Japan 2021 Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections (July) and Lower House Election Oct 31st

[CascadianIndy]

Edano refuses to step down as CDP leader.   This is not a good look for him or CDP. 

is there any talent left to lead the party or are they, like most LDP leaders, a charisma black hole

[Logical]

Edano refuses to step down as CDP leader.   This is not a good look for him or CDP.  

is there any talent left to lead the party or are they, like most LDP leaders, a charisma black hole

The name I see being floated by CDP supporters is Ogawa Junya. Young, energetic and defeated an LDP incumbent in this election. The only problem I see is that he represents a small prefecture in Shikoku so any home region bump he gets is minimal.

To be honest I think CDP should get a female leader to stand out and attract the women vote but there is no one both tenured and charismatic enough. Renho's had her chance in 2017 and she blew it bad.

[jaichind]

岐阜(Gifu) 5th is also interesting but most likely not competitive in the end.  

The reason it is interesting is the CDP is running a 25-year-old woman 今井るる(Imai Ruru)
as its candidate.  It seems that out of college she has no real political experience other than being a community activist.  


In 2017 this district was

LDP    54.1
HP     34.0  (DPJ background)
JCP    11.9

It is fairly rural so it is really not a good fit for someone without deep roots in the district.  Worst both the JCP and JRP are also in the race.  In theory, the PR vote in this district is fairly positive for CDP so she does have some basis to build her vote.  Recently some poll has her closing in on the LDP incumbent but most likely he will win by a good margin.

Still, it is interesting to see the CDP try out a candidate that young.  Most likely they are playing the long game.  Given the lean of the district if she can perhaps win on the PR slate she can slowly build roots in the district and finally dethrone the LDP a couple of election cycles from now.  She has the time.

The result was

LDP 48.5
CDP 40.5
JRP  5.9
JCP  5.2

She did very well considering the circumstances. If she runs again in the next election she could even win outright or make it close enough to get in proportionally (had CDP not performed awfully in Aichi she would've made it in this time). A talent to watch for.

She actually came closer to winning than the CDP candidate in 岐阜(Gifu) 4th which was considered a tossup even though I had it as a LDP win.  She did not make it on the PR list of winners but I think if she is willing to invest her time in the district she can get on the PR list next time and given the fact that her LDP opponent is already 69 she can win outright 2-3 cycles from now when it becomes an open seat.

[jaichind]

Sometimes it pays to be in the right place at the right time.  DPP and RS unexpected overperformance on the PR slate along with underperformance in district seats (outside those seats where DPP ran very strong candidates and won outright) created some strange winners.

DPP and RS won a PR seat in 南関東(South Kanto) each.  Using the best loser model the two winners are

神奈川(Kanagawa) 10th
LDP     41.4% (wins)
JRP      27.5%
JCP      19.3%
DPP      11.8% (wins on PR slate)

千葉(Chiba) 11th
LDP     64.4% (wins)
JCP      17.8%
RS       17.6% (wins on PR slate)


In 近畿(Kinki) RS unexpectedly won a PR seat.  Its winner was

大阪(Osaka) 5th
KP       53.1% (wins)
JCP      24.1% (wins on PR slate)
RS       17.1% (wins on PR slate)
Ind.       5.7% (wife of the owner of Moritomo Gakuen of Abe's Moritomo Gakuen scandal)

So these DPP and RS winners are elected by winning a vote share of less than 20% and coming in 3rd or 4th place.

[Lachi]

We have overall vote percentages now

LDP: 48.05% (+0.23)
CDP: 29.99% (+21.46)
Ishin:  8.35% (+5.17)
JCP:    4.61% (-4.41)
DPP:    2.17%
KP:      1.52% (+0.02)
SDP:    0.54% (-0.63)
RS:      0.43%

Proportional Vote

LDP:   34.66% (+1.38)
CDP:   20%     (+0.12)
Ishin:  14.01% (+7.94)
KP:     12.38% (-0.13)
JCP:     7.25% (-0.65)
DPP:    4.51% (+4.51)
RS:      3.86% (+3.86)
SDP:    1.77% (+0.08)

[Logical]

Sometimes it pays to be in the right place at the right time.  DPP and RS unexpected overperformance on the PR slate along with underperformance in district seats (outside those seats where DPP ran very strong candidates and won outright) created some strange winners.

DPP and RS won a PR seat in 南関東(South Kanto) each.  Using the best loser model the two winners are

神奈川(Kanagawa) 10th
LDP     41.4% (wins)
JRP      27.5%
JCP      19.3%
DPP      11.8% (wins on PR slate)

千葉(Chiba) 11th
LDP     64.4% (wins)
JCP      17.8%
RS       17.6% (wins on PR slate)


In 近畿(Kinki) RS unexpectedly won a PR seat.  Its winner was

大阪(Osaka) 5th
KP       53.1% (wins)
JCP      24.1% (wins on PR slate)
RS       17.1% (wins on PR slate)
Ind.       5.7% (wife of the owner of Moritomo Gakuen of Abe's Moritomo Gakuen scandal)

So these DPP and RS winners are elected by winning a vote share of less than 20% and coming in 3rd or 4th place.

RS would've won a seat in Tokai as well had the two candidates they ran won at least 10% in their districts. One of them could've ran as a PR only candidate too. As it is, the seat they're entitled to goes to Komeito.

[jaichind]

Sometimes it pays to be in the right place at the right time.  DPP and RS unexpected overperformance on the PR slate along with underperformance in district seats (outside those seats where DPP ran very strong candidates and won outright) created some strange winners.

DPP and RS won a PR seat in 南関東(South Kanto) each.  Using the best loser model the two winners are

神奈川(Kanagawa) 10th
LDP     41.4% (wins)
JRP      27.5%
JCP      19.3%
DPP      11.8% (wins on PR slate)

千葉(Chiba) 11th
LDP     64.4% (wins)
JCP      17.8%
RS       17.6% (wins on PR slate)


In 近畿(Kinki) RS unexpectedly won a PR seat.  Its winner was

大阪(Osaka) 5th
KP       53.1% (wins)
JCP      24.1% (wins on PR slate)
RS       17.1% (wins on PR slate)
Ind.       5.7% (wife of the owner of Moritomo Gakuen of Abe's Moritomo Gakuen scandal)

So these DPP and RS winners are elected by winning a vote share of less than 20% and coming in 3rd or 4th place.

RS would've won a seat in Tokai as well had the two candidates they ran won at least 10% in their districts. One of them could've ran as a PR only candidate too. As it is, the seat they're entitled to goes to Komeito.

Wow.  I did not know about the rule that you have to win 10% of the vote to be revived on the PR slate.  Then KP really underperformed on the PR section.  It seems they only deserved 22 seats versus a diappointing 21 in 2017.

[Logical]

Sometimes it pays to be in the right place at the right time.  DPP and RS unexpected overperformance on the PR slate along with underperformance in district seats (outside those seats where DPP ran very strong candidates and won outright) created some strange winners.

DPP and RS won a PR seat in 南関東(South Kanto) each.  Using the best loser model the two winners are

神奈川(Kanagawa) 10th
LDP     41.4% (wins)
JRP      27.5%
JCP      19.3%
DPP      11.8% (wins on PR slate)

千葉(Chiba) 11th
LDP     64.4% (wins)
JCP      17.8%
RS       17.6% (wins on PR slate)


In 近畿(Kinki) RS unexpectedly won a PR seat.  Its winner was

大阪(Osaka) 5th
KP       53.1% (wins)
JCP      24.1% (wins on PR slate)
RS       17.1% (wins on PR slate)
Ind.       5.7% (wife of the owner of Moritomo Gakuen of Abe's Moritomo Gakuen scandal)

So these DPP and RS winners are elected by winning a vote share of less than 20% and coming in 3rd or 4th place.

RS would've won a seat in Tokai as well had the two candidates they ran won at least 10% in their districts. One of them could've ran as a PR only candidate too. As it is, the seat they're entitled to goes to Komeito.

Wow.  I did not know about the rule that you have to win 10% of the vote to be revived on the PR slate.  Then KP really underperformed on the PR section.  It seems they only deserved 22 seats versus a diappointing 21 in 2017.

It was enacted starting from 2000 along with cutting 20 PR seats after people complained that candidates getting 5% of district vote (less than the deposit threshold) would still get elected on the PR list.

[Logical]

Is there any chance that Kishida, Ishin and the DPP use their supermajority to amend the constitution to remove constraints on the JSDF? I noticed a few polls that had Ishin supporters as being considerably more hawkish than those of other parties (they had the strongest negative view of China and were the only one with a majority in support of acquiring nuclear weapons) but I'm not sure what the DPP's position on such revisions is. Komeito is at least ostensibly pacifistic though, so presumably they wouldn't be in support.

Revising the constitution requires major major political capital, something even Abe could not accomplish at the peak of his popularity. Just because they agree broadly on revising a section of the constitution doesn't mean the different parties and internal factions of the LDP can agree upon what exactly will change, its wording etc. DPP is divided on the matter of constitution and Komeito is of course internally opposed to revisionism so chances are very slim. Not to mention any revision has to go through a referendum against a famously change resistant Japanese electorate. Kishida also based his campaign as a clean break from the Abe/Suga administration, and hardly mentioned constitutional revision at all during the election.

[jaichind]

Is there any chance that Kishida, Ishin and the DPP use their supermajority to amend the constitution to remove constraints on the JSDF? I noticed a few polls that had Ishin supporters as being considerably more hawkish than those of other parties (they had the strongest negative view of China and were the only one with a majority in support of acquiring nuclear weapons) but I'm not sure what the DPP's position on such revisions is. Komeito is at least ostensibly pacifistic though, so presumably they wouldn't be in support.

Revising the constitution requires major major political capital, something even Abe could not accomplish at the peak of his popularity. Just because they agree broadly on revising a section of the constitution doesn't mean the different parties and internal factions of the LDP can agree upon what exactly will change, its wording etc. DPP is divided on the matter of constitution and Komeito is of course internally opposed to revisionism so chances are very slim. Not to mention any revision has to go through a referendum against a famously change resistant Japanese electorate. Kishida also based his campaign as a clean break from the Abe/Suga administration, and hardly mentioned constitutional revision at all during the election.

Also, in the Upper House the pro-Constitution revision bloc (LDP KP JRP) does not have a 2/3 majority. Perhaps if they rope DPP they could do it.  Also, KP is not on board with what LDP has in mind and JRP has its own ideas on what Constitution revision means.  I think LDP rather have the issue than actual revision.

[CumbrianLefty]

We have overall vote percentages now

LDP: 48.05% (+0.23)
CDP: 29.99% (+21.46)
Ishin:  8.35% (+5.17)
JCP:    4.61% (-4.41)
DPP:    2.17%
KP:      1.52% (+0.02)
SDP:    0.54% (-0.63)
RS:      0.43%

Proportional Vote

LDP:   34.66% (+1.38)
CDP:   20%     (+0.12)
Ishin:  14.01% (+7.94)
KP:     12.38% (-0.13)
JCP:     7.25% (-0.65)
DPP:    4.51% (+4.51)
RS:      3.86% (+3.86)
SDP:    1.77% (+0.08)

Is that the lowest ever for the JCP?

[jaichind]

We have overall vote percentages now

LDP: 48.05% (+0.23)
CDP: 29.99% (+21.46)
Ishin:  8.35% (+5.17)
JCP:    4.61% (-4.41)
DPP:    2.17%
KP:      1.52% (+0.02)
SDP:    0.54% (-0.63)
RS:      0.43%

Proportional Vote

LDP:   34.66% (+1.38)
CDP:   20%     (+0.12)
Ishin:  14.01% (+7.94)
KP:     12.38% (-0.13)
JCP:     7.25% (-0.65)
DPP:    4.51% (+4.51)
RS:      3.86% (+3.86)
SDP:    1.77% (+0.08)

Is that the lowest ever for the JCP?

They were lower in 2009 2010 and 2012 and about the same as 2005. 

[jaichind]

Going forward there is going to be a bunch of upside for JRP in 兵庫(Hyōgo).  There were many 3 way battles in 兵庫(Hyōgo) seats and CDP and JRP ended up winning one seat each.  But due to JRP overperformance in the PR slate in Kinki AND JRP sweeping Osaka, JRP had a lot of PR slots to hand out and a lot of JRP second-place finishers in 兵庫(Hyōgo) are elected on the PR slate.  This is very ominous news for CDP.  At the Upper House level 兵庫(Hyōgo) is already dominated by LDP JRP and KP due to JCP refusing to withdraw its candidate.  In this election Lower House election the JCP withdrew in several winnable seats which at least gave CDP a chance to turn 兵庫(Hyōgo) into a 3-way prefecture between LDP-KP, JRP, and CDP-JCP given the JRP surge. But the JRP surge was so strong that the danger for CDP is that even if in the future they can convince JCP not to run in winnable seats, those same winnable seats will start turning into LDP vs JRP seats with CDP in a distant third.  In other words, there is a risk 兵庫(Hyōgo) slowly turns into another Osaka. And if that is true that could be bad news for LDP on the long term as well.

[jaichind]

This JRP surge this election seems uniquely urban.  JRP always had an urban bias but that is also related to the fact that as a Kinki regionalist party it is strong in urban prefectures of 大阪(Osaka) and 兵庫(Hyōgo).  The way can factor that out is to look at JRP vote shares over the last few elections in non-大阪(Osaka) non-兵庫(Hyōgo) urban suburban and rural prefectures.  Doing so gets us this chart

              Urban      Suburban    Rural
2014      15.43%    13.95%      13.42%    
2016       7.85%       6.94%       5.96%
2017       4.20%       4.63%       3.97%
2019       8.85%       7.40%       6.00%
2021      14.02%    11.03%       8.70%

The 2012 JRP was really a fusion of the original Osaka core and various DPJ YP and LDP defectors in the rest of Japan.   JRP was very strong in Osaka and in the rest of Japan had an urban lean but not a massive one.

Between 2014 and 2016 YP splinter UP merged with JRP to form JIP but then JIP  split between the Osaka core and the non-Osaka branch.  The non-Osaka branch took JIP to merge with DPJ from DP while the Osaka core took over the JRP name again in 2016.

As a result, JRP non-大阪(Osaka) non-兵庫(Hyōgo)  vote fell from 2014 to 2016 across the board but did not really shift its urban-rural balance.

In 2017 HP took more JRP votes but it seems to have taken more of its non-大阪(Osaka) non-兵庫(Hyōgo)  urban vote.  By 2019 HP fell apart and most of this support flowed back to a bit above 2016 levels with the small urban bias.

In 2021 the JRP surge was much larger in non-大阪(Osaka) non-兵庫(Hyōgo) urban areas than suburban and rural areas as demonstrated by the chart.  There was a large surge in 大阪(Osaka) and 兵庫(Hyōgo) as well but that seems to be a double affect of a regionalist AND an urban surge.

[jaichind]

My own district vote share calculations.  I refuse to accept this retroactive nomination stuff and I count the 2 retroactively nominated winners as pro-LDP independents.

LDP              48.07%
pro-LDP Ind    0.46%
KP                  1.52%
LDP rebel       1.28%
PNHK             0.26%
JRP                8.36%
DPP               2.17%
CDP             29.95%
RS                 0.46%
SDP               0.54%
JCP                4.59%
pro-Oppn Ind  1.28%
Oppn rebel     0.37%
Minor Right    0.38%
Minor Left       0.23%
Minor             0.07%

[jaichind]

Battle matrix

LDP vs CDP
         Vote share    win
LDP      53.03%      65
CDP     46.32%       34


LDP vs CDP vs JCP
         Vote share    win
LDP      57.54%      28
CDP     33.11%         2
JCP        8.37%


LDP vs CDP vs JRP
         Vote share    win
LDP      41.43%      26
CDP      37.72%      15
JRP       20.16%       5


LDP vs JCP vs JRP
         Vote share    win
LDP      45.37%        7
JCP      18.93%      
JRP      35.70%        4


LDP vs CDP vs JCP vs JRP
        Vote share    win
LDP      38.39%       6
CDP     22.47%        1
JCP        7.64%    
JRP      31.24%        5


LDP vs JCP
         Vote share    win
LDP      76.29%      15
JCP     21.93%


LDP vs DPP
         Vote share    win
LDP     48.09%        3
DPP     51.43%        3


LDP vs DPP vs JCP
         Vote share    win
LDP      52.49%       5
DPP      33.62%       2
JCP      12.36%


LDP vs Opposition Ind vs JCP
         Vote share    win
LDP      43.04%       1
OPPN    44.23%       3
JCP       11.44%


Note: Seats that JCP withdrew from are mostly marginal seats so the Opposition was always going to do better.  Likewise, seats, where JCP contested against CDP or by itself, are by definition mostly LDP strongholds so LDP was always going to do well.   Seats that DPP were given a free run by CDP and JCP all have a local DPP face that has deep roots with the district so DPP were always going to outperform in those districts.

[CascadianIndy]

Edano OUT as CDP leader.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/11/02/national/cdp-leader-yukio-edano-quit-post-poor-election-results/

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Edano OUT as CDP leader.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/11/02/national/cdp-leader-yukio-edano-quit-post-poor-election-results/

One only imagines the stern talking to that he got behind closed doors.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

[CONSTITUTIONAL] DEMS IN DISARRAY

Seriously, though, this is dismaying, but I guess elevating Kishida just wasn't as bad a move as people assumed. He probably swayed some moderate-ish voters back into the LDP fold, and most of the people turned off by him are the sort who would vote Ishin before any of the other opposition forces.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

[CONSTITUTIONAL] DEMS IN DISARRAY

Seriously, though, this is dismaying, but I guess elevating Kishida just wasn't as bad a move as people assumed. He probably swayed some moderate-ish voters back into the LDP fold, and most of the people turned off by him are the sort who would vote Ishin before any of the other opposition forces.

The JC(D)P alliance must also have been a massive help to Kishida.
The JCP is just toxic to the clear majority of the Japanese electorate, and this election rings true to that.

[Logical]

It's less to do with the JCP more with the fact that the various 民主党 offshoots never had a strong local base outside a few prefectures and relies on floating independent voters that always flirts with the latest fad parties. The reason for JRP's resilience despite numerous setbacks and splits was that they had a strong infrastructure in Osaka to fall back to. Same with LDP, KP, and JCP nationally. There's a reason the center left opposition space keeps getting rearranged while the strength of those 3 parties remain constant throughout. The top heavy focus of opposition politicians means that the voters judge them poorly on competence. In the end, they will always choose parties with a proven track record of delivering services and pork unless they are really really mad at the LDP.

[jaichind]

Kyodo post-election party support poll (change from the pre-election poll).  Note this is party support and not PR vote poll which will give very different results

LDP   45.7 (-5.1)
KP      6.2 (+1.5)
PNHK  0.9 (+0.5)
JRP   14.4 (+9.4)
DPP     3.3 (+1.9)
CDP   11.2 (-0.4)
RS       1.8 (+0.5)
SDP     1.2 (+0.4)
JCP      4.0 (+1.5)

Support seems to be flowing from LDP CDP and independents to JRP which I guess is viewed as the real winner of the election.

[jaichind]

It is these two blocs of seats that were the most decisive for the LDP and JRP overperformance and CDP underperformance

LDP vs CDP
         Vote share    win
LDP      53.03%      65
CDP     46.32%       34

LDP vs CDP vs JRP
         Vote share    win
LDP      41.43%      26
CDP      37.72%      15
JRP       20.16%       5

I will have to get the PR vote share for these districts but I am sure once I do what I will find is that for the LDP vs CDP seats the JRP PR vote tilted LDP and for the LDP vs CDP vs JRP seats the DPP PR and even RS PR vote tilted JRP giving the LDP a lot of unexpected wins over CDP as well as some JRP some extra wins as well.

[jaichind]

There is already talk within CDP that they should end their alliance with JCP.  If they do they might get hit in the 2022 Upper House elections where CDP might lose some of the single-member seats to a spirited JCP candidate.  Perhaps the right lesson for CDP is: alliance/cooperation with JCP is fine for Upper House elections where national power is not on the line and the anti-LDP vote wants to let off some steam and give them one consolidated candidate to vote for is a good idea but doing an explicit alliance with JCP with national power on the line is a mistake and lets the LDP have the talking point of CDP is a proxy for JCP.

[jaichind]

Candidates so far for CDP leader

小川淳也(Ogawa Jun'ya) - 香川(Kagawa) 1st
馬淵澄夫(Mabuchi Sumio) -  奈良(Nara) 1st
玄葉 光一郎(Genba Kōichirō) - 福島(Fukushima) 3rd

If it ends up being 小川淳也(Ogawa Jun'ya) then both CDP and DPP leaders would be from 香川(Kagawa)