🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[Mike88]

Is there a link to follow the results?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So the polls broadly speaking in the right area, except that there was more FDP > CDU than projected. Which I suppose makes sense.

[President Johnson]

Is there a link to follow the results?

https://www.tagesschau.de/wahl/archiv/2022-05-15-LT-DE-NW/

[Astatine]

Current estimates:

ZDF:
CDU 35.3
SPD 27.5
Greens 17.9
AfD 5.6
FDP 5.5
Linke 2.2

ARD:
CDU 35.9
SPD 27.1
Greens 18.1
AfD 5.6
FDP 5.3
Linke 2.0

Red-Green seems increasingly less likely, at 98-99/199 seats in both estimates as of now. Before both ARD and ZDF had SPD/Greens at 99 seats.

[Oryxslayer]

Prediction time: how many direct seats will non-Union/SPD (aka Greens) win? In 2017 that number was zero, in 2021 the Greens won 4 federal mandates from NRW.

[President Johnson]

Looks like this is going to be a CDU-Greens government. SPD-Greens won't get a majority now that the FDP is clearly in and there's no real mandate for trafficlight when the two senior parties are almost ten percentage points apart, even if NRW Greens would usually prefer the Social Democrats over CDU. It also seems to me this is the preferred coalition of the electorate. Certainly painful for my party and the chancellor, but that's the way it is.

Lower Saxony is going to look better later this year, with a popular SPD incumbent running for reelection against Bernd "Little Donald" Althusmann.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Wow, CDU now almost 10 points ahead. Pretty humiliating for the SPD - and especially for Kuschaty.

I also liked Lindner’s reaction to the FDP’s terrible result: “We should not forget that last time, when I was lead candidate, we did great...”

But, yeah, Black-Green is by far the most likely option. Merz should keep an eye on Wüst though - he could be a serious competitor by 2025.

[Oryxslayer]

Prediction time: how many direct seats will non-Union/SPD (aka Greens) win? In 2017 that number was zero, in 2021 the Greens won 4 federal mandates from NRW.

The answer appears to be 8, as well as the Cities of Aachen, Cologne, and Münster.

[Astatine]

The winners and losers of this election:

Winners
Greens. Tripled their result, will be needed for a government (unless it's a GroKo, highly unlikely) and are clearly having the momentum right now. Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck are the most popular politicians, and the Greens are occupying offices on federal level that get most attention due to the current circumstances (Foreign Affairs, Economy).

CDU. They can still win elections, even with mediocre incumbents. While the CDU-FDP coalition lost its majority (the win in 2017 was a fluke anyway), holding Germany's most populous state was not a shoo-in and they actually scored the best result in NRW since 2005. A CDU Minister-President has not been reelected in NRW since 1962 (!). Even the scandals of the last weeks (Environment Minister resigning due to being on vacation during the 2021 floods) didn't seem to have hurt the party.

Losers
FDP. Worst result since 1995, which should not be the case even without a popular candidate such as Lindner. Their defeat was a combination of federal factors (traffic light coalition not being very popular among their more center-right base) and statewide problems, especially surrounding controversial Education Minister Yvonne Gebauer. Note that occupying the Education Department in NRW is a curse, Greens halved their vote share in 2017 with then-Education Minister Sylvia Löhrmann being quite unpopular as well.

SPD. They proclaimed the Social Democratic decade last year - turns out it's a Social Democratic semester. Scholz is struggling in the polls, he doesn't get the approvals Merkel had by any means and the state party had their own internal problems such as changing the leader 3 times since 2017. Lower Saxony needs to go well, which is likely as Stephan Weil is a popular incumbent - But obtaining the worst result in NRW history should worry the Social Democrats.

AfD. Another loss (5.4%, -2.0), but they made it narrowly. The party can rely on a small but stable voter base another time. Internal fights certainly don't help.

Linke. Don't deserve an own paragraph.

Turnout. Worst turnout in history of NRW, 55%, a massive decrease from 2017. While past elections had a mixed pattern (slight decreases that could be explained with Covid, increase in the 2021 federal elections), it is worrisome that turnout fell to low pre-2016 levels once again.

[President Johnson]

One additional word on FDP: They have lost a fair amount of voters to CDU in these past elections, especially in NRW. I guess that's because a good many of them are disaffected with the party joining a coalition with SPD and Greens at the federal level. Most of them would have preferred Jamaica, I guess. It's still kinda odd because the party negotiated pretty well and has actually gotten a lot more than they deserve given the fact that we're talking about the smallest governing partner here.

Also seems Lindner (and Scholz) isn't as good as Baerbock and Habeck in explaining why he does the opposite of what he campaigned for: Greens advocating for fossil energy imports from Qatar and fracking gas from the US. Meanwhile, Lindner presides over a 200 billion euro budget deficits and needs to barrow an additional 100 billion for the Bundeswehr.

[Isaak]

Yes, Lindner is in a difficult situation right now. He had probably thought that as Minister of Finance, he would be the power behind the throne (like Schaeuble was between 2009 and 2017) and now he is doomed to watch Habeck/Baerbock getting all the attention. In retrospect, it really was a stupid decision not to insist on the Foreign Affairs ministry.

In general, hardly anyone in the FDP is happy with the traffic light coalition and its agenda so far. If the situation does not improve, there will be calls to leave it sooner rather than later.

[Octowakandi]

Yes, Lindner is in a difficult situation right now. He had probably thought that as Minister of Finance, he would be the power behind the throne (like Schaeuble was between 2009 and 2017) and now he is doomed to watch Habeck/Baerbock getting all the attention. In retrospect, it really was a stupid decision not to insist on the Foreign Affairs ministry.

In general, hardly anyone in the FDP is happy with the traffic light coalition and its agenda so far. If the situation does not improve, there will be calls to leave it sooner rather than later.

Could Scholz cobble together a coalition if that happened or would that certainly lead to new elections?

[rob in cal]

Isn't it kind of awkward for there not to be a traffic light coalition in NRW when there is one on the federal level, and there is a comfortable majority for it in NRW? Kind of implying that traffic light isn't a normal expected situation and that the federal one is just a special circumstance?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In the end this was one of those elections that surprises us with how boring it ended up being: exactly the sort of result you would expect given that the CDU are now in opposition federally, the FDP are in government with the centre-left federally but were in government with the CDU regionally (a bad place to be for a party so reliant on the votes of the politically non-aligned), and that this was the first NRW state election held after the Greens became more than a boutique party. It is, from a centre-left perspective, unfortunate and disappointing that the FDP lost just enough votes to the CDU to make a replication of the federal coalition very problematic, but such is politics sometimes. Most analysis that I've seen is either wishcasting or doomerism, rather than anything much grounded in what we actually saw.

[Astatine]

Isn't it kind of awkward for there not to be a traffic light coalition in NRW when there is one on the federal level, and there is a comfortable majority for it in NRW? Kind of implying that traffic light isn't a normal expected situation and that the federal one is just a special circumstance?

No - The times of "bloc division" (Lagerwahlkampf) where one side (CDU/FDP vs. SPD/Greens[+Linke]) attempts to form a government no matter how the other performed (exception: GroKo) are over by now. The traffic light coalition transcends classical camps, and unlike in the past, no coalition option was formally excluded in the past. Coalitions beyond blocs (CDU/Greens, Jamaica, traffic light) are done on a case by case basis and not standard by any means.

It would be horrible optics to put the two biggest losers of the election in charge in a three party coalition, which is usually less stable than a coalition consisting of two parties only.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

In the end this was one of those elections that surprises us with how boring it ended up being: exactly the sort of result you would expect given that the CDU are now in opposition federally, the FDP are in government with the centre-left federally but were in government with the CDU regionally (a bad place to be for a party so reliant on the votes of the politically non-aligned), and that this was the first NRW state election held after the Greens became more than a boutique party. It is, from a centre-left perspective, unfortunate and disappointing that the FDP lost just enough votes to the CDU to make a replication of the federal coalition very problematic, but such is politics sometimes. Most analysis that I've seen is either wishcasting or doomerism, rather than anything much grounded in what we actually saw.

If there are lessons to draw for the SPD, it's more that you shouldn't base your campaign around the assumption that everything's falling into place by itself and you just need to turn up at the count...

[Middle-aged Europe]

What was perhaps notable in both Schleswig-Holstein and NRW in this era of multiple crises with climate change, COVID pandemic, Ukraine war, the ensuing refugee crisis as well as the rampant inflation and tumbling stock markets of the past weeks is that the political fringes have become increasingly marginalized. Both the AfD and the Left are not represented in the Schleswig-Holstein state parliament and only the AfD managed to barely drag itself past the 5% threshold in NRW yesterday. People are not looking for a strongman or a populist solution right now, making it kind of reverse Weimar Republic (or depending how you look at it, an anti-France).

Part of it is maybe indeed the lessons of history, but perhaps also the fact that AfD and Left suffer under the stain of being the most pro-Putin political forces and therefore they are also regarded as the very ones who are aligned with the guy most responsible for current mess. Well, and both parties currently lack any sort of credible or remotely charismatic leadership of course (although that didn't stop the AfD in the past).

[CumbrianLefty]

In the end this was one of those elections that surprises us with how boring it ended up being: exactly the sort of result you would expect given that the CDU are now in opposition federally, the FDP are in government with the centre-left federally but were in government with the CDU regionally (a bad place to be for a party so reliant on the votes of the politically non-aligned), and that this was the first NRW state election held after the Greens became more than a boutique party. It is, from a centre-left perspective, unfortunate and disappointing that the FDP lost just enough votes to the CDU to make a replication of the federal coalition very problematic, but such is politics sometimes. Most analysis that I've seen is either wishcasting or doomerism, rather than anything much grounded in what we actually saw.

Part of this is, as is quite often the case, due to the polls getting it a bit wrong.

[JimJamUK]

Most analysis that I've seen is either wishcasting or doomerism, rather than anything much grounded in what we actually saw.

Speaking of which, has he who shall not be named commented on the recent poor performances of the AFD? I seem to remember his reaction to the 2021 federal election was grounded in the high quality empirical analysis we have come to expect.

[Isaak]

Yes, Lindner is in a difficult situation right now. He had probably thought that as Minister of Finance, he would be the power behind the throne (like Schaeuble was between 2009 and 2017) and now he is doomed to watch Habeck/Baerbock getting all the attention. In retrospect, it really was a stupid decision not to insist on the Foreign Affairs ministry.

In general, hardly anyone in the FDP is happy with the traffic light coalition and its agenda so far. If the situation does not improve, there will be calls to leave it sooner rather than later.

Could Scholz cobble together a coalition if that happened or would that certainly lead to new elections?

If it happens (still a long way to go), I see no way for Scholz to continue. There are only two possible non-FDP coalitions: Kenya/GroKo and Red-Red-Green. Merz obviously would laugh off any offer to join and I have a hard time imagining Scholz working with the Linke.

Isn't it kind of awkward for there not to be a traffic light coalition in NRW when there is one on the federal level, and there is a comfortable majority for it in NRW? Kind of implying that traffic light isn't a normal expected situation and that the federal one is just a special circumstance?

Well, it is a special circumstance. Lindner just stated very explicitly that traffic light "...is not the coalition we wanted. We only joined it because of our responsibility for the country." There is no reason for the FDP to push for a coalition that is unpopular among its own membership. And there is also no reason for the Greens to work with two losers rather than with one winner.

[Oryxslayer]

Yes, Lindner is in a difficult situation right now. He had probably thought that as Minister of Finance, he would be the power behind the throne (like Schaeuble was between 2009 and 2017) and now he is doomed to watch Habeck/Baerbock getting all the attention. In retrospect, it really was a stupid decision not to insist on the Foreign Affairs ministry.

In general, hardly anyone in the FDP is happy with the traffic light coalition and its agenda so far. If the situation does not improve, there will be calls to leave it sooner rather than later.

Could Scholz cobble together a coalition if that happened or would that certainly lead to new elections?

In case it happens (still a long way to go), I see no way for Scholz to continue. There are only two possible non-FDP coalitions: Kenya/GroKo and Red-Red-Green. Merz obviously would laugh off any offer to join and I have a hard time imagining Scholz working with the Linke.

Also, in such a hypothetical, R2G didn't win a majority of the seats in 2021, and its hard to image the (small) majority of the Bundestag letting such a government last or do anything.

[Pick Up the Phone]

SH: Surprisingly, the Greens have decided against another five years of Jamaica - “there is no common foundation for a coalition in which one of the partners is not needed.”

Sounds strange and Günther seems irritated. Now he has no choice but Black-Yellow (or Black-Green but that would be a little ridiculous).

[President Johnson]

SH: Surprisingly, the Greens have decided against another five years of Jamaica - “there is no common foundation for a coalition in which one of the partners is not needed.”

Sounds strange and Günther seems irritated. Now he has no choice but Black-Yellow (or Black-Green but that would be a little ridiculous).

I guess black-yellow may cause some backlash because it's not what people "voted for". Sure, there's a majority, but it seems to me black-green is easily preferred from the electorate.

[Pick Up the Phone]

SH: Surprisingly, the Greens have decided against another five years of Jamaica - “there is no common foundation for a coalition in which one of the partners is not needed.”

Sounds strange and Günther seems irritated. Now he has no choice but Black-Yellow (or Black-Green but that would be a little ridiculous).

I guess black-yellow may cause some backlash because it's not what people "voted for". Sure, there's a majority, but it seems to me black-green is easily preferred from the electorate.

Yes, Black-Green is the objectively better choice (and probably also favored by Günther). But it would be ridiculous to first let the Greens kick the FDP out and then reward them for it.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Oh, the irony! The most neoliberal user of Atlas, a dyed-in-the-wool apologist for Manchester capitalism and rampant globalism, chooses the absurdly utopian, socialist Greens over the materialistic, economic-liberal Free Democrats...
Nevertheless, I still assume that her fake love for the Greens is rather performative than it is material. 😏