2022 French legislatives

[Statilius the Epicurean]

If the 'glass ceiling' for the RN is broken in the runoffs, or legislative elections, honestly it's Macron's fault, in good part. Their rhetoric largely contributed to legitimizing the far-right as an acceptable option when up against the left.

Disgusting stuff. I already regret voting for that slimy bastard.

Yeah entirely true. But like I said elsewhere, it was the left's decision immediately after the Presidential election to organise a legislative campaign based solely on denying Macron a majority. Both left and centre made a choice to use RN to knife each other.

[Mike88]

Clément Beaune is leading in his constituency 50.8-49.2%. IFOP projection

[Oryxslayer]

Ipsos updates estimates. Macron gains some seats, RN and NUPES down a few.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

3/3 for the RN in the Aude. Eeep.

Hahaha, it seems as if the RN may have *lost* Pas-de-Calais-3 to NUPES' candidate, the PCF mayor of Avion (a Communist stronghold in the mining basin). A big blow to the Narrative.

https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/legislatives-2022/062/06203.html

Well at least there are a few deeply funny results against the grain here and there.

[DavidB.]

New update from IFOP: Ensemble+LR/UDI+DD have a narrow 293 seat majority.

That would be very good news. In that case, the NUPES project failed.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

The thing about the French left - and this isn't just a Mélenchon thing, even if that may not help with a lot of people - is that it has so few recent positive achievements and so many black marks on its record that it's gotten to the point where you can say literally anything bad about it and lots of people will happily believe you. This is how the 'islamo-gauchisme' smear stuck so well and Macron wouldn't have been able to toxify NUPES to the extent his voters are willing to go for the FN over them in large numbers if it weren't the case.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

New update from IFOP: Ensemble+LR/UDI+DD have a narrow 293 seat majority.

That would be very good news. In that case, the NUPES project failed.

That's with LR/UDI included.

[Blair]

What figure where the front nationale expected to get?

It seemed price in to a degree that Macron could lose his majority but Panzergirls lot seems to have done a lot better than I expected.

[Mike88]

Any projections for LFI specifically?

IPSOS have them at 83 seats:

https://twitter.com/IpsosFrance/status/1538601631092203520?cxt=HHwWgICzgYOCm9oqA...

[Mike88]

RN has already 59 MPs elected. Ensemble 128 and NUPES 54.

[Octowakandi]

I'm surprised LR/UDI did as well as they did legislatively considering how poorly they didn't during the presidential. Thought the party was dead.

[Oryxslayer]

RN has already 59 MPs elected. Ensemble 128 and NUPES 54.

Their not going to get many more exponentially, cause these were the rurals they were expected to win. The urban seats are mostly Ensemble v NUPES.

What figure where the front nationale expected to get?

It seemed price in to a degree that Macron could lose his majority but Panzergirls lot seems to have done a lot better than I expected.

50-60 seats was the high water mark for most. They will be adding seats to the 65 done and counted, cause they got seats in the urban south and Nord.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

RN wins Seine-et-Marine 6. Yeah, the cordon was somewhat transferred to the radical Left and RN got transfers. lots of transfers, this is a seat Macron won by more than 10 points. D-A probably wins in Essonne.

If the cordon really was transferred to the left, i would never vote centrist again.

If centrists really think the far left is worse than the far-right than they're worse than them.

[Good Habit]

If the cordon really was transferred to the left, i would never vote centrist again.

If centrists really think the far left is worse than the far-right than they're worse than them.

Well "Liberals" always prefered fascism to "socialism". (except when it's part of a great power struggle- in that case you could accept Stalin over Hitler - but never domestically...)

[KaiserDave]

New update from IFOP: Ensemble+LR/UDI+DD have a narrow 293 seat majority.

That would be very good news. In that case, the NUPES project failed.

Not at all? Not even a little bit

[FredLindq]

RN 73 elected with 200 seats left. Still many in the North and South to be counted. Could they reach 90 or even 100 seats?!

[LAKISYLVANIA]

In LCI, pundits are already saying that this Parliament will not last, and that Melénchon's speech was the "kick off" speech for a snap legislative election campaign.

snap election. Will Macron do a snap election.

Macron loses an election and will call a snap election,

and..

that is supposed to be democratic.

[Logical]

IFOP final projection
ENS 230-240
NUPES 165-175
RN 80-85
LR+ 62-68
DVG 8
DVD 8
OTH 6

[If my soul was made of stone]

especially seeing as Mélenchon seemed to go full hippie/FREE ASSANGE in the last week in a way that I can't imagine was necessarily the most appealing to the sort of voters who decide those run-offs.

Méluche serenading us with La société du spectacle rhetoric on the commodification of time was pretty iconic, but I don't exactly know what the intended audience was. I can easily imagine the Situationists all ending up like my "hippie got a white-collar job" father, or just going so deep into the machinery that it totalizes them, or, you know, dying.

[Zanas]

Stanislas Guérini seems gone.

Wait no not sure actually

[Conservatopia]

This is the best result I could realistically hope for.

- Far right surge
- Mainstream right still a credible force
- NUPES far from majority
- Ensemble+UDC with majority so hopefully a rightwing PM
- Right wing normalised and nicely set up for next election

Yes, this went better than I could have hoped for.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

especially seeing as Mélenchon seemed to go full hippie/FREE ASSANGE in the last week in a way that I can't imagine was necessarily the most appealing to the sort of voters who decide those run-offs.

Méluche serenading us with La société du spectacle rhetoric on the commodification of time was pretty iconic, but I don't exactly know what the intended audience was. I can easily imagine the Situationists all ending up like my "hippie got a white-collar job" father, or just going so deep into the machinery that it totalizes them, or, you know, dying.

And at least whether or not Assange did a sex crime is somewhat more in question than with the Movie Man Who Makes Good Movies And Thus Can Do No Wrong.

[Oryxslayer]

And the secret is revealed:

Ipsos statistic: 72% of Round 1 Ensemble voters in NUPES/RN runoffs stayed home, with the rest dividing marginally for NUPES. So All that was left in the electorate was LR/UDI voters, who went RN, and the now outnumbered NUPES.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Better exit poll for NUPES.



Roussel re-elected.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

And the secret is revealed:

Ipsos statistic: 72% of Round 1 Ensemble voters in NUPES/RN runoffs stayed home, with the rest dividing marginally for NUPES. So All that was left in the electorate was LR/UDI voters, who went RN, and the now outnumbered NUPES.

Macron has done more for the normalization and then institutionalization of the far right in France than anyone since Charles Maurras. I hope Flanby is ashamed of himself for giving this creep a career.