2022 French legislatives

[Zanas]

To be clear to y'all, there will not be a "Nupes group", regardless of result and of how well they all get along. It was stated in the pact that each one would get to establish their own group, and it looks very likely they will be able to, so there will be an LFI group (80-120 seats), an EELV group (20-40 seats), a PS group (25-40 seats), and most certainly a PCF+overseas group like the outgoing GDR, which is the most at risk, but PCF should save their 11, reconquer a couple, and get a couple overseas more to reach 15.

They have, however, agreed to present Mélenchon to a vote for PM, whether they are a majority or not, and on a couple quite loose programmatic points. Other than that, it's mostly game.

[Sir Mohamed]

If LREM fails to get a majority and in a few months Macron realizes he can't get stuff done, could he dissolve the legislative branch and call for snap election? Sorry for asking this potentially stupid question, I'm just not that familiar with French elections besides the presidency.

[Logical]

If LREM fails to get a majority and in a few months Macron realizes he can't get stuff done, could he dissolve the legislative branch and call for snap election? Sorry for asking this potentially stupid question, I'm just not that familiar with French elections besides the presidency.

He absolutely could. Of course, such a move is risky. The economy isn't getting better in the near term and there's no guarantee that he will win a majority in a new election.

[Mike88]

38.1% turnout at 5pm. A 2.8% increase compared with 2017, but a 1.3% decrease compared with the 1st round a week ago.

Ipsos is projecting a 46% turnout rate in the second round, a 1.5% decrease compared with last week.

[Mike88]

With the American and Oceanian constituencies counted, plus with the 5 MPs already elected in the 1st round, the seat tally is as follow:

20 NUPES (+9)
  6 Ensemble (-4)
  1 UDC (-6)
  1 Others (+1)

[Oryxslayer]

I thought Reunions polls closed a bit later?

Anyway, this is official NUPES candidate vs local leftist in the 5th.

https://twitter.com/AfricaElect/status/1538542133719752705?s=20&t=2lsjUg2g3z...

Exit estimations put the conservative incumbent on top in the 3rd.

Estimates between the official NUPES and a local leftist in the 6th are close.

[Mike88]

Results link: https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/legislatives-2022/index.html

Live TV coverage:

TF1

LCI

France24

BFMTV
https://www.bfmtv.com/en-direct/

[Oryxslayer]

Incumbent Republican in Reunion 4 concedes to NUPES backed Emeline K/Bidi.

Reunion 7 is expected to be tight.

https://twitter.com/AfricaElect/status/1538554879437852673?s=20&t=2lsjUg2g3z...

[Mike88]

If there's a tie, what next? A rerun?

[Icehand Gino]

If there's a tie, what next? A rerun?

Oldest candidate wins.

[Oryxslayer]

If there's a tie, what next? A rerun?

Recount requests were mentioned as possibilities in tight Wallis and Futuna, as well as St. Pierre & Miquelon. So those can happen. But be aware that bar chart is not a final count, it is essentially an exit poll but more localized.

[Mike88]

If there's a tie, what next? A rerun?

Recount requests were mentioned as possibilities in tight Wallis and Futuna, as well as St. Pierre & Miquelon. So those can happen. But be aware that bar chart is not a final count, it is essentially an exit poll but more localized.

Yes, of course, it's just a curiosity. When there's few ballots to count, in tight elections, a tie is very possible. We'll have to wait for the final result.

Oldest candidate wins.

The incumbent, right?

[Andrea]

Reunion count well underway

Nailet (PS), Lebon (PLR), Bassire (DVD), Ratenon (LFI) re-elected.  Maillot (LFI) gain the 6th constituency (the LR incumbent was eliminated last week).

Emeline K’Bidi (PLR-NUPES) gains the 4th constituency from David Lorion (LR).

As said above, it is close in the 7th constituency between Thierry Robert and Perceval Gaillard

[Andrea]

According to the live coverage on the Reunion local paper, Perceval Gaillard has won.

[Oryxslayer]

According to the live coverage on the Reunion local paper, Perceval Gaillard has won.

Less has won, rather his opponent conceded.

[Logical]

Small bits of results just for fun. A tiny community in the triangulaire of Nièvre 2nd.

First round
RN - 58
NUPES - 41
ENS - 27

Second round
RN - 59
NUPES - 49
ENS - 33
https://twitter.com/com_planchez/status/1538568933069955072

[buritobr]

The speed of the increase of posts in this thread in the day of the French legislative election is lower than it is in the day of some German state elections

[Logical]

EXIT POLL leak according to the Belgians

ENS 208-248
NUPES 163-203
RN 67-90
LR+ 30-50

https://www.lesoir.be/449447/article/2022-06-19/legislatives-en-france-le-parti-demmanuel-macron-naurait-pas-la-majorite-absolue

[Mike88]

La Libre exit polls are normally fake, but who knows at this point.

[kaoras]

La Libre exit polls are normally fake, but who knows at this point.

They are clearly not fake, they are just not very good.

[Mike88]

La Libre exit polls are normally fake, but who knows at this point.

They are clearly not fake, they are just not very good.

Let's say "exaggerated" then.

[jaichind]

No results from Mayotte?

[Oryxslayer]

No results from Mayotte?

LR Mansour Kamardine is reelected. Estelle Youssouffa wins the northern seat.

[Mike88]

Macron loses his majority according to projections.

[jaichind]

RN 60-102
ENS 200-260
NUS 149-200