Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[Badger]

It feels good that with such a divided Congress, Biden and Pelosi rather than some inexperienced newbies will be the ones in charge of corralling the votes. I don’t know much about Chuck Schumer, he hasn’t had a chance to shine yet but now does-he better not let us down.

I wouldn't mind some back stabbing to replace him. He's been an utter disappointment.

Schumer is better than Pelosi.

Ok, you have this opinion but why? Pelosi has a lot of legislative accomplishments, Schumer has been in the minority and seemingly dropped a few balls.

Literally engineered the saving of Obamacare from repeal. That alone makes him a pretty damn good strategist

[Rookie Yinzer]

So... the election day turnout is likely going to be in the vicinity of 1.3 to 1.4m which is way bigger than even the GOP's wildest dreams and also far bigger than what it was in November, and yet they (republicans) still lost, lol. Who predicted that?

I didn't post it here but I didn't buy that high turnout on EDay was doom for Democrats. There were 100k voters who didn't vote in November and the majority were POC padding their numbers. Also the data showed GOP cannibalized more of their General Election Day voters than Democrats.

[n1240]

So... the election day turnout is likely going to be in the vicinity of 1.3 to 1.4m which is way bigger than even the GOP's wildest dreams and also far bigger than what it was in November, and yet they (republicans) still lost, lol. Who predicted that?

Also, hats off to the NYT needle. Their model was absolutely perfect (probably helped greatly by the last election being so close). If one just paid attention to it and ignored cable news (CNN) or random tweets, they wouldn't have panicked at any moment all night through.

Seems there is a pretty strong case that GOP voters who voted early (in-person or by-mail) decided to resort towards voting on election day this time instead. Absentee by-mail vote swung about 9% D from November, early in-person 8% D, while e-day swung 5% R (average around 7-9% in GOP counties, average is brought down heavily by Atlanta burbs where e-day vote was generally more favorable for Dems relatively).

edit: fixed calcs

[forsythvoter]

Randomly, GA now also really stands out in the South now if you did a map of states by partisan composition of Senators. All the neighboring states (including FL) have 2 Rs.

[W]

want some schadenfreude?

check the comments on this one!

[SCNCmod]

So... the election day turnout is likely going to be in the vicinity of 1.3 to 1.4m which is way bigger than even the GOP's wildest dreams and also far bigger than what it was in November, and yet they (republicans) still lost, lol. Who predicted that?

I didn't post it here but I didn't buy that high turnout on EDay was doom for Democrats. There were 100k voters who didn't vote in November and the majority were POC padding their numbers. Also the data showed GOP cannibalized more of their General Election Day voters than Democrats.

I wasn't worried about turnout of around 1 Million.  But in all honesty- I would have been very worried if I had known turnout would go above 1.3 Million.  

I predicted Ossoff winning by .5% and Warnock outperforming him by about .5% (based on not thinking turnout would go above about the 1.1 Million mark at most).

[Bojack Horseman]

I love Raphael Warnock. We are finally going to have a person in such a high position of power who is a shining example that you don't have to be a stereotypical conservative culture war footsoldier to be a Christian.

[Omolloy]

I feel like high election day turnout is a necessary, but perhaps not sufficient condition for a Republican victory.

This wasn't a particularly hot take, but still, it did end up being rather accurate.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

This is as much Stacy Abrams night as it is Ossoffs & Warnocks.

This forums' complete turnaround of her in the last 2 years (Particularly the last 6 months) has been even more fascinating to watch than the actual races.


From being raked over the coals by for not conceding over voter suppression concerns to being criticized as being "too ambitious" for wanting to be Biden's running mate.

From gleefully mocking her MSNBC appearance with Biden to now championing her as a forebearer of Georgia Democrats and a potential candidate DNC Chair

I really liked Abrams prior to election night 2 years ago... at which time I was momentarily turned off by her quasi-concession speech.  But then I quickly warmed back up to her (chalked election night up to her being totally deflated due to coming so close after so much work strengthening the Dem party).  

And certainly, my respect for her continued to grow as I became more aware of just how effective she has been in helping turn around the Dem Party in GA.

Based on the reaction she got during the Biden veepstakes, you'd have thought she was 2nd to Bernie as the most hated Democrat among Democratic circles.

A lot of folks fighting back attacks of Harris for being "too ambitious" were more than happy to use that same attack on Abrams.

She got quite a bit of unfair treatment in the last year. As long as Georgia grows bluer and Democrats keep winning statewide, I'm never gonna forget that

[Skill and Chance]

Randomly, GA now also really stands out in the South now if you did a map of states by partisan composition of Senators. All the neighboring states (including FL) have 2 Rs.

This also means that Dems aren't in danger of running out of statewide elected officials in the Deep South anytime soon.  They were going to fall to 0 when JBE's term ends in 2023.  An Ossoff win locks it in to 2026 and probably much longer between the 2 Dem senators and the potential for GA-GOV to flip in 2022.

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/cam_joseph/status/1346698568028057600

Nevermind, I guess:

https://twitter.com/cam_joseph/status/1346701360532774913

[OSR stands with Israel]

I'm so happy for America. This is a truly great day for our nation!

While it may not be the result I wanted , congratulations on the victory and I hope good legislation can pass

[Joe Republic]

[H. Ross Peron]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1346695657357250560

[Pericles]

It feels good that with such a divided Congress, Biden and Pelosi rather than some inexperienced newbies will be the ones in charge of corralling the votes. I don’t know much about Chuck Schumer, he hasn’t had a chance to shine yet but now does-he better not let us down.

I wouldn't mind some back stabbing to replace him. He's been an utter disappointment.

How? He's been pretty impotent in the last four years.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

You republicans need to chill tf out. Any legislation has to go through bagel style democrats to pass, my kind wont let this country go too far left so long as we have a say in it.

[soundchaser]

I’m glad Stacey Abrams didn’t get the VP pick, because she was clearly destined for greater things.

[forsythvoter]

Randomly, GA now also really stands out in the South now if you did a map of states by partisan composition of Senators. All the neighboring states (including FL) have 2 Rs.

This also means that Dems aren't in danger of running out of statewide officials in the Deep South anytime soon.  They were going to fall to 0 when JBE's term ends in 2023.  An Ossoff win locks it in to 2026 and probably much longer between the 2 Dem senators and the potential for GA-GOV to flip in 2022.

Yeah, I do have to credit the state Dem party (and by extension, Abrams) for their organization here. I've never gotten so much direct voter contact from any political party up until these runoffs. Folks here seem to think the D trends made this a gimme for the Dems but I really don't think that was the case. The Ds did a good job of both persuading moderate Biden voters to vote for the trifecta while also getting out the base vote.

[Pericles]

It feels good that with such a divided Congress, Biden and Pelosi rather than some inexperienced newbies will be the ones in charge of corralling the votes. I don’t know much about Chuck Schumer, he hasn’t had a chance to shine yet but now does-he better not let us down.

Schumer lacks the ruthlessness to be a great minority leader, but he's an excellent retail politician and an experienced Congressional hand. He won't be McConnell, but that's a good thing in its own way. He'll be a good Senate Majority Leader.

Given McConnell failed to pass any major legislation beyond tax cuts, him not being a McConnell doesn't sound so bad-but I presume you mean he's weaker than McConnell which is terrible news if true.

[BudgieForce]

There's apparently 19,000 votes from Dekalb waiting to be reported but are getting held back by a technical error.

So, enjoy that.

[SCNCmod]

https://twitter.com/cam_joseph/status/1346698568028057600

Nevermind, I guess:

https://twitter.com/cam_joseph/status/1346701360532774913

Why the lag time for Networks updating totals?

[Phenix621]

I can’t wait until that monument towards treachery and cruelty up on Stone Mountain is picked over. Might even happen in our lifetime.

[musicblind]

You guys think SirWoodbury is going to honor his deal?

Of course not.

[Hammy]

I can’t wait until that monument towards treachery and cruelty up on Stone Mountain is picked over. Might even happen in our lifetime.

It'll never go away, too much tourist money to be made.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I’m glad Stacey Abrams didn’t get the VP pick, because she was clearly destined for greater things.

I could've done without the mocking and coal-raking she got among Democrats during the veepstakes.

Nonetheless, I agree