2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Mr. Morden]

Poll closing times are listed here:

https://ballotpedia.org/State_Poll_Opening_and_Closing_Times_(2016)
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G16/closing.phtml?format=gc

First polls close in parts of IN and KY at 6pm Eastern, and we may start getting some results from those states shortly thereafter, but the networks won't call either state or post the topline exit poll #s until 7pm Eastern, when the rest of the polls close in those two states.

In addition to discussing election night results, this thread will also be used for discussing the exit polls, including exit poll leaks.  Because of the post-2004 exit polling reforms, the media themselves don't have access to any exit poll #s until 5pm Eastern.  Any supposed exit poll leaks you read before 5pm are certainly fake.  After 5pm, stuff will leak.  And we'll start getting AP stories about what the exit polls say about who voted.

Poll closing times are listed here:

https://ballotpedia.org/State_Poll_Opening_and_Closing_Times_(2020)
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G16/closing.phtml?format=gc

First polls close in parts of IN and KY at 6pm Eastern, and we may start getting some results from those states shortly thereafter, but the networks won't call either state or post the topline exit poll #s until 7pm Eastern, when the rest of the polls close in those two states.

In addition to discussing election night results, this thread will also be used for discussing the exit polls, including exit poll leaks.  Because of the post-2004 exit polling reforms, the media themselves don't have access to any exit poll #s until 5pm Eastern.  Any supposed exit poll leaks you read before 5pm are certainly fake.  After 5pm, stuff will leak.  And we'll start getting AP stories about what the exit polls say about who voted.

1 infraction point for copyright violation.

[Mr. Morden]

Why does CNN have a timer counting down to exit polls at 5pm?  5pm is simply when the networks will be *shown* the early exit polls.  It usually takes that at least 10 minutes after that for them to report what they've seen.

[Mr. Morden]

From CNN: early exit polls:

top issue:
economy 34%
racial equity 21%
coronavirus 18%

[Mr. Morden]

From CNN: early exit polls:

What's more important?:

contain coronavirus 52%
rebuild the economy 42%

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/JonThompsonDC/status/1323748940471275520

[Mr. Morden]

That's good news for Trump if you think 34% is enough to win.

Yeah, sorry, I posted the tweet just because it had the full #s for that question.  The editorializing by the tweeter saying that was good for Trump is something I don't endorse.

[Mr. Morden]

CNN early exits:

When did you decide who to vote for?

last week 4%
before that 93%

[Mr. Morden]

If the exit poll is done only on in person voters, of course it will underestimate how bad people think the coronavirus is.

To be clear, it isn't just in person voters.  They supplement the in person exits with a phone poll aimed at people who've already voted.  Though they could easily get the early / day of mix way off.

[Mr. Morden]

CNN exit poll says electorate is 65% white, 13% Latino, 12% black.

[Mr. Morden]

So far we haven't crashed, which is a good sign. Thanks to Virginia (famous last words, yes I am going to jinx it)...

In 2016, it didn't crash until 7:23pm.

[Mr. Morden]

That fact that IN was not quickly called for Trump is a very bad sign for him

Can't call a state with 2 time zones until both close, right?

That's right.

[Mr. Morden]

Georgia exit poll toplines (from averaging men and women):

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/georgia

Biden 50%
Trump 48%

[Mr. Morden]

Virginia exit poll toplines (from averaging men and women):

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/virginia

Biden 55%
Trump 44%

[Mr. Morden]

North Carolina exit poll toplines (from averaging men and women):

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/north-carolina-president-results?icid=election_usmap

Biden 49%
Trump 48%

[Mr. Morden]

No exit polls yet in NC?

We do have NC exit polls.  I linked on the previous page:

North Carolina exit poll toplines (from averaging men and women):

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/north-carolina-president-results?icid=election_usmap

Biden 49%
Trump 48%

[Mr. Morden]

Ohio exit poll toplines (from averaging men and women):

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/ohio

Trump 52%
Biden 46%

[Mr. Morden]

Florida exit poll toplines (from averaging men and women):

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/florida-president-results

Biden 49%
Trump 49%

[Mr. Morden]

Pennsylvania exit poll toplines (from averaging men and women):

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/pennsylvania-president-results

Biden 51%
Trump 47%

[Mr. Morden]

Maine exit poll toplines (from averaging men and women):

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/maine

Biden 53%
Trump 41%

[Mr. Morden]

Texas exit poll toplines (from averaging men and women):

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/texas-president-results

Trump 51%
Biden 48%

[Mr. Morden]

Arizona exit poll toplines (from averaging men and women):

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/arizona-president-results

Biden 51%
Trump 45%

Wisconsin exit poll toplines (from averaging men and women):

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/wisconsin

Biden 53%
Trump 45%

[Mr. Morden]

Michigan exit poll toplines (from averaging men and women):

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/michigan-president-results

Biden 54%
Trump 46%

Minnesota exit poll toplines (from averaging men and women):

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/minnesota-president-results

Biden 54%
Trump 44%

[Mr. Morden]

Moden, whats the CO exit poll say?

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/colorado-president-results

Biden 57%
Trump 39%

[Mr. Morden]

Iowa exit poll toplines (from averaging men and women):

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/iowa-president-results

Biden 49%
Trump 48%

[Mr. Morden]

Nevada exit poll toplines (from averaging men and women):

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/nevada-president-results

Biden 51%
Trump 44%