Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Skye]

The next step for some in the election mafia will be to downplay the significance of this race as McAuliffe was a "bad candidate" (which, he was) that uniquely underperformed. So... how does that explain the New Jersey results, or the other statewide races that look nearly identical (with an incumbent Dem AG likely losing)? Or the competitive HoD?

What's the election mafia?

[ElectionsGuy]

The next step for some in the election mafia will be to downplay the significance of this race as McAuliffe was a "bad candidate" (which, he was) that uniquely underperformed. So... how does that explain the New Jersey results, or the other statewide races that look nearly identical (with an incumbent Dem AG likely losing)? Or the competitive HoD?

What's the election mafia?

It's a term coinced by RedEaglePolitics (right-wing elections youtuber) that describes the people who prognosticate about and predict elections, and the way they control the narratives over the predictions of parties and candidates winning. The left (and therefore Democrats) have the overwhelming share of the people who are nerdy for elections.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It'll be interesting to see the final margins for the House special elections too and the state legislative elections. It does look like the environment has turned and is now pointing to a Republican wave. Democrats have only this Congress to do as much good as they can, the trifecta is highly unlikely to be repeated for many years.

Imo it would be a mistake to necessarily operate on basis of 2022 being a GOP wave going forward. A sufficiently vigorous D campaign with good candidates on the new House maps could hold the House, and a strong D campaign can even net gains in the Senate. Biden has the bully pulpit. If the economy is in good shape come 2022 we have a decent chance of doing very well.
But we have to be ruthless in undercutting GOP messaging for this to make this more realistic, and accept that operating in myopia-land is the recipe for further defeats, which in turn is the way we lose the ability to deliver for our constituencies. Cut the loose ends, throw out the deadweight. Chase the median voter and strike a balance between nullifying R attack lines and focusing on redrawing the battlefield altogether. If some angry people on Twitter throw a fit, who cares? They aren't the swing electorate, their opinion literally does not matter. Rachel Bitofer-tier nonsense doesn't belong in D messaging.

[Blair]

I did think that running against Trump seemed to be very online and divorced from what I imagine people care about- especially when Youngkin was hardly some random breitbart state rep.

Although there’s a chance that a campaign focused on what democrats have done in Virginia would have equally fallen flat- when you’re doing this badly it’s sometimes possible only to focus on rather outlandish efforts to get your own core vote out.

But the biggest worry- if doing lots of popular stuff in Virginia didn’t help, why will passing the two big bills help for 2022? Democrats and progressives are generally awful at selling their record.

[roxas11]

In the end it just goes to show you that voters will find any reason to throw a party out of power lol

This sentence seems to suggest that TMac (quite possibly) losing is the voters’ *fault* instead of the voters’ *choice*

Peak Atlas Democrat brain, y’all

I know this is an old comment but I feel need to respond to it

My final post on election night was not about blaming voters for not picking TMac It was about making a larger statement about how our current political environment works

Bill Clinton famous statement about it being all about the economy, stupid is increasingly no longer relevant today because voters do not reward politicians anymore for a good economy like they did in the past. They also don't punish politicians for a bad economy like they use to because Obama won in 2012 despite the economy still not being great and Trump almost won in 2020 despite the country being in a recession.

looking at this race objectively had this been the 1980s, 1990s or even the early 2000 terry mcauliffe would have won the election just based on low unemployment numbers alone but because of the increasing partisanship, it is hard for either party these days to really benefit from a decent economy or low unemployment numbers

Now in farness I have heard some suggest that inflation is the reason for mcauliffe loss, but to frank with you I'm not convinced that terry mcauliffe would have won this election, even with low inflation because ultimately this race was not really about the economy

it was about this....

[Pericles]

I'm not sure how much visibility this got, but this is a good example of Youngkin exploiting the inflation issue. It also had a positive message, and probably reminded Virginians of the kind of Republican they used to vote for. If the pandemic comes under control and the global supply chain is sorted, Democrats might do ok, but if it's not they'll almost certainly get crushed.

[Umengus]

It'll be interesting to see the final margins for the House special elections too and the state legislative elections. It does look like the environment has turned and is now pointing to a Republican wave. Democrats have only this Congress to do as much good as they can, the trifecta is highly unlikely to be repeated for many years.

Imo it would be a mistake to necessarily operate on basis of 2022 being a GOP wave going forward. A sufficiently vigorous D campaign with good candidates on the new House maps could hold the House, and a strong D campaign can even net gains in the Senate. Biden has the bully pulpit. If the economy is in good shape come 2022 we have a decent chance of doing very well.
But we have to be ruthless in undercutting GOP messaging for this to make this more realistic, and accept that operating in myopia-land is the recipe for further defeats, which in turn is the way we lose the ability to deliver for our constituencies. Cut the loose ends, throw out the deadweight. Chase the median voter and strike a balance between nullifying R attack lines and focusing on redrawing the battlefield altogether. If some angry people on Twitter throw a fit, who cares? They aren't the swing electorate, their opinion literally does not matter. Rachel Bitofer-tier nonsense doesn't belong in D messaging.

In denial you are. 2022 will be like 2014 et 2010. With good or bad candidates.

[ElectionsGuy]

In the end it just goes to show you that voters will find any reason to throw a party out of power lol

This sentence seems to suggest that TMac (quite possibly) losing is the voters’ *fault* instead of the voters’ *choice*

Peak Atlas Democrat brain, y’all

I know this is an old comment but I feel need to respond to it

My final post on election night was not about blaming voters for not picking TMac It was about making a larger statement about how our current political environment works

Bill Clinton famous statement about it being all about the economy, stupid is increasingly no longer relevant today because voters do not reward politicians anymore for a good economy like they did in the past. They also don't punish politicians for a bad economy like they use to because Obama won in 2012 despite the economy still not being great and Trump almost won in 2020 despite the country being in a recession.

looking at this race objectively had this been the 1980s, 1990s or even the early 2000 terry mcauliffe would have won the election just based on low unemployment numbers alone but because of the increasing partisanship, it is hard for either party these days to really benefit from a decent economy or low unemployment numbers

Now in farness I have heard some suggest that inflation is the reason for mcauliffe loss, but to frank with you I'm not convinced that terry mcauliffe would have won this election, even with low inflation because ultimately this race was not really about the economy

it was about this....

48% of voters chose taxes and the economy as their most important issue.



For those who chose the "culture war" issue of Education, 44% still voted for McAuliffe.

[bilaps]

If anything, it looks like we're aiming for 2.5-2.6M, aka 2017 turnout. Could be wrong, but even 2.8M seems like a heavy lift.

How that turned out?

[BigVic]

The Virginia election in the last 3 elections has been trending against the incumbent party who’s in the White House and this year is no exception.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Uh I just looked at the results and What the hell

[roxas11]

In the end it just goes to show you that voters will find any reason to throw a party out of power lol

This sentence seems to suggest that TMac (quite possibly) losing is the voters’ *fault* instead of the voters’ *choice*

Peak Atlas Democrat brain, y’all

I know this is an old comment but I feel need to respond to it

My final post on election night was not about blaming voters for not picking TMac It was about making a larger statement about how our current political environment works

Bill Clinton famous statement about it being all about the economy, stupid is increasingly no longer relevant today because voters do not reward politicians anymore for a good economy like they did in the past. They also don't punish politicians for a bad economy like they use to because Obama won in 2012 despite the economy still not being great and Trump almost won in 2020 despite the country being in a recession.

looking at this race objectively had this been the 1980s, 1990s or even the early 2000 terry mcauliffe would have won the election just based on low unemployment numbers alone but because of the increasing partisanship, it is hard for either party these days to really benefit from a decent economy or low unemployment numbers

Now in farness I have heard some suggest that inflation is the reason for mcauliffe loss, but to frank with you I'm not convinced that terry mcauliffe would have won this election, even with low inflation because ultimately this race was not really about the economy

it was about this....

48% of voters chose taxes and the economy as their most important issue.



For those who chose the "culture war" issue of Education, 44% still voted for McAuliffe.

This poll basically just proves my main point

Terry McAuliffe is losing to Glenn Youngkin on the economy and jobs at a time when Virginia is actually doing even better than the country as a whole and unemployment is at 3.8 percent

Again had this been the 80s 90s or even the 2000s there is no chance that Glenn Youngkin would be beating McAuliffe on that issue when the economy was doing that well. The fact is Terry McAuliffe and Dems literally got no credit for the great economy in virigina would scare the heck out me if were the Dems heading into the 2022 midterms

These results suggest to me that voters may not reward the Dems even if the economy is doing well in 2022 or even if the Dems do pass popular bills like infrastructure.

[President Johnson]

I read this thread earlier on the morning page by page before checking the full results. What can I say? A true mess!

In all fairness, I credit Glenn Youngkin for running a strong campaign and pulling this off. Never expected it to happen, although my optimism begun to disappear in most recent days and weeks. I kinda feel embarrassed, also for ever thinking T-Mac would be a good presidential candidate. He ran a poor campaign in a race was absolutely winnable. Nonetheless, it's a lazy analysis just to say Youngkin had a strong and T-Mac a bad campaign. That's pretty much true, but the Democrats underperformed in other races as well. Even New Jersey is a disaster, perhaps even more so than Virginia.

The Democrats really need to get their sh*t together and run competent campaigns all across the country, although my confidence in them has very much declined. Maybe I'm just having a wrong view over the Atlantic Ocean since large parts of the Republicans have become so extreme that in my European bubble it's impossible to imagine they run competitive elections.

And last but not least, the Virginia election finally puts the "high turnout automatically benefit only Democrats" to rest. I thought that for a long time as well, but hereby confess that I was wrong. Maybe that was sort of true in 2010 or 2014, but certainly no longer the case. Especially as a number of demographic blocs aren't that solid Democratic (suburbanites, Hispanics, etc.). And the Democratic Party better figures out how to address that. So far, they seem pretty much clueless.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Just because everybody loves PQG's masterful post-election analysis:

While it's certainly not the same scale (or even the same nation), last night reminds me of the 2019 UK General.

Practically everywhere you look, right-wingers made gains -- from solidly conservative areas to liberal establishments.  And even places where Labour (Democrats) held on, the margins were strikingly thin.  

--

A year is an eternity in politics.  And we must be careful about extrapolating (or as Russian Bear has tattooed on his bicep: "unskewing") the results of off-year contests towards elections that are twelve months away.  

But as so many on here have stated: the Democrats are in trouble.  If the midterms were held tomorrow, I'd vote straight-GOP without a second thought.  

Of course, my kind of voter is not (and should not) be the Democrats' priority.  They must work on consolidating support under the party.  They must work on getting some sort of legislative consensus.  And there HAS to be more substance than just "Trump"!

Buckle up, folks.  The show is just beginning.  

[Brittain33]

I've been following elections for almost 30 years now and one thing I can say is people are vastly exaggerating the role of campaigns or politicians in losing or winning.

* Democrats have governed Virginia and New Jersey for the last term and enacted a lot of policy
* President is unpopular and general situation is unhappy for most
* A big chunk of voters Dems rely on for their majorities will vote for change easily and flip their votes

TMac's campaign looks inept because it threw a lot of things at the wall to see what would stick. It was beyond their control that nothing could stick in the face of people wanting to try something different and having a Republican who wasn't Trump or a nutcase on the ballot.

Dems are heading into the wilderness below the Presidential level, and it likely leads to major constitutional crises later this decade at the federal level, but it's beyond our control. Let NJ and VA have a different party in charge, that's democracy.

[Person Man]

I've been following elections for almost 30 years now and one thing I can say is people are vastly exaggerating the role of campaigns or politicians in losing or winning.

* Democrats have governed Virginia and New Jersey for the last term and enacted a lot of policy
* President is unpopular and general situation is unhappy for most
* A big chunk of voters Dems rely on for their majorities will vote for change easily and flip their votes

TMac's campaign looks inept because it threw a lot of things at the wall to see what would stick. It was beyond their control that nothing could stick in the face of people wanting to try something different and having a Republican who wasn't Trump or a nutcase on the ballot.

Dems are heading into the wilderness below the Presidential level, and it likely leads to major constitutional crises later this decade at the federal level but it's beyond our control. Let NJ and VA have a different party in charge, that's democracy.

Explain

[MATTROSE94]

I've been following elections for almost 30 years now and one thing I can say is people are vastly exaggerating the role of campaigns or politicians in losing or winning.

* Democrats have governed Virginia and New Jersey for the last term and enacted a lot of policy
* President is unpopular and general situation is unhappy for most
* A big chunk of voters Dems rely on for their majorities will vote for change easily and flip their votes

TMac's campaign looks inept because it threw a lot of things at the wall to see what would stick. It was beyond their control that nothing could stick in the face of people wanting to try something different and having a Republican who wasn't Trump or a nutcase on the ballot.

Dems are heading into the wilderness below the Presidential level, and it likely leads to major constitutional crises later this decade at the federal level but it's beyond our control. Let NJ and VA have a different party in charge, that's democracy.

Explain

Basically Donald Trump attempting to run for a third term in 2028 after his inevitable win in 2024.

[Brittain33]

Explain

Two major concerns:
* Republican House acting undemocratically in certifying a winner in a Presidential race as Trump tried to do this year.
* Republican Senate refusing to confirm Dem President appointees and the geography of current coalitions making it virtually impossible for Dems to win the Senate.

In both cases, our democracy will no longer be working as a democracy. It already isn't - we see that in states like Wisconsin where voters have no effective way to turnover government from Republican leadership.

[Brittain33]

Basically Donald Trump attempting to run for a third term in 2028 after his inevitable win in 2024.

Not what I had in mind, FWIW. I think Republicans got a good view of how good things can be if they don't have this albatross around their neck in the future and can just run against Biden.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Welp.

So long and thanks for all the fish

[StateBoiler]

TMac's campaign looks inept because it threw a lot of things at the wall to see what would stick. It was beyond their control that nothing could stick in the face of people wanting to try something different and having a Republican who wasn't Trump or a nutcase on the ballot.

A political strategist would tell you that's bad campaigning because you're supposed to have a focused message instead of being all over the map.

[StateBoiler]

* Republican Senate refusing to confirm Dem President appointees and the geography of current coalitions making it virtually impossible for Dems to win the Senate.

In both cases, our democracy will no longer be working as a democracy.

I always love the blissful ignorance of people not recognizing for almost the entirety of the second half of the 20th century Congress was one-party government. Or how Democrats ran most southern states for a century straight unchallenged. They only started to have a problem with it when their side was on the losing end.

As a person that has joined the Libertarian Party of Indiana and is now a county party chair in a county where our candidate for Governor in 2020 received more votes than the Democrat, let me tell you that this is all Democrats' fault of they're allowing a small group of people to dictate what the entire national party stands for, completely destroying localism. Part of that is the nationalization of politics which true, Democrats can't really control. But you can and realize and accept you're a coalition with widely disparate views and to do change slower instead of overreaching. (Throw on top of it there is no margin to speak of in either body so nothing is getting through that's not unanimous inside your own caucus.) The Voting Rights Act for example: you could break that into a bunch of smaller bills and get bipartisan support for some of it I'd bet $100 on, thereby creating positive change for the conduct of voting and elections. But they had no interest in doing so without some pet initiatives. You can see it in the infrastructure bill thread the vitriol and hatred for Manchin when Manchin is more representative of what West Virginia Democrats think than what most people on here posting are. People think that just because he has a D next to his name he should rubber stamp anything Pelosi or Schumer put in front of him.

Whatever. If Democrats want to become the Republican Party of the 1930s of a bunch of moneyed city elites out of touch with the rest of the country (including minority working-class voters), I'm not going to stop them. It leads to me having 2nd-party status in my corner of Indiana. I'm running candidates next year and the local Democrats probably are not bothering for the 2nd time in a row.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It'll be interesting to see the final margins for the House special elections too and the state legislative elections. It does look like the environment has turned and is now pointing to a Republican wave. Democrats have only this Congress to do as much good as they can, the trifecta is highly unlikely to be repeated for many years.

Imo it would be a mistake to necessarily operate on basis of 2022 being a GOP wave going forward. A sufficiently vigorous D campaign with good candidates on the new House maps could hold the House, and a strong D campaign can even net gains in the Senate. Biden has the bully pulpit. If the economy is in good shape come 2022 we have a decent chance of doing very well.
But we have to be ruthless in undercutting GOP messaging for this to make this more realistic, and accept that operating in myopia-land is the recipe for further defeats, which in turn is the way we lose the ability to deliver for our constituencies. Cut the loose ends, throw out the deadweight. Chase the median voter and strike a balance between nullifying R attack lines and focusing on redrawing the battlefield altogether. If some angry people on Twitter throw a fit, who cares? They aren't the swing electorate, their opinion literally does not matter. Rachel Bitofer-tier nonsense doesn't belong in D messaging.

In denial you are. 2022 will be like 2014 et 2010. With good or bad candidates.

I'll forgive you for what is a clear case of an entitled attitude (in the sense of 'my party will win even if it is out-messaged, out-candidated, and out-strategized'). After all, if Rs behave like that,  the Democrats only do better. So no complaint about that.
Reality is that elections are typically decided by the median voter. And it is the job of political parties to pursue them, to woo them, to pander to them.
Youngkin's win underlined this. I ask - please no more Bitofer-tier stupidity going forward.
If Ds are better than Rs at what Youngkin did here, they just are likelier to win in 2022. Only the following months will tell us that of course.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

In the end it just goes to show you that voters will find any reason to throw a party out of power lol

This sentence seems to suggest that TMac (quite possibly) losing is the voters’ *fault* instead of the voters’ *choice*

Peak Atlas Democrat brain, y’all

I know this is an old comment but I feel need to respond to it

My final post on election night was not about blaming voters for not picking TMac It was about making a larger statement about how our current political environment works

Bill Clinton famous statement about it being all about the economy, stupid is increasingly no longer relevant today because voters do not reward politicians anymore for a good economy like they did in the past. They also don't punish politicians for a bad economy like they use to because Obama won in 2012 despite the economy still not being great and Trump almost won in 2020 despite the country being in a recession.

looking at this race objectively had this been the 1980s, 1990s or even the early 2000 terry mcauliffe would have won the election just based on low unemployment numbers alone but because of the increasing partisanship, it is hard for either party these days to really benefit from a decent economy or low unemployment numbers

Now in farness I have heard some suggest that inflation is the reason for mcauliffe loss, but to frank with you I'm not convinced that terry mcauliffe would have won this election, even with low inflation because ultimately this race was not really about the economy

it was about this....

48% of voters chose taxes and the economy as their most important issue.



For those who chose the "culture war" issue of Education, 44% still voted for McAuliffe.

This poll basically just proves my main point

Terry McAuliffe is losing to Glenn Youngkin on the economy and jobs at a time when Virginia is actually doing even better than the country as a whole and unemployment is at 3.8 percent

Again had this been the 80s 90s or even the 2000s there is no chance that Glenn Youngkin would be beating McAuliffe on that issue when the economy was doing that well. The fact is Terry McAuliffe and Dems literally got no credit for the great economy in virigina would scare the heck out me if were the Dems heading into the 2022 midterms

These results suggest to me that voters may not reward the Dems even if the economy is doing well in 2022 or even if the Dems do pass popular bills like infrastructure.

The economy isn’t good, dude. Unemployment isn’t the only factor in an economy. Inflation is still pretty high. Inflation is one of the worst death sentences for a party in power, especially because it hurts the working class the most.

[Brittain33]

* Republican Senate refusing to confirm Dem President appointees and the geography of current coalitions making it virtually impossible for Dems to win the Senate.

In both cases, our democracy will no longer be working as a democracy.

I always love the blissful ignorance of people not recognizing for almost the entirety of the second half of the 20th century Congress was one-party government. Or how Democrats ran most southern states for a century straight unchallenged. They only started to have a problem with it when their side was on the losing end.

I love people who jump to conclusions and spout off about people's ignorance because they didn't discuss the subject they had in mind when talking about something completely different, or who like to make sick burns about events 40+ years ago that had nothing to do with them, or who themselves are completely oblivious to how different the party system was before the realignment of the 1980s.

While I'm old for Atlas, I wasn't in fact a Democratic Senator from Mississippi in the 1970s, so you should maybe reconsider what you think I know or don't know or how I feel about historical patterns in the U.S.