2022 French legislatives

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Raquel Garrido claims to have won over Jean-Christophe Lagarde

The more silver linings the better...

[Logical]

Results for overseas seats 1, 2, and 11 are now up: https://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/fr/services-aux-francais/voter-a-l-etranger/resultats-des-elections/article/elections-legislatives-resultats-du-2eme-tour-pour-les-francais-de-l-etranger

Ensemble wins all three declared.

LREM candidate won 81-19 in Miami because of course lol.

[Biden 2024]

Raquel Garrido claims to have won over Jean-Christophe Lagarde

Sorry for the not-especially-useful posts, but isn't Lagarde that obscure centrist some poster here worshipped like five years ago for some reason? Praying for them right now.

[Zanas]

Meyer Habib just lost, which is satisfying on a number of levels.

[Andrea]

According to Le Monde map, RN is at 85 with 10 runoffs left with a RN candidate in it.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

The newspapers start with a shocking start

[Antonio the Sixth]

France 2 reported Clément Beaune and Stanislas Guérini narrowly survived in Paris. If so, this is looking like a significant underperformance for NUPES even in its supposed bastion of IdF.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Raquel Garrido claims to have won over Jean-Christophe Lagarde

Sorry for the not-especially-useful posts, but isn't Lagarde that obscure centrist some poster here worshipped like five years ago for some reason? Praying for them right now.

He runs a rather unpleasant clientelist political machine in Drancy, the largest municipality in the constituency, essentially.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Villani narrowly defeated, but he doesn't strike me as a true leftist so idc.

[Zinneke]

And the secret is revealed:

Ipsos statistic: 72% of Round 1 Ensemble voters in NUPES/RN runoffs stayed home, with the rest dividing marginally for NUPES. So All that was left in the electorate was LR/UDI voters, who went RN, and the now outnumbered NUPES.

source?

https://twitter.com/MargauxBaralon/status/1538602474113728515

Seems like the abstentions were all round

https://twitter.com/mathieugallard/status/1538611634473664514?s=20&t=YrXLbcn...

Like as I said above, castigate Macron all you want for not making it clear to vote against RN, that's fair, but neither did the left do that.

Macron's electorate have revealed themselves the be the "extreme centrist" types that even genuine neo-liberals like Charles Cosigny have called out. They have zero democratic reflexes and just spit their dummy out at anything that doesn't go their way.

That is to say, this discourse, when it comes from NUPES voters who overwhelmingly stayed home in Ensemble-RN runoffs, is just hypocritical.

Oh you've misunderstood if you think I'm defending so called leftists who don't vote against Le Pen out of reflex. These people are Western labour aristocrats who by their own terms are essentially abusing their "white" or in class terms their labour aristocratic privilege.

It's just telling as to the type of median Macron voter that has emerged particularly in upper class rural settings - no  ideological views or red lines, just naked self interest in preserving established order and a sense of De Gaullian authority. We see in inner cities where a younger right wing electorate has opposed RN much more, either by switched to Ensemble or NUPES from a previous right wing party (LR or Ensemble). Fair play to them but the bulk of Macron's electorate is no longer there. It's just selfish boomers, GPs, and various other high degree professionals.

[Logical]

Given the large number of races decided by <50 votes, how many do you think will be annulled due to irregularities and rerun?

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Oh you've misunderstood if you think I'm defending so called leftists who don't vote against Le Pen out of reflex. These people are Western labour aristocrats who by their own terms are essentially abusing their "white" or in class terms their labour aristocratic privilege.

It's just telling as to the type of median Macron voter that has emerged particularly in upper class rural settings - no  ideological views or red lines, just naked self interest in preserving established order and a sense of De Gaullian authority. We see in inner cities where a younger right wing electorate has opposed RN much more, either by switched to Ensemble or NUPES from a previous right wing party (LR or Ensemble). Fair play to them but the bulk of Macron's electorate is no longer there. It's just selfish boomers, GPs, and various other high degree professionals.

Sure, I don't disagree with that.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

I think LR + ENS need 14 more seats to have a majority combined (excluding diverse right). That will probably happen, although most uncounted are in Paris

(I included 11 outside of French districts (of the 12, i think only one is competitive, the one in Northern Africa).

So they essentially need to win 14 out of the remaining 77 districts. With droite + center, they've 12 more. So LR-UDI-ENS-DIV DROITE are going to have a majority together.

[Oryxslayer]

Oh you've misunderstood if you think I'm defending so called leftists who don't vote against Le Pen out of reflex. These people are Western labour aristocrats who by their own terms are essentially abusing their "white" or in class terms their labour aristocratic privilege.

It's just telling as to the type of median Macron voter that has emerged particularly in upper class rural settings - no  ideological views or red lines, just naked self interest in preserving established order and a sense of De Gaullian authority. We see in inner cities where a younger right wing electorate has opposed RN much more, either by switched to Ensemble or NUPES from a previous right wing party (LR or Ensemble). Fair play to them but the bulk of Macron's electorate is no longer there. It's just selfish boomers, GPs, and various other high degree professionals.

Sure, I don't disagree with that.

I can't remember if its here or another place where someone said both Melenchon and Macron tried to encourage the use of RN as a wall against each other: Melenchon saying no vote should go to RN but then making it the goal to deny Macron a majority, and Ensemble encouraging blank votes in NUPES-RN runoffs. And it backfired on both.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

If things continue like this Germany will be able to win back all lost territories during WW2, because their opponents will be fascist and lose the next war.

[Sir John Johns]

The president of LR, Christian Jacob, has discarded any coalition agreement with Ensemble, a position certainly shared by a majority of the party’s cadres which is unwilling to see their remaining voters continuing decamping towards the RN. Anyway, an open alliance with Macron would probably led to a schism in LR.

None of the three largest parties (Renaissance, LFI and RN) have a tradition and an appetite for things like dialogue, negotiations, compromise and understanding. So, great chance to have an unruly and messy lower house, especially considering the bunch of clowns/hacks/drama queens elected under the RN (Julien Odoul) and NUPES banner (sorry but people like Sandrine Rousseau or Aymeric Caron will not help the left regaining the vote of popular classes). Also lot of influential or experimented deputies have been defeated, in particular among the leadership of the outgoing majority that have been decimated (the president of the National Assembly, Richard Ferrand; Christophe Castaner, the president of the LREM caucus; Patrick Mignola, the president of the Modem caucus; Florent Bachelier, the Renaissance first quaestor) which will not help things.

Meanwhile the upper house is controlled by LR and, constitutionally, the president has no right to dissolve the National Assembly in the year following the legislative election. The election of the next president of the assembly, the approval of the next government (uncertain if Borne will remain in office) and budget will be fun...

[Oryxslayer]

Looks like Ensemble will hit around 250 seats in the end, depending upon how you measure it. Which wasn't exactly outside the margin of error in the polls, but it was at the low end. The NUPES result is also at the low end, which shows RN pulled runoffs that were pegged for both camps.

[Frodo]

Macron alliance projected to lose parliamentary majority in France

[Sir John Johns]

To (partly) explain how we get there, I think it is important to mention just how CATASTROPHIC the few first weeks of Macron II have been, giving the impression that Macron is, at the same time, a totally inexperienced politician who has just taken office at the head of a team of incompetents who discovered the hard way the harsh realities of governing a country AND as the head of an administration that has been in office since way too long for its own sake, being undermined by an avalanche of scandals, lacking new ideas and fresh faces, running out of steam and being totally disconnected from your average voter.

Among the various things that have happened in the latest weeks, there have been:

* all that fake drama and suspense over the new PM and the new ministers that ended with the favorite since months being appointed to Matignon against a background of total indifference (the office of prime minister having been reduced to an empty shell and Borne is a technocratic and uncharismatic figure). The only real surprise (Pap Ndiaye) has only served to drive the far-right totally crazy and has not lost time disappointing voters his appointment was supposed to please when announcing he will pursue most of the policies of Blanquer (anyway Ndiaye has zero latitude to make decision, being an outsider and having his own chief of staff directly appointed by the Élysée without him having his word in such choice).

Nobody has neither been thrilled by the appointment of another cold technocratic woman who has previously shown no interest for environment matters as environment minister (Amélie de Montchalin, whom I’m glad to have discovered I’m not the only one having problems differentiating her from Aurore Bergé; anyway, she has been defeated and will have to resign) nor by Dupond-Moretti remaining justice minister despite being indicted for conflicts of interest (an indictment just confirmed this week). The only motive advanced to explain Dupont-Moretti reappointment in the press is that he is deeply hate by magistrates which convinced Macron it would be a good idea to kept him just to piss off magistrates.

* the accusations of rape made against Damien Abad, the newly appointed minister for Solidarities and LR defector, the government has failed to convincingly tackle (see below). Now, an additional third woman (a centrist activist) is accusing him of attempted rape.

* the disastrous management of the incidents during the Champion’s League finale with the Interior Minister blaming problems on the massive use of false tickets by Liverpool supporters without being able to produce a single evidence and the subsequent revelations that the videos of the surveillance cameras have been automatically erased. Supposedly because of dysfunction in the justice proceedings. I let you decide whether it is a cover-up attempt or just plain incompetence.

Relatedly, everybody is aware since the Yellow Jackets protests that the prefect of police of Paris, Didier Lallement, is totally unable to manage any not public gathering without it turning into a complete chaos with peaceful attendants being caught between vandals and the police. It is also obvious the only tool of the police under Lallement to regulate crowds is just teargassing everybody. Yet, he is still in office.

* the prompt intervention of the Interior Minister (again) on behalf a couple that claimed in the press (Le Parisien) and later on a TV channel owned by Bolloré (in Hanouna’s show, of course) having their newly bought house squatted by a Tunisian family. Said family (with four children) also claimed having bought the house and said having been the victims of a fraud. Anyway, they were assaulted by masked far-right thugs when willingly leaving the house.

Thereafter, it was however revealed that not only the pair was totally aware of the house being squatted when they bought it (hence why they got it at a reduced price) but that both are charged for drug trafficking, illegal possession of weapons and membership of a criminal organization.

* During a radio broadcasting, few days before the first round, Élisabeth Borne was asked by a listener, a disabled woman in a wheelchair, about her disability benefit having been suspended because her husband earned too much money ($1,810 a month). Our new ‘left-wing’ PM suggested the listener that, maybe, she could get back to work, an answer that made the disabled woman cried.

* The government having to deal with a critical shortage of staff in emergency services (with just only some 120 services having to reduce or even suspend their activities...) in spite of repeated warning for years about the serious condition in public hospitals.

* Macron being asked during a visit in Tarn by a high school girl student why is he appointing in his government ‘men accused of rape’ and unable to provide a convincing answer. The day thereafter, the girl received the visit of the gendarmes in her home to question her, supposedly to have more details over a rape the girl has suffered few years ago and mentioned when discussing with the president. The gendarmerie has since apologized.

* the Macronist fat guy at the head of Hunters’ Federation (yeah I have a personal grudge against him but it is totally deserved) complaining that medias are talking too much about the ongoing heatwave and hinting it is a conspiracy to help the NUPES being elected. No matter it is currently 35 degrees Celsius in Brittany, at a time when summer hasn’t even begun, that currently 40 départements have introduced water restrictions because of drought and that farmers are very concerned about losing their harvests because of abnormally high temperatures since the beginning of the year to the point the government has bestowed them financial support last month.

* the controversy over the label of the NUPES candidates and the other one about which coalition came ahead in the first round.

* Renaissance being absolutely totally deranged in their criticisms against the NUPES, using adjectives like ‘Soviet’ or ‘anarchist’ to describe it, and denouncing the horrors that will happen in case Mélenchon become prime minister: French could no longer chopping wood (according to Castaner who will now have a lot of free time) and, a contribution of the Macronist youth movement (JAM), young people could no longer spent a three-day trip in Marrakesh. This latter was raised in a hilariously bad video posted on social networks. It was so terrible and appeared so much disconnected from the daily life of your average student/young worker/young unemployed, the JAM quickly deleted it.

https://twitter.com/Le_Trema/status/1537077295726338049

* Also, Macron’s party being totally unable to agree on a coordinated strategy for the NUPES/RN runoffs, with Renaissance waiting several hours after the publication of the first round results before giving official voting recommendations (clearly, they have not anticipated that). These have changed from one constituency to another one with not much consistency (tellingly, in Hénin-Beaumont constituency, the Macronist candidate announced she would cast a blank vote in the runoff opposing Le Pen to a Green candidate in Hénin-Beaumont).

* More anecdotally, but illustrating the possibility that, maybe, maybe, Macronism isn’t that much different from Lepénisme or Mélenchonisme and is another shade of what is called nowadays ‘populism’ (but could be more accurately labeled as ‘Caesarism’ or ‘Bonapartism’): Macronist pundit Brice Couturier has spent the last weeks claiming the incidents in Stade de France were a sabotage operation staged by Putin (angry over Saint-Petersburg having lost the organization of the Champion’s League) and ranting against the NUPES he described as ‘the party of the medias’. Granted, Couturier is a complete nutcase (former Maoist who is now obsessed by the dangers of ‘cancel culture’, ‘wokism’ and ‘Islamo-leftism’) who is doing too much Twitter but you can see some similarities in the Macronist intellectual galaxy like for example the deranged reactions of ‘prestigious’ publications like La Revue des Deux Mondes after the defeat of Manuel Valls or Jean-Michel Blanquer (‘Manuel Valls fallen for France, the left and its values’ when he was just defeated because voters rightly saw him as an opportunist and a dilettante).

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

All those clickbaity nonsense polls right after the presidential election with those striking 33-33-33 splits or whatever... actually had kind of a point? There is a possibility now that France ends up with a three-bloc system where large numbers of each bloc's voters completely despise the others. Needless to say, this isn't the sort of situation the two-round system was designed for. We just need LREM and LR to finally consummate their natural alliance already and to see what happens with PS and EELV now.

[omar04]

The president of LR, Christian Jacob, has discarded any coalition agreement with Ensemble, a position certainly shared by a majority of the party’s cadres which is unwilling to see their remaining voters continuing decamping towards the RN. Anyway, an open alliance with Macron would probably led to a schism in LR.

None of the three largest parties (Renaissance, LFI and RN) have a tradition and an appetite for things like dialogue, negotiations, compromise and understanding. So, great chance to have an unruly and messy lower house, especially considering the bunch of clowns/hacks/drama queens elected under the RN (Julien Odoul) and NUPES banner (sorry but people like Sandrine Rousseau or Aymeric Caron will not help the left regaining the vote of popular classes). Also lot of influential or experimented deputies have been defeated, in particular among the leadership of the outgoing majority that have been decimated (the president of the National Assembly, Richard Ferrand; Christophe Castaner, the president of the LREM caucus; Patrick Mignola, the president of the Modem caucus; Florent Bachelier, the Renaissance first quaestor) which will not help things.

Meanwhile the upper house is controlled by LR and, constitutionally, the president has no right to dissolve the National Assembly in the year following the legislative election. The election of the next president of the assembly, the approval of the next government (uncertain if Borne will remain in office) and budget will be fun...

So basically, an even less experienced National Assembly but with no majority?

[Logical]

Most ENS-NUPES runoffs actually turned out as the polls and conventional wisdom projected. There is a slight overperformance by ENS but not by much. The problem for both was that they collapsed in races against RN & LR. DVG did very well, which shows that the NUPES/Melenchon label is still toxic among a considerable number of voters.

[urutzizu]

Final results on the basis of all votes counted (BFMTV):
Ensemble! 247 seats
NUPES 147
RN 90
LR 68
Others-left 8
Others-right 4
Others-extreme right 2
Others 11

Considerably on the higher end for Ensemble than the Projections earlier in the night, but still way short of a majority obviously.

[Oryxslayer]

Meyer Habib just lost, which is satisfying on a number of levels.

Sad to report you had the wrong info. Most of the seats are now in - not 3, 5 or 10 - but Habib wins by 200 votes.

https://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/fr/services-aux-francais/voter-a-l-etranger/resultats-des-elections/article/elections-legislatives-resultats-du-2eme-tour-pour-les-francais-de-l-etranger

NUPES did win 9 though.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Too bad that Macron would still have a majority with the Republicans.