🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Polkergeist]

And... another day, another two polls with the SPD leading. Now with multiple pollsters having basically the same numbers confirms the state of the race as of now: The Union is stuck in the 20-22% range while the SPD is around 25%. The Greens are probably around 15-18% at this point.

If this is the election outcome the government formation calculus seems to be what of the following the FDP value more:

1. Government concessions from the SPD and Greens for a traffic light coalition

2. Any more votes they could gain from the Greens or SPD if they are part of the RRG coalition. They might also fancy their chances with getting some support from the CDU if the latter moves right in opposition.

[Jackson Lee]

Wahl Test:

I had SPD, Greens at over 70.

[President Johnson]

Scholz’s preferred chancellor leads are insane. When are the attacks going to start coming?

They've started already, they just don't seem to be very effective. Laschet has repeatedly attacked Scholz for not explicitly stating that he would not enter a coalition with the Linke. The Union has tried to portray Scholz as a closeted leftist OR as someone who would invite leftists into the government OR as someone who is secretly controlled by the leftists within the SPD. So far, few have found that convincing.

Yeah, but even Deputy Chair and member of the left wing Kevin Kühnert gave a rhetorically strong response to CDU General Secretary Ziemiak the other day on Live TV. "Do you really think Olaf Scholz - I repeat Olaf Scholz - is running through the Reichstag with a red flag?"

I'm glad neither the Wirecard issue nor Cum-Ex had stuck with him. Although nothing is proven, it could have put the campaign in trouble. Baerbock would have been under more scrutiny in the same position I guess. She was definitely not treated fairly with her missteps.

[CumbrianLefty]

Interesting that Scholz is proving a bit Teflon-y. Might not have been the case only a year or two ago.

[Jackson Lee]

When is the next debate?

Is there an elephant roundtable, as they call it in Germany?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elefantenrunde

[Blair]

Of course using the Wahl O Mat I got 84% for the Greens, 73% for Die Linke & 71% for the SDP.

I think it's coming from the weird part of the Labour party which is generally very pro-migrant, quite radical on the environment but equally relatively anti-Russia & China on foreign policy.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Wahl O Mat Results

75.6% FDP

74.4% AfD

59.8% CDU/CSU

32.9% SPD

20.7% Greens

20.7% Die Linke

[President Johnson]

And another poll:

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1434250525114052613


Scholz is also starting to draw large crowds in recent days at different locations, like here in Göttingen:

https://twitter.com/OlafScholz/status/1434178398369288192

[Geoffrey Howe]

Interesting article in Spiegel International:

Olaf Scholz Aims to Succeed Merkel By Emulating Her

He said the turning point would likely come in August, when people returned from vacation and began thinking about who they would like to see replace Chancellor Angela Merkel once she leaves office. The obvious answer, Scholz believes, is that the want someone like Merkel. Him, in other words. He has always been convinced of that – with an iron confidence that seemed almost quixotic in the face of depressing poll numbers. For the time being, though, it appears he might be right.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Finally took the Wahl-O-Mat test using google translate.

Greens: 87%
Linke: 84%
SPD: 66%
FDP: 43%
CDU/CSU: 38%
AfD: 23%

[Battista Minola 1616]

According to Wahl-O-Mat, I am *checks notes* somehow a left-wing Catholic conservative

[image]

A bit late, but I profusely apologize for hacking your device while taking the test.

On the other hand I wonder who is hacking mine, because I keep getting the Greens higher than the SPD and I don't particularly like that...

[President Johnson]

The SPD continues to surge, now at 26%, up one point from two days before. As voting by mail is already under way and expected to be nearly half of all ballots cast in the end, I'd really be worried as CDU/CSU. But definitely well deserved, as the party doesn't stand for anything and their campaign as a mess. This goes well beyond Laschet's weakness and even Söder will be damaged with these results as this points to a weak performance by the CSU as well. A result of 20-22% would be an absolute earthquake and just half of the vote in 2013. Who would have thought this is possible?

Meanwhile, Scholz is drawing larger crowds than anyone would have expected, even got over 2,000 people in Leipzig, Saxony, which isn't a Social Democratic bastion. And the party is more united than ever. Maybe he lost the 2019 leadership race for good, as Esken and NoWaBo are keeping the party's left wing very happy.

And lastly, looks like Baerbock is essentially out of the contest for the chancellorship, though she has good chances to become vice chancellor and foreign minister in any cabinet involving her party. She'd be a solid choice for the job in my opinion. Better than empty suit Heiko Maas (and I'm saying this as proud SPD member).

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1434889642244022272

[parochial boy]

I must say I've been enjoying Rezo's videos. Even better if they drive the Union down another couple of points.

[Astatine]

I must say I've been enjoying Rezo's videos. Even better if they drive the Union down another couple of points.

Doubtful. The overwhelming majority of his audience wouldn't have voted for CDU/CSU anyway.

[parochial boy]

I must say I've been enjoying Rezo's videos. Even better if they drive the Union down another couple of points.

Doubtful. The overwhelming majority of his audience wouldn't have voted for CDU/CSU anyway.

More to the point would be them reaching people who wouldn't have voted at all anyway. And they've been getting enough attention to be reaching people beyond the normal youtuber-teeny crowd as well.

[Astatine]

I must say I've been enjoying Rezo's videos. Even better if they drive the Union down another couple of points.

Doubtful. The overwhelming majority of his audience wouldn't have voted for CDU/CSU anyway.

More to the point would be them reaching people who wouldn't have voted at all anyway. And they've been getting enough attention to be reaching people beyond the normal youtuber-teeny crowd as well.

In the European Elections, which have generally been received with far less attention than federal elections, that might have and likely was the case. CDU/CSU's disastrous and out-of-touch response to the video probably cost them the 30 % mark.

Nevertheless, I feel like in this election the effect of his videos on the outcome of this election are negligible. CDU/CSU's of... being passive this time makes far less harm than public discussions over how to react and publishing a PDF.

Their campaign gets derailed by other factors.

[parochial boy]

I must say I've been enjoying Rezo's videos. Even better if they drive the Union down another couple of points.

Doubtful. The overwhelming majority of his audience wouldn't have voted for CDU/CSU anyway.

More to the point would be them reaching people who wouldn't have voted at all anyway. And they've been getting enough attention to be reaching people beyond the normal youtuber-teeny crowd as well.

In the European Elections, which have generally been received with far less attention than federal elections, that might have and likely was the case. CDU/CSU's disastrous and out-of-touch response to the video probably cost them the 30 % mark.

Nevertheless, I feel like in this election the effect of his videos on the outcome of this election are negligible. CDU/CSU's of... being passive this time makes far less harm than public discussions over how to react and publishing a PDF.

Their campaign gets derailed by other factors.

Well yeah, the 2019 came out of the blue and these ones not so much. But, then again, how many votes do you win from sticking up a poster of yourself in an open necked shirt or hanging around pedestrian zones handing out haribos (which sounds rather creepy, ahem)? That still doesn't stop candidates from doing so, and feeling that it is worthwhile doing so.

Most people aren't influenced into voting by one thing - even if Laschet laughing or whatever could be pinpointed as the very start of a trend, it was a continuation of many other things that kept that movement up. In that respect, a video coming out and picking up 5+ million views, that drives forward the narrative about the incompetence, or the double standards on the climate crisis may be one factor among many. But it is still a factor that is going to be relevant, in this case as part of the decision making process that someone might go through about whether to send their ballot back in or not.

[Astatine]

Economy Minister Peter Altmaier has been admitted to ICU, condition unclear. Apparently he had trouble finding words during a meeting of the Economy Committee, and didn't feel well.

Whatever it is, I hope he makes a speedy recovery.

[Flyersfan232]

Extremely happy that SDP is going to win this. The Germans are making the right choice, punishing corrupt and elitarian boring politicians like Baerbock and Laschet, and going for someone competent, pragmatic and caring as Scholz. I certainly support SDP even if i didn't like them during most of my life.

the election didnt happened yet

[Flyersfan232]

Whoa, an actual SPD victory would be a good sign for the center-left in all of Europe, wouldn't it? Just not sure whether that lasts to late Sept. when the election is held.

Scholzy's pronouncements so far seem to indicate that he is still signed up to the debt break and the EU fiscal stability pact (even, if - maybe - that's just playing to the audience). So in so far as the best practical thing for the wider European centre-left would be a reform of the EU's fiscal and monetary rules, then it doesn't seem especially likely, no.

I dare say that the overall picture for left of centre politics isn't as grim now as it was a couple of years ago, and a German SPD government would be a big symbolic win, rebalance the forces at the European level and so on - but the PVDA and the PS aren't going to come back from the dead just because their German sister party found someone competent to run for chancellor.

what about austria?

[Flyersfan232]

Latin America, Europe, the US…the political right is in shambles .

italy and spain say hi

[Flyersfan232]

Latin America, Europe, the US…the political right is in shambles .

Australia, India, Israel, Canada, Poland, France, Britain, the Netherlands, Italy, Ecuador, Colombia, most of Eastern Europe? And even the US isn't really a valid example, with Biden double digits underwater. It's rather strange to try and paint some global picture when Germany, Chile, Brazil, Argentina, Spain?, and New Zealand are the only examples of such a trend, and a good number of those countries are the result of left wing parties (ie the Greens) moving right.

??
I have absolutely no idea what criteria are you using, for both sides. But in any case, I think you are treating that comment way too seriously.

Australia -- Liberals won in 2019 unexpectedly. Not in disarray.

Canada -- Conservatives leading in polls

Colombia -- Conservative government/dominance for last 30 years

And Argentina and Spain I said were places where the right was in disarray, not places where it wasn't.

are the right leading in polls in spain though?

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Latin America, Europe, the US…the political right is in shambles .

Australia, India, Israel, Canada, Poland, France, Britain, the Netherlands, Italy, Ecuador, Colombia, most of Eastern Europe? And even the US isn't really a valid example, with Biden double digits underwater. It's rather strange to try and paint some global picture when Germany, Chile, Brazil, Argentina, Spain?, and New Zealand are the only examples of such a trend, and a good number of those countries are the result of left wing parties (ie the Greens) moving right.

??
I have absolutely no idea what criteria are you using, for both sides. But in any case, I think you are treating that comment way too seriously.

Australia -- Liberals won in 2019 unexpectedly. Not in disarray.

Canada -- Conservatives leading in polls

Colombia -- Conservative government/dominance for last 30 years

And Argentina and Spain I said were places where the right was in disarray, not places where it wasn't.

are the right leading in polls in spain though?

yes due to collapse of C's.

PP + Vox = 45% (with C's maybe 50%)
PSOE + Podemos = 35% (with Mas Pais maybe 40%).
Others are minor/regional parties at the moment.

[Flyersfan232]

any update on the free voters this campagin

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

GMS poll of Bavaria (changes from last election):

CSU 29 (-10)
Green 18 (+8)
SPD 15 (=)
FDP 13 (+3)
AfD 10 (-2)
FW 6 (+3)
SED 3 (-3)
Others 6 (+1)

I mean, what can you even say?