Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[Skill and Chance]

If dems take both GA seats, then 2022 should start off as a lean D election

A Lean D election in Georgia.  A double flip in GA would certainly help GOP prospects nationwide.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Dems lead down to +8.7 in my current model.

Again, based upon my methodology, I would lean towards this number slightly underestimating D's current lead, but that's speculation on my part.

Despite Republican's narrowing the margin, they aren't really netting any votes.



If in person votes broke how they did in the GE, the GOP would need an election day turnout of about 1.2 million to win according to my model.

[Pyro]

https://twitter.com/EricLevitz/status/1344365669207465986

[QAnonKelly]

I wonder what’s next for Loeffler if she’s able to pull it out. I think the whole R ticket is gonna get primaried for next cycle and she’s the weakest out of a weak bunch.

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/EricLevitz/status/1344365669207465986

What’s this weird feeling?
Optimism? Good democratic messaging?? It can’t be true!!! But it is!!!

[forsythvoter]

Just out of curiosity, why do folks think there will be a massive election day vote on 1/5? Both parties have been pushing the early vote (especially in-person) extremely aggressively so if anything I would expect the Election Day vote to be lower as a proportion of the overall vote compared to the November. Also the timing of the election day is not terribly convenient. I know I'm in back to back virtual meetings for work for the first three days of that week since everyone is returning from the holidays and getting things back up and running again. I'm going to drop off my ballot today or tomorrow, but there would be a good chance I just wouldn't vote at all if I didn't.

Maybe rural Georgians just have more free time, but IMO, it'd be more effective for both parties to push the early vote so that they can micro-target their remaining base voters on election day and make pitches for the remaining persuadable voters in the closing days.

[Catalunya]

There seem to be a lot of reasons to be excited for Democrats in these races the last few days. I’m not sure if I want to put it on Tilt D yet, but it’s hard to be a doomer at the moment.

[TML]

Just out of curiosity, why do folks think there will be a massive election day vote on 1/5? Both parties have been pushing the early vote (especially in-person) extremely aggressively so if anything I would expect the Election Day vote to be lower as a proportion of the overall vote compared to the November. Also the timing of the election day is not terribly convenient. I know I'm in back to back virtual meetings for work for the first three days of that week since everyone is returning from the holidays and getting things back up and running again. I'm going to drop off my ballot today or tomorrow, but there would be a good chance I just wouldn't vote at all if I didn't.

Maybe rural Georgians just have more free time, but IMO, it'd be more effective for both parties to push the early vote so that they can micro-target their remaining base voters on election day and make pitches for the remaining persuadable voters in the closing days.

If you look at election results from states which break down the vote totals by voting method (early in-person, absentee, election day, provisional, etc.), you will notice that in most cases Republicans do better on Election Day itself compared to other forms of voting. For example, in North Carolina, Democratic candidates carried the early/absentee vote but Republicans crushed the Election Day vote, carrying them to victory in most cases.

[forsythvoter]

Just out of curiosity, why do folks think there will be a massive election day vote on 1/5? Both parties have been pushing the early vote (especially in-person) extremely aggressively so if anything I would expect the Election Day vote to be lower as a proportion of the overall vote compared to the November. Also the timing of the election day is not terribly convenient. I know I'm in back to back virtual meetings for work for the first three days of that week since everyone is returning from the holidays and getting things back up and running again. I'm going to drop off my ballot today or tomorrow, but there would be a good chance I just wouldn't vote at all if I didn't.

Maybe rural Georgians just have more free time, but IMO, it'd be more effective for both parties to push the early vote so that they can micro-target their remaining base voters on election day and make pitches for the remaining persuadable voters in the closing days.

If you look at election results from states which break down the vote totals by voting method (early in-person, absentee, election day, provisional, etc.), you will notice that in most cases Republicans do better on Election Day itself compared to other forms of voting. For example, in North Carolina, Democratic candidates carried the early/absentee vote but Republicans crushed the Election Day vote, carrying them to victory in most cases.

I agree Reps will win the election-day vote but why do we think the election day vote will be a higher percentage or even the same percentage of the total vote than it was in November? Only about 20% of Georgians voted on election day in November and I would think it's going to be lower in the runoffs because of how hard both parties have been pushing early voting this time.

[compucomp]

https://twitter.com/EricLevitz/status/1344365669207465986

What’s this weird feeling?
Optimism? Good democratic messaging?? It can’t be true!!! But it is!!!

More like "Trump does have some political acumen and figured out how to hit Mitch McConnell where it hurts".

[forsythvoter]

https://twitter.com/EricLevitz/status/1344365669207465986

What’s this weird feeling?
Optimism? Good democratic messaging?? It can’t be true!!! But it is!!!

More like "Trump does have some political acumen and figured out how to hit Mitch McConnell where it hurts".

I do wonder if Trump has made the political calculation that a comeback is more likely if Dems win the trifecta vs. if there's divided government. I assume he's banking on his voters being more loyal to him than the R party leaders and wants to make that clear.

[Adam Griffin]

On the day before Election Day, Trump is coming to...Dalton. Sounds familiar:

The plotted stops of Harris, Obama and Trump:



Besides their presences in the final 48 hours of the campaign, where they are going says a lot as well. Particularly interesting to me is why Trump's team felt the need to choose Rome as opposed to, say, Gainesville or Canton.

(I saw some real internal data broken down by region at the beginning of October: let's just say that Rome/NW GA would make a better defensive choice for Trump if that data was accurate; it showed Trump sliding much more in NW GA than NE GA.)

[ProgressiveModerate]

Just out of curiosity, why do folks think there will be a massive election day vote on 1/5? Both parties have been pushing the early vote (especially in-person) extremely aggressively so if anything I would expect the Election Day vote to be lower as a proportion of the overall vote compared to the November. Also the timing of the election day is not terribly convenient. I know I'm in back to back virtual meetings for work for the first three days of that week since everyone is returning from the holidays and getting things back up and running again. I'm going to drop off my ballot today or tomorrow, but there would be a good chance I just wouldn't vote at all if I didn't.

Maybe rural Georgians just have more free time, but IMO, it'd be more effective for both parties to push the early vote so that they can micro-target their remaining base voters on election day and make pitches for the remaining persuadable voters in the closing days.

If you look at election results from states which break down the vote totals by voting method (early in-person, absentee, election day, provisional, etc.), you will notice that in most cases Republicans do better on Election Day itself compared to other forms of voting. For example, in North Carolina, Democratic candidates carried the early/absentee vote but Republicans crushed the Election Day vote, carrying them to victory in most cases.

I agree Reps will win the election-day vote but why do we think the election day vote will be a higher percentage or even the same percentage of the total vote than it was in November? Only about 20% of Georgians voted on election day in November and I would think it's going to be lower in the runoffs because of how hard both parties have been pushing early voting this time.

I think in general, Atlas has an optimistic perception of who your average voter is.

Many assume because so many who voted in the GE have not voted in the runoff, that must mean E-day will be huge, which it probably will be, but there will still be a notable number of people who voted in 2020 who didn't bother to vote in these runoffs for whatever reason. There's also a notable number of people who did not vote in the 2020 GE who have already voted on the flip-side of that.

I also think 2020 taught many Atlas Democrats a lesson about how much the e-day vote can dramatically change the outlook of a race. Now that means to some that no matter how good the early numbers may look for Ds Republicans are bound to cancel it out on e-day.

Furthermore, only 3% of GE voters who voted on e-day have voted in the runoff thus far.

[forsythvoter]

Just out of curiosity, why do folks think there will be a massive election day vote on 1/5? Both parties have been pushing the early vote (especially in-person) extremely aggressively so if anything I would expect the Election Day vote to be lower as a proportion of the overall vote compared to the November. Also the timing of the election day is not terribly convenient. I know I'm in back to back virtual meetings for work for the first three days of that week since everyone is returning from the holidays and getting things back up and running again. I'm going to drop off my ballot today or tomorrow, but there would be a good chance I just wouldn't vote at all if I didn't.

Maybe rural Georgians just have more free time, but IMO, it'd be more effective for both parties to push the early vote so that they can micro-target their remaining base voters on election day and make pitches for the remaining persuadable voters in the closing days.

If you look at election results from states which break down the vote totals by voting method (early in-person, absentee, election day, provisional, etc.), you will notice that in most cases Republicans do better on Election Day itself compared to other forms of voting. For example, in North Carolina, Democratic candidates carried the early/absentee vote but Republicans crushed the Election Day vote, carrying them to victory in most cases.

I agree Reps will win the election-day vote but why do we think the election day vote will be a higher percentage or even the same percentage of the total vote than it was in November? Only about 20% of Georgians voted on election day in November and I would think it's going to be lower in the runoffs because of how hard both parties have been pushing early voting this time.

I think in general, Atlas has an optimistic perception of who your average voter is.

Many assume because so many who voted in the GE have not voted in the runoff, that must mean E-day will be huge, which it probably will be, but there will still be a notable number of people who voted in 2020 who didn't bother to vote in these runoffs for whatever reason. There's also a notable number of people who did not vote in the 2020 GE who have already voted on the flip-side of that.

I also think 2020 taught many Atlas Democrats a lesson about how much the e-day vote can dramatically change the outlook of a race. Now that means to some that no matter how good the early numbers may look for Ds Republicans are bound to cancel it out on e-day.

Furthermore, only 3% of GE voters who voted on e-day have voted in the runoff thus far.

This makes sense. I think people here think the average voter is much more partisan than I think is actually the case. I just think the practical reality is that many voters are coming back to work to the week of Jan 4th, and so if they intend to vote, most voters are still probably going to choose to vote before that day.

Statistically btw, I think it's actually 3% of early voters who voted on election day in November. Since only 20% of Nov turnout was election day turnout, this means closer to 10-15% of election day voters have now voted early in the runoffs.

[OneJ]

It's almost laughable how hard FoxNews is trying to completely smear Warnock- even saying that the reason Warnock does not have any events scheduled today is because he's hiding due to the "allegations that he ran over his wife's foot ...that came to light recently." (reality these have been out for a long time- and when examined, his wife's foot was perfectly fine).

In some ways it's not even a smart strategy for Fox.  If they are trying to keep the Senate in Republican hands, you would think they would target Ossoff... who polls indicate is likely to get fewer votes than Warnock.  I also think these over the top attacks on Warnock have only served to increase AA turnout.

I believe it's pretty clear that the GOP sees Warnock as the stronger contender who they also found out there's more material that they could use to attack him on. It's also worthy to take into account that Warnock is facing Loeffler who's easily the weaker of the two between her and Perdue. Here's some proof of this:

Brendan Buck, a longtime former Capitol Hill aide from Georgia who is now a Republican operative, said Ossoff is viewed as less of a threat because Republicans have had success against him. Ossoff lost a House special election in 2017. And although the Nov. 3 election was close enough to merit a runoff, Ossoff trailed Perdue by more than 80,000 votes.

Warnock is “going to be the one they’re focusing on because he’s said more stuff that’s out there for them to latch onto,” Buck said. “He’ll be the stronger candidate, but he’ll also be the bigger target in this pact they’ve formed.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/11/24/georgia-senate-runoffs-focus-fire-is-raphael-warnock/

[Cyrusman]

https://twitter.com/EricLevitz/status/1344365669207465986

All it takes is Democrats saying we’ll pas another round of stimulus for an 18 point swing? Yeah I’m not buying that. Voters can’t be that stupid to just believe anything they say. Also it’s not just about stimulus it’s about all the very far left agenda items they can pass if they have the senate. I imagine that is in independents minds as well.
I don’t get why so many people are just solely focusing on stimulus checks when this congress will be in form for 2 years

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/EricLevitz/status/1344365669207465986

All it takes is Democrats saying we’ll pas another round of stimulus for an 18 point swing? Yeah I’m not buying that. Voters can’t be that stupid to just believe anything they say. Also it’s not just about stimulus it’s about all the very far left agenda items they can pass if they have the senate. I imagine that is in independents minds as well.
I don’t get why so many people are just solely focusing on stimulus checks when this congress will be in form for 2 years

This seems extreme, but if it's even close to the truth, it means the signed $1200 checks singlehandedly saved Trump from losing worse than McCain.

[Adam Griffin]

I think anybody who predicts exact dynamics for how Election Day will look is a bit out of their league. The reality is that we have a series of variables that are historically strong coupled with a series of variables that are unique or one-time factors.

For instance, based on the share of 2020 GE voters who voted on Election Day (20%), it would likely be very difficult for the GOP to make up the deficit if those proportions held (they'd need to win 65% or more of ED vote). Still, one could also assume that Democrats doing better in early vote in the runoff compared to the GE would mean whatever ED vote exists will be even more GOP than in November (i.e. increased D cannibalization - a valid viewpoint especially given the uptick in black EV compared to November). Especially given the distrust the GOP sowed for mail voting and even early voting (muh Dominion), a 65%+ GOP ED electorate wouldn't be particularly shocking.

Still, runoff history suggests that a greater share of the vote is cast on Election Day than in standard general elections. In the 2018 runoffs, a whopping 69% (!) of voters cast ballots on Election Day. However, an unprecedented amount of cash and organizing has likely ameliorated this dynamic substantially (i.e. voters not being as aware of runoffs and/or not having to face long lines choosing to vote last-minute are behaving differently this cycle) and turned out way more people early than would otherwise turn out.

In short: we just don't know. As we hit the end of early voting, the raw vote is about 20% lower than it was in November; if you wanted to extrapolate trends from that, we're on track for an electorate of 4,000,000 voters. That'd imply somewhere between 1.2-1.5m ED votes (i.e. ~35% of total vote being ED), so make of that what you will.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Is today, tomorrow, or Friday the last day of early vote?

[Adam Griffin]

And for those who want specifics from November:

Early Vote: Biden +5.73 (80.27% of vote)     52.35-46.62-1.03
EDay Vote: Trump +22.02 (19.73% of vote)  59.95-37.93-2.12

 

[Cyrusman]

Dems lead down to +8.7 in my current model.

Again, based upon my methodology, I would lean towards this number slightly underestimating D's current lead, but that's speculation on my part.

Despite Republican's narrowing the margin, they aren't really netting any votes.



If in person votes broke how they did in the GE, the GOP would need an election day turnout of about 1.2 million to win according to my model.

Is that mathematically possible for the ED turnout to be that high?

[brucejoel99]

Is today, tomorrow, or Friday the last day of early vote?

Today & tomorrow, depending on the county.

[SCNCmod]

It's almost laughable how hard FoxNews is trying to completely smear Warnock- even saying that the reason Warnock does not have any events scheduled today is because he's hiding due to the "allegations that he ran over his wife's foot ...that came to light recently." (reality these have been out for a long time- and when examined, his wife's foot was perfectly fine).

In some ways it's not even a smart strategy for Fox.  If they are trying to keep the Senate in Republican hands, you would think they would target Ossoff... who polls indicate is likely to get fewer votes than Warnock.  I also think these over the top attacks on Warnock have only served to increase AA turnout.

Fox is even running this on their 6:00 News Hour.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Dems lead down to +8.7 in my current model.

Again, based upon my methodology, I would lean towards this number slightly underestimating D's current lead, but that's speculation on my part.

Despite Republican's narrowing the margin, they aren't really netting any votes.



If in person votes broke how they did in the GE, the GOP would need an election day turnout of about 1.2 million to win according to my model.

Is that mathematically possible for the ED turnout to be that high?

Easily sure. The GOP should hope for about 32% of the vote to be from e-day if it were to break the same as in the GE, which is very plausible. The early vote numbers are good for Ds but this is still a knifes edge race as the e-day turnout could be a larger % of the vote compared to the GE and could be more Republican leaning as well.

[Adam Griffin]

Dems lead down to +8.7 in my current model.

Again, based upon my methodology, I would lean towards this number slightly underestimating D's current lead, but that's speculation on my part.

Despite Republican's narrowing the margin, they aren't really netting any votes.

If in person votes broke how they did in the GE, the GOP would need an election day turnout of about 1.2 million to win according to my model.

Is that mathematically possible for the ED turnout to be that high?

And for those who want specifics from November:

Early Vote: Biden +5.73 (80.27% of vote)     52.35-46.62-1.03
EDay Vote: Trump +22.02 (19.73% of vote)  59.95-37.93-2.12

With the black share of EV being where it is relative to November, it lines up pretty well. Biden won EV in November by almost 6 points.