Japan 2021 Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections (July) and Lower House Election Oct 31st

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

jaichind, do you know why the right is so much stronger in Aomori than in the rest of the Northeast? iirc even in the Kanto- and Tohoku-driven DPJ landslide in 2009 the LDP held the Aomori seats.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

jaichind, do you know why the right is so much stronger in Aomori than in the rest of the Northeast? iirc even in the Kanto- and Tohoku-driven DPJ landslide in 2009 the LDP held the Aomori seats.

Lets be clear about the Right's overperformance in 青森(Aomori).  LDP overperforms in Lower House elections in 青森(Aomori).  For the PR vote if you look at the Right/Left PRI 青森(Aomori) mostly votes to the Left of Japan since 2004.  In fact in 2019 青森(Aomori) voted 4.37% to the Left of Japan on the PR vote.

The reason why LDP overperforms in Lower House elections in 青森(Aomori) is mostly path dependent.  In rural areas incumbency and name recognition plays a big role.  LDP is fairly strong at the prefecture level which means it has a candidate quality edge relative to the opposition.  The Japanese Lower House election of dual listing of candidates in district and PR section on a best loser basis means in many districts the second place candidate (mostly Center-Left Opposition) are still elected on the PR slate.  What I noticed is that MP that wins on the PR slate but lost the district seat is still considered by the voters of said district still view that MP as an incumbent which keeps him/her competitive in the next election.

In 青森(Aomori) due to the large candidate quality gap the Center-Left opposition candidate never did well enough to get elected on the PR slate which in a vicus cycle means they have less of a chance of doing well in the next election.  LDP also being elected here and no Center-Left Opposition MPs means that local politicians will continue to join LDP for career advancement which in turn add to the LDP candidate quality gap.   So how the Center-Left opposition does is often bimodal where if the Center-Left Opposition gets competitive that helps it maintain being competitive and vice versa.

In the 2016 Upper House elections DP ran a quality candidate with deep family roots in the prefecture (her father was LDP kingpin before defecting to the DPJ) and was able to defeat a LDP incumbent.  She herself was a MP before 2012 winning only on the PR slate via the path of best loser.  This shows that the Center-Left Opposition can win here if it can close the candidate quality gap and keep that gap small.

So Aomori isn't a right-wing prefecture as such, just one that old-school LDP machines happen to have done very well for themselves in? That makes sense; thanks!

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I've been to Chiba Prefecture and it's not what I'd call natural turf for the post-2012 remnants of the Japanese left. I get that Kumagai was an extremely strong candidate and forged a lot of political alliances, though; did he have an especially good COVID record as Mayor of Chiba City or something?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://www.asahi.com/articles/ASP5K633LP5KUTFK01J.html

PNHK changes its name from "NHKから自国民を守る党" or Party that Protects People from the NHK to "古い政党から国民を守る党" or "The Party that Protects the People from Old Political Parties." Most media outlets labels them as  "古" or Old just like 自由民主党(LDP) is called "自" or Freedom.  I guess PNHK (which I assume now has to be called POPP) wants to expand its appeal to not just anti-NHK put as a full blown anti-establishment party.

Understandable considering what a fringey, absurd idea a single-issue anti-NHK party was to begin with. It's hilarious that they're abbreviating it to just 古, though. Talk about mixed messages!

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14405073

"Tokyo’s neighbors seek COVID-19 state of emergency"

The 3 urbanized Tokyo suburbs of 埼玉(Saitama), 千葉(Chiba), 神奈川(Kanagawa) are all asking for a state of emergency just like Tokyo.

The medal situation for Japan in the Olympics are so far so good but the COVID-19 spread is picking up.  Still net net negative for Suga.  He has to hope the current surge subsides by end of Aug leaving only memories of a good metal haul in the minds of the voter come fall.

Which of course entails hoping people will have a longer memory about the Olympics than about the COVID spread in the first place--itself not a given!

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

[CONSTITUTIONAL] DEMS IN DISARRAY

Seriously, though, this is dismaying, but I guess elevating Kishida just wasn't as bad a move as people assumed. He probably swayed some moderate-ish voters back into the LDP fold, and most of the people turned off by him are the sort who would vote Ishin before any of the other opposition forces.