2022 French legislatives

[Zinneke]

LR have, errr, ran out of money and will likely run a skeletal campaign.

I still think the Left should get over itself and realise THIS is their election rather than the personalist sh**tshow that is the presidential one. Macron having to govern with the Left is a sound outcome. He can do the broad line foreign and defence policy (the only buttons on the Presidential dashboard that actually work anyway) and they can lead the social reforms required. LFI minus the Putinist alter-globalist Chavista-loving tosh is a program that can work.

However, Mélenchon and his cultists have typically started things off as undiplomatically as possible - by saying that they will only accept allianced with the smaller Left parties if these "accept the LFI program" - typically triumphalist "No True Scotsman" guff instead of just being extremely machiavellian and adapting their program according to what works best with xyz electorate.

https://twitter.com/afpfr/status/1514165591535501321

Imagine thinking this tone is conciliatory and Jadot and Roussel will suddenly wake up, read it and cuck themselves so easily.

[Zinneke]

They've agreed to it, but this is the last nail in the coffin for them. The party will rip apart because many will still want to hedge their bets tying themselves to Macronisme instead of following the diktat of the Strasserite Robespierre redux.

Overall I'm sad because it's the final death of the pro-EU Left. And of the governmental Left in general. I would still vote for a joint LFI-PS-EELV-PCF ticket if it weren't for janluk - he is an execrable social fascist and any legislative gain serves to reinforce his image. A shame Roussel cannot be put front and centre this campaign.

[Zinneke]

There's several reasons why in locals the PS and EELV do better. LFI are overestimating their appeal. It's clear the "vote utile" pushed a politician regularly polling 10% to his dizzy heights of 20 and 3rd place.

Also it's only natural that in locals incumbents have an advantage. "If you want to get elected locally you just have to be an incumbent" is a regular joke in political circles. In big cities the trend towards EELV and PS is more fundamentally because they a) trust these people with things like bike lanes but have no trust in them to stick to their manifestos at national level b) have generally better candidates (Piolle is a better politician tha Jadot I'll admit now, but he couldn't be a team player).

They've agreed to it, but this is the last nail in the coffin for them. The party will rip apart because many will still want to hedge their bets tying themselves to Macronisme instead of following the diktat of the Strasserite Robespierre redux.

The question of whether the Socialist Party should ally with the larger party to its left or instead with the non-Gaullist right feels very fifty years ago.

Put it this way though, if the PS dies we no longer have a serious left-wing force that is pro-EU.

[Zinneke]

The Parti Radical de Gauche have rejected any alliance with LFI saying that Europe and the Republic are non-negotiable. Logical decision.

Btw. are talks also including regionalist parties, Corsican or Breton ones?

It varies massively according to regions. EELV are the party that usually tries to federate regionalists but this alliance with LFI might compromise that, depending on if Mélenchon can "behave" a bit (he has so far, to his credit).

What's interesting is that regionalists are (finally) trying to create a national movement (this isn't contradictory given how horrifically centralised France is compared to its neighbours and how regionalism as a national movement would do a world of good to its Paris-based political class) https://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/les-regionalistes-se-structurent-pour-peser-en-vue-des-legislatives-20220121

[Zinneke]

Valls is running as an LREM Candidate

Ugh

[Zinneke]

Valls is running as an LREM Candidate

Ugh

Time to get the old classics out!

https://www.legorafi.fr/2022/04/10/emmanuel-macron-jappelle-solennellement-manuel-valls-a-arreter-son-harcelement-par-sms/

https://twitter.com/le_gorafi/status/861917283551203328

https://twitter.com/le_gorafi/status/1249761985115426827

[Zinneke]

Are Nouvelle Donne running with the joint list? Their spokesperson seemed to be one of the big supporters of left wing unity and it'd be a shame if Nouvelle Donne disappeared.

[Zinneke]

What problem people have with Melenchon?

I've listed all the issues I have of him in another thread. Mostly his most disgusting stance given the moment is his pro-Russian Alignment views. This is a guy that said Russia would solve the Syrian civil war and that they were not an aggressor in the current Ukraine conflict.

In terms of his polarising image in France though, it largely surrounds his character and the fact that his minions are absolutely insufferable online.

[Zinneke]

Valls will face a dissident LREM challenge from the Spain-Portugal incumbent, who was popular with the LREM faction according to sources.

[Zinneke]

Predictably the storm is slowly merging into becoming about his ethnicity, with LFI candidates playing on the canard that all Arabs are aggressive in language and tone ergo its racist (and classist) that people are attacking him on his previous statements about white women being "whores" for trying to act like Rosa Parks...*sigh*

[Zinneke]

Look, I can totally see this as PCF looking after their self-interest. On the other hand, LFI are exploiting the same tropes as the far right by saying that calling white women activists whores is "just what working class French arabs do, fam" - like seriously, this guy is a piece of sh**t and whether he exposes police brutality or not doesn't change that fact!

I'm not concern trolling here, I'm just angry we've let the hegemony on the left fall to rank amateurs in LFI who fall time and time again into the trap the French Right sets them.

[Zinneke]

... his previous statements about white women being "whores" for trying to act like Rosa Parks...*sigh*

He said what now? Can definitely believe that media coverage related to the man is racist and nasty, but you really don't want anyone who has said anything that overtly misogynistic running for public office, particularly not in a marginal district?

Actually its worse : he called an LGBT sex worker a "white whore" for wanting to act like Rosa Parks for standing up for women's rights

As well as several choice tweets about Charlie Hebdo caricaturists asking for it...

[Zinneke]

He’s also been convicted in a court of law for racism, and not even for that incident. But I’m sure the cross-Atlantic folk know better! You guys are so desperate to make any vaguely ancap Left work you’re cheerleading a social fascist pro-Putin demagogue in France. I can understand this , but it’s  it’s like going abstinent in lockdown and then going out and settling for the 60 year old washed out hooker. Have some decorum and standards guys, and expect better from people who call themselves left wing.

[Zinneke]

Lots of talk on twitter now that Taha Bouhafs is giving up his candidacy for the seat. Haven't seen anything official yet though.

Edit: found a more official story on it. https://www.bfmtv.com/politique/elections/legislatives/j-ai-essaye-mais-je-n-y-arrive-plus-taha-bouhafs-ouvre-la-porte-a-son-retrait-aux-legislatives_AN-202205100074.html

Good, he's sexist and racist and almost certainly homophobic. Pretty much a leftwing Zemmour. What the hell was LFI thinking by keeping him? Just because he's Arab?

Because he's a good sectarian fireband who would have eventually been deployed against PS-EELV-PCF who are Rightists and cultural elitists.

Also love how the LFI automatons spun his candidacy as the "guy who exposed the Benalla affair" when all he did is take the video and it was Le Monde that made the discovery...a paper not 3 days ago LFI's lider maximo called an extreme right publication!

Anyway all this shows that NUPES is a marriage of convenience for everyone with zero ideological consistency. This is not la Gauche Plurielle where actors understood that there was a government program to be negotiated and enacted but this is really about maintaining groupings in the Assembly given Macron would have headed for a wipeout with LR in financial difficulty and a divided Left and far right. Really what the NUPES alliance should have done rather than have aspirations of governing the country is run an election entirely on 2 issues of proportional representation and decentralization : this would actually save their different tendencies and allow voters to choose according to their principles rather than what the media are saying is the "useful vote". Decentralization would be a populist tagline but more importantly an attempt to dilute power from the Elysée as its an institution that is simply not made to be occupied by any remotely left-wing politician until there is a generational shift. They need to adopt a similar strategy to the Left in the UK with devolution.

[Zinneke]

He’s also been convicted in a court of law for racism, and not even for that incident. But I’m sure the cross-Atlantic folk know better! You guys are so desperate to make any vaguely ancap Left work you’re cheerleading a social fascist pro-Putin demagogue in France. I can understand this , but it’s  it’s like going abstinent in lockdown and then going out and settling for the 60 year old washed out hooker. Have some decorum and standards guys, and expect better from people who call themselves left wing.

...

...

very thankful for America so often in these sorts of threads.

He’s also been convicted in a court of law for racism, and not even for that incident. But I’m sure the cross-Atlantic folk know better! You guys are so desperate to make any vaguely ancap Left work you’re cheerleading a social fascist pro-Putin demagogue in France. I can understand this , but it’s  it’s like going abstinent in lockdown and then going out and settling for the 60 year old washed out hooker. Have some decorum and standards guys, and expect better from people who call themselves left wing.

"Convicted in a court of law for racism" is about as morally comprehensible as "Convicted in a court of law for thought crimes." As much as I dislike this guy, I don't view that as indicative of anything but European contempt for free speech.

[Zinneke]

Actually my meme was trying to ensure the thread didn't derail into a discussion about freedom of speech in the US vs France, but you've hit the nail on the head regarding Vosem and generic blue avatar's ignorance in intervening on the matter.

[Zinneke]

Don't care about the overall result now, I just wanted to see that slimy, lying carpet bagging careerist cockwomble piss off from our TV screens forever.

[Zinneke]

Macron's electorate have revealed themselves the be the "extreme centrist" types that even genuine neo-liberals like Charles Cosigny have called out. They have zero democratic reflexes and just spit their dummy out at anything that doesn't go their way.

With RN getting as many seats as it did, we are getting a more proportional outcome than usual. For supporters of proportional representation, todays outcome provides a glimmer of what the future with pr could be like.

This is wrong on so many levels though. If you present the electorate a proportional system their voting patterns change. The behaviour of politicians changes too. The cat's out if the bag though, in France's case. 2 of the main parties that are in opposition are overtly Putinist and want to hand Europe back to being the plaything of major powers. A proportional system would have exposed the flaws of dealing with such parties that have risen only because of the central Presidential figure that they wish to oppose. A hyper presidientialist model inevitably leads to the social fascim of Meluche, the centrist corporatist BFM fascism of Macron and the bread and butter fascism of Le Pen.

[Zinneke]

And the secret is revealed:

Ipsos statistic: 72% of Round 1 Ensemble voters in NUPES/RN runoffs stayed home, with the rest dividing marginally for NUPES. So All that was left in the electorate was LR/UDI voters, who went RN, and the now outnumbered NUPES.

source?

https://twitter.com/MargauxBaralon/status/1538602474113728515

Seems like the abstentions were all round

https://twitter.com/mathieugallard/status/1538611634473664514?s=20&t=YrXLbcn...

Like as I said above, castigate Macron all you want for not making it clear to vote against RN, that's fair, but neither did the left do that.

Macron's electorate have revealed themselves the be the "extreme centrist" types that even genuine neo-liberals like Charles Cosigny have called out. They have zero democratic reflexes and just spit their dummy out at anything that doesn't go their way.

That is to say, this discourse, when it comes from NUPES voters who overwhelmingly stayed home in Ensemble-RN runoffs, is just hypocritical.

Oh you've misunderstood if you think I'm defending so called leftists who don't vote against Le Pen out of reflex. These people are Western labour aristocrats who by their own terms are essentially abusing their "white" or in class terms their labour aristocratic privilege.

It's just telling as to the type of median Macron voter that has emerged particularly in upper class rural settings - no  ideological views or red lines, just naked self interest in preserving established order and a sense of De Gaullian authority. We see in inner cities where a younger right wing electorate has opposed RN much more, either by switched to Ensemble or NUPES from a previous right wing party (LR or Ensemble). Fair play to them but the bulk of Macron's electorate is no longer there. It's just selfish boomers, GPs, and various other high degree professionals.

[Zinneke]

Is there any chance of the other parties under the Macronist specter betraying Dear Leader or are all of them basically non-entities?

Horizons is the personal vehicle of Edouard Philippe and there are definitely rumours that Macron's political vehicle were very reluctant to give the ex-PM a political space. I highly doubt they leave the majority but they follow their own Dear Leader, not Macron's inner circle.

[Zinneke]

And the secret is revealed:

Ipsos statistic: 72% of Round 1 Ensemble voters in NUPES/RN runoffs stayed home, with the rest dividing marginally for NUPES. So All that was left in the electorate was LR/UDI voters, who went RN, and the now outnumbered NUPES.

Anyone who now supports Macron is more evil than the far-right itself.

This is just obviously untrue, I don't think there's anything more to be said.

it's proven this night.

I really don't think people who stay home in left-far right runoffs are worse than people who actually vote for the far right, although they've definitely earned a place chasing the banner in the vestibule of hell.

Do people like Laki who advocated for voting for the far right over Macron as a leftist also belong in a "vestibule of hell"?

Laki has his reasons and I don't think they are as cynical as the vast majority of those who abstained when faced with a ENS-RN or NUPES-RN run off.

[Zinneke]

Also comparing an online poster with powerful and influential people around Macron is whataboutery, pure and simple. Equating the mainstream left with the far right is not only morally disgusting but just about the most myopic and short term "strategising" imaginable.

To be fair I saw Le Monde post showing that the LREM losers in the first round who had NUPES-RN as a run off many endorsed NUPES or explicitly said not to vote RN.

Lors de sa prise de parole ce dimanche soir, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, a dénoncé « l’échec moral » de la majorité présidentielle, estimant que « sur 65 face-à-face entre la Nupes et le Rassemblement national, les donneurs de leçons de la macronie ont été incapables de donner une consigne claire dans 52 cas ».

Mais le leadeur de La France insoumise (LFI) exagère. Selon notre décompte, il y avait pour ce second tour des législatives 61 duels entre un candidat d’extrême droite (RN, Debout la France ou autre) et un candidat de la Nupes. Nous avons recensé les consignes et réactions des candidats d’Ensemble ! défaits dans ces 61 circonscriptions.

Avant ce 19 juin :

*16 candidats de la majorité présidentielle avaient clairement appelé à voter pour leur ex-rival de gauche ;
*16 avaient appelé à ne pas voter pour le RN ;
*12 étaient sur une ligne « ni-ni » ou souhaitaient voter blanc ;
*15 ne donnaient pas de consigne de vote ;
*2 ne s’étaient pas exprimés.

Ainsi, au moins 32 candidats d’Ensemble ! avaient donné une consigne claire pour ce second tour, contrairement à ce qu’affirme M. Mélenchon

It's not as clearcut , Macron should have communicated better.

[Zinneke]

Why is the Côte d'Azur so far-right?

. Who do you resent when you live in a place like Antibes or Cannes? 

The people who visit Antibes and Cannes

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/jo_redachef/status/1538893092715122688?t=KJFBG-1DU85-PX3O_1u...

16k votes and NUPES would have potentially overtaken Ensemble. Fine margins.