🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[JimJamUK]

What would be the differences between the Greens going into coalition with the SPD and FDP vs continuing in coalition with the CDU?

[JimJamUK]

If this poll is borne out i guess we would almost certainly be looking at an SPD/Green coalition

Are the Saarland Greens (for want of a better term) ‘stable’ enough that to happen? Their recent troubles do not suggest a party completely ready to be in government but perhaps they’ve sorted themselves out?

[JimJamUK]

To add, Linke got 7% in the 2021 federal election with no Greens on the ballot, so it didn’t take much for them to fall under the threshold. The original Linke strength in Saarland (both personality and party appeal) has disappeared and severely diminished, respectively, leaving very little underlying support.

[JimJamUK]

Most analysis that I've seen is either wishcasting or doomerism, rather than anything much grounded in what we actually saw.

Speaking of which, has he who shall not be named commented on the recent poor performances of the AFD? I seem to remember his reaction to the 2021 federal election was grounded in the high quality empirical analysis we have come to expect.

[JimJamUK]

I'm just following German politics on the surface, but isn't the actual takeaway for the FDP that voters are dissatisfied with their role in the federal govt not because they're not visible enough, but too visible instead? It's the smallest coalition partner and prevents SPD and Gruene from passing more left-wing or center-left policies. And these 2 parties had respectable showings despite Scholz having medicore approvals it seems. Or is the FDP result just related to state issues?

The problem is that most people who vote FDP are right leaning, and they’re currently in a left leaning government. The FDP are not really influencing policy, so people happy with the government vote SPD/Green (and within that group the Greens are reaping most of the benefit, particularly thanks to their clear position on Ukraine). The FDP could make a clearer play for economic/fiscal responsibility, but that’s quite difficult to do in a serious economic crisis.

Specifically in Lower Saxony, the Greens got their national polling bounce (at least compared to 2017) while the SPD benefitted from being in charge of the state government (state incumbency is very useful in Germany) while the CDU were their junior coalition partners which hurt their ability to critique the government. The FDP national unpopularity sunk them.

[JimJamUK]

Sorry for the late response, but I think this is just more that their voter profile is shifting out of urban areas rather than any pro-AfD polling bias.

Absolutely. Urban East Germany saw the biggest swings against the AFD in 2021 along with southern Bavaria (the FW factor), and their results in urban West Germany were also noticeably poor, including in places where they didn’t have that much to lose to begin with.

[JimJamUK]

At its core, Die Linke is a nationalist party, except that the country whose national interest they put above all else doesn't exist. Of course such a party will get in trouble when SED apparatchiks, people who dreamed of being SED apparatchiks and anyone who remembers GDR start dying off. Eventually enough members of the party will come from the right side of the Wall and a transformation into a more-or-less normal left-wing party will be possible, but that's not guaranteed either. Plenty of Wessi Linke politicians (Sevim Dağdelen is the most prominent example) come off like their dream job is writing editorials for Great Purge-era Pravda.

When there are 2 other major left of centre parties to join, the small minority of Wessis who join the successor to the East German Communist Party are probably not going to hold the most mainstream of views, especially when it’s a party that has been de facto automatically excluded from power in the vast majority of state/federal elections it has contested.

[JimJamUK]

2.) the first rounds of negotiations between the SPD and CDU concluded, and the CDU has agreed to a large number of SPD demands. Like I said several weeks ago, an overlooked development this election is how the CDU moved its platform closer to the SPD. Not sure if this really had an impact on voting, but it clearly has an impact on the negotiations. Here is what has been agreed to so far:

• commitment against right-wing extremism, against any form of group-focused enmity and racism.
• set up a state naturalization center to speed up applications and processing
• the state anti-discrimination law will be retained and further developed
• focus on administrative reforms - will be further negotiated
• introduction of the voting age at 16, constitutional majorities in parliament are being explored.
• police, fire brigade, judiciary and public prosecutor's office will have full support and should be better equipped
• the findings of Giffey's summit against youth violence are to be implemented
• language day-care centers (translation?) are to be continued through a state program
• continuation of school construction focus
• no fees for education, from daycare to university
• new construction target of up to 20,000 new apartments per year; regulatory review
• improved enant protection
• socialization framework law upon a constitutional recommendation
• the "traffic turnaround" will continue with more balance for road users as well
• continue unlimited €29 transit ticket for all and a €9 social ticket
• new focus on cyclist safety
• continue goal of purchasing district heating facilities from Vattenfall and GASAG
• climate-neutral special investment fund will be established
• focus on renewing Berlin's business environment balanced with creation of good paying jobs
• the state minimum wage, higher than the federal one, will remain
• guaranteed accommodation for refugees, exploration of new housing methods
• new children's hospital

Is there an expectation that significantly more right wing policies will be announced later and/or implemented in reality, because that certainly doesn’t sound remotely poisonous for a centre left party to support?

[JimJamUK]

Breaking: Kai Wagner failed to win an outright majority on the first ballot of the mayoral election in Berlin.

71 MPs voted for him. 80 would have been necessary. CDU/SPD coalition has in theory 86.

That accounts for 15 (probable) SPD dissidents... out of 34 SPD MPs total.

But considering that 44% of the SPD caucuses' members seemed to have refused to vote for him on the first ballot that puts the viability of the CDU/SPD coalition a bit in doubt.

Christ, you might expect a few dissenters but for almost half your Parliamentary party to ignore the instruction of both the leadership and the membership is ridiculous. Why are so many of them doing this? It hardly suggests plain sailing for the duration of the government.

[JimJamUK]

German posters - would it be fair to say that the AfD would be polling a fair bit higher in Bavaria were it not for the existence of FW as a viable option, or are their voting bases too distinct for that to be the case?

Not a German poster but absolutely they would. There was a very clear trend in the 2021 federal election where the AFD made major losses which were heavily correlated with the rise of FW support. The latter are a less controversial right wing protest vote option, so it make sense.

[JimJamUK]

LINKE Bundestag member Thomas Lutze has officially left the LINKE and its parliamentary group and joined the SPD. I would think, it has much to do with the intra-party infighting in the Saarland state party. Connected to this there have been several allegations of fraud etc. over the years. Btw, the SPD of the Saarland did not want him, so he joined the Berlin state party.

Hopefully Dietmar Bartsch is next. He's often a voice for reason and would fit into the SPD's left wing. The government has now 417 seats and SPD 207, ten more than the Union.

What’s the expected ideology of a post-Wagenknecht Linke? Are the moderates potentially leaving because they regard it as too extreme or because it’s a sinking ship?

[JimJamUK]

...aaaaaand it's the SPD. Thus marks the end of the first CDU-Green state government in Germany after 10 years.

Apparently migration was the biggest motivation, not only at the state level, but also potential Bundesrat votes and policy for the federal government. Rhein is the chair of the State Minister's Conference and has approached Scholz with tougher rules around asylum and refugees, and does not want the Greens to potentially undermine him.

Agriculture policy was also a major source of contention, since farmers have been protesting in Hessen. The CDU said that the SPD has accomodated them on all areas during the exploratory talks.

What have the SPD got in return?

[JimJamUK]

Are there any indications of how tight a ship Wagenknecht will run? It strikes me as the sort of party that could attract a few ‘oddballs’ or at the very least an ideologically diverse crowd of candidates, so it’s not guaranteed that all those elected for the party will stay loyal to the agreed position on policy, government formation etc, which would pose problems for stable government if reliant on the BSW.