2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

[Senator Incitatus]

Vance is overperforming with ED vote and is only expanding his lead. Dolan has to do EXTREMELY well in election day vote to potentially win.

People saw Dolan's surge in the polls and—although his was admittedly bigger—completely ignored that Vance was also surging at the same time.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1521651670270283778
Dave calls it

[MillennialModerate]

I think this race is Likely Vance at this moment

The most obvious statement of the night.

Anyone who thinks Dolan had a shot is taking a high dose of something fun

[Brother Jonathan]

Vance is overperforming with ED vote and is only expanding his lead. Dolan has to do EXTREMELY well in election day vote to potentially win.

People saw Dolan surge in the polls and—although his was admittedly bigger—completely ignored that Vance was also surging at the same time.

Personally, I just found the Dolan growth more interesting since it seemed to come out of nowhere (though I am sure there are reasons I just don't know about). Vance got the Trump endorsement, so his growth is easier to explain. Vance probably wins since the sort of pro-Trump base voters (who probably tend to be more likely to be election day voters as opposed to early voters anyway) probably coalesced around him following the endorsement, after fluctuating between Vance and Mandel.

[Senator Incitatus]

Vance is overperforming with ED vote and is only expanding his lead. Dolan has to do EXTREMELY well in election day vote to potentially win.

People saw Dolan surge in the polls and—although his was admittedly bigger—completely ignored that Vance was also surging at the same time.

Personally, I just found the Dolan growth more interesting since it seemed to come out of nowhere (though I am sure there are reasons I just don't know about). Vance got the Trump endorsement, so his growth is easier to explain. Vance probably wins since the sort of pro-Trump base voters (who probably tend to be more likely to be election day voters as opposed to early voters anyway) probably coalesced around him following the endorsement, after fluctuating between Vance and Mandel.

I wonder if we'll see a consistent trend of more moderate candidates doing well in Republican early vote given how demonized mail-in and early voting has become after 2020.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1521651670270283778
Dave calls it

Seems I was right.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I predicted a Dolan victory, betting on the polling surge.
Could I be right?
EDIT: Unlikely.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

He's probably right, but this seems premature

[DrScholl]

Dolan is in third. He's not winning this.

[LAB-LIB]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1521646721910153216?cxt=HHwWgIC90bXo_J0qAA...
Vote for Houchin now, you can vote for Sodrel anytime!

[Senator Incitatus]

Looks like Dolan's vote was early-heavy. Now trailing big in Dayton. I expect his small Cincinnati lead will evaporate similarly. A few more big Vance dumps like this and Wasserman will be confirmed. Looks like he's going to break 30%.

[Brother Jonathan]

Looks like Dolan's vote was early-heavy. Now trailing big in Dayton. I expect his small Cincinnati lead will evaporate similarly. A few more dumps like this and Wasserman will be confirmed.

Seems like DeWine also performed better with the early vote.

[Minnesota Mike]

Yeah this is over. I still expect Dolan to close a little but it's over. The good news is Vance looks like a weak GE candidate.

[Senator Incitatus]

I'm hearing Dave Wasserman has confirmed it will be a White Boy Summer.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling IN-1 R for Green
Calling IN-7 R for Grabovsky

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Looks like Dolan's vote was early-heavy. Now trailing big in Dayton. I expect his small Cincinnati lead will evaporate similarly. A few more big Vance dumps like this and Wasserman will be confirmed. Looks like he's going to break 30%.

Well, it depends on what parts of HamCo and MontCo are out.  

[Brother Jonathan]

A New York Times reporter is talking about meeting Dolan-inclined voters in the parking lot of a suburban Cleveland Whole Foods. That should dispel any lingering optimism about his chances.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Yeah this is over. I still expect Dolan to close a little but it's over. The good news is Vance looks like a weak GE candidate.

The delusion is hilarious.

Safe R.

[Aurelius]

[Wasserman tweet]

A few candidates have lost this way: Luther Strange, Russ Fagg, Nick Freitas.

I think Mr. Fagg lost for a very specific reason. Sometimes you need to change your name to do well in politics.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling IN-9 R for Houchin!

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling OH-SEN R for Vance!
Calling OH-11 D for Brown!

I have not called:

IN-5 D
OH-4 D
OH-5 D
OH-6 D
OH-7 D
OH-9 R
OH-10 D
OH-11 R
OH-12 D
OH-13 R

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Vance is leading by 17 in Trumbull.

Dominating in these Obama-Trump counties.

[GeorgiaModerate]

So J.D. Mandel didn't win, huh?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

So J.D. Mandel didn't win, huh?

Nope

[Huey Long is a Republican]

Vance is leading by 17 in Trumbull.

Dominating in these Obama-Trump counties.

The polls didn't look at Appalachia and WWC areas. Instead they considered the College Educated Bush-Romney Coalition was the main GOP Coalition. Hopefully this forces the polls to change their regional polling from now on.