Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[Skill and Chance]

Personally, I'm expecting a Warnock/Perdue split decision with both seats within 2%.

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/ryanobles/status/1328378609652862979

This just about always ends up hurting the no-show candidate.  This is probably why Kay Hagan lost to Tillis in 2014.  Only notable exception was Trump early in the 2016 primary, but that was not a GE debate.     

[Skill and Chance]

Hmmm... EV does look great for Dems, but having EV over Christmas week could mean Republicans skew even more toward ED voting than usual.  If it holds, the increase in black turnout for the runoff resembles LA-GOV 2019. 

[Skill and Chance]

Here's the updated turnout numbers by congressional district as of end of day yesterday. Statewide, we are at about 51% of the November general election early turnout. I have some thoughts that I will throw out in a separate post.

District       RV           Votes       Mail (B)    Mail (V)   Early (V)  % of Gen (1-day change)

GA-5         626,977    179,106   113,111    56,656   122,450    57.2% (+4.8%)
GA-4         555,113    168,978   116,459    63,932   105,046    56.1% (+4.8%)
GA-13       573,033    174,657   104,630    57,861   116,796    55.9% (+4.5%)
GA-2         452,270    114,001    68,157    35,865    78,136     53.3% (+4.5%)
GA-8         484,047    126,574    65,591    40,486    86,088     53.0% (+4.2%)
GA-6         542,180    179,765   122,802    69,750   110,015   52.1% (+4.5%)
GA-3         550,621    147,878    82,145    47,561   100,317    51.1% (+4.9%)
GA-12       491,245    117,971    70,560    43,989    73,982     50.0% (+3.9%)
GA-1         532,375    126,610    79,755    43,164    83,446     49.7% (+4.0%)
GA-7         543,452    158,017   103,714   60,316    97,701     49.6% (+4.7%)
GA-10       545,211    153,709    85,498    47,068   106,641    49.5% (+4.8%)
GA-9         540,452    150,806    76,439    47,408   103,398    49.2% (+4.3%)
GA-11       577,393    155,765   115,438   71,200    84,565     46.8% (+4.2%)
GA-14       468,681    109,035    58,279    36,487    72,548     45.0% (+3.7%)

Notes:

• GA-5, GA-4 and GA-13 are heavily D urban metro Atlanta districts
• A lot of black belt is in GA-2
• GA-6 and GA-7 are the Trump'16 --> Biden'20 districts
• GA-9, GA-10, GA-14 are predominately white rural districts and GA-11 is a mix of North GA rurals and Cobb. GA-9 is also Doug Collin's district

Source: https://www.georgiavotes.com/

That relative turnout looks about as good as it could look for GA Democrats.

[Skill and Chance]

If one side wins both runoffs, they will have gotten extremely lucky with winning narrow senate races to form this congress, especially if they both break narrowly for Republicans.

Also, if both seats flip, it kind of destroys the "structural likely R senate" meme.  Biden won 25 states.  If Senate Dems can defeat GOP incumbents in Biden's narrowest state, they are in much better shape than anyone thought after 2018.

[Skill and Chance]

I might just be a political oddball but I do actually care about the deficit and responsible spending and I'm not convinced a blanket $2,000 stimulus check is good policy. I'd much prefer the Dems take some time to lay out all the different options for stimulating the economy (e.g., infrastructure spending, tax credits for parents that need child care for the pandemic), rather than just jump on the more checks for everyone train.

We're in a recession, the deficit doesn't matter right now (and barely matters during times of economic expansion). The best stimulus for this pandemic would be lockdowns coupled with direct aid to businesses to keep them open and direct checks to families/individuals so that they can afford to stay home and keep the virus in check.

Half the population is working from home already according to the polls and doing better financially than ever. Do they really need direct checks?

I disagree the deficit doesn't matter. We're financing all of this in the form of debt that carries interest that the Government will have to pay each year until that debt is paid off.

Who says we have to pay?

Well, as I see it, there are 3 options:

1) Government borrows more money to pay off the interest, resulting in ever higher interest payments. This just kicks the can down the road for options 2 and 3 below.

2) Government cuts spending or increases taxes to pay off the debt. I imagine both would be just as politically unpopular as the stimulus checks might be popular.

3) Government defaults on the debt or prints money to pay off the debt. See Venezuela for why this is a bad idea - hyperinflation, currency would become worthless, bank runs.

Option #4 is that government spending increases future incomes relative to the baseline significantly more than its cost, increasing tax receipts that pay off the debt incurred by spending or at least keep debt neutral compared to the no-stimulus scenario (which may be ugly regardless given the current state of things - or may not be, I remain optimistic about a rapid economic recovery). This may not be the case during a boom period, but it's clearly a very relevant factor in an economic downturn.

Option 4 is plausible and even likely during a historic plague, but it's highly implausible during good economic times like 2017-19, and there is no sign of countercyclical belt tightening during booms.

[Skill and Chance]

Also, if both seats flip, it kind of destroys the "structural likely R senate" meme.  Biden won 25 states.  If Senate Dems can defeat GOP incumbents in Biden's narrowest state, they are in much better shape than anyone thought after 2018.

Said Biden state not only has an incredibly small segment of actually persuadable voters but also happens to be the most rapidly D-trending state of any remotely competitive state (i.e. not CO/VA) in the entire country. If Democrats win these races, it will tell us more about GA's political future and further underscore the fact that GA is rapidly turning/has already turned into a reliably Democratic state than it will about Democrats' prospects in the Senate after 2021 (I could certainly see Democrats losing all of NH/NV/AZ/WV/OH/MT in 2022/2024, all of which might be more competitive than GA at this point, which would still make the Senate somewhat uphill for them in the long run, for instance).

The only reason the GA runoffs even matter is because Republicans were too incompetent to win a Senate race in a Trump +42 state (in addition to losing other winnable races such as MT 2018, MI 2020, etc.). Democrats still have to overcome some serious structural challenges in the Senate.

I agree the bolded states are sure losses, and the other 3 are not sure wins.  However, bouncing back in New England and to a lesser extent Michigan + alleviating CA/NY vote sink concerns in the medium/long run + Alaska and Kansas/Nebraska looking attractive by the middle/end of the decade + Florida potentially becoming a big state GOP vote sink by then are why things look more even now than in 2017 or 2019.  They will be in a hole come 2025, but it would be a lot more manageable with this coalition than the 75% Dem CA, 55% Dem TX, and 55% GOP Midwest/New England world it looked like we were careening toward in 2016/18. 

[Skill and Chance]

This might have been asked before, but any idea on whether the wait for results in this race might be similar to November's elections?

There seems to be less mail-in voting this time around, so it will probably be somewhat faster. 

Keep in mind there is an insane counting bias in Georgia.  Trump was up 2:1 at one point early in the count.

[Skill and Chance]

This runoff is weird.  The polls look Lean R, but the EV data looks Lean D, which is basically the opposite of November when the EV data was an early warning sign that many polls were off in favor of Dems (though less so in GA specifically).  IDK what is going on.  

[Skill and Chance]

I will be surprised if either Republican wins at this point.

[Skill and Chance]

If Democrats win these runoffs and therefore get a Senate majority, their Senate majority will be because:

-Republicans flunked WV and MT senate races in 2018
-Martha McSally
-Narrowly flipping NH-Sen in 2016 and actually investing despite it seeming uncompetitive at first
-2 special elections in 2020
-A runoffs law put back into place by Republicans that was designed to help boost their chances of winning

They also flunked FL in 2018 and NC in 2020.

FL 2018 most definitely, but Biden lost NC anyway so I don't think Cunningham was ever going to win.

[Skill and Chance]

If dems take both GA seats, then 2022 should start off as a lean D election

A Lean D election in Georgia.  A double flip in GA would certainly help GOP prospects nationwide.

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/EricLevitz/status/1344365669207465986

All it takes is Democrats saying we’ll pas another round of stimulus for an 18 point swing? Yeah I’m not buying that. Voters can’t be that stupid to just believe anything they say. Also it’s not just about stimulus it’s about all the very far left agenda items they can pass if they have the senate. I imagine that is in independents minds as well.
I don’t get why so many people are just solely focusing on stimulus checks when this congress will be in form for 2 years

This seems extreme, but if it's even close to the truth, it means the signed $1200 checks singlehandedly saved Trump from losing worse than McCain.

[Skill and Chance]

Suppose the 2 GA seats are 500 and 1500 vote Dem wins after a recount and the election certification is challenged in the Senate.  A couple of questions:

1. Perdue's seat remains vacant until the dispute is resolved, that much is clear.  But what about Loeffler?  If she is still in the senate, do senate rules allow her to vote for herself in the election challenge?

2. Can the VP break a tie on an election challenge, or does it require 51 votes outright to fill the seat?

3.  If the answer to #2 is yes and it was a tie (say Romney and Murkowski vote to seat them), could the senate seat Perdue and Loeffler next week but then reopen the challenge and seat Ossoff and Warnock on Jan 21?  

[Skill and Chance]

If Ossoff and Warnock both won, who would be the senior senator?

Ossoff will because of his last name, per seniority tiebreakers. (This is the final tiebreaker of 7)

I was wondering about this as neither of them have held elected office.  Rather surprised they don't use age!  If one seat was disputed and the other was not, the candidate winning uncontroversially could be seated earlier and have seniority, right?

It would be hilarious if 78-year-old Ossoff assumes the presidency in 2065.

[Skill and Chance]

Let's review what a 51-50 senate can do, realistically

1) tax increases for the rich through reconciliation, and other budget stuff through reconciliation

2) judges and cabinet confirmations

3) infrastructure

4) criminal justice, MAYBE

What isn't happening

1) public option

2) filibuster repeal

3) gun control

4) green new deal, or any big enviro bill

5) immigration

6) 15 dollar minimum wage


Basically, whatever dems couldn't pass between 2010 and 2014 will not be done in 2021 and 2022 either.

I’ll play along with the fantasy that Dems win...,

What about PR statehood ?

(DC too... but that’ll be struck down as unconstitutional)

DC would only be struck down as unconstitutional if they eliminate the Federal District entirely, which is not the proposal.

It would be hilarious if DC was stripped of everything except for the federal buildings, yet still had 3 EC votes because of the 23rd Amendment. Who would even be able to vote in such elections?

The president and the VP at least, right?  It would have flipped the outcome in 2000!  

[Skill and Chance]

Let's review what a 51-50 senate can do, realistically

1) tax increases for the rich through reconciliation, and other budget stuff through reconciliation

2) judges and cabinet confirmations

3) infrastructure

4) criminal justice, MAYBE

What isn't happening

1) public option

2) filibuster repeal

3) gun control

4) green new deal, or any big enviro bill

5) immigration

6) 15 dollar minimum wage


Basically, whatever dems couldn't pass between 2010 and 2014 will not be done in 2021 and 2022 either.

I’ll play along with the fantasy that Dems win...,

What about PR statehood ?

(DC too... but that’ll be struck down as unconstitutional)

DC would only be struck down as unconstitutional if they eliminate the Federal District entirely, which is not the proposal.

It would be hilarious if DC was stripped of everything except for the federal buildings, yet still had 3 EC votes because of the 23rd Amendment. Who would even be able to vote in such elections?

The president and the VP at least, right?  It would have flipped the outcome in 2000!  

Nope, the VP residence would be in the new state. Just the First Family. Though I think that if statehood were to happen, an amendment repealing the 23rd would go through pretty easily.

Well, then future presidents in this system had better be faithful to their spouses!  LOL

[Skill and Chance]

Watched Fox for a second to get their exits:

Direction of the Country? 36% right direction / 64% wrong direction

Worried about Perdue/Loeffler insider stock trading? 56% yes / 44% no

Most important issue?
Coronavirus 43%
Economy/Jobs 27%
Healthcare 8%
Racism 8%

Perdue’s support of Trump? 44% too much, 9% too little, 47% right amount
Loeffler’s support of Trump? 47% too much, 9% too little, 44% right amount

Ossoff trust worthy & honest: 50/50
Perdue trust worthy & honest: 46/54

Warnock trust worthy & honest: 52/48
Loeffler trust worthy & honest: 44/56

Trump’s handling of 2020 election results: 44% approve / 56% disapprove
Raffensberger’s handling of 2020 election results: 59% approve / 41% disapprove

Confident votes were counted accurately in 2020 election? 62% yes / 38% no

Didn't know Fox/AP was doing exit polls for tonight. They are typically better than the Edison ones that CNN, NBC, et al. use.

If accurate, this suggests either Warnock/Perdue or Warnock/Recount.

[Skill and Chance]

Fulton has EDay at 70k today versus 59k in November

Is everywhere up bigtime, or is Atlanta up more than the state? Only relative turnout matters.

[Skill and Chance]

For comparison:

November (Fox)
White College: Perdue +30
Non-White: Ossoff +70

Runoff (CNN)
White College: Perdue +24
Non-White: Ossoff +68

If accurate, expect Dems to overperform November in Atlanta and the Seacoast but underperform everywhere else.  

[Skill and Chance]

First returns have Ossoff running marginally ahead of Warnock.

[Skill and Chance]

Assuming Ossoff wins, who will be the Junior Senator and who will be the Senior Senator? Forgive my ignorance.

Ossoff will be senior and Warnock will be junior.  For candidates who never held elected office, the tiebreaker is the first letter of their last name.  I'm surprised the tiebreaker isn't vote margin.

*If Ossoff has a recount and Warnock doesn't, Warnock could get seated earlier and end up being senior.

[Skill and Chance]

How long until Ossoff runs for President?

16 years, but a plagiarism scandal might force him to drop out. 20 years later, he'll run again & end up getting the VP slot. 12 years after that, he'll be elected President.

Ossoff will be elected president at age 78 in 2064.

[Skill and Chance]

Randomly, GA now also really stands out in the South now if you did a map of states by partisan composition of Senators. All the neighboring states (including FL) have 2 Rs.

This also means that Dems aren't in danger of running out of statewide elected officials in the Deep South anytime soon.  They were going to fall to 0 when JBE's term ends in 2023.  An Ossoff win locks it in to 2026 and probably much longer between the 2 Dem senators and the potential for GA-GOV to flip in 2022.

[Skill and Chance]

What's the timetable for NockOff getting seated. 7-10 business days?

Certifying the results takes ca. 2 weeks in GA.

So, by the time Biden gets sworn in.

That’s also assuming Ossoff is also out of recount range.  He probably will be, but that is not asured.  Ossoff becomes the senior senator if he avoids a recount.