Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

“Perot stole the election from Bush” is a myth. The 92 exit poll found that Perot voters would have split 50-50 between Bush and Clinton if he weren’t on the ballot. The fact is that Bush’s approval was in the 30s, the recession was technically over but the recovery in employment didn’t really pick up until 93. And it’s just incredibly hard for a party to win the presidency four times in a row.

Part of me would've loved to have been politically aware (or...alive, even) during America Decides '92.  Seems like such an interesting and unique election. 

Were you politically aware for 2000? That was a hoot and a half. I was seven and remember it to an extent.

I was....what? Four years old?  So no specific memories of the 2000 election. 

But anyway, I digress -- I'm pulling this thread off the rails. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

“Perot stole the election from Bush” is a myth. The 92 exit poll found that Perot voters would have split 50-50 between Bush and Clinton if he weren’t on the ballot. The fact is that Bush’s approval was in the 30s, the recession was technically over but the recovery in employment didn’t really pick up until 93. And it’s just incredibly hard for a party to win the presidency four times in a row.

Part of me would've loved to have been politically aware (or...alive, even) during America Decides '92.  Seems like such an interesting and unique election. 

I turned 7 that year. It was the first election I remember a lot of.

I would've just wanted to see Ross Perot and his charts....

I remember the Capitol Steps had a guy back then who did a dead-on Perot...he was hilarious.  (Actually, the whole group is hilarious; if you're not familiar with them, check out https://www.capsteps.com/.)

[pbrower2a]

Kansas: PPP, April 13-14, 1271 voters

Approve 52
Disapprove 43

Weak. Very weak for a Presidential nominee, especially an incumbent, in Kansas.

Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

If you are trying to assess President Trump's chances on a state-by-state basis, I always felt you should make your entire map code one shade less red, specifically to put states where his disapproval is under 50% but still exceeds his approval rating in the white area indicating an effective tie.

That is much more accurate to his chances as, as 2016 demonstrated, a significant number of Voters will disapprove of trump but still ultimately vote for him anyway as the lesser of two evils. Your current color coding is accurate as being too Trump friendly, IMHO

This would be valid if one expected President Trump to succeed this time as he did in 2016 by so debasing the political discourse that  people who might otherwise vote against Trump would find politics so soiling that they would stay out of the election. That is ugly, but he has never steered away from debasing things precious to the rest of us. He may not get away with that this time.

I'm trying to figure whether match-ups or approval-disapproval is more relevant now, and it may depend upon what sticks more strongly should they not coincide. We have never had a President like Trump. We have also never had an ongoing catastrophe killing Americans as if it were a bungled war.

I see states in which I used to expect Trump approval in the high 50's or even low 60's going near 50%... in states that Trump won by 10% or more in 2016.

Is President Trump in a one-way collapse? Can he recover? Wait and see.

Not so long ago I would have handicapped the Presidential race as roughly 260 sure electoral votes against Trump and plenty of ways for him to lose, with the possibility of a 375-EV win for the Democratic challenger. Ordinarily such a range of possibilities narrows as the general election approaches while the middle of the range stays put.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Firehouse Strategies/Optimus, April 7-14, 857 adults including 732 LV

Adults:

Approve 42
Disapprove 58

Biden 46, Trump 32

GCB: D 40, R 28


RV:

Approve 46
Disapprove 54

Biden 54, Trump 42

GCB: D 47, R 35


A dire poll for Trump from an R-leaning pollster.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Pew Research, April 7-12, 4917 adults (1-month change)

Approve 44 (-1)
Disapprove 53 (+1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Change Research, April 13-15, 1349 LV

Approve 44
Disapprove 56

Biden 50, Trump 40

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult, April 14-16, 1992 RV

Approve 43
Disapprove 54

Strongly approve 24
Strongly disapprove 40

Biden 47, Trump 43

With Justin Amash as the Libertarian candidate:

Biden 46, Trump 42, Amash 1

[Progressive Pessimist]

“Perot stole the election from Bush” is a myth. The 92 exit poll found that Perot voters would have split 50-50 between Bush and Clinton if he weren’t on the ballot. The fact is that Bush’s approval was in the 30s, the recession was technically over but the recovery in employment didn’t really pick up until 93. And it’s just incredibly hard for a party to win the presidency four times in a row.

Part of me would've loved to have been politically aware (or...alive, even) during America Decides '92.  Seems like such an interesting and unique election. 

Were you politically aware for 2000? That was a hoot and a half. I was seven and remember it to an extent.

I was....what? Four years old?  So no specific memories of the 2000 election. 

But anyway, I digress -- I'm pulling this thread off the rails. 

You also succeeded at making me feel ancient.

[pbrower2a]

Approval-disapproval numbers are certainly going the wrong way for the President... and fast. There seems to be plenty of time, but to have a chance the President must reverse this trend, and fast.

[Brittain33]

“Perot stole the election from Bush” is a myth. The 92 exit poll found that Perot voters would have split 50-50 between Bush and Clinton if he weren’t on the ballot. The fact is that Bush’s approval was in the 30s, the recession was technically over but the recovery in employment didn’t really pick up until 93. And it’s just incredibly hard for a party to win the presidency four times in a row.

Part of me would've loved to have been politically aware (or...alive, even) during America Decides '92.  Seems like such an interesting and unique election.  

I was 16 and it was the first election I paid close attention to, not being old enough to remember a Democratic President. I stayed up to watch the election results and went to bed after Ohio was called for Clinton and he was declared the winner. At the time, I knew so little about Congress that I couldn't understand why any Republicans still won House seats. I experienced it as a great upwelling of hope and excitement that was completely smashed by the reality of the first two years and then '94.

[Virginiá]

Approval-disapproval numbers are certainly going the wrong way for the President... and fast. There seems to be plenty of time, but to have a chance the President must reverse this trend, and fast.

Honestly, I'll be amazed if he isn't back to his mid-late 2017 numbers by October. That would be some next-level resiliency to go through a pandemic and crippling recession bordering on depression with little impact on his approval ratings. Especially so since a fairly strong narrative is building that he spent the critical first two months doing nothing but downplaying the threat, ignoring the warnings signs and even at one point calling it the new hoax.

[emailking]

'92 I was barely politically aware, it's the first election where I understood what was happening. 3 candidates didn't seem strange to me at the time, especially when it happened again in '96. 2000 was definitely the most interesting election, at least after election day. I didn't even go to bed that night. We didn't know for a month what was going to happen!

[pbrower2a]

Approval-disapproval numbers are certainly going the wrong way for the President... and fast. There seems to be plenty of time, but to have a chance the President must reverse this trend, and fast.

Honestly, I'll be amazed if he isn't back to his mid-late 2017 numbers by October. That would be some next-level resiliency to go through a pandemic and crippling recession bordering on depression with little impact on his approval ratings. Especially so since a fairly strong narrative is building that he spent the critical first two months doing nothing but downplaying the threat, ignoring the warnings signs and even at one point calling it the new hoax.

We all recognize President Trump as unique in the American political heritage. There are no obvious rules. America has never before had so blatant a demagogue become President, so analogies are to elsewhere for his personality. He is more like the late Hugo Chavez than like Dwight Eisenhower in style, berating elites (in Chavez' case, economic; in Trump's case, intellectual), Can Trump succeed? He certainly has generated much hatred for him.

Trump succeeded in part in 2016 by debasing the political discourse, finding the mental gutter in America. I expect him to do much the same this year because such is his character. He numbed millions of Americans in the right places to his vileness as a person while attacking his opponent for modest or controversial shortcomings. Besides, if he is close to getting re-elected, then the super-rich Americans who believe that the rest of Humanity exists only as their rightful thralls will open the spigots to support both direct and through front groups. Should he be an abject failure, then those super-rich Americans will not waste their money this time; they will be back on the scene when they have more of a chance. On the other hand such people dream of an America in which workers are serfs whose lives are expendable if such makes command-and-control of a fascistic style possible. I see such American elites no better than those German elites who backed Hitler because Hitler promised to crush industrial unions and the dissidence among farm laborers. As events showed, those backers had no qualms about using slave labor and treating it with brutality that would have made a Simon Legree cringe.

I have no residual illusion that people are better because they are too rich and powerful to be swine. I have no remaining belief in any exceptionalism about America whose basis is any moral culture or religious heritage.

[Badger]

“Perot stole the election from Bush” is a myth. The 92 exit poll found that Perot voters would have split 50-50 between Bush and Clinton if he weren’t on the ballot. The fact is that Bush’s approval was in the 30s, the recession was technically over but the recovery in employment didn’t really pick up until 93. And it’s just incredibly hard for a party to win the presidency four times in a row.

Actually, most Ross Perot voters would have gone for Clinton according to the polls. Not by an overwhelming majority, but tangibly at least

[wbrocks67]

ABC/Ipsos

"Do you approve or disapprove of the way Trump is handling the virus?"

March 11-12: 43/54 (-11)
March 18-19: 55/43 (+12)
April 1-2: 47/52 (-5)
April 8-9: 44/55 (-11)
April 15-16: 44/54 (-10)

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/country-grows-pessimistic-return-normalcy-post-coronavirus-poll/story?id=70194349&cid=social_twitter_abcn

[Podgy the Bear]

ABC/Ipsos

"Do you approve or disapprove of the way Trump is handling the virus?"

March 11-12: 43/54 (-11)
March 18-19: 55/43 (+12)
April 1-2: 47/52 (-5)
April 8-9: 44/55 (-11)
April 15-16: 44/54 (-10)

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/country-grows-pessimistic-return-normalcy-post-coronavirus-poll/story?id=70194349&cid=social_twitter_abcn

This is an economic crisis that none of us living have seen, and it will last. 

Over the past month, reality is sinking in for those 12 percent in which we saw the bump. 

The other 43 percent will remain delusional to the end.  Just like Germany in spring 1945 when millions of their citizens still thought they could win the war.

[Brittain33]

ABC/Ipsos

"Do you approve or disapprove of the way Trump is handling the virus?"

March 11-12: 43/54 (-11)
March 18-19: 55/43 (+12)
April 1-2: 47/52 (-5)
April 8-9: 44/55 (-11)
April 15-16: 44/54 (-10)

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/country-grows-pessimistic-return-normalcy-post-coronavirus-poll/story?id=70194349&cid=social_twitter_abcn

This is an economic crisis that none of us living have seen, and it will last. 

Over the past month, reality is sinking in for those 12 percent in which we saw the bump. 

The other 43 percent will remain delusional to the end.  Just like Germany in spring 1945 when millions of their citizens still thought they could win the war.

I remember reading about German civilians avowing in 1945 that Hitler was going to unveil his secret weapon at the last moment and turn the tide against the Russians. I didn't understand how people could be so delusional. Now I know.

[wbrocks67]

Yep, unfortunately, there is always going to be ~40% that will remain delusional.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/JoshDorner/status/1251128284735254528

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

[American2020]

Yep, unfortunately, there is always going to be ~40% that will remain delusional.

It's a cult of personnality like we saw in Fascist Italy, Nazi Germany and in the USSR.
Trump is a guru of a sect.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1251208971547021313

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1251210087001178113

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1251210647821586438

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1251211161514790912

[American2020]

It's the economy, stupid


https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1251213881499885574

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1251215384218415104

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1251218583797063686

[Progressive Pessimist]

ABC/Ipsos

"Do you approve or disapprove of the way Trump is handling the virus?"

March 11-12: 43/54 (-11)
March 18-19: 55/43 (+12)
April 1-2: 47/52 (-5)
April 8-9: 44/55 (-11)
April 15-16: 44/54 (-10)

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/country-grows-pessimistic-return-normalcy-post-coronavirus-poll/story?id=70194349&cid=social_twitter_abcn

That's what I like to see! Ideally his approval would be at zero though.

[wbrocks67]

For what it's worth, his approval has collapsed on the MSN tracker

4/11: 42/52 (-10)
4/14: 40/55 (-15)
4/15: 39/56 (-17)
4/16: 39/57 (-18)

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/elections-2020/polls