Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[Catalunya]

VBM + IN PERSON EARLY
Nov GE: 4.03M (56.5% white, 27.7% black) ---> +28.8 white
12/15: 483K (53.9% white, 33.4% black) ---> +20.5 white
12/16: 715K (54.5% white, 33.1% black) ---> +21.4 white
12/17: 914K (55.0% white, 32.5% black) —> +22.5 white
12/18: 1.12M (55.4% white, 32.0% black) —> +23.4 white
12/19: 1.34M (55.6% white, 31.6% black) —> +24.0 white
12/21: 1.47M (54.4% white, 32.4% black) —> +22.0 white
12/22: 1.68M (54.8% white, 31.9% black) —> +22.9 white
12/23: 1.88M (55.0% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.4 white

VBM requests
Nov GE: 1.78M (51.2% white, 31.4% black) ---> +19.8 white
12/10: 1.17M (53.6% white, 31.2% black) ---> +22.4 white
12/13: 1.25M (53.0% white, 31.6% black) ---> +21.4 white
12/17: 1.28M (52.2% white, 32.0% black) —> +20.2 white
12/18: 1.30M (52.0% white, 32.2% black) —> +19.8 white
12/19: 1.31M (51.8% white, 32.4% black) —> +19.4 white
12/21: 1.32M (51.7% white, 32.4% black) —> +19.3 white
12/22: 1.33M (51.6% white, 32.5% black) —> +19.1 white
12/23: 1.34M (51.5% white, 32.5% black) —> +19.0 white

VBM accepted
Nov GE: 1.32M (53.0% white, 30.3% black) ---> +22.7 white
12/16: 379K (56.9% white, 30.7% black) ---> +26.2 white
12/17: 427K (56.5% white, 31.0% black) —> +25.5 white
12/18: 481K (56.3% white, 30.9% black) —> +25.4 white
12/19: 525K (56.1% white, 30.9% black) —> +25.2 white
12/21: 570K (55.5% white, 31.3% black) —> +24.2 white
12/22: 621K (55.4% white, 31.2% black) —> +24.2 white
12/23: 679K (54.9% white, 31.4% black) —> +23.5 white

IN PERSON EARLY votes
Nov GE: 2.69M (58.2% white, 26.4% black) ---> +31.8 white
12/16: 336K (51.9% white, 35.8% black) ---> +16.1 white
12/17: 487K (53.7% white, 33.9% black) —> +19.8 white
12/18: 642K (54.7% white, 32.8% black) —> +21.9 white
12/19: 812K (55.3% white, 32.0% black) —> +23.3 white
12/21: 902K (53.8% white, 33.1% black) —> +20.7 white
12/22: 1.06M (54.4% white, 32.4% black) —> +22.0 white
12/23: 1.21M (55.0% white, 31.7% black) —-> +23.3 white

VBM requests now nearly a full point less white than the GE. VBM accepted continues to trend nonwhite, and with half in, is already nearly at the same + white as it was in the GE. In person continues to skew the other way, but we're nearing half the GE mark and still ~9% less white, so we'll see what happens.

This seems to be good news for Democrats so far, right?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Get ready for ex Majority Leader MCCONNELL and hello Majority Leader Schumer

[Motorcity]

Will McConnell stopping the $2000 checks help the Georgia Democrats?

I’m sure Pelosi will get unanimous consent to change the bill,  assuming McConnell doesn’t bribe/threaten a republican house member to oppose it.

Than it would be up to McConnell to both call the senate back to session AND make sure no one opposes it. Incredibly unlikely.

McConnell is power hungry and almost always has the upper hand. Being forced to do stuff he doesn’t support is unthinkable for him, even from Trump. Hell, didn’t trump say McConnell was the only guy that scares him?

McConnell only support the $600 checks because of the senate race. Otherwise he wouldn’t have allowed them in the bill.

Personally, I don’t think Trump will veto the bill. But it puts the two incumbent Georgian Republicans in a bad spot because their leader refused to give more money to people

[GeorgiaModerate]

Will McConnell stopping the $2000 checks help the Georgia Democrats?

I’m sure Pelosi will get unanimous consent to change the bill,  assuming McConnell doesn’t bribe/threaten a republican house member to oppose it.

Than it would be up to McConnell to both call the senate back to session AND make sure no one opposes it. Incredibly unlikely.

McConnell is power hungry and almost always has the upper hand. Being forced to do stuff he doesn’t support is unthinkable for him, even from Trump. Hell, didn’t trump say McConnell was the only guy that scares him?

McConnell only support the $600 checks because of the senate race. Otherwise he wouldn’t have allowed them in the bill.

Personally, I don’t think Trump will veto the bill. But it puts the two incumbent Georgian Republicans in a bad spot because their leader refused to give more money to people

Kevin McCarthy has already said there won't be unanimous consent in the House.

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1341863232470798337

[Motorcity]

Will McConnell stopping the $2000 checks help the Georgia Democrats?

I’m sure Pelosi will get unanimous consent to change the bill,  assuming McConnell doesn’t bribe/threaten a republican house member to oppose it.

Than it would be up to McConnell to both call the senate back to session AND make sure no one opposes it. Incredibly unlikely.

McConnell is power hungry and almost always has the upper hand. Being forced to do stuff he doesn’t support is unthinkable for him, even from Trump. Hell, didn’t trump say McConnell was the only guy that scares him?

McConnell only support the $600 checks because of the senate race. Otherwise he wouldn’t have allowed them in the bill.

Personally, I don’t think Trump will veto the bill. But it puts the two incumbent Georgian Republicans in a bad spot because their leader refused to give more money to people

Kevin McCarthy has already said there won't be unanimous consent in the House.

Oh ok. Thanks for letting me know!


I have a strong feeling that McConnell called McCarthy demanding he get someone to stop the bill. Easier to blame on some random house republican from a safe red district than several Senate Republicans.

Even if a republican stop the vocal consent, Pelosi can just bring it to a floor vote. Regardless it’s going to the senate

[Matty]

Nate Cohn, whom i respect more than any other data yoda, is tweeting daily now that the EV data is beyond dem’s wildest dreams

We’ll see

[wbrocks67]

Nate Cohn, whom i respect more than any other data yoda, is tweeting daily now that the EV data is beyond dem’s wildest dreams

We’ll see

I'd say right now it looks pretty good, but it also remains to be seen how many Rs show up on Election Day too. Maybe more than in november are straying away from any type of early voting. Who knows

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ossoff/status/1341850791309668356
Ossoff's social media person deserves a raise (the Perdue tweet is from 2015).

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1341877178787655680

[forsythvoter]

There is a really neat site that tracks turnout statistics by race, age, gender , county and congressional districts:
https://www.georgiavotes.com/county.php

Here's where we stand in terms of early vote by Congressional District. Does someone have the Biden % by Georgia congressional district?


District       RV        Votes   Mail (B)    Mail (V)  Early (V)   % of Gen

GA-5        626,977 146,440 113,909   47,312  99,128      46.7%
GA-4        555,113 138,298 116,906   54,151  84,147      45.9%
GA-13      573,033 142,969 104,934   48,939  94,030      45.7%
GA-2        452,270   94,762   67,149  31,035  63,727       44.3%
GA-8        484,047 104,517   65,451  36,673  67,844       43.8%
GA-6        542,180 145,785 123,371  60,010  85,775       42.2%
GA-1        532,375 104,833   78,822  38,376  66,457       41.2%
GA-3        550,621 119,161   82,011  40,972  78,189       41.2%
GA-12      491,245   95,762   70,303  37,283  58,479       40.6%
GA-9        540,452 122,754   76,204  42,144  80,610       40.1%
GA-7        543,452 125,860 103,963  50,947  74,913       39.5%
GA-10      545,211 121,666   85,180  38,233  83,433       39.2%
GA-11      577,393 126,137 115,317  61,998  64,139       37.9%
GA-14      468,681   89,653   58,340  33,017  56,636       37.0%

Just eyeballing the top / bottom turnout districts here:

• GA-5, GA-4 and GA-13 are heavily D urban metro Atlanta districts
• A lot of black belt is in GA-2
• GA-10 and GA-14 are predominately white rural districts and GA-11 is a mix of North GA rurals and Cobb

Here's the updated turnout numbers by congressional district today. Statewide, we are at about 46% of the November general election turnout. The urban metro Atlanta districts continue to lead in terms of new turnout, while Marjorie Taylor Greene's district lags. GA-6 and GA-7 are continuing to move up in the rankings as well.

District       RV           Votes       Mail (B)    Mail (V)    Early (V)  % of Gen (1-day change)

GA-5        626,977    164,240    113,345    52,804    111,436   52.4% (+5.7%)
GA-13      573,033    160,682    104,759    54,821    105,861   51.4% (+5.7%)
GA-4        555,113    154,788    116,646    59,748     95,040    51.3% (+5.4%)
GA-2        452,270    104,360     67,576     32,909     71,451    48.8% (+4.5%)
GA-8        484,047    116,461     65,573     38,849     77,612    48.8% (+5.0%)
GA-6        542,180    164,282    123,094    66,128     98,154    47.6% (+5.4%)
GA-3        550,621    133,863     82,041     44,439     89,424    46.2% (+5.1%)
GA-12      491,245    108,689     70,343     41,744     66,945    46.1% (+5.5%)
GA-1        532,375    116,275     79,398     40,553     75,722    45.7% (+4.5%)
GA-7        543,452    142,813   103,766     56,419     86,394    44.9% (+5.4%)
GA-9        540,452    137,513     76,375     45,024     92,489    44.9% (+4.8%)
GA-10      545,211    138,878     85,351     43,273     95,605    44.7% (+5.5%)
GA-11      577,393    141,798   115,509     67,442     74,356    42.6% (+4.7%)
GA-14      468,681    100,019     58,284     35,046     64,973    41.3% (+4.3%)

[Skill and Chance]

Hmmm... EV does look great for Dems, but having EV over Christmas week could mean Republicans skew even more toward ED voting than usual.  If it holds, the increase in black turnout for the runoff resembles LA-GOV 2019. 

[forsythvoter]

Hmmm... EV does look great for Dems, but having EV over Christmas week could mean Republicans skew even more toward ED voting than usual.  If it holds, the increase in black turnout for the runoff resembles LA-GOV 2019. 

Yeah, it's too early for Reps to panic / Dems to celebrate because we don't know how the voting patterns might change during the runoff. The only insight I really take away from all this is that black turnout does look like it will be very strong and it's not going to be turnout that costs Dems one or both of these seats if they lose.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Nate Cohn, whom i respect more than any other data yoda, is tweeting daily now that the EV data is beyond dem’s wildest dreams

We’ll see

I'd say right now it looks pretty good, but it also remains to be seen how many Rs show up on Election Day too. Maybe more than in november are straying away from any type of early voting. Who knows

My model also projects that the final turnout has about a 38% chance of being a Biden majority electorate + another 32% for Biden plurality, the real question is if a Biden leaning electorate will be enough to win. Perdue/Loeffler + 5, 6, maybe even 7 is still possible but at this point it's pretty clear Ossoff and Warnock aren't going to get completely blown out of the water.

[SenatorCouzens]

Nate Cohn, whom i respect more than any other data yoda, is tweeting daily now that the EV data is beyond dem’s wildest dreams

We’ll see

Do you have the links to Cohn tweeting daily "the EV data is beyond dem's wildest dreams"

I saw the other day he tweeted there's "a lot for Dems to like" but nothing at all like daily comments about the EV being beyond Dem's wildest dreams.

I may have missed the tweets, or yours may have just been a troll post. Sorry Atlas can be difficult to navigate!

[Rookie Yinzer]

Perdue/Loeffler + 5, 6, maybe even 7 is still possible

No it isn't. Why would Ossoff/Warnock do worse than John Barrow and Lindy Miller? That's literally not going to happen.

[Frenchrepublican]

I might just be a political oddball but I do actually care about the deficit and responsible spending and I'm not convinced a blanket $2,000 stimulus check is good policy. I'd much prefer the Dems take some time to lay out all the different options for stimulating the economy (e.g., infrastructure spending, tax credits for parents that need child care for the pandemic), rather than just jump on the more checks for everyone train.

Yeah, exactly, from a European perspective the debate which is taking place in the US is pretty weird, I mean, it's logical to compensate the loss of income for the people who are forced to shut down their business, who have lost their job or who are facing reduced working hours because of lockdown and anti Covid measures but giving a $2000 check to everybody, including the federal and state workers who are unaffacted by these measures is wasteful.

[Catalunya]

I might just be a political oddball but I do actually care about the deficit and responsible spending and I'm not convinced a blanket $2,000 stimulus check is good policy. I'd much prefer the Dems take some time to lay out all the different options for stimulating the economy (e.g., infrastructure spending, tax credits for parents that need child care for the pandemic), rather than just jump on the more checks for everyone train.

Yeah, exactly, from a European perspective the debate which is taking place in the US is pretty weird, I mean, it's logical to compensate the loss of income for the people who are forced to shut down their business, who have lost their job or who are facing reduced working hours because of lockdown and anti Covid measures but giving a $2000 check to everybody, including the federal and state workers who are unaffacted by these measures is wasteful.

Common sense solutions are very hard for Americans.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Perdue/Loeffler + 5, 6, maybe even 7 is still possible

No it isn't. Why would Ossoff/Warnock do worse than John Barrow and Lindy Miller? That's literally not going to happen.

It’s a fringe outcome on my model but a Trump +6 electorate is still below the 97th percentile for Rs in my model

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

To Progressive Moderate and to your models, it's not the fact that D's are the underdogs, it's the fact D's are on the verge of accomplishment and winning the Senate and putting us in the position of DC Statehood, Ds know this is GA, but Biden did the impossible and won GA and he was the underdog and Trump was supposed to win by 5.

D's can do it again and win GA, D's are so close, forget silly Models which were wrong and you said ME, NC and FL were happening

[forsythvoter]

Here's the updated turnout numbers by congressional district as of end of day yesterday. Statewide, we are at about 51% of the November general election early turnout. I have some thoughts that I will throw out in a separate post.

District       RV           Votes       Mail (B)    Mail (V)   Early (V)  % of Gen (1-day change)

GA-5         626,977    179,106   113,111    56,656   122,450    57.2% (+4.8%)
GA-4         555,113    168,978   116,459    63,932   105,046    56.1% (+4.8%)
GA-13       573,033    174,657   104,630    57,861   116,796    55.9% (+4.5%)
GA-2         452,270    114,001    68,157    35,865    78,136     53.3% (+4.5%)
GA-8         484,047    126,574    65,591    40,486    86,088     53.0% (+4.2%)
GA-6         542,180    179,765   122,802    69,750   110,015   52.1% (+4.5%)
GA-3         550,621    147,878    82,145    47,561   100,317    51.1% (+4.9%)
GA-12       491,245    117,971    70,560    43,989    73,982     50.0% (+3.9%)
GA-1         532,375    126,610    79,755    43,164    83,446     49.7% (+4.0%)
GA-7         543,452    158,017   103,714   60,316    97,701     49.6% (+4.7%)
GA-10       545,211    153,709    85,498    47,068   106,641    49.5% (+4.8%)
GA-9         540,452    150,806    76,439    47,408   103,398    49.2% (+4.3%)
GA-11       577,393    155,765   115,438   71,200    84,565     46.8% (+4.2%)
GA-14       468,681    109,035    58,279    36,487    72,548     45.0% (+3.7%)

Notes:

• GA-5, GA-4 and GA-13 are heavily D urban metro Atlanta districts
• A lot of black belt is in GA-2
• GA-6 and GA-7 are the Trump'16 --> Biden'20 districts
• GA-9, GA-10, GA-14 are predominately white rural districts and GA-11 is a mix of North GA rurals and Cobb. GA-9 is also Doug Collin's district

Source: https://www.georgiavotes.com/

[Skill and Chance]

Here's the updated turnout numbers by congressional district as of end of day yesterday. Statewide, we are at about 51% of the November general election early turnout. I have some thoughts that I will throw out in a separate post.

District       RV           Votes       Mail (B)    Mail (V)   Early (V)  % of Gen (1-day change)

GA-5         626,977    179,106   113,111    56,656   122,450    57.2% (+4.8%)
GA-4         555,113    168,978   116,459    63,932   105,046    56.1% (+4.8%)
GA-13       573,033    174,657   104,630    57,861   116,796    55.9% (+4.5%)
GA-2         452,270    114,001    68,157    35,865    78,136     53.3% (+4.5%)
GA-8         484,047    126,574    65,591    40,486    86,088     53.0% (+4.2%)
GA-6         542,180    179,765   122,802    69,750   110,015   52.1% (+4.5%)
GA-3         550,621    147,878    82,145    47,561   100,317    51.1% (+4.9%)
GA-12       491,245    117,971    70,560    43,989    73,982     50.0% (+3.9%)
GA-1         532,375    126,610    79,755    43,164    83,446     49.7% (+4.0%)
GA-7         543,452    158,017   103,714   60,316    97,701     49.6% (+4.7%)
GA-10       545,211    153,709    85,498    47,068   106,641    49.5% (+4.8%)
GA-9         540,452    150,806    76,439    47,408   103,398    49.2% (+4.3%)
GA-11       577,393    155,765   115,438   71,200    84,565     46.8% (+4.2%)
GA-14       468,681    109,035    58,279    36,487    72,548     45.0% (+3.7%)

Notes:

• GA-5, GA-4 and GA-13 are heavily D urban metro Atlanta districts
• A lot of black belt is in GA-2
• GA-6 and GA-7 are the Trump'16 --> Biden'20 districts
• GA-9, GA-10, GA-14 are predominately white rural districts and GA-11 is a mix of North GA rurals and Cobb. GA-9 is also Doug Collin's district

Source: https://www.georgiavotes.com/

That relative turnout looks about as good as it could look for GA Democrats.

[ProgressiveModerate]

If one side wins both runoffs, they will have gotten extremely lucky with winning narrow senate races to form this congress, especially if they both break narrowly for Republicans.

[Matty]

Honest question:

is there ANY good news for the gop in any of this ev data?

it looks dreadful.

[Skill and Chance]

If one side wins both runoffs, they will have gotten extremely lucky with winning narrow senate races to form this congress, especially if they both break narrowly for Republicans.

Also, if both seats flip, it kind of destroys the "structural likely R senate" meme.  Biden won 25 states.  If Senate Dems can defeat GOP incumbents in Biden's narrowest state, they are in much better shape than anyone thought after 2018.