Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Torie]

My surmise is that this seeming buffoon chub ZALUZHNY is really a Ukrainian mole who is tying to terrify what young men (18-50) who are so foolish as to still be in Russia to flee for their lives. The idea of tooling down that road again to Kyiv wedged in between the marshes with no escape is about as advisable as over dosing on Fentanyl.

The Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian armed forces being a Ukrainian mole is certainly a shocking development.

LMAO. I am so owned on this one.   

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1603491140224835586?s=20&t=01L1fq0C1...

If the Russian legal system wasn't a joke, lawyers could do some real trolling here. "Your Honour, when my client fragged his commanding officer and decried the mobilisation, he was innocent of any crime because that was in the interests of the Russian Federation."

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1603491140224835586?s=20&t=01L1fq0C1...

If the Russian legal system wasn't a joke, lawyers could do some real trolling here. "Your Honour, when my client fragged his commanding officer and decried the mobilisation, he was innocent of any crime because that was in the interests of the Russian Federation."

LOLZ...

Would this somehow mean that Russia is legally providing protection to War Criminals (Not just the obvious ones at the head of the regime), but even lower level officers and enlisted men who committed crime such as torture, rape, and murder of civilians?

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1603491140224835586?s=20&t=01L1fq0C1...

If the Russian legal system wasn't a joke, lawyers could do some real trolling here. "Your Honour, when my client fragged his commanding officer and decried the mobilisation, he was innocent of any crime because that was in the interests of the Russian Federation."

LOLZ...

Would this somehow mean that Russia is legally providing protection to War Criminals (Not just the obvious ones at the head of the regime), but even lower level officers and enlisted men who committed crime such as torture, rape, and murder of civilians?

They’re a state sponsor of terror and hate crime and their ruling party is a hate group.

[NOVA Green]

I have previously posted multiple times regarding NATO training of Ukrainian troops, starting in the UK as well as later within other places in Continental Europe.

Looks like the US will continue to expand training of Ukrainian soldiers...

I can just imagine the "compare and contrast" model when it comes to Russian Mobnik training...

Western instruction since Russia’s invasion has focused on basic training or the use of sophisticated weapons systems. Officials say “combined arms” tactics could be a key next step.

The United States is expanding the number of Ukrainian troops it instructs at a base in Germany, with a new focus on advanced battlefield tactics, the Pentagon announced on Thursday.

The expanded training would emphasize “combined arms” warfare — tight coordination among infantry, artillery, armored vehicles and, when it is available, air support, so that each group is strengthened and protected by the others.

Ukrainian officials have been wary of pulling too many troops off the front lines at any given time for specialized training given the intensity of the war. But with winter slowing the tempo of fighting in many parts of the combat zone, officials said the coming months would provide a window for more troops to benefit from training.

The training is expected to begin in January and would enable American instructors to train a Ukrainian battalion, or about 500 troops, each month, a number that could grow, Brig. Gen. Patrick S. Ryder, a Pentagon spokesman, said at a news briefing. Other U.S. officials said the battalions could range up to 800 soldiers each.

American forces are now training about 300 Ukrainians per month — and have trained 3,100 since the war began — focused on teaching them to use specific advanced U.S. weapons systems. That includes 610 soldiers who have learned to use the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS, that Ukraine has used to devastating effect against Russian forces, hitting targets far behind the front lines, including ammunition depots, command posts and bridges.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/15/world/europe/ukraine-troops-training-pentagon.html

[CanadianDemocrat]

Reminder about why wars of Invasion / Occupation can be extremely problematic for the Occupier / Invader...

The role of the underground Ukrainian Resistance Movement in Russian Occupied Ukraine cannot be understated enough.

During Russia’s occupation of the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson, a large electronics store served Russian forces as a field hospital, barracks and storehouse for food.

One morning last summer, Ukrainian forces struck the store, completely destroying it. It was one of numerous attacks that day on Russian-controlled territory deep inside the Kherson region.

Before the blast, a small group of local Ukrainian activists had been sending photographs of the location and coordinates of the Russians over an encrypted Telegram channel to the Ukrainian military. That intelligence helped Ukrainian forces target the site, according to a military official who worked with such groups.

They monitored roads into the city, watched feeds from street cameras trained on key intersections and cycled into fields pretending to tend to livestock while clocking Russian troops.

The group had around 20 members, say those involved. After Russia disabled Ukrainian network connections, they used Russian SIM cards and VPNs to disguise their traffic. Two of them were Ukrainian reconnaissance officers who verified images and coordinates sent to the group and forwarded them to military commanders, who then alerted officers in Kyiv authorized to order a strike.

It usually took about 15 minutes for the military to act on a tip—less if a Russian Buk or another air-defense system, a priority target, was spotted. A photo or video sent by partisans was treated as evidence of a Russian position if coordinates were given, according to Andrei, who would ask the military to verify the target, sometimes using drones.

Maksym, a car repairman who was a member, took three trips to Russian-occupied Crimea with a Russian officer whose vehicle he had helped fix in Kherson. All the while, Maksym was gathering valuable information for the Ukrainian military.

Maksym took sedatives en route to keep himself calm. “It was very tense,” he said. Once they arrived in the Crimean city of Simferopol on the third trip, he was invited to drink with three other Russian officers. He passed details of the conversation that helped the military confirm that many Russian troops were living not in the city of Kherson but in Tarasivka, a place to the south.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraines-secret-weapon-is-ordinary-people-spying-on-russian-forces-11671012147?mod=hp_lead_pos7

There was 2-3 months of Ukrainians wiping out Russian HQ's, ammo dumps, fuel depots and troop concentrations in Kherson before the Ukrainians liberated Kherson city.

The same thing is happening now, with HIMARS strikes on Russian occupied Melitopol and the Zaporizhzhia region. When the mud season is over and the ground freezes, Zaporizhzhia region will be the next big counteroffensive.

[NOVA Green]

Reminder about why wars of Invasion / Occupation can be extremely problematic for the Occupier / Invader...

The role of the underground Ukrainian Resistance Movement in Russian Occupied Ukraine cannot be understated enough.

During Russia’s occupation of the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson, a large electronics store served Russian forces as a field hospital, barracks and storehouse for food.

One morning last summer, Ukrainian forces struck the store, completely destroying it. It was one of numerous attacks that day on Russian-controlled territory deep inside the Kherson region.

Before the blast, a small group of local Ukrainian activists had been sending photographs of the location and coordinates of the Russians over an encrypted Telegram channel to the Ukrainian military. That intelligence helped Ukrainian forces target the site, according to a military official who worked with such groups.

They monitored roads into the city, watched feeds from street cameras trained on key intersections and cycled into fields pretending to tend to livestock while clocking Russian troops.

The group had around 20 members, say those involved. After Russia disabled Ukrainian network connections, they used Russian SIM cards and VPNs to disguise their traffic. Two of them were Ukrainian reconnaissance officers who verified images and coordinates sent to the group and forwarded them to military commanders, who then alerted officers in Kyiv authorized to order a strike.

It usually took about 15 minutes for the military to act on a tip—less if a Russian Buk or another air-defense system, a priority target, was spotted. A photo or video sent by partisans was treated as evidence of a Russian position if coordinates were given, according to Andrei, who would ask the military to verify the target, sometimes using drones.

Maksym, a car repairman who was a member, took three trips to Russian-occupied Crimea with a Russian officer whose vehicle he had helped fix in Kherson. All the while, Maksym was gathering valuable information for the Ukrainian military.

Maksym took sedatives en route to keep himself calm. “It was very tense,” he said. Once they arrived in the Crimean city of Simferopol on the third trip, he was invited to drink with three other Russian officers. He passed details of the conversation that helped the military confirm that many Russian troops were living not in the city of Kherson but in Tarasivka, a place to the south.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraines-secret-weapon-is-ordinary-people-spying-on-russian-forces-11671012147?mod=hp_lead_pos7

There was 2-3 months of Ukrainians wiping out Russian HQ's, ammo dumps, fuel depots and troop concentrations in Kherson before the Ukrainians liberated Kherson city.

The same thing is happening now, with HIMARS strikes on Russian occupied Melitopol and the Zaporizhzhia region. When the mud season is over and the ground freezes, Zaporizhzhia region will be the next big counteroffensive.

Welcome to the Forum CanadianDemocrat!

Very good first (20) posts in a variety of different threads on various topics, so just wanted to toss that out there...

You might want to check out this thread as well to contribute to, since after all many International Posters from outside of US frequently provide some the best contributions in various INTL threads.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=316424.2600

Peace, Love, & Mutual Solidarity

--- NOVA GREEN

[Frodo]

Viktor Orban once again demonstrates where his true sympathies lie in this war -and they are not with Ukraine, considering his willingness to use them as a bargaining chip with the European Union:

Hungary blocks EU Ukraine aid, deepening rift with Brussels

Crisis averted, for now, though I won't hold my breath waiting for Orban's government to implement those rule of law provisions in good faith:

EU Nations Agree to Unblock Ukraine Aid, Clear Hungary Funds

Now it's Poland's turn:

Poland holds up Ukraine aid and Hungary plans over tax concerns
Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki is expected to escalate the issue at a meeting of EU leaders Thursday

[Frodo]

With all this talk about Ukraine making Melitopol the key target of its next offensive, how do we know that it isn't another feint drawing scarce Russian resources to defend that city at the expense of other areas?  Last time, Ukraine led the Russians to believe that Kherson was going to be the main target, before it became apparent that their main objective was to clear Kharkiv oblast of Russian troops.  Perhaps something similar is happening, and the main assault could be aimed at Mariupol instead?

[NOVA Green]

Viktor Orban once again demonstrates where his true sympathies lie in this war -and they are not with Ukraine, considering his willingness to use them as a bargaining chip with the European Union:

Hungary blocks EU Ukraine aid, deepening rift with Brussels

Crisis averted, for now, though I won't hold my breath waiting for Orban's government to implement those rule of law provisions in good faith:

EU Nations Agree to Unblock Ukraine Aid, Clear Hungary Funds



Now it's Poland's turn:

Poland holds up Ukraine aid and Hungary plans over tax concerns
Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki is expected to escalate the issue at a meeting of EU leaders Thursday

The EU plan to expand to the East (Heavily by Germany post reunification) as part of common "Free-Trade" bloc in the '90s was always a mistake from my perspective, despite some arguable marginal gains when it comes to the trade-off between building more Neo-Liberal Economic structures within Central and Eastern Europe, versus incorporating countries with a relatively illiberal political tradition into the EU (Hungary and Poland spring to mind immediately).

Although certainly I would be one of the last on Atlas to subscribe to the Russian perspective regarding about how the expansion of the EU and NATO to the East was somehow an attempt to destroy the rump Russian Republic of the former USSR, it is patently clear that the loss of "internal colonies", has likely fed the grievances of many of those left behind during the massive rush during the rise of the Oligarchs as certain countries move towards a Spätkapitalismus society.

[Torie]

There needs to be some weighting of the EU vote by economic size, and to get rid of unanimous consent. It is one thing for something to go down if Germany or France opposes it, another for Poland to do so, and ludicrous when you have a place as far down the economic food chain as Hungary nixing something. Next thing you know it will be Andorra.

[Sir Mohamed]

Medvedev is total nuts. His anexity about having been demoted to a useless random post must be strong. Hint: You won't ever be prez again, dude.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1603687581262266368

[Person Man]

With all this talk about Ukraine making Melitopol the key target of its next offensive, how do we know that it isn't another feint drawing scarce Russian resources to defend that city at the expense of other areas?  Last time, Ukraine led the Russians to believe that Kherson was going to be the main target, before it became apparent that their main objective was to clear Kharkiv oblast of Russian troops.  Perhaps something similar is happening, and the main assault could be aimed at Mariupol instead?

This statement is false, right? Think about that. It’s actually a good strategy.

[CumbrianLefty]

Lukashenko would be signing his political (and possible literal) death warrant if he did that

Belarus has been "about to enter the war" maybe half a dozen times since this started. The reasons why it has never actually happened are indeed fairly obvious, and remain just as relevant as ever.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

There needs to be some weighting of the EU vote by economic size, and to get rid of unanimous consent. It is one thing for something to go down if Germany or France opposes it, another for Poland to do so, and ludicrous when you have a place as far down the economic food chain as Hungary nixing something. Next thing you know it will be Andorra.

Since Andorra is not even a EU member, them vetoing EU policy would indeed be a step too far.

[Torie]

There needs to be some weighting of the EU vote by economic size, and to get rid of unanimous consent. It is one thing for something to go down if Germany or France opposes it, another for Poland to do so, and ludicrous when you have a place as far down the economic food chain as Hungary nixing something. Next thing you know it will be Andorra.

Since Andorra is not even a EU member, them vetoing EU policy would indeed be a step too far.

I was a bit concerned about that. Malta then. i looked it up this time. 

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1603587709305495556
If Bakmut is stabilizing then Russia really has nothing to hang it’s hat on.

[Woody]

Bakhmut region -

Yakovlivka taken, to Soledar's east.

https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1603791663519907841
https://mobile.twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1603676579657310212

[Woody]

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/16-december-pmc-wagner-mercenaries-captured-yakovlivka-village

Soledar is now exposed to RU attacks from the east/north. General consensus is that Bakhmut will not fall as long as Soledar is in Ukrainian hands.

[Woody]

Massive missile/drone barrage during the morning. Blackouts spread in some parts of the country.

https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1603658757422157827
https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1603692174876577795
https://twitter.com/venik44/status/1603665960212303872
https://twitter.com/Cyberspec1/status/1603660791218966528

[Estrella]

Croatia rejects joining in EU’s Ukraine training mission

The vote in parliament was held after Croatia’s president previously had refused to sign off on the proposal, saying it was not in accordance with the Constitution. President Zoran Milanovic has been an outspoken critic of Western policies in Ukraine. He has advocated that Croatia offer only humanitarian aid to Ukraine in the face of Russia’s invasion.

The government needed a two-thirds majority in parliament to get such a decision approved. The proposal did not pass because 97 out of parliament’s 151 members backed it — four fewer than needed. Ten lawmakers were against while the rest abstained or weren’t present during the vote.

Milanović was quite pro-Russian during his 2011–2016 term as PM, and after leaving office set up a consultancy firm with some rather suspicious connections to Moscow. As president, he's somehow managed to out-Orbán Orbán.

Highlights of Milanović's foreign policies include lashing out at the PM for visiting Ukraine, accusing the UK of goading Ukraine against Russia, saying that Russia deserves security guarantees from Ukraine, banning NATO aircraft from Croatian airspace, saying that the invasion is a US-Russian proxy war, calling the 2014 Ukrainian revolution a coup d'état, denying the Bucha massacre, saying that "it's the Ukrainians or those who incited them who are to blame for deaths of Ukrainians" and this quote which, yes, is real and was said this September: "we're currently watching how Russia is mincing Ukraine with very small number of soldiers".

[Storr]

"Well, the British caused famines too" isn't the convincing argument you think it is:

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1603792843218497536?s=20&t=_PALP21n...

[Person Man]

"Well, the British caused famines too" isn't the convincing argument you think it is:

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1603792843218497536?s=20&t=_PALP21n...

I’d just ask them back “ what about your mom?”

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1603817380437557248

[DavidB.]

There needs to be some weighting of the EU vote by economic size, and to get rid of unanimous consent. It is one thing for something to go down if Germany or France opposes it, another for Poland to do so, and ludicrous when you have a place as far down the economic food chain as Hungary nixing something. Next thing you know it will be Andorra.

This "food chain" line of thinking is exactly why smaller countries wouldn't want to abolish the veto. It's essentially the same argument as for abolishing the U.S. Senate or redistributing its seats according to population. The EU isn't just supposed to represent 450 million people; the 27 Member States represent the peoples of these states and the European Council - although often overlooked publicly - is the most powerful institution for a reason (although the Commission has quite boldly taken the lead when it comes to Ukraine and, I have to say, hasn't done it in a bad way).

Regardless of all of this, Germany has been the primary nuisance in forming a unified block to support Ukraine. But they are powerful enough to block things before they are on the table and thereby avoid Hungary's optics issue.