Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Porto city, Portugal, results:

8,703 Lula
4,310 Bolsonaro

https://twitter.com/vicentenunes/status/1576640766926999552

Nothing from Faro yet, and Lisbon's polls are about to close in 20 minutes.

These are from mail-in ballots? Or what?

[Mike88]

These are from mail-in ballots? Or what?

Election day votes from Porto's election precincts. Around 30,000 voters were registered.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

These are from mail-in ballots? Or what?

Election day votes from Porto's election precincts. Around 30,000 voters were registered.

Really? From/In Portugal? That's allowed?

I didn't know that. Interesting.

[Sebastiansg7]

What is the most right-wing immigrant Brazilian community? I'm guessing the American one, especially those in Florida.

[Double Carpet]

Mike many thanks, that's great.

[President Johnson]

How likely is Lula to clear 50% outright and seal the deal? I think it's possible, though I expect him to narrowly fail. My guess is 45-47% for Lula and Bolsonaro second between 39-41%.

[Mike88]

These are from mail-in ballots? Or what?

Election day votes from Porto's election precincts. Around 30,000 voters were registered.

Really? From/In Portugal? That's allowed?

I didn't know that. Interesting.

Yep, each consulate and embassy organizes voting precincts for voters overseas be able to cast a ballot.

Mike many thanks, that's great.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

It's weird watching an election where we all basically know who is going to win the vote count but we have to intensely watch the margin to try to figure out how likely and widely-backed the coup attempt is going to be.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

To my Brazilian friends-

What will be some key things to look for (bellwethers, etc)?

[Sebastiansg7]

To me, as a colombian, it's always been incredible how insulated we are from Brazil. People here rarely hear anything from the South American giant (other than football of course), and I suppose the same is true from the brazilian perspective. We hear a lot more from Mexico, Argentina, and Venezuela obviously, than from Brazil. The US and Spain are also common freatures in the international section of our news media. Brazil is rarely mentioned. Lately, the odd antic from Bolsonaro and that's about it.

Colombia and Brazil have very little relations despite being neighbors. I guess it is because our shared border is in the middle of the Amazon. And this is precisely the issue in which both countries could relate to each other the most right now, with deforestation in both countries running rampant.

[Red Velvet]

Brazil is culturally kinda disconnected from LatAm in general tbh, not just Colombia. Language barrier mostly although geography and population distribution (Brazilians concentrated in the Atlantic coast, distant from everyone else) are obviously also factors. The sole exception is probably Argentina, the only LatAm country that gets on the news here from time to time.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

To me, as a colombian, it's always been incredible how insulated we are from Brazil. People here rarely hear anything from the South American giant (other than football of course), and I suppose the same is true from the brazilian perspective. We hear a lot more from Mexico, Argentina, and Venezuela obviously, than from Brazil. The US and Spain are also common freatures in the international section of our news media. Brazil is rarely mentioned. Lately, the odd antic from Bolsonaro and that's about it.

Colombia and Brazil have very little relations despite being neighbors. I guess it is because our shared border is in the middle of the Amazon. And this is precisely the issue in which both countries could relate to each other the most right now, with deforestation in both countries running rampant.

I assumed it was the language barrier. How often do Guyana, Suriname or Paraguay come up?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Can someone link to the results page?

[jaichind]

Bloomberg on what markets expect:

An outright victory for Lula would surprise markets, wrote Alberto Ramos, a Latin American economist at Goldman Sachs in a research note. Lula getting less than 40% of the votes would also be an unexpected result, he added. Other surprise scenarios tonight would be Bolsonaro earning more than 40% of the votes or less than 30%, and a margin favoring Lula that exceeds 15 percentage points or falls below 5-6 percentage points.

[Double Carpet]

https://g1.globo.com/politica/eleicoes/2022/apuracao/presidente.ghtml

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://g1.globo.com/politica/eleicoes/2022/apuracao/presidente.ghtml

Thanks!

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

So we should be getting the first results any minute?

[Double Carpet]

In India, which is also electronic voting/counting, first seat call in 2019 IIRC was about 7 mins after counting started.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

FIRST RESULTS:

Lula at 51.18% with 150,000 votes in. Ballsonaro at 36%

[Biden 2024]

Bloomberg on what markets expect:

An outright victory for Lula would surprise markets, wrote Alberto Ramos, a Latin American economist at Goldman Sachs in a research note. Lula getting less than 40% of the votes would also be an unexpected result, he added. Other surprise scenarios tonight would be Bolsonaro earning more than 40% of the votes or less than 30%, and a margin favoring Lula that exceeds 15 percentage points or falls below 5-6 percentage points.

Wow. Groundbreaking insight.

[Double Carpet]

455/472K reporting, Lula 51% Bolsonaro 37%

[Adam Griffin]

Bloomberg on what markets expect:

An outright victory for Lula would surprise markets, wrote Alberto Ramos, a Latin American economist at Goldman Sachs in a research note. Lula getting less than 40% of the votes would also be an unexpected result, he added. Other surprise scenarios tonight would be Bolsonaro earning more than 40% of the votes or less than 30%, and a margin favoring Lula that exceeds 15 percentage points or falls below 5-6 percentage points.

Wow. Groundbreaking insight.

BRB - buying my Bloomberg terminal!

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Bloomberg on what markets expect:

An outright victory for Lula would surprise markets, wrote Alberto Ramos, a Latin American economist at Goldman Sachs in a research note. Lula getting less than 40% of the votes would also be an unexpected result, he added. Other surprise scenarios tonight would be Bolsonaro earning more than 40% of the votes or less than 30%, and a margin favoring Lula that exceeds 15 percentage points or falls below 5-6 percentage points.

Wow. Groundbreaking insight.

Jaichind makes me look like a communist.

[brucejoel99]

455/472K reporting, Lula 51% Bolsonaro 37%

STOP THE COUNT!

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

I wish Jair Bolsonaro nothing but pain and misery.