Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump is at 200 and Biden is at 255, while VA brings it to 268 and WI brings it to 278 and ME 2 brings it to 279.

OH, FL, IA are irrelevant, in that scenario,  that's what John King was referring to

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

You'll probably get a monthly Gold Standard A-rated polls in coming days/week from CNN, IBD/TIPP and NBC/WSJ! Curious, what they'll show.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We dont even know what the recovery looks like, we cant assume anything that Biden has won, but Biden will have 256 EC votes compared to Trump 201, and VA makes it 268 and WI gives Biden 270 plus. While OH, FL and IA are purple states not trippers, that's the Nate Silver blue wall

[pbrower2a]

Arizona, Monmouth. Landline only, which might give an unwarranted edge to Republicans. It is favorability

5. Is your general impression of Donald Trump favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of him? 

ALL REGISTERED VOTERS   March 2020
Favorable   41%
Unfavorable   50%
No opinion     10%
      (n)   (847)

Biden is up 3% over Trump.



3A. Who would you vote for if the candidates for president were Donald Trump the Republican and Joe Biden the Democrat? [NAMES WERE ROTATED]

ALL REGISTERED VOTERS   March 2020

Donald Trump   43%
Joe Biden   46%
(VOL) Other candidate   3%
(VOL) Would not vote   2%
(VOL) Undecided   6%
      (n)   (847)

Trump really needs to be at 45% or higher at this stage (sure, 43% is OK in January, but it is now six months before the election and not eight, and that makes a difference).

In other news, Senator McSalley seems headed for defeat. This is in a state that has gone only once for a Democratic nominee for President since 1948. OK, so the demographics (a fast-growing Hispanic vote to which Donald Trump cannot relate). Still, Trump needs this state, and this poll suggests that he will lose it.

Arizona is becoming more like Colorado in its politics.

My focus here is not so much approval numbers as it is who has the edge in the various states.   

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_AZ_031620/

Trump:

approval 40% or less (Trump has no chance)
approval 41-45% and disapproval 50% or higher(likely Biden)
higher disapproval but disapproval under 50% (edge to Biden)
higher approval than disapproval but under 50%

[windjammer]

Just imagine in 2012 thinking Arizona would be the left of the nation as a whole.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Florida: U. of North Florida, March 31-April 4, 3244 RV

Note: this is approval of the coronavirus outbreak only (NOT general approval):

Approve 45 (strongly 33)
Disapprove 53 (strongly 43)

How much they trust Trump to provide reliable information on the pandemic:

A great deal 27
A fair amount 14
Not much 13
Not at all 45

They also asked the general election matchup:

Biden 46
Trump 40

“I would exercise caution when looking at these numbers, first these are registered voters – not likely voters; second, the campaign season has screeched to a grinding halt and people are rightly less focused on politics,” Binder warns. “Although, this same sample of voters when asked who they voted for in 2016, indicated a very slight advantage for Trump, suggesting that something may be changing in Florida ahead of the election."

[Person Man]

Florida: U. of North Florida, March 31-April 4, 3244 RV

Note: this is approval of the coronavirus outbreak only (NOT general approval):

Approve 45 (strongly 33)
Disapprove 53 (strongly 43)

How much they trust Trump to provide reliable information on the pandemic:

A great deal 27
A fair amount 14
Not much 13
Not at all 45

They also asked the general election matchup:

Biden 46
Trump 40

“I would exercise caution when looking at these numbers, first these are registered voters – not likely voters; second, the campaign season has screeched to a grinding halt and people are rightly less focused on politics,” Binder warns. “Although, this same sample of voters when asked who they voted for in 2016, indicated a very slight advantage for Trump, suggesting that something may be changing in Florida ahead of the election."

I don't understand the bolded parts.

[forgotten manatee]

Florida: U. of North Florida, March 31-April 4, 3244 RV

Note: this is approval of the coronavirus outbreak only (NOT general approval):

Approve 45 (strongly 33)
Disapprove 53 (strongly 43)

How much they trust Trump to provide reliable information on the pandemic:

A great deal 27
A fair amount 14
Not much 13
Not at all 45

They also asked the general election matchup:

Biden 46
Trump 40

“I would exercise caution when looking at these numbers, first these are registered voters – not likely voters; second, the campaign season has screeched to a grinding halt and people are rightly less focused on politics,” Binder warns. “Although, this same sample of voters when asked who they voted for in 2016, indicated a very slight advantage for Trump, suggesting that something may be changing in Florida ahead of the election."

I don't understand the bolded parts.

It means they asked this same set of people who they supported in 2016, and a slight majority of those polled said they had voted for Trump.

[Person Man]

Florida: U. of North Florida, March 31-April 4, 3244 RV

Note: this is approval of the coronavirus outbreak only (NOT general approval):

Approve 45 (strongly 33)
Disapprove 53 (strongly 43)

How much they trust Trump to provide reliable information on the pandemic:

A great deal 27
A fair amount 14
Not much 13
Not at all 45

They also asked the general election matchup:

Biden 46
Trump 40

“I would exercise caution when looking at these numbers, first these are registered voters – not likely voters; second, the campaign season has screeched to a grinding halt and people are rightly less focused on politics,” Binder warns. “Although, this same sample of voters when asked who they voted for in 2016, indicated a very slight advantage for Trump, suggesting that something may be changing in Florida ahead of the election."

I don't understand the bolded parts.

It means they asked this same set of people who they supported in 2016, and a slight majority of those polled said they had voted for Trump.

That's what I thought. It could have meant that those 2016 numbers translated into an advantage for Trump now (the polls shows he did worse with 2016 than 2020 when he won in 2016). It appears that it's the opposite.

I imagine that at this point, for Trump to win, he will have to either campaign very well or Biden's campaign will have to do very poorly. For Kevin McCarthy to win the Speakership, both will have to happen.

[forgotten manatee]

Florida: U. of North Florida, March 31-April 4, 3244 RV

Note: this is approval of the coronavirus outbreak only (NOT general approval):

Approve 45 (strongly 33)
Disapprove 53 (strongly 43)

How much they trust Trump to provide reliable information on the pandemic:

A great deal 27
A fair amount 14
Not much 13
Not at all 45

They also asked the general election matchup:

Biden 46
Trump 40

“I would exercise caution when looking at these numbers, first these are registered voters – not likely voters; second, the campaign season has screeched to a grinding halt and people are rightly less focused on politics,” Binder warns. “Although, this same sample of voters when asked who they voted for in 2016, indicated a very slight advantage for Trump, suggesting that something may be changing in Florida ahead of the election."

I don't understand the bolded parts.

It means they asked this same set of people who they supported in 2016, and a slight majority of those polled said they had voted for Trump.

That's what I thought. It could have meant that those 2016 numbers translated into an advantage for Trump now (the polls shows he did worse with 2016 than 2020 when he won in 2016). It appears that it's the opposite.

I imagine that at this point, for Trump to win, he will have to either campaign very well or Biden's campaign will have to do very poorly. For Kevin McCarthy to win the Speakership, both will have to happen.

I don't even think McCarthy wins the speakership in that situation either. I have no idea which way the presidential election is going, but I think the House is Likely D. The Senate is looking increasingly Lean D.

[Bidenworth2020]

Florida: U. of North Florida, March 31-April 4, 3244 RV

Note: this is approval of the coronavirus outbreak only (NOT general approval):

Approve 45 (strongly 33)
Disapprove 53 (strongly 43)

How much they trust Trump to provide reliable information on the pandemic:

A great deal 27
A fair amount 14
Not much 13
Not at all 45

They also asked the general election matchup:

Biden 46
Trump 40

“I would exercise caution when looking at these numbers, first these are registered voters – not likely voters; second, the campaign season has screeched to a grinding halt and people are rightly less focused on politics,” Binder warns. “Although, this same sample of voters when asked who they voted for in 2016, indicated a very slight advantage for Trump, suggesting that something may be changing in Florida ahead of the election."

I don't understand the bolded parts.

It means they asked this same set of people who they supported in 2016, and a slight majority of those polled said they had voted for Trump.

That's what I thought. It could have meant that those 2016 numbers translated into an advantage for Trump now (the polls shows he did worse with 2016 than 2020 when he won in 2016). It appears that it's the opposite.

I imagine that at this point, for Trump to win, he will have to either campaign very well or Biden's campaign will have to do very poorly. For Kevin McCarthy to win the Speakership, both will have to happen.

I don't even think McCarthy wins the speakership in that situation either. I have no idea which way the presidential election is going, but I think the House is Likely D. The Senate is looking increasingly Lean D.

I don't really think the Presidency could be anything less than lean D if the senate was.

[forgotten manatee]

Florida: U. of North Florida, March 31-April 4, 3244 RV

Note: this is approval of the coronavirus outbreak only (NOT general approval):

Approve 45 (strongly 33)
Disapprove 53 (strongly 43)

How much they trust Trump to provide reliable information on the pandemic:

A great deal 27
A fair amount 14
Not much 13
Not at all 45

They also asked the general election matchup:

Biden 46
Trump 40

“I would exercise caution when looking at these numbers, first these are registered voters – not likely voters; second, the campaign season has screeched to a grinding halt and people are rightly less focused on politics,” Binder warns. “Although, this same sample of voters when asked who they voted for in 2016, indicated a very slight advantage for Trump, suggesting that something may be changing in Florida ahead of the election."

I don't understand the bolded parts.

It means they asked this same set of people who they supported in 2016, and a slight majority of those polled said they had voted for Trump.

That's what I thought. It could have meant that those 2016 numbers translated into an advantage for Trump now (the polls shows he did worse with 2016 than 2020 when he won in 2016). It appears that it's the opposite.

I imagine that at this point, for Trump to win, he will have to either campaign very well or Biden's campaign will have to do very poorly. For Kevin McCarthy to win the Speakership, both will have to happen.

I don't even think McCarthy wins the speakership in that situation either. I have no idea which way the presidential election is going, but I think the House is Likely D. The Senate is looking increasingly Lean D.

I don't really think the Presidency could be anything less than lean D if the senate was.

I'm thinking of pickups in Montana, Arizona, Colorado, Maine, and maybe elsewhere in the South, some of which could be winnable despite losing the POTUS race in each state.

[Person Man]

Florida: U. of North Florida, March 31-April 4, 3244 RV

Note: this is approval of the coronavirus outbreak only (NOT general approval):

Approve 45 (strongly 33)
Disapprove 53 (strongly 43)

How much they trust Trump to provide reliable information on the pandemic:

A great deal 27
A fair amount 14
Not much 13
Not at all 45

They also asked the general election matchup:

Biden 46
Trump 40

“I would exercise caution when looking at these numbers, first these are registered voters – not likely voters; second, the campaign season has screeched to a grinding halt and people are rightly less focused on politics,” Binder warns. “Although, this same sample of voters when asked who they voted for in 2016, indicated a very slight advantage for Trump, suggesting that something may be changing in Florida ahead of the election."

I don't understand the bolded parts.

It means they asked this same set of people who they supported in 2016, and a slight majority of those polled said they had voted for Trump.

That's what I thought. It could have meant that those 2016 numbers translated into an advantage for Trump now (the polls shows he did worse with 2016 than 2020 when he won in 2016). It appears that it's the opposite.

I imagine that at this point, for Trump to win, he will have to either campaign very well or Biden's campaign will have to do very poorly. For Kevin McCarthy to win the Speakership, both will have to happen.

I don't even think McCarthy wins the speakership in that situation either. I have no idea which way the presidential election is going, but I think the House is Likely D. The Senate is looking increasingly Lean D.

I don't really think the Presidency could be anything less than lean D if the senate was.

I'm thinking of pickups in Montana, Arizona, Colorado, Maine, and maybe elsewhere in the South, some of which could be winnable despite losing the POTUS race in each state.

It could be conceivable that Democrats are able to bail on Biden and run as a check on Trump like what happened in 1996.

[Bidenworth2020]

Florida: U. of North Florida, March 31-April 4, 3244 RV

Note: this is approval of the coronavirus outbreak only (NOT general approval):

Approve 45 (strongly 33)
Disapprove 53 (strongly 43)

How much they trust Trump to provide reliable information on the pandemic:

A great deal 27
A fair amount 14
Not much 13
Not at all 45

They also asked the general election matchup:

Biden 46
Trump 40

“I would exercise caution when looking at these numbers, first these are registered voters – not likely voters; second, the campaign season has screeched to a grinding halt and people are rightly less focused on politics,” Binder warns. “Although, this same sample of voters when asked who they voted for in 2016, indicated a very slight advantage for Trump, suggesting that something may be changing in Florida ahead of the election."

I don't understand the bolded parts.

It means they asked this same set of people who they supported in 2016, and a slight majority of those polled said they had voted for Trump.

That's what I thought. It could have meant that those 2016 numbers translated into an advantage for Trump now (the polls shows he did worse with 2016 than 2020 when he won in 2016). It appears that it's the opposite.

I imagine that at this point, for Trump to win, he will have to either campaign very well or Biden's campaign will have to do very poorly. For Kevin McCarthy to win the Speakership, both will have to happen.

I don't even think McCarthy wins the speakership in that situation either. I have no idea which way the presidential election is going, but I think the House is Likely D. The Senate is looking increasingly Lean D.

I don't really think the Presidency could be anything less than lean D if the senate was.

I'm thinking of pickups in Montana, Arizona, Colorado, Maine, and maybe elsewhere in the South, some of which could be winnable despite losing the POTUS race in each state.

It could be conceivable that Democrats are able to bail on Biden and run as a check on Trump like what happened in 1996.

That only worked in 96 because Clinton was very popular. Trump has negative approvals. It makes no sense to dump the presidential race with that set of circumstances, even down-ballot.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Meanwhile in the parallel universe that Zogby polls, Trump is at 51-47 approval (although only 48-52 for handling the virus outbreak).

[Bidenworth2020]

Meanwhile in the parallel universe that Zogby polls, Trump is at 51-47 approval (although only 48-52 for handling the virus outbreak).

"large city voters (49% at least somewhat approve/50% at least somewhat disapprove)"

It also has black voters at 36% approving lmfao

[GP270watch]

Penn Quaker Girl assured me that mathematically we can assume that 10,000+ will die AT MINIMUM. She studies / works with epidemics so I respect her advice regarding COV-19.

Quoted for posterity.

Let's check back on that prediction in 2 months time in the USA, and see how the logic of your argument unfolds.

You have 9,907 deaths remaining.

This post aged like whole milk in the Florida sun.

 

[pbrower2a]

Florida: U. of North Florida, March 31-April 4, 3244 RV

Note: this is approval of the coronavirus outbreak only (NOT general approval):

Approve 45 (strongly 33)
Disapprove 53 (strongly 43)

How much they trust Trump to provide reliable information on the pandemic:

A great deal 27
A fair amount 14
Not much 13
Not at all 45

They also asked the general election matchup:

Biden 46
Trump 40

“I would exercise caution when looking at these numbers, first these are registered voters – not likely voters; second, the campaign season has screeched to a grinding halt and people are rightly less focused on politics,” Binder warns. “Although, this same sample of voters when asked who they voted for in 2016, indicated a very slight advantage for Trump, suggesting that something may be changing in Florida ahead of the election."

[/quote]

When all is said and done, Trump will win only if he does well at both

(1) preventing a recession, and
(2) keeping COVID-19 from becoming a monumental disaster.

If he fails at either, then he will be defeated. The President's performance on COVID-19 is a good proxy on approval and disapproval of him overall. It's like this: if your house is on fire, are you so concerned about your arthritis?

The elderly population within Florida is especially at risk from CORVID-19 and surely knows this well. 53% disapproval of the President on one critical issue of life and death?  Unless this changes, Trump is not winning Florida. The 46-40 advantage to Biden might get whittled some, but I don't see that happening quickly.

At this point I see Biden getting 328 or more electoral votes without knowing how he will do in Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio, or Texas.

Trump:

approval 40% or less (Trump has no chance)
approval 41-45% and disapproval 50% or higher(likely Biden)
higher disapproval but disapproval under 50% (edge to Biden)
higher approval than disapproval but under 50%[quote

[ProudModerate2]

Penn Quaker Girl assured me that mathematically we can assume that 10,000+ will die AT MINIMUM. She studies / works with epidemics so I respect her advice regarding COV-19.

Quoted for posterity.
Let's check back on that prediction in 2 months time in the USA, and see how the logic of your argument unfolds.
You have 9,907 deaths remaining.

This post aged like whole milk in the Florida sun.

Not only have we not even reached 1 month from the date of those posts (Mar 16th), we still have about 6 weeks to reach the "2 month" mark.
Where do you(we) believe the US death toll will be on May 16? It's not going to be a good number.

[GP270watch]

Penn Quaker Girl assured me that mathematically we can assume that 10,000+ will die AT MINIMUM. She studies / works with epidemics so I respect her advice regarding COV-19.

Quoted for posterity.
Let's check back on that prediction in 2 months time in the USA, and see how the logic of your argument unfolds.
You have 9,907 deaths remaining.

This post aged like whole milk in the Florida sun.

Not only have we not even reached 1 month from the date of those posts (Mar 16th), we still have about 6 weeks to reach the "2 month" mark.
Where do you(we) believe the US death toll will be on May 16? It's not going to be a good number.

 This website has been very good at modeling so far. It breaks down United States as a whole and the states individualy. They update it every few days with new data.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

MAR 29-APR 1, 2020
A/B
IBD/TIPP
1,226   A

https://www.investors.com/politics/americans-back-president-trump-on-coronavirus-crisis/

Job Approval:
45 (+4 since FEB 20-29)
45 (-9)


Corona:
43
41


H2H
Biden 47 (-2)
Trump 41 (-5) 

[Bidenworth2020]

MAR 29-APR 1, 2020
A/B
IBD/TIPP
1,226   A

https://www.investors.com/politics/americans-back-president-trump-on-coronavirus-crisis/

Job Approval:
45 (+4 since FEB 20-29)
45 (-9)


Corona:
43
41


H2H
Biden 47 (-2)
Trump 41 (-5) 

Wait so Trump's approval went up 10 and Biden IMPROVED in the H2H?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I really do not buy that Florida poll because in 2018 it predicted that Gillum was going to win in a landslide and it also predicted that Hillary would win the state so I don't trust that poll. Ironically the only polling that gets Florida elections right tends to be Republican internals

[GeorgiaModerate]

MAR 29-APR 1, 2020
A/B
IBD/TIPP
1,226 A

https://www.investors.com/politics/americans-back-president-trump-on-coronavirus-crisis/

Job Approval:
45 (+4 since FEB 20-29)
45 (-9)


Corona:
43
41


H2H
Biden 47 (-2)
Trump 41 (-5) 

Wait so Trump's approval went up 10 and Biden IMPROVED in the H2H?

Actually, Trump's approval went up by a net 13 (from -13 to even) while he lost 3 in the H2H (-3 to -6).  That's consistent with some other polls that have shown Trump gaining approval from some voters who nevertheless don't intend to vote for him.

[wbrocks67]

What are the dates on that poll?