🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Geoffrey Howe]

A good example of why First Past the Post is a better system.

[Geoffrey Howe]

A good example of why First Past the Post is a better system.

Dk man, I wouldn't want to live under a system where a party gets 77 % of the seats with 33 % of the vote.

Needless to say, if the Bundestag were purely FPTP the voting patterns would be very different.

[Geoffrey Howe]

A good example of why First Past the Post is a better system.

I really wouldn’t say that our cursed electoral system is in any way better than Germany’s - their governments have been far more stable than ours over the last few years! (And that’s before you even consider the fairness/democratic aspect.)

I don't think the electoral system has been the main reason for that - forgive me if I'm wrong, but it strikes me that in Germany there is quite a lot of consensus on the major issues/broad direction of the country. We were able to call an election 2019 to resolve much of that (something which wouldn't have been possible if we had a codified constitution with the FTPA, though that's a slightly different matter). If there were an issue like Brexit splitting Germany in half, I don't think the system would deal that well with it - just look at what small factions/parties (notably the Northern Irish) were able to do and scale that up to a German system with six "important" parties. Importantly, the voters were able to make a clear break with the past in 2019 (albeit by voting for the same party) which is not possible in a system which makes it difficult to vote a government out. Aside from usually unstable hung parliaments, you know you're going to get a Labour/Tory government in the UK. Who knows what strange coalition will come out of the German election? If I vote Labour I can be reasonably confident I'm voting for a Labour government*, whereas if I voted SPD in 2017 (or now?), how do I know whether they're going to go into government with the right (CDU) or far-left (Linke)?

*The SNP makes this difficult, but that's sort of a "break" in the FPTP system.

[Geoffrey Howe]

I don’t want to veer this thread off-topic and turn it into a debate on electoral systems, so all I will say for now is that your post seems to be neglecting the important fact that a majority of British voters did not want a Tory government in 2019 (and in fact a greater number voted for nominally-pro second referendum parties).

I'll leave it here by saying that it's rather difficult to get >50% to support any party, and an electoral system has to deal with this fact while tending to produce stable governments. If Lib Dem voters had cared enough about blocking the Tories, they could have voted differently...

[Geoffrey Howe]

But isn't that partly because a PR system encourages consensus while a FPTO one encourages more adversarial politics?

No? A PR system encourages factionalism and fracture. I'm not knowledgeable about German political culture, but it seems to me that one of the main reasons for the above is simply that Germany is doing well as a country. Anyway, FPTP requires you to form broad church parties.

This isn't really the place to discuss the merits of PR though.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Interesting article in Spiegel International:

Olaf Scholz Aims to Succeed Merkel By Emulating Her

He said the turning point would likely come in August, when people returned from vacation and began thinking about who they would like to see replace Chancellor Angela Merkel once she leaves office. The obvious answer, Scholz believes, is that the want someone like Merkel. Him, in other words. He has always been convinced of that – with an iron confidence that seemed almost quixotic in the face of depressing poll numbers. For the time being, though, it appears he might be right.

[Geoffrey Howe]

If (and it is an if) the FDP can extract significant concessions on taxation and so forth in a traffic light coalition, wouldn't that demonstrate their worth to the base? From that perspective entering into coalition with the SPD rather than than the Union may be better for the FDP.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Lindner says the Greens and FDP should first hold discussions together about the third partner. Could be big news.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Seems notable that the Union map is now essentially the same as a Zentrum map from the inter war years. Or a map of Catholicism.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Best Union result (on the list) was not in Bavaria but Lower Saxony: Clopenburg-Vechta with 38.4%. That's less than the CDU's national result in 2013.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Perhaps the person who posts them...

[Geoffrey Howe]

Looking at that, one area where the Union seems to have held up pretty well is the wealthy surrounds of Munich.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Tagesspiegel did an interesting analysis of the election results in Berlin.

https://interaktiv.tagesspiegel.de/lab/abgeordnetenhauswahl-berlin-2021-karte-ergebnisse-wahlkreisergebnisse-stimmbezirke-ost-west-s-bahn-ring/

According to the analysis, Berlin can not only be divided politically in the former eastern and western parts of the Cold War, but also in the areas inside and outside of the Berlin Ringbahn ("Circle Railway") that surrounds the more central parts of city:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berlin_Ringbahn
 
In fact, the political division seems to be even greater when you separate the city by Ringbahn instead of the East/West distinction.

The housing referendum results are probably the most useful for getting a binary "split" of the city.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Some politicial observers already say trafficlight might be the better option of the FDP and some of their leading figures secretly prefer it. A red-green-yellow government would allow the Free Democrats to occupy the centrist or pro-business/solid budgets lane that otherwise the Union would do and pose as a "corrective" for SPD and Greens when it comes to economic growth. CDU/CSU may find themselves in further misery as they would seem more or less obsolete. Their "competence values" in polls have already massively declined when it comes to economic policy.

Also, Lindner isn't stupid and can read polls. In the most recent ZDF survey, even most FDP voters now prefer that option and think it more stands for renewal to saving Laschet into a Jamaica coalition.

Yes, the FDP could have a chance to prove their worth in an SPD coalition by preventing many leftist policies. That is far more electorally valuable than propping up a tired an unpopular CDU. It might give them more importance on the right vis-à-vis the Union which is essentially what they should want.

[Geoffrey Howe]

The FDP's result in Saxony vis-à-vis the rest of the East sticks out there.