Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[VAR]

Michigan - Market Resource Group, March 15-18, 610 likely voters, MoE: 4%

Approve 50%
Disapprove 41%

[pbrower2a]

Michigan - Market Resource Group, March 15-18, 610 likely voters, MoE: 4%

Approve 50%
Disapprove 41%

Are you missing something?  The link is to a national poll that has only one connection to Michigan, and that is an add promoting gambling on-line in Michigan. You may have the wrong link. This is a national poll connecting to American Research Group.


Biden job approval, nationally

mo..year....App..Dis...Undecided

Mar 2021   60%   34%   6%
Feb 2021   58%   34%   8%
Donald Trump:
Jan 2021   30%   66%   4%
Dec 2020   41%   56%   3%
Nov 2020   41%   55%   4%
Oct 2020   35%   60%   5%

These numbers tell a story. As late as October many Democrats saw a wave election that would ravage the GOP. Trump had the late surge because he actually held mass rallies... you know, damn the viruses, full speed ahead!  Polls in November and December reflect President Trump's loss, and the January poll (presumably after the Putsch) suggest that President Trump lost all credibility.

Trump of course had good cause to leave the White House before the scary exorcists Champ and Major (Joe Biden's dogs) would come in. Dogs see right through people, and if they figure that you are up to no good, then you are in danger of a severe mauling. OK, so much for the dog jokes...  President Biden seems to be close to an inverse of Trump approval about now. I'm not going to say that that will hold. 

Michigan is close to the national average in political orientation, so I would expect Michigan to have similar approval and disapproval numbers for President Biden as polling numbers show nationwide.   

[VAR]

*snip*

Yeah, here’s the actual link to the poll.

https://www.mrgmi.com/2021/03/23/mrg-michigan-poll-state-of-the-state-of-public-opinion-4/

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Obama's honeymoon lasted through May and then I remember by mid-summer you started seeing these really scary Tea Party crowds crashing town halls and just going nuts. If Biden's actually doing well or if it's a honeymoon we won't really know until the fall though.

With Obama people expected a swift recovery, but got one of the slowest.

This time, not only ordinary people, but all the economists etc expect a one of the swiftest ones. And, I think, most ordinary Americans actually underestimate the power of vaccine.

That is, Biden is in a much better position and people has lower expectations of him.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Whitmer is gonna be Reelected, the wrong track is a direct contrast to the You Gov poll that most believe we are on the right track

As long as there is Covid which the Feds can't do anything about but contain it, there is gonna be discontent, but the election is 600 days

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, March 20-23, 1500 adults including 1267 RV

Adults:

Approve 50 (-3)
Disapprove 41 (+4)

Strongly approve 28 (-4)
Strongly disapprove 31 (+3)

RV:

Approve 51 (-4)
Disapprove 43 (+2)

Strongly approve 31 (-5)
Strongly disapprove 35 (+3)

This poll has been bouncy the last few weeks.

[wbrocks67]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, March 20-23, 1500 adults including 1267 RV

Adults:

Approve 50 (-3)
Disapprove 41 (+4)

Strongly approve 28 (-4)
Strongly disapprove 31 (+3)

RV:

Approve 51 (-4)
Disapprove 43 (+2)

Strongly approve 31 (-5)
Strongly disapprove 35 (+3)

This poll has been bouncy the last few weeks.

Yeah this appears to be a more R sample. Kamala's favorability went from like +4/5 to -6 in a week.

[Lief 🗽]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, March 20-23, 1500 adults including 1267 RV

Adults:

Approve 50 (-3)
Disapprove 41 (+4)

Strongly approve 28 (-4)
Strongly disapprove 31 (+3)

RV:

Approve 51 (-4)
Disapprove 43 (+2)

Strongly approve 31 (-5)
Strongly disapprove 35 (+3)

This poll has been bouncy the last few weeks.

The falling down the stairs anti-bump 👀

[sting in the rafters]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, March 20-23, 1500 adults including 1267 RV

Adults:

Approve 50 (-3)
Disapprove 41 (+4)

Strongly approve 28 (-4)
Strongly disapprove 31 (+3)

RV:

Approve 51 (-4)
Disapprove 43 (+2)

Strongly approve 31 (-5)
Strongly disapprove 35 (+3)

This poll has been bouncy the last few weeks.

What's key is his approval remains above 45% with independents and over 60% with moderates. Assuming Ds and Rs come home at election time, that's enough to get Ds to 50+1% in a general.

[VAR]

Echelon Insights, March 15-21, 1,008 registered voters

Approve 51%
Disapprove 44%

Favorables:

Biden: 52/43 (+9)
Harris: 49/42 (+7)
Democratic Party: 44/47 (-3)
Trump: 39/55 (-16)
Pelosi: 35/51 (-16)
Republican Party: 34/55 (-21)
DeSantis: 23/23 (=)
Cuomo: 17/60 (-43)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump remains polarizing as I suspect, DeSantis only beat a Dem socialist, he isn't gonna beat Biden and hopefully Crist can mount a good campaign against DeSantis next yr

[President Johnson]

Echelon Insights, March 15-21, 1,008 registered voters

Approve 51%
Disapprove 44%

Favorables:

Biden: 52/43 (+9)
Harris: 49/42 (+7)
Democratic Party: 44/47 (-3)
Trump: 39/55 (-16)
Pelosi: 35/51 (-16)
Republican Party: 34/55 (-21)
DeSantis: 23/23 (=)
Cuomo: 17/60 (-43)

Lmao

[pbrower2a]

Pennsylvania, Republicans only.


https://susquehannapolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Toplines-PAStatewide-GOPGubernatorial-PublicRelease.pdf

 Q8. Former President Donald Trump?
1. Favorable 203 83%
2. Unfavorable 50 12%
3. No Opinion 19 05%

Yuck! Of course, many people have left the Republican Party of Pennsylvania after the Capitol Putsch, most likely about that. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Pennsylvania, Republicans only.


https://susquehannapolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Toplines-PAStatewide-GOPGubernatorial-PublicRelease.pdf

 Q8. Former President Donald Trump?
1. Favorable 203 83%
2. Unfavorable 50 12%
3. No Opinion 19 05%

Yuck! Of course, many people have left the Republican Party of Pennsylvania after the Capitol Putsch, most likely about that. 

I think they need a new calculator.  Those raw numbers don't match those percentages. 

203/50/19 should be 75%/18%/7%.

[pbrower2a]

Pennsylvania, Republicans only.


https://susquehannapolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Toplines-PAStatewide-GOPGubernatorial-PublicRelease.pdf

 Q8. Former President Donald Trump?
1. Favorable 203 83%
2. Unfavorable 50 12%
3. No Opinion 19 05%

Yuck! Of course, many people have left the Republican Party of Pennsylvania after the Capitol Putsch, most likely about that. 

I think they need a new calculator.  Those raw numbers don't match those percentages. 

203/50/19 should be 75%/18%/7%.

I almost never fact-check for calculations, figuring that those are so basic that nobody with a college education, complete or in progress, could make those.

Figuring that the January Putsch is not going to look better with time, the image of Trump is likely to get even worse than what he had at the time of the 2020 election. Many Republicans have left the GOP because of Trump. They would likely go into some other conservative Party rather than vote for Trump.

Only 272 registered voters of 700 were polled beyond a question of partisan identity, of course all of them were Republicans.  That's roughly 74.6% among Republicans alone. To get 350 of 700 with 'favorability' as a proxy for saying "I would vote for Trump", one would need 147 voters among the other 428, or about 32.7% of the Democratic and Independent vote crossing over. That is unlikely.   

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Approval map is too Fav red towards D's, D's aren't gonna win TX

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Approval map is too Fav red towards D's, D's aren't gonna win TX

Is it just me or do you switch between being insanely bullish on Democrats (Ohio going blue in 2024 for example yesterday) and having average predictions every few days?

It's helpful to think of his opinions moving in a random walk.

[pbrower2a]

The Approval map is too Fav red towards D's, D's aren't gonna win TX

As I recall it was a 1% margin. The 5% terracing of colors makes too much significance of the difference between 15% and 40% and too little of the difference between 1% and 4%, which is a huge difference as a predictor of electoral results. .

[VAR]

New Hampshire - University of New Hampshire, March 18-22, 1744 registered voters, MoE: 2.3%

Approve 53% (nc)
Disapprove 45% (nc)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Approval map is too Fav red towards D's, D's aren't gonna win TX

Is it just me or do you switch between being insanely bullish on Democrats (Ohio going blue in 2024 for example yesterday) and having average predictions every few days?

.Even D's are frustrated that we are still stuck with Covid and blame the person in the WH for problems

But my track record is clear of all the endorsements I made

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well it looks like these polls are correct DeSantis is now tied at 45, he is on track to lose

He only beat a Socialisic AA in Gillium, that's not a big deal

[pbrower2a]

Michigan - Market Resource Group, March 15-18, 610 likely voters, MoE: 4%

Approve 50%
Disapprove 41%

(the poll connected elsewhere, and a correct link has been made available ).

*snip*

Yeah, here’s the actual link to the poll.

https://www.mrgmi.com/2021/03/23/mrg-michigan-poll-state-of-the-state-of-public-opinion-4/

It doesn't change the color. The color for Michigan is rather pale, but note well: a gap of 9% approval and disapproval is a big margin under most circumstances, and it is much bigger than the narrow margin (just under 3% of the Biden win in 2020. The map does not really change for this.

New Hampshire - University of New Hampshire, March 18-22, 1744 registered voters, MoE: 2.3%

Approve 53% (nc)
Disapprove 45% (nc)

https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1641&context=survey_center_polls

Not all that surprising. New Hampshire has had low ceilings and high floors for both Parties and their pols for a very long time. Joe Biden can win this state by 5% in a close election, but for him to win it in 2024 by 10% or so he will need a D blowout. That would be about 400 electoral votes.

An 8% positive gap between approval and disapproval is good at any stage for so polarized a state.  

Approval of handling COVID-19: Biden 60-38 in March. It was  42-58 for Trump in January.

More on former President Trump:

1. According to this pollster he never had higher favorability than approval, although he got close twice, in the spring of 2019 and the spring of 2020. Those were not the right times for being nearly even, let alone above, in favorability.

2. It is now at 37-55. I don't have the numbers for October and November 2020 around Election Day, but the negative gap in New Hampshire was large enough to suggest that Trump had no real chance to win the Granite State in 2020. It is even worse now after his claims that he and his supporters have been cheated. To go further on this is to rehash the overall election, which is no longer relevant in this discussion which seems to point more to 2024 than back to 2000.

3. Speaking of 2024, New Hampshire voters by an overwhelming majority think that the Republican Party (59-37%) believe that Republicans would be wise to move away at the least from the personality of Donald Trump. Only 2% of Democrats and only 34% of Independents think that Republicans would be wise to stick with Trump. But 74% of Republicans apparently have no problem with Trump as their Party's leader.

If I were a conservative Republican, I would recognize that the Democrats know something that the majority of 'my' Party don't know. Getting 74% of 45% of the population, 34% of 10% of the population, and 2% of 45% of the population suggests about 42% of the vote overall, which is close to "Mondale 1984" territory. Americans have tended to live in partisan echo chambers, so it is easy to see that Republicans who still live in an echo chamber in which the can't imagine anyone voting against Donald Trump and his concept of America unless a traitor.

It may take a smashing defeat for Republicans in New Hampshire and elsewhere to recognize how toxic Donald Trump is.  But he is that.  

4. 66% of Republicans want Trump to run for President in 2024. Only a microscopic 1% of Democrats do, and a small 22% of Independents. That is very low for Democrats who might have cause to see Trump as an easy person to defeat. I have suggested that Trump might go down to a landslide defeat and take a raft of Republican elected officials down with him in 2024...

I'm sure that plenty of Republicans would have been delighted to have Dukakis winning the Democratic nomination in 1992 or Mondale winning the Democratic nomination in either 1992 or 1996. Neither was a menacing figure and had lost big. Trump is a mencing to Democrats for what he did after the election.

5. It is a long time (just over 42 months) to the 2024 election). If nothing happens between now and 2024 except that Joe Biden chooses to run for a second term, then the overall map suggests that President Biden will be re-elected solidly. Assuming that nothing important happens between now and November 2024 is a huge assumption devoid of justification. If I saw polling numbers like this in March 2024 as shown for about a third of the states as on this map I would see President Biden as a shoo-in. But this is March 2021 and not March 2024. (By the way -- the pale pink shade for Texas is effectively a tie). Biden has a distinct lead in a favorability poll in Pennsylvania, so that leaves little opening for any Republican. I do not show favorability ratings for genuine swing states, but I can discuss them to the extent that I see them relevant. 

6. So much about one small state? New Hampshire gets so treated very often because it is relevant far beyond its region.

Key:

30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+

50% green shade: tie

30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+


It is approval ratings, and not favorability ratings. Favorability ratings are relevant when they are blatant  (as in states that are not close and usually do not get polled, like New York Rhode Island or Oklahoma) because the states rarely decide an election, but they always must defer to approval. Would I use a favorability rating for Illinois? Sure. Wisconsin? Absolutely not.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden said today if the Rs don't make the gains that they are supposed to make 15/30 House seats and net the Senate there might not be an R party anymore. They will be the pernament minority with DC Statehood

[GeorgiaModerate]

Redfield & Wilton, March 21-22, 1500 RV

Approve 53
Disapprove 35

Strongly approve 28
Strongly disapprove 26

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), March 24-25, 1005 adults

Approve 53 (-6)
Disapprove 41 (+6)

This poll has been very bouncy lately.  Last four weeks:

3/4: 58/35
3/11: 54/39
3/18: 59/35
3/25: 53/41