Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[pbrower2a]

Trump's numbers will go up/come home on culture war issues. This is why Democrats need to focus on turnout.

Well, when Trump stood on Lafayette Square with a bible in his hand and said how nice the police cut into protesters like it was "butter", it didn't work out that well. These culture wars may energize some of his base, but he needs a couple of swing voters. The economy may have been a compelling argument here, but this has also gone away. I agree, however, Democrats must maximize turnout through offering a different vision.

"We don't need a stinking dictator!"

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, June 10-16, 4426 adults

Approve 38
Disapprove 57

Biden 48, Trump 35

The above article was an excerpt from:

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), June 10-16, 4426 adults including 3768 RV

Adults:

Approve 38 (-1)
Disapprove 57 (nc)

Strongly approve 20 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+1)

Biden 43 (nc), Trump 33 (-2)


RV:

Approve 39 (-3)
Disapprove 58 (+1)

Strongly approve 22 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 45 (nc)

Biden 48 (+2), Trump 35 (-3)

[Progressive Pessimist]

Trump's numbers will go up/come home on culture war issues. This is why Democrats need to focus on turnout.

I'm not so sure that the data has backed up that notion thus far. Unlike in 2016 culture war issues don't seem to be affecting peoples' opinion of Biden and instead seem to be reflecting poorly on Trump who is the President, after all, during all this upheaval.

[GP270watch]

Trump's numbers will go up/come home on culture war issues. This is why Democrats need to focus on turnout.

I'm not so sure that the data has backed up that notion thus far. Unlike in 2016 culture war issues don't seem to be affecting peoples' opinion of Biden and instead seem to be reflecting poorly on Trump who is the President, after all, during all this upheaval.

 You guys can keep fooling yourselves but if Democrats don't have record turnout, Trump will win.

[emailking]

Trump's numbers will go up/come home on culture war issues. This is why Democrats need to focus on turnout.

I'm not so sure that the data has backed up that notion thus far. Unlike in 2016 culture war issues don't seem to be affecting peoples' opinion of Biden and instead seem to be reflecting poorly on Trump who is the President, after all, during all this upheaval.

 You guys can keep fooling yourselves but if Democrats don't have record turnout, Trump will win.

The horse race polls ask if you're going to vote and take that into account right? They're not just straight surveys asking how you would vote if you hypothetically decide to.

Sure if hardly any Dems show up to vote and lots of Republicans do, Trump will win. But right now the polling is showing sufficient democrats plan to vote to effect a landslide.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quinnipiac, June 11-15, 1332 RV (1-month change)

Approve 42 (nc)
Disapprove 55 (+2)

Strongly approve 32 (+4)
Strongly disapprove 48 (+2)

Biden 49 (-1), Trump 41 (+2)  (FWIW, it was also 49/41 in their April poll.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

AP/NORC, June 11-15, 1310 adults (1-month change)

Approve 39 (-2)
Disapprove 60 (+2)

Strongly approve 21 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 49 (+5)

This is Trump's worst showing in this poll (typically one of his worst) since last August.

[woodley park]

AP/NORC, June 11-15, 1310 adults (1-month change)

Approve 39 (-2)
Disapprove 60 (+2)

Strongly approve 21 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 49 (+5)

This is Trump's worst showing in this poll (typically one of his worst) since last August.

50 percent strong disapproval is great news for Trump. Show's he is generating intense feeling and motivating voters. Law & order jobs bump!

[Del Tachi]

Trump's numbers will go up/come home on culture war issues. This is why Democrats need to focus on turnout.

I'm not so sure that the data has backed up that notion thus far. Unlike in 2016 culture war issues don't seem to be affecting peoples' opinion of Biden and instead seem to be reflecting poorly on Trump who is the President, after all, during all this upheaval.

 You guys can keep fooling yourselves but if Democrats don't have record turnout, Trump will win.

The horse race polls ask if you're going to vote and take that into account right? They're not just straight surveys asking how you would vote if you hypothetically decide to.

Sure if hardly any Dems show up to vote and lots of Republicans do, Trump will win. But right now the polling is showing sufficient democrats plan to vote to effect a landslide.

Uhm...yes, they do but they're based on the same "black box" likely voter models that we're so off in states like FL, OH and MI in 2016/18

[GeorgiaModerate]

Optimus Coronavirus tracker (twice weekly), June 9-16, 783 adults including 686 LV

Adults:

Approve 44 (+2)
Disapprove 56 (-2)

Strongly approve 20 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 40 (-1)

Biden 42 (-1), Trump 37 (+3)

GCB: D 38 (-1), R 32 (nc)


LV:

Approve 47 (+1)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

Strongly approve 25 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 42 (nc)

Biden 50 (-2), Trump 44 (+1)

GCB: D 45 (-2), R 39 (nc)

[Progressive Pessimist]

Trump's numbers will go up/come home on culture war issues. This is why Democrats need to focus on turnout.

I'm not so sure that the data has backed up that notion thus far. Unlike in 2016 culture war issues don't seem to be affecting peoples' opinion of Biden and instead seem to be reflecting poorly on Trump who is the President, after all, during all this upheaval.

 You guys can keep fooling yourselves but if Democrats don't have record turnout, Trump will win.

Look at my username, I will not get overconfident. I am just acknowledging how things look for now, and have been for the past few months. I know that we're not used to it, but things look good for now. We just have to make sure that we vote in November to make it happen.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Fox News, June 13-16, 1343 RV (1-month change)

Approve 44 (nc)
Disapprove 55 (+1)

Strongly approve 27 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 45 (+2)

Biden 50 (+2), Trump 38 (-2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

New Hampshire: St. Anselm College, June 13-16, 1072 RV

Approve 43
Disapprove 57

Strongly approve 30
Strongly disapprove 53

Biden 49, Trump 42

[GeorgiaModerate]

This makes a ton of sense:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1273758088496132100

[pbrower2a]

New Hampshire: St. Anselm College, June 13-16, 1072 RV

Approve 43
Disapprove 57

Strongly approve 30
Strongly disapprove 53

Biden 49, Trump 42

It doesn't change the map on page 83.

57% disapproval in what is usually a swing state? Horrible news for the President.

[pbrower2a]

Minnesota, Gravis: Trump approval 42 and disapproval 56. Unless something really changes, Minnesota should go for Biden by a double-digit margin.

According to the poll, President Trump has a job approval rating in the state of Minnesota at 42% approve and 56% disapprove. 83% of Republicans approve of the job the President is doing while 84% of Democrats disapprove.  The elected official Minnesotans approve of the most at this time is Governor Tim Walz who earns a 61%-37% approval split. One third of Republicans in the poll indicated that they approve of the job Walz has done as Governor.  Minnesota’s two Senators also receive positive marks with Amy Klobuchar at 55%-36% and Tina Smith at 46%-36%. 

 

Voters were asked about the guilt of the four officers charged in the death of George Floyd and most have an opinion.  51% indicated that they believe all four charged Minneapolis police officers are guilty while 29% said only Derek Chauvin is guilty and 4% said that none of the officers are guilty. 55% of voters approve of the decision to put Attorney General Keith Ellison in charge of the prosecution of the four officers while 34% disapprove.

 

When asked about recent protests around the country, 60% of Minnesota voters have a somewhat or mostly positive view of the protests while 36% have a somewhat or mostly negative view. 57% approve of the Black Lives Matter movement while 38% disapprove.

 

There is broad approval for the local police departments of voters.  68% approve of the job performance of their local police department with 17% disapproving. When asked specifically about the Minneapolis police department, 62% indicated that the department should be reformed, 9% want the department defunded, 8% said demilitarized, 7% want it disbanded, and 14% feel that no change is needed. 23% of Republicans feel that no change is needed while 6% say disband, 4% say demilitarize, 2% say defund and 64% say reformed.  6% of Democrats feel that no change is needed while 17% say defund, 9% say disband, 10% say demilitarize and 58% say reformed. 65% of independents want the department reformed and 5% want the department disbanded.

 

This poll was conducted by Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research p2p texting and data firm. This poll of 600 registered voters in Minnesota was conducted on June 19th and has a margin of error of ±4%. This survey was conducted using interactive voice responses and an online panel of cell phone users.  This poll was not commissioned by any campaign committee or other organization and was paid for by Gravis Marketing.  Results are weighted by voting demographics.  Questions can be directed to the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, Doug Kaplan. 

 Minnesota (June 19, 2020)

https://www.gravismarketing.com/gravis-minnesota-poll-results/

Pro-police, but against brutal policing. I guess that is fairly representative of America. Minnesotans do not believe that their state is singled out...

Trump is fantastically unpopular in Minnesota this time; it is hard to believe that Minnesota was close in 2016. It ain't now.




 

 

Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher



[/quote]

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Back to reality, the Biden bump us gone, it looks like we are gonna go a Likely voter screen, the natl polls which had Biden up by 12 were registered voters, it's a 279 election again

[tagimaucia]

Back to reality, the Biden bump us gone, it looks like we are gonna go a Likely voter screen, the natl polls which had Biden up by 12 were registered voters, it's a 279 election again

I'm not seeing much evidence of any shift in the polls unless you cherry pick. What am I missing?

And out of curiosity I did a simple average of the last 10 national RV polls and the last 10 national LV polls on 538.  The RV polls were Biden +10.2, the LV ones were +8.9.  Not a huge gap.

[GeorgiaModerate]

ARG economic survey (monthly), June 17-20, 1100 adults including 993 RV

Adults:

Approve 38 (-2)
Disapprove 58 (+1)

RV:

Approve 38 (-2)
Disapprove 58 (nc)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Back to reality, the Biden bump us gone, it looks like we are gonna go a Likely voter screen, the natl polls which had Biden up by 12 were registered voters, it's a 279 election again

I'm not seeing much evidence of any shift in the polls unless you cherry pick. What am I missing?

And out of curiosity I did a simple average of the last 10 national RV polls and the last 10 national LV polls on 538.  The RV polls were Biden +10.2, the LV ones were +8.9.  Not a huge gap.

Some of the improvement of R polls have been into their attempt to pass PD reform.  The Rs arent giving this issue away to Dems, but that's what I am guessing.

Although the natl polls have been D friendly, we dont elect Prez by popular vote, we elect Ds by EC votes and NC, FL and AZ, and even MI, Trump has improved. It was Biden plus 16 a couple of weeks ago in MI, now it's down to single digits. The same in FL, Biden was ahead In FL and NC by 4 to 6 points, they are ties.

[tagimaucia]

Back to reality, the Biden bump us gone, it looks like we are gonna go a Likely voter screen, the natl polls which had Biden up by 12 were registered voters, it's a 279 election again

I'm not seeing much evidence of any shift in the polls unless you cherry pick. What am I missing?

And out of curiosity I did a simple average of the last 10 national RV polls and the last 10 national LV polls on 538.  The RV polls were Biden +10.2, the LV ones were +8.9.  Not a huge gap.

Some of the improvement of R polls have been into their attempt to pass PD reform.  The Rs arent giving this issue away to Dems, but that's what I am guessing.

Although the natl polls have been D friendly, we dont elect Prez by popular vote, we elect Ds by EC votes and NC, FL and AZ, and even MI, Trump has improved. It was Biden plus 16 a couple of weeks ago in MI, now it's down to single digits. The same in FL, Biden was ahead In FL and NC by 4 to 6 points, they are ties.

You're drawing pretty sweeping conclusions from a few state polls mainly by pollsters that nearly everyone regards as lower quality (Change and Gravis). I guess we'll see in the next few weeks if you're right.

And w/r/t Change, they actually show Biden doing better in 3 of 4 of those states than two weeks earlier (and in the 4th, Michigan, they show no change).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Echelon Insights, June 12-16, 1000 LV (1-month change)

Approve 41 (-2)
Disapprove 58 (+4)

Biden 50 (-1), Trump 42 (nc)

[GeorgiaModerate]

For the "Trump had low favorability in 2016 and still won" crowd:

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1275168351862562816

[GeorgiaModerate]

Harvard CAPS/Harris, June 17-18, 1886 RV (1-month change)

Approve 43 (-4)
Disapprove 57 (+4)

Biden 56, Trump 44 (of "likely voter" subset, N not specified)

[pbrower2a]

Remember: Donald Trump got a mere 45.92% of the popular vote and still won the Electoral College Note well:

1. The youngest voters are still about 20% more D than R in a normal election They supplant as a rule voters over 55 who are the vast majority of voters who die at a normal rate of 1.5% a year, then that demographic shift is enough to shift 1.5% over four years. That drops President Trump's likely share of the electorate to 44.4%, which is not enough with which to win re-election. Because that swing is even across the states, that will be enough to swing Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin alone. Perhaps Florida is getting older voters to move in, but even if Florida were getting voters roughly 0.5% R to replace about half of the older voters dying off, one could expect some other state to switch from R to D as it attracts younger voters (North Carolina?) or Californians (Arizona?).

2. The 2018 midterm elections still have something to say. Democrats won pluralities of the vote for House seats in every state that Hillary Clinton won in 2016... and Michigan, Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Wisconsin. To be sure, Republicans can win gubernatorial races on statewide issues such as education, transportation, and state budgets, and they can win House seats gerrymandered in their favot, they cannot gerrymander the total state vote for Congress into statewide wins. It is more ambiguous on Florida and North Carolina... If the 2018 midterms aren't a slap-down of President Trump, then what are they? ME-02 did go to the Democrat... so based upon the statewide ballots for the House, Biden wins anywhere from 296 to 340 electoral votes in 2020.

3. Approval numbers matter:

   

The 43% approval may be charitable in view of where the President's approval ratings are in some states and in nationwide polling.