2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread
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Author Topic: 2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread  (Read 624396 times)
Xing
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« Reply #2000 on: November 03, 2020, 07:31:08 PM »
Yeah, Trump probably narrowly wins Florida (despite doing worse in a lot of areas outside of Miami), but losing Florida isn't the end for Biden, not by a longshot.
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anthonyjg
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« Reply #2001 on: November 03, 2020, 07:31:10 PM »
Yeah Florida looks kinda rough but the NYT Needle is trash
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forsythvoter
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« Reply #2002 on: November 03, 2020, 07:31:10 PM »
FL is actually looking decent for Biden. Outside of MD, Biden is getting good swings in the I-4 corridor. And even if Trump squeaks out FL, this is a good sign for Biden in other states.

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The Free North
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« Reply #2003 on: November 03, 2020, 07:31:10 PM »
Looks like an early 4-5% swing in Palm Beach to Biden from 2016
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #2004 on: November 03, 2020, 07:31:11 PM »
What is CNN smoking? Even in this pandemic, West Virginia should have been a call for Trump when the polls closed.
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super6646
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« Reply #2005 on: November 03, 2020, 07:31:11 PM »
West Virginia too early to call...

Jesus Christ cnn
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Pericles
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« Reply #2006 on: November 03, 2020, 07:31:30 PM »
Sumter is good but not great.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #2007 on: November 03, 2020, 07:31:35 PM »

Right here. Maybe we lose FL, we still win so don’t start gloating yet.
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roxas11
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« Reply #2008 on: November 03, 2020, 07:31:50 PM »
Quote from: AncestralDemocrat. on November 03, 2020, 07:29:49 PM
So... Trump's improvement amongst hispanics is real.

the problem for trump is that Biden improvement amongst white voters and seniors is also real
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seb_pard
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« Reply #2009 on: November 03, 2020, 07:31:51 PM »
My comment about the the Chilean referendum in Miami. Important: Latinos in Florida are very different from the rest of the US

Quote from: seb_pard on October 26, 2020, 11:02:41 AM
Another fact: Approve won in the US with 62.9%. The only part reject victory was in Miami (it reached 64.6% there). By any means I want to extrapolate but I have a theory that Latinos living in Miami (not only Cubans) are different from the rest. They are more upper class and invest a lot in real estate. Those people are more attracted to Trump and that is why I believe there is a strong possibility of Trump winning Florida despite a national swing to Biden (and a Biden EC victory).
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #2010 on: November 03, 2020, 07:31:54 PM »
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Storr
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« Reply #2011 on: November 03, 2020, 07:31:58 PM »
PALM BEACH DUMP!! 76% in 60.3 Biden - 39.2 Trump. In 2016 56.2% Hilary - 40.9% Trump.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #2012 on: November 03, 2020, 07:31:58 PM »
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on November 03, 2020, 07:31:00 PM
There are a bunch of really blue areas mostly out: Orange and Broward in particular...

No Broward came in for early vote too, From TOTAL 2016 Biden is down by a few hundred while Trump improved by 7k. ED vote still has to come in though.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #2013 on: November 03, 2020, 07:32:02 PM »
Due to Trump underperformance in FL, Trump is gonna lose the election, FL replaces PA as the pivotal state after WI and MI and McConnell is tied with McGrath. D's will win the Senate. Mcconnell was supposed to win by 11/15
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2014 on: November 03, 2020, 07:32:14 PM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on November 03, 2020, 07:30:41 PM
Biden only does a few points better than Hillary in the Indianapolis suburbs.

That might be enough to win states like MI, WI ... but might also not be enough.

there is only 11% of the vote in right now in Indiana
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #2015 on: November 03, 2020, 07:32:16 PM »
Quote from: Xing on November 03, 2020, 07:31:08 PM
Yeah, Trump probably narrowly wins Florida (despite doing worse in a lot of areas outside of Miami), but losing Florida isn't the end for Biden, not by a longshot.

2018 really is rearing it's ugly head in this aspect.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #2016 on: November 03, 2020, 07:32:16 PM »
North Carolina exit poll toplines (from averaging men and women):

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/north-carolina-president-results?icid=election_usmap

Biden 49%
Trump 48%
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Statilius the Epicurean
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« Reply #2017 on: November 03, 2020, 07:32:19 PM »
Quote from: Alben Barkley on November 03, 2020, 07:31:07 PM
WV too early to call???

My god, Biden is making HUGE gains with white voters, clearly.

Or they're being especially conservative in their calls this year because of mail voting.
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GoTfan
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« Reply #2018 on: November 03, 2020, 07:32:31 PM »
Quote from: Alben Barkley on November 03, 2020, 07:31:35 PM

Right here. Maybe we lose FL, we still win so don’t start gloating yet.

Weren't you already gloating about Biden winning Florida by miles?
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RI
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« Reply #2019 on: November 03, 2020, 07:32:36 PM »
Trump is improving in Osceola too, so it's not just Cubans.
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #2020 on: November 03, 2020, 07:32:45 PM »
Biden already matching Clinton in raw votes in Palm Beach County, with 76% in.
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͘
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« Reply #2021 on: November 03, 2020, 07:32:56 PM »
Cuban Republican memes when?
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #2022 on: November 03, 2020, 07:33:08 PM »
NYT needle update

66% NC to Biden
55% GA to Trump
82% FLA to Trump
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RI
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« Reply #2023 on: November 03, 2020, 07:33:20 PM »
Trump wins WV
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GeneralMacArthur
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« Reply #2024 on: November 03, 2020, 07:33:26 PM »
My takes:

A) NYT needle is trash.  And they know it.
B) Biden is clearly improving with White voters everywhere in Florida
C) On the other hand, the Trump "socialism, socialism, socialism!" strategy in Miami has clearly worked as Cubans and Venezuelans have shifted to Trump.

The question is whether Biden can make up for the losses in Miami-Dade.  He's consistently running 4-5 points ahead of Clinton in the other major counties in the votes counted so far.

But if it's not, it's still a good sign for Biden's ability to win the other swing states.  Cubans and Venezuelans can't save Trump in Arizona.
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