrams reconsider if there is a special in 2020?

She has explicitly stated that she wants to be an executive and feels she would best serve Georgians as the Governor rather than 1 out of 100 Senators voting for stuff that may meet resistance from the GA-GOP.

There doesn't seem to be room for a white male hetero. A gay white male, probably, but not a white male hetero right now. We'll see.

[Suburbia]

This is not surprising.

More older senators should retire.

With all due respect, Dianne Feinstein should retire/resign soon.

Despite winning reelection in 2018, she looks frail.



This GA-SEN-SPEC is Lean R, like GA-SEN Perdue.

Gov. Kemp will appoint Geoff Duncan or Austin Scott.

Georgia Democrats will not want a white man to head the Senate ticket, so they may go with Keisha Lance Bottoms or some other person since Stacey Abrams is looking at a 2022 rematch or 2024.

[Suburbia]

I think Kemp will appoint Austin Scott or Karen Handel.

[Suburbia]

Loeffler is a succesful, self-made businesswoman, but you don't do this crap while you are in office.

Loeffler will probably not last long.

Collins can defeat Warnock by 2-3 points and if a Democrat wins in 2020 could probably hold on to this seat in the 2022 election. He won't have to face voters again until 2028, when demographics will be changing Georgia.

[Suburbia]

Loeffler apparently caught for insider trading.

https://twitter.com/noahshachtman/status/1240803599086731265?s=21

Honestly, this isnt good news in terms of the Senate race. Basically solidifies that Collins ( the stronger candidate) will be republican.

They're both weak General Election candidates. The GOP will slide even further in the suburbs with Collins.

If Warnock defeats any of them, it is because he turned out Atlanta black voters, Stacey Abrams' machine helped, and Biden-Harris or Biden-Demings probably won GA.

Warnock would probably lose in 2022 or 2028 to Austin Scott or Tom Graves...

[Suburbia]

Collins will win the whole thing

Loeffler is a joke, she should go back to business

[Suburbia]

Collins will win anyway

Loeffler goes back to business somewhere

[Suburbia]

Collins wins it all, but GAGOP has no good candidates to run for these positions.

Karen Handel is a ultimate white Karen, Austin Scott would have done well.

[Suburbia]

A sports owner or chairperson doesn't get rolled over by their employees or players.

That would never work with the late George Steinbrenner.

Steinbrenner made it clear, he pays the players, he could waive their contracts and cut them.

Loeffler caused this on her self, she should have stayed quiet on BLM.

[Suburbia]

https://twitter.com/robillard/status/1291763540228018178?s=21

What a terrible family

Joe Lieberman is governor material, never presidential material. Gore and McCain should have never considered him. He is Chief of Staff material.

[Suburbia]

Warnock's comments about police makes this race Likely R.

Georgia is in the south, white people love the police and a state like GA although it is demographically changing, this will be a problem.

Likely R. Collins wins.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=20&v=MljJmqV5OEw&feature=emb_title

https://twitter.com/NathanBrandWA/status/1308212219449147392?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...

[Suburbia]

Warnock's comments about police makes this race Likely R.

Georgia is in the south, white people love the police and a state like GA although it is demographically changing, this will be a problem.

Likely R. Collins wins.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=20&v=MljJmqV5OEw&feature=emb_title

https://twitter.com/NathanBrandWA/status/1308212219449147392?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...

Georgia resident here, very much doubt it. At least in the Atlanta metro area, anti police sentiment is kind of bleeding into middle and upper class whites, which makes sense if you think about it; most of them don't really interact with police officers that often on a day to day basis, and the first time a lot of them begin to see/interact meaningfully with them, it's horror story after horror story. Tear gassing protests, Rayshard Brooks, politicization by Trump, who is increasingly unpopular, etc. I can see this maybe being true in other parts of Georgia, but I'm not sure Warnock needs to care about these areas to win; all he really needs to do is replicate Stacey Abrams' map with some additional turnout.

Edit: I also feel like Loeffler is in a better position to advance than Collins, but I could be wrong, I suppose.

bronz is famously known as a troll who acts like this is 30 years ago and that Republicans can win in New Jersey with he making threads about random people.

I'm not a troll, I'm a realist. They are a lot of white rightists out there that salivating over this. The Breonna Taylor case is the icing on the cake for them. They view this as a problem that the Left has to fix because the right is so not interested.

[Suburbia]

Warnock's comments about police makes this race Likely R.

Georgia is in the south, white people love the police and a state like GA although it is demographically changing, this will be a problem.

Likely R. Collins wins.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=20&v=MljJmqV5OEw&feature=emb_title

https://twitter.com/NathanBrandWA/status/1308212219449147392?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...

Georgia resident here, very much doubt it. At least in the Atlanta metro area, anti police sentiment is kind of bleeding into middle and upper class whites, which makes sense if you think about it; most of them don't really interact with police officers that often on a day to day basis, and the first time a lot of them begin to see/interact meaningfully with them, it's horror story after horror story. Tear gassing protests, Rayshard Brooks, politicization by Trump, who is increasingly unpopular, etc. I can see this maybe being true in other parts of Georgia, but I'm not sure Warnock needs to care about these areas to win; all he really needs to do is replicate Stacey Abrams' map with some additional turnout.

Edit: I also feel like Loeffler is in a better position to advance than Collins, but I could be wrong, I suppose.

bronz is famously known as a troll who acts like this is 30 years ago and that Republicans can win in New Jersey with he making threads about random people.

I'm not a troll, I'm a realist. They are a lot of white rightists out there that salivating over this. The Breonna Taylor case is the icing on the cake for them. They view this as a problem that the Left has to fix because the right is so not interested.

OK, well this is a testable hypothesis in any case. If you're right, I'm sure we can expect the numbers of all the Democrats in the race to crater over the next month, as all these white rightists who I suppose were backing Warnock until these comments begin to jump ship.

No, a lot of disaffected rightists who were lukewarm on Collins/Loeffler will turn out more.

Biden is not winning Georgia, neither is Ossoff or Warnock.

All are Lean R.

Not under Brian Kemp's rule.

[Suburbia]

Warnock's comments about police makes this race Likely R.

Georgia is in the south, white people love the police and a state like GA although it is demographically changing, this will be a problem.

Likely R. Collins wins.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=20&v=MljJmqV5OEw&feature=emb_title

https://twitter.com/NathanBrandWA/status/1308212219449147392?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...

Yeah because gettable voters totally watch White Power Hour.

For those who want to hear "both sides", for LIV voters, sure they would watch.