NH-SEN 2022 Megathread: General Dysfunction

[Morning in Atlas]

I'm still going to go bold and put this at Lean D. With Roe v. Wade in the spotlight his abortion record will come into full view.

[MargieCat]

https://twitter.com/NewHampJournal/status/1435631869962358784

As someone with no legislating experience and no legal background, he is going to be in for a rude awakening if he makes it into the senate. It sounds like he thinks it is going to be a cakewalk compared to being a governor.

[Devils30]

I'm still going to go bold and put this at Lean D. With Roe v. Wade in the spotlight his abortion record will come into full view.

I think a lot of his hesitancy stems from concern that Roe would affect him much more than other R's. It is not an ideal state for the GOP if the Supreme Court really does overturn.

[TML]

https://twitter.com/NewHampJournal/status/1435631869962358784

Uhhhhh, not sure "send me to Washington so I don't have to work as hard" is a winning message to come out of the gate with.

This may sound worse than Bullock's 2020 campaign - at least Bullock specified a tangible purpose in his campaign (i.e. making Washington work more like his home state) once he changed his mind after previously refusing to run. Here, I suspect it may be easier to paint Sununu as lacking the desire to become a Senator than Bullock.

[Morning in Atlas]

I'm still going to go bold and put this at Lean D. With Roe v. Wade in the spotlight his abortion record will come into full view.

I think a lot of his hesitancy stems from concern that Roe would affect him much more than other R's. It is not an ideal state for the GOP if the Supreme Court really does overturn.

You'd be right - it does affect him. Sununu has already banned abortion, even in cases of rape/incest.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sununu or Laxalt aren't winning by nine pts anyways, I know users are trying to write this state off, but this isn't 2016 anymore

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/HenryJGomez/status/1438551022306222092

I don't think Trump will be able to swing this primary, but it'll be hilarious if he does.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Sununu isn't nominated it's Safe D

[MT Treasurer]

Hot take NH senate is Likely Republican with Sununu but on top of that I believe dems have a better shot to win the governors race in NH than senate in 2022.

Not too hot imo, I'd say it's Lean R, but if Sununu runs and the national environment is even somewhat R leaning, let me just say I think Democrats would have a better shot at PA and possibly NC and FL. If the national environment is neutral, I'd still say Lean R, and even in that case, inelastic states like FL and NC can do weird things. Also yeah they obviously have a very good chance of winning a Governor's race when the only possible credible Republican would be Kelly Ayotte.

There's not a chance in hell that Democrats flip Florida before they hold New Hampshire.

There’s also not a chance in hell that Democrats flip North Carolina before they hold New Hampshire (even PA is a real stretch). This is meme posting on par with "IA replaces NC as tipping-point race in the Senate" from 2020.

[America Needs R'hllor]

https://twitter.com/HenryJGomez/status/1438551022306222092
I don't think Trump will be able to swing this primary, but it'll be hilarious if he does.

The TRUMP Bolduc is very CONSERVATIVE and TOO PATRIOTIC. Don't vote for him!

[President Johnson]

Well, it wouldn't be the first time Trump gets Democrats a candidate much easier to defeat. Go ahead, God Emperor!

[Pollster]

Obviously not an endorsement (and even a Trump endorsement probably wouldn't be enough to place Bolduc on top on its own), but if Sununu gave up the governorship only to lose this Senate primary, it would be by far the funniest thing to happen in politics in a good long time.

[CityofSinners]

Obviously not an endorsement (and even a Trump endorsement probably wouldn't be enough to place Bolduc on top on its own), but if Sununu gave up the governorship only to lose this Senate primary, it would be by far the funniest thing to happen in politics in a good long time.

Funniest thing since Delaware senate primary in 2010. Are we sure Bolduc is not a warlock?

[MATTROSE94]

Well, it wouldn't be the first time Trump gets Democrats a candidate much easier to defeat. Go ahead, God Emperor!

Chris Sununu is pretty Trumpy and does have the backing of Mitch McConnell and Rick Scott unfortunately. I expect him and Adam Laxalt to both win fairly easily (probably by around 5-10%) in the general election.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Chris Sununu leads in one poll by nine pts and most of the polls were all within the margin of error, he hasn't been scrutinized yet by Hassan, let's wait until the campaign begins, he's not a shoe in

Another poll had him only leading by one pt

[S019]

Chris Sununu leads in one poll by nine pts and most of the polls were all within the margin of error, he hasn't been scrutinized yet by Hassan, let's wait until the campaign begins, he's not a shoe in

Another poll had him only leading by one pt

Assuming that the undecideds heavily lean Hassan is a large mistake, 2022, according to all signs that we have right now, will be a red leaning year, in such a year, undecideds tend to break for the party with the better national environment, in this case, the Republicans. The chances of a sizable Republican win here with either Sununu or Ayotte are quite underrated, obviously not 2010 style, but I can easily see 6-7 points or even more.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hassan trailed Ayotte until Election day and she won on Election night, I expected Hassan to lose but put it on my 2016 map as a Hassan to win

NH is elastic that way, same with NV Jacky Rosen and SISOLAK were trailing Heller and Laxalt until they won on Election night, that's that why CCM maybe trailing but they're not down by 9 pts most is 3(5 pts

We need another poll, all the other polls showed not nine pts on NH, but 3/5 pt leads for SUNUNU, that nine pt poll was inflated

Go back over the polls in the database you're gonna see Ayotte leading Hassan and she won Election night, I expect Hassan to win and replicate the 304 blue wall

[MATTROSE94]

Hassan trailed Ayotte until Election day and she won on Election night, I expected Hassan to lose but put it on my 2016 map as a Hassan to win

NH is elastic that way, same with NV Jacky Rosen and SISOLAK were trailing Heller and Laxalt until they won on Election night, that's that why CCM maybe trailing but they're not down by 9 pts most is 3(5 pts

We need another poll, all the other polls showed not nine pts on NH, but 3/5 pt leads for SUNUNU, that nine pt poll was inflated

Go back over the polls in the database you're gonna see Ayotte leading Hassan and she won Election night, I expect Hassan to win and replicate the 304 blue wall

Maggie Hassan ain’t winning reelection. Even if 2022 was a Trump midterm, both she and Catherine Cortez Masto would have been obliterated by Chris Sununu and Adam Laxalt.

[Pericles]

Please Republicans, give us this seat and perhaps the majority again!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hassan trailed Ayotte until Election day and she won on Election night, I expected Hassan to lose but put it on my 2016 map as a Hassan to win

NH is elastic that way, same with NV Jacky Rosen and SISOLAK were trailing Heller and Laxalt until they won on Election night, that's that why CCM maybe trailing but they're not down by 9 pts most is 3(5 pts

We need another poll, all the other polls showed not nine pts on NH, but 3/5 pt leads for SUNUNU, that nine pt poll was inflated

Go back over the polls in the database you're gonna see Ayotte leading Hassan and she won Election night, I expect Hassan to win and replicate the 304 blue wall

Maggie Hassan ain’t winning reelection. Even if 2022 was a Trump midterm, both she and Catherine Cortez Masto would have been obliterated by Chris Sununu and Adam Laxalt.

Sununu and Laxalt aren't up 10, it was inflated all the other polls had it much closer

They haven't been releasing polls either, they showed one nine pt lead poll for both and the Rs run with it, a mnth ago

[MT Treasurer]

Civiqs Biden Approval by State:

National: 41/51 (-10)

AZ: 39/54 (-15)
GA: 37/55 (-18)
PA: 40/52 (-12)
NV: 42/50 (-8)
NH: 45/48 (-3)

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_biden?annotations=true&uncertainty=true&zoomIn=true

Obviously these are inflated (in favor of Republicans) and ought to be treated with caution (like every other poll), but this should give the people who think that NH is by far the easiest flip for the GOP or the difference between a R-controlled and a D-controlled Senate at least some pause. Hassan might be a "weak incumbent" and Sununu a "strong candidate," but that only gets you so far in a Biden +7 state which leans strongly to the left in federal races. Even with Sununu running, I’d rather bet on AZ than NH as the easiest pick-up opportunity for the GOP, and GA/NV flipping before NH is not at all out of the question either. Irrespective of this 50-state poll, I’ve never really understood why the conventional wisdom is so bullish on Republicans in NH and bearish on their chances in NV/AZ/PA.

I’m also in complete agreement with OC (!) - it’s fairly likely that that Sununu +8 poll was indeed an outlier, and he’s right that Ayotte was consistently polling better than Johnson/Toomey in the months leading up to the 2016 election. This was also one of the few states where polling did not underestimate R strength at the federal level in 2020 (even while doing so virtually everywhere else, including in states where it traditionally underestimated Democrats, e.g. NV/AZ/TX).

NH is just an extremely difficult state for the GOP, and blue state partisanship will make this race very tough even with everything else going in the party's favor.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Civiqs Biden Approval by State:

National: 41/51 (-10)

AZ: 39/54 (-15)
GA: 37/55 (-18)
PA: 40/52 (-12)
NV: 42/50 (-8)
NH: 45/48 (-3)

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_biden?annotations=true&uncertainty=true&zoomIn=true

Obviously these are inflated (in favor of Republicans) and ought to be treated with caution (like every other poll), but this should give the people who think that NH is by far the easiest flip for the GOP or the difference between a R-controlled and a D-controlled Senate at least some pause. Hassan might be a "weak incumbent" and Sununu a "strong candidate," but that only gets you so far in a Biden +7 state which leans strongly to the left in federal races. Even with Sununu running, I’d rather bet on AZ than NH as the easiest pick-up opportunity for the GOP, and GA/NV flipping before NH is not at all out of the question either. Irrespective of this 50-state poll, I’ve never really understood why the conventional wisdom is so bullish on Republicans in NH and bearish on their chances in NV/AZ/PA.

I’m also in complete agreement with OC (!) - it’s fairly likely that that Sununu +8 poll was indeed an outlier, and he’s right that Ayotte was consistently polling better than Johnson/Toomey in the months leading up to the 2016 election. This was also one of the few states where polling did not underestimate R strength at the federal level in 2020 (even while doing so virtually everywhere else, including in states where it traditionally underestimated Democrats, e.g. NV/AZ/TX).

NH is just an extremely difficult state for the GOP, and blue state partisanship will make this race very tough even with everything else going in the party's favor.

Hassan is a great closer she was trailing Ayotte because Sununu won the 2016 and she came back and won just remember that and Rosen was trailing Heller and so was SISOLAK with Laxalt

It's 14 mnths before rte Election..Biden is at 50/48 Approvals in the Fox news poll and Rs haven't lead outside of NH and NV I. A single Blue wall state

The last polls in AZ, GA, PA and WI show that D's were leading and Rs are down 5 pts in VA and got crushed in Cali Recall

[wbrocks67]

Morning Consult has the audacity to post a poll that has dates for *JUNE 18* TO *SEPTEMBER 16*

https://twitter.com/cameron_easley/status/1439635638719025152

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol in the last poll Sununu was at 49% he is Doug Christie before the Scandal, at 49% he can be beaten and every poll aside from plus nine poll has it within margin of error

It's a competetive race, but it's not the Gov race where Sununu was blowing out all the candidates 60/40

Just like OH isn't a sure bet for Rs either Tim Ryan is leading Vance and Down 4 to Mandel, OH, NH, NV, GA and AZ are gonna go down to wire

Beasley hurt herself by endorsing Filibuster and DeSantis is very popular in FL since he handled Surfside well, he still gets a bump with Rubio for handling the crisis well
.Cuban Embargo on FL helps Rubio

The reason why DeSantis almost lost in 2018/ he ran with Scott not RUBIO

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ChrisRyan603/status/1439916535712296964?s=20

Apply bullet to ones own foot.