Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[jaichind]

If I recall from previous elections, 80%-90% of the vote would have been counted by the time results are released.  So we will pretty much know right away if Lula won in the first round unless it is ultra close around 50% vote share for Lula.

[jaichind]

If I recall from previous elections, 80%-90% of the vote would have been counted by the time results are released.  So we will pretty much know right away if Lula won in the first round unless it is ultra close around 50% vote share for Lula.

This time is different. They've changed the voting hours in order for all polling stations, across the country, close at the same hour. But, like I said above, in one hour/hour and a half after polls close, the picture will become clear.

Thanks for the info and good to hear.   The way Brazil does it before takes all the fun out of election night.

[jaichind]

What are the best sites to watch the count?

I usually do it on average news websites reporting the count in real time.

G1 is one of them: https://g1.globo.com/

When do the polls close then ?

[jaichind]

With gathering economic storms in the world which could mean a sharp fall in international prices for raw materials the Lula takeover will be poor timing.  The fact that Lula polls much higher than other Center-left candidates in 2018 and 2022 shows part of his appeal are the memories of the economic glory days of 2002-2010 when the overall world economic environment was fairly positive for Brazil.  It seems unlikely that his new term will be so positive.

[jaichind]

You could say the same for 2014-2018 and 2018-2022 terms though, which all had to deal with much worse stuff lol.

Bolsonaro himself, was “lucky” to get the COVID period, something naturally negative which he completely transformed into something that gave him much worse press. No one can predict the future.

It is hard to predict the future.  I am not saying Brazil will never see economic success in the future because I am still fairly bullish on Brazil in the long run. I am just saying many people might be voting for Lula hoping for the return of 2002-2010 when outperformance on that level is just impossible in the next four years.

[jaichind]

You could say the same for 2014-2018 and 2018-2022 terms though, which all had to deal with much worse stuff lol.

Bolsonaro himself, was “lucky” to get the COVID period, something naturally negative which he completely transformed into something that gave him much worse press. No one can predict the future.

It is hard to predict the future.  I am not saying Brazil will never see economic success in the future because I am still fairly bullish on Brazil in the long run. I am just saying many people might be voting for Lula hoping for the return of 2002-2010 when outperformance on that level is just impossible in the next four years.

I think most people are voting for Lula because Bolsonaro is scary and many of his ideas are evil.

If I recall correctly Lula had a significant lead over Bolsonaro in 2018 polls while the Center-Left vote collapsed in 2018 after Lula was no longer being polled as a candidate.  All that was before Bolsonaro  became president. 

[jaichind]

Bloomberg on what markets expect:

An outright victory for Lula would surprise markets, wrote Alberto Ramos, a Latin American economist at Goldman Sachs in a research note. Lula getting less than 40% of the votes would also be an unexpected result, he added. Other surprise scenarios tonight would be Bolsonaro earning more than 40% of the votes or less than 30%, and a margin favoring Lula that exceeds 15 percentage points or falls below 5-6 percentage points.

[jaichind]

Bolsonaro not doing that badly in the South.  Right now the count  is neck-to-neck

[jaichind]

CNN live stream is behind the Globo website

[jaichind]

This seems bad …

Way too early.  I looked at the strong Lula areas and very few votes have really come in.  While in a couple of strong Bolsonaro areas a lot more votes are in.

[jaichind]

The good news for Bolsonaro is that outside of DF he is slightly ahead.  He is outperforming so far but it is still way too early.

[jaichind]

So don't freak out yet is the message I'm getting? Cos when I saw Bolonaro ahead I almost died

Do not worry.  Lula will win.  It is a matter of in which round.

[jaichind]

So the Globo map is just never going to work huh

Works for me great.  Might have to do with which browser you are using.

[jaichind]

Still narrow Bolsonaro lead in the non-DF count.

[jaichind]

How Brasilia voted in 2018:
1st round: Bolsonaro 58.4%, Ciro 16.6%, Haddad 11.9%
2nd round: Bolsonaro 70%, Haddad 30%

Bolsonaro is getting 52% right now.

where? Brasilia?

Yeah

That can't be a good sign for Bolsonaro right?

I think that puts him around 40% nationally on a uniform swing which is just on the boundary for Lula to win on the first round.

[jaichind]

I thought the vote count will go a lot faster than this.  It is already almost an hour after the polls closed.

[jaichind]

The count has completely stopped updating in the last 10 minutes.  What is going on here. ...

[jaichind]

What seems to be taking place is the regional counts are coming in but the top line tabulation has stopped.  Seems like a software bug to me.

[jaichind]

What seems to be taking place is the regional counts are coming in but the top line tabulation has stopped.  Seems like a software bug to me.

Big update in topline.  They must have bounced the process that did the topline computation.

[jaichind]

Still narrow Bolsonaro lead in the non-DF count.

[jaichind]

10 biggest cities in Brazil:

São Paulo: Lula 50,88% - Haddad 39,62%
Rio de Janeiro: Lula 44,64% - Haddad 33,65%
Brasilia: Lula 36,15% - Haddad 30,01%
Salvador: Lula 62,41% - Haddad 68,59%
Fortaleza: Lula 53,15% - Haddad 55,61%
Belo Horizonte: Lula 42,12% - Haddad 34,41%
Manaus: Lula 35,91% - Haddad 34,28%
Curitiba: Lula 29,76% - Haddad 23,46%
Recife: Lula 55,42% - Haddad 52,50%
Goiânia: Lula 32,79% - Haddad 25,80%

Lula is running ahead of Haddad's second round results in almost all of these.

Sure.  But as you recall Haddad fell far short of 50% of the vote in 2018 or else he would have become Prez in 2018.

[jaichind]

Bolsonaro's vote share margin in DF is declining slowly over time.

[jaichind]

It is still too early to say if is going to be a runoff?

Bolsonaro's vote share has to be driven to 41% or lower for that to take place.  I figure given the count bias he has to be driven down to 44% with around 50% of the vote counted.  Right now it is 48% with 15% votes counted.

[jaichind]

Only 26% of the vote counted after 2 hours ... this is pretty much slower than previous years.

[jaichind]

Only 26% of the vote counted after 2 hours ... this is pretty much slower than previous years.

Brazil decided to copy New York and Alaska with slow reporting lol

I think it is because of high turnout and lines in the voting stations when the polls closed