Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[jeron]

This seems bad …

Way too early.  I looked at the strong Lula areas and very few votes have really come in.  While in a couple of strong Bolsonaro areas a lot more votes are in.

Do we know where in the Sao Paulo area votes have come in from?

Are they were we would expect to see such a strong Bolsonaro performance?

Mainly outside of the city. Lula leads in the city proper. But Lula lost the state in 2006

[Duke of York]

How Brasilia voted in 2018:
1st round: Bolsonaro 58.4%, Ciro 16.6%, Haddad 11.9%
2nd round: Bolsonaro 70%, Haddad 30%

Bolsonaro is getting 52% right now.

where? Brasilia?

Yeah

That can't be a good sign for Bolsonaro right?

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1576667031956586499?s=20&t=2r-xSkHfNRSM3XG...

There was no exit polls.

why would a reputable source like them say that then?

I can't comment on that accounts reliability.. but there wasn't any exit polls released.

[skbl17]

I wonder if DW is confusing the final Ipec/Datafolha polls from yesterday with the "exit polls". Those *did* have Lula at ~50-51%, but those are not exit polls.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

1.19% Reporting

BOLSONARO 673,534 (48.41%)
LULA- 576,216 (41.41%)

[NOVA Green]

So the Globo map is just never going to work huh

It was working for me in the States until fairly recently, but has basically been effectively "dead" for the past ~20 minutes or so.

EDIT: Just came back up for me.

[jaichind]

How Brasilia voted in 2018:
1st round: Bolsonaro 58.4%, Ciro 16.6%, Haddad 11.9%
2nd round: Bolsonaro 70%, Haddad 30%

Bolsonaro is getting 52% right now.

where? Brasilia?

Yeah

That can't be a good sign for Bolsonaro right?

I think that puts him around 40% nationally on a uniform swing which is just on the boundary for Lula to win on the first round.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Still narrow Bolsonaro lead in the non-DF count.

From what I can tell most of the votes in so far are from the Northwest, where Bolsonaro was expected to win anyway. If the Southeast comes in hot for Lula then a slight overperformance here won't matter.

Still, if I had to make a bet just based on these results I'd guess Lula doesn't win the first round.

[brucejoel99]

jair military coup watch:

https://twitter.com/cityafreaks/status/1576672553862459395

[Adam Griffin]

Roughly half of counted votes come from these 5 districts:

Rio Grande do Sul
Amazonas
DF
Parana
Rio de Janeiro

Not sure how this compares to actual expected vote share.

Well, only two of those are in the top five states for population, and DF and Amazonas aren't even in the top 10.

As of now (1438k)


DF - 422k
Parana - 100k
Amazonas - 85k
Rio Grande do Sul - 82k
Sao Paulo (accidentally included RJ in the list prior instead) - 35k
TOTAL - 724k (50.34% of national)

 

[Duke of York]

Still narrow Bolsonaro lead in the non-DF count.

From what I can tell most of the votes in so far are from the Northwest, where Bolsonaro was expected to win anyway. If the Southeast comes in hot for Lula then a slight overperformance here won't matter.

Still, if I had to make a bet just based on these results I'd guess Lula doesn't win the first round.

that's my guess as well.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Okay f**k it. Is there a place I can find the 2018 results by municipality, to compare with the municipalities that reported now?

[Shilly]

Okay f**k it. Is there a place I can find the 2018 results by municipality, to compare with the municipalities that reported now?

Should be here.
http://especiais.g1.globo.com/politica/eleicoes/2018/mapa-da-apuracao-no-brasil-presidente/1-turno/

[jaichind]

I thought the vote count will go a lot faster than this.  It is already almost an hour after the polls closed.

[Duke of York]

I thought the vote count will go a lot faster than this.  It is already almost an hour after the polls closed.

And its very concerning Bolsonaro is leading in Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo. Id have thought they'd be going to Lula. I don't think hes going to win the first round.

[Red Velvet]

The development of the vote count in 2014



People seriously need to relax. Practically zero coastal vote yet if you go by the Globo map and that’s where people actually live. Basically nothing counted.

The Brasilia vote is a 5% drop from Bolsonaro in regards 2018 and somewhat aligned with IPEC poll predictions. IPEC said DF was going Bolsonaro 48% vs Lula 35%, which could still very well be the end result there.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I thought the vote count will go a lot faster than this.  It is already almost an hour after the polls closed.

And its very concerning Bolsonaro is leading in Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo. Id have thought they'd be going to Lula. I don't think hes going to win the first round.

Those states both went to Bolsonaro with over 60% of the vote in the 2018 election.

[Duke of York]

I thought the vote count will go a lot faster than this.  It is already almost an hour after the polls closed.

And its very concerning Bolsonaro is leading in Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo. Id have thought they'd be going to Lula. I don't think hes going to win the first round.

Those states both went to Bolsonaro with over 60% of the vote in the 2018 election.

in first or second round?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Okay f**k it. Is there a place I can find the 2018 results by municipality, to compare with the municipalities that reported now?

Should be here.
http://especiais.g1.globo.com/politica/eleicoes/2018/mapa-da-apuracao-no-brasil-presidente/1-turno/

Found it. I randomly clicked around on a bunch of municipalities and in most of them Lula seems to be ahead of Haddad's second round result. Though there's a lot of weirdness.

We'll see, but I have to imagine Lula will at least pull ahead. We'll see if that's enough to win in the first round though.

[Logical]

Some North Eastern PT stronghold states have 0% reporting. People need to get a grip.

[NOVA Green]

I thought the vote count will go a lot faster than this.  It is already almost an hour after the polls closed.

And its very concerning Bolsonaro is leading in Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo. Id have thought they'd be going to Lula. I don't think hes going to win the first round.

Those states both went to Bolsonaro with over 60% of the vote in the 2018 election.

Do we know which votes are in from the favellas versus wealthier parts of those states (Which I would assume to be much more heavily Bolsonaro vs the favellas much more strongly Lulu)?

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I thought the vote count will go a lot faster than this.  It is already almost an hour after the polls closed.

And its very concerning Bolsonaro is leading in Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo. Id have thought they'd be going to Lula. I don't think hes going to win the first round.

Those states both went to Bolsonaro with over 60% of the vote in the 2018 election.

in first or second round?

Second round, but regardless, they are areas where you should expect Bolsonaro to win even with a significant shift from 2018.

[kaoras]

Any place where I can see the % counted in each Area? The Globo map shows that the more pro Lula areas of Manaus have almost no votes in but doesn't show how advanced is the counting.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I thought the vote count will go a lot faster than this.  It is already almost an hour after the polls closed.

And its very concerning Bolsonaro is leading in Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo. Id have thought they'd be going to Lula. I don't think hes going to win the first round.

Those states both went to Bolsonaro with over 60% of the vote in the 2018 election.

Do we know which votes are in from the favellas versus wealthier parts of those states (Which I would assume to be much more heavily Bolsonaro vs the favellas much more strongly Lulu)?

I'm just doing the bare minimum of looking at Wikipedia maps yall, I don't have that level of detailed information.

[kaoras]

I thought the vote count will go a lot faster than this.  It is already almost an hour after the polls closed.

And its very concerning Bolsonaro is leading in Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo. Id have thought they'd be going to Lula. I don't think hes going to win the first round.

Those states both went to Bolsonaro with over 60% of the vote in the 2018 election.

in first or second round?

Second round, but regardless, they are areas where you should expect Bolsonaro to win even with a significant shift from 2018.

That and the fact that he is so far looking at random interior towns with almost not votes lol