Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[pbrower2a]

University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll
(4/16-4/22; 1392 RVs)
Texas:

Biden:
44% Approve
46% Disapprove
11% No opinion

Crosstabs

Tilt R Texas in 2024.

I wish...

The Republicans absolutely, positively must win the electoral votes of Texas in 2024 to win the Presidency.

2020:

That would be 303 D, 235 R.

Now take away the states that voted for Biden by less than 3% (or for that matter by less than 7%, as there were no states in that range:

...and the Democrat is stuck with only 226 electoral votes.  Texas puts the Democrat at 266, which is itself short of a win.

As a practical matter, any state in yellow would still put the Democrat over the top. It is hard to see any way in which any Republican could lose Texas but still win every state in yellow. Those states are different enough in politics and demographics that aside from electioneering that successfully wins a landslide (which would of course lock down Texas' 40 electoral votes) at least one of those would still go D. And then one might still have to sweat  Florida and North Carolina.  Texas is has demographics somewhat similar to a composite of Arizona and Georgia.

     

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll
(4/16-4/22; 1392 RVs)
Texas:

Biden:
44% Approve
46% Disapprove
11% No opinion

Crosstabs

Tilt R Texas in 2024.

I wish...

The Republicans absolutely, positively must win the electoral votes of Texas in 2024 to win the Presidency.

Obviously, Covid gets Eradicated in 2024 not 2022 D's will win have an 8 pt Election and win TX

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

OH is gonna be close, it was an 8 pt state but Trump and Boehner isn't there Ryan was tied in a PPP I change my mind, OH can swing D, and if Jeff Jackson is nominated not Beasley we can win NC too

We must look out for IA too if Sand runs for Gov or Senator

[pbrower2a]

OH is gonna be close, it was an 8 pt state but Trump and Boehner isn't there Ryan was tied in a PPP I change my mind, OH can swing D, and if Jeff Jackson is nominated not Beasley we can win NC too

We must look out for IA too if Sand runs for Gov or Senator

COVID-19 may have aided Trump in 2020 by ensuring that Democrats did not do their usual last-hours canvassing for votes in some states. This is especially so with a state with an aging population such as Ohio full of retirees who might ask for a ride to the polls.

The Trump campaign was much more competent than the level of performance that one would expect from the  Trump Presidency. It was less scared of going out to get the vote... with canvassers and potential voters alike being subjected to the risk of contracting an infection by COVID-19. Trump is much more ruthless than the usual American pol, which shows in his business practices. Ru8thlessness is often an excellent tactic for winning.

Two elections do not prove a trend. Ohio has typically been close in Presidential elections. If you want other examples of this rule, then look at the Eisenhower wins of Massachusetts, Minnesota, and Rhode Island in 1952 and 1956. Ike won all three states twice, and he was the last Republican to win all three states since 1924 and none of them since 1932. Republican nominees for President have won only five times since (Nixon MN and RI in 1972, Reagan MA in 1980, and Reagan MA and RI in 1984). Note that Ike won a raft of states that had gone reliably for FDR and Truman between 1932 and 1948 but that would go R in all Presidential campaigns except for 1964.  Three losses in a row, each getting worse? When Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Tennessee, and West Virginia all went against Obama by 10% or more I was fully convinced that these states which had once been wins for Bill Clinton were in no way available to Democrats in Presidential elections.

As for 2024 -- I expect the Democrats to exploit the insurrection of January 6 as fully as possible to the detriment of any Republican who did not condemn it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Along with AZ, OH was the only state to split voting in 2018, I expect DeWine to win, OH isn't gonna elect a female Whaley Gov, the next female Gov is Molly Kelly in NH.  Brown is all in for Ryan, because if Ryan loses, Brown can lose too, in 2024

But Tim Ryan, Joe Cunningham, can certainly win and Sand if he runs for Gov or Senator can win in IA.

Brown, Ryan, Sand, Cunningham all have WC appeal and so does Charlie Crist

In a D plus 5 Environment there will be split voting. It happens all the time with House races split voting for Govs and Senate, that's why we still have a member in IA and have Reynolds and Ernst's as Gov and Sen

NC split in 2020 between Gov Koop and Sen Tillis.

Trump created an Insurrectionists the R brand is very polarizing

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah as wave insurence seats OH, NC and IA D's have not a zero chance but 1/3 chance because the Covid Recession is ending and the Economy is coming back

We can wind up with 230 seats in the H and 55 Senate seats when the Economy comes all the way back before Nov 2022

[GeorgiaModerate]

AP/NORC, April 29-May 3, 1842 adults (1-month change)

Approve 63 (+2)
Disapprove 36 (-2)

Strongly approve 34 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 25 (nc)

Also, 54% say the country is moving in the right direction vs 44% who say it's on the wrong track.  This is the first time in at least four years this has been above water (last month was tied 50-50).

[Horus]

Just 10 months ago 80% of the country thought we were on the wrong track. What an amazing turnaround. Biden's steady, boring hand is exactly what we need after the countless disasters of the past four years.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1391512709787701252

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1391512709787701252

AP/NORC, April 29-May 3, 1842 adults (1-month change)

Approve 63 (+2)
Disapprove 36 (-2)

Strongly approve 34 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 25 (nc)

Also, 54% say the country is moving in the right direction vs 44% who say it's on the wrong track.  This is the first time in at least four years this has been above water (last month was tied 50-50).

These are "Ike" numbers. Solve seemingly intractable problems, and you get re-elected in a landslide. Was the GOP going to break?

[Person Man]

According to 538, he's at +15.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Harris has had him at 60% approval for the past, like, four polls they've released.

[President Johnson]

Americans love Uncle Joe!

[Brittain33]

Strongly approve 34 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 25 (nc)

So weird not to look at this number solely to see if strongly disapprove is 2x strongly approve, or not quite.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

,2024 Prez threads, Rs are going bananas over defeating Biden in 2024, everyone loves Joe because everyone got 2K cheques plus Unemployment benefits stimulus. There might another coming says Warren in Sept, particularly Economic Recovery

That was not right that Newsom gave 600, bonuses to only those that worked, Steyer WOULDNT have done that, gave it to everyone
No
Like I said before there is gonna be split vote between IA, MO, OH and NC we lead on Generic ballot anyways, there is frequent split voting between State Legislature and Gov


We won the PVI by.6 in 2008/2012 with Biden against McCain, that's how we are gonna keep H
Ryan/DeWine, Rubio/Crist and Scott/Cunningham

[Tender Branson]

Biden quite popular in UT:

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1391512709787701252

AP/NORC, April 29-May 3, 1842 adults (1-month change)

Approve 63 (+2)
Disapprove 36 (-2)

Strongly approve 34 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 25 (nc)

Also, 54% say the country is moving in the right direction vs 44% who say it's on the wrong track.  This is the first time in at least four years this has been above water (last month was tied 50-50).

These are "Ike" numbers. Solve seemingly intractable problems, and you get re-elected in a landslide. Was the GOP going to break?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1954_United_States_elections

[Progressive Pessimist]

AP/NORC, April 29-May 3, 1842 adults (1-month change)

Approve 63 (+2)
Disapprove 36 (-2)

Strongly approve 34 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 25 (nc)

Also, 54% say the country is moving in the right direction vs 44% who say it's on the wrong track.  This is the first time in at least four years this has been above water (last month was tied 50-50).

If accurate, and if it holds up until 2024, this is probably the most important, underrated, aspect of how our presidential elections end up.

As for the Eisenhower comparison, he should probably be re-elected by as much as Eisenhower did, even this early, but the times are much different and I still believe that his ceiling is 318 electoral votes (his 2020 map plus North Carolina). Though if he faces Trump again that would make the comparison all the more uncanny in facing a rematch.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I'm surprised you guys still trust polls so much after how badly they were off in Nov 2020

[soundchaser]

I'm surprised you guys still trust polls so much after how badly they were off in Nov 2020

I’m surprised you guys don’t inherently trust polls 100% after how spot-on they were in Jan 2021.

See how easy this is?

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm surprised you guys still trust polls so much after how badly they were off in Nov 2020

Surprised to see someone from Georgia saying that.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'm surprised you guys still trust polls so much after how badly they were off in Nov 2020

They were off because Trump improved before Election day, but went back down to a 40% Prez, after Insurrectionists
 If the Election happened in Jan like Rs lost GA, Trump would have lost in a landslide

We don't have a full blown Recovery yet, and Covid will be over by 2022 before Election day

Conservatives think the Election is today or tomorrow, it's not, it's 500 DAYS FROM NOW. Rs and D's received 2K and 300 on Unemployment and Warren says we are gonna get more in Sept

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1391512709787701252

America loves Mashed Potato Joe. I am getting a 1996 feeling about the 2024 election.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's funny how users get extended benefits and Stimulus cheques and they are naysay on D's chances.  All on CSPAN voters call in even in red states and say they are voting D in 2022 since they got stimulus.

Some users on this forum are getting 300 extra in unemployment and some of them are Rs, guess what if Warnock and Ossoff hadn't won their benefits would have been cut.

I watch CSPAN, not Fox news and they tell the truth on R voters, that's why Biden has a 60% Approvals

[pbrower2a]

I'm surprised you guys still trust polls so much after how badly they were off in Nov 2020

Some of us have our own models of how approval connects to electoral results.

The model that I have suggests that the bulk of voting activity is on Election Day and that Democrats go all out to convince undecided voters in the last month or so before the election. Well, COVID-19 got in the way of that, and Republicans had no problems in last-minute vote drives even if those put canvassers and potential voters at risk of the disease. Republicans decisively won the Election Day result, which was unusual. Republicans got huge early leads in the margin in Michigan and Pennsylvania that did not evaporate until the expanded early vote, especially concentrated in the Detroit and Philadelphia metro areas, got counted last.

The model badly fit reality in 2000. It might fit reality better in 2024.