Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

4.90% Reporting

BOLSONARO- 2,689,995 (48.84%)
LULA- 2,318,797 (42.10%)

The scheduled jaichind cope has arrived early, it seems...

Bolsonaro losing will be good for poor people and bad for lumber futures, so of course jaichind is upset.

[jaichind]

Bolsonaro's vote share margin in DF is declining slowly over time.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It is incredibly frustrating that the Globo map doesn't show how much of a municipality's vote is actually in. I have no idea if what I'm looking at is the full vote or a narrow sample.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It is incredibly frustrating that the Globo map doesn't show how much of a municipality's vote is actually in. I have no idea if what I'm looking at is the full vote or a narrow sample.

Uh, why not just use The Guardian? https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2022/oct/02/brazil-election-2022-live-results-bolsonaro-lula-da-silva

[Adam Griffin]

10 biggest cities in Brazil:

São Paulo: Lula 50,88% - Haddad 39,62%
Rio de Janeiro: Lula 44,64% - Haddad 33,65%
Brasilia: Lula 36,15% - Haddad 30,01%
Salvador: Lula 62,41% - Haddad 68,59%
Fortaleza: Lula 53,15% - Haddad 55,61%
Belo Horizonte: Lula 42,12% - Haddad 34,41%
Manaus: Lula 35,91% - Haddad 34,28%
Curitiba: Lula 29,76% - Haddad 23,46%
Recife: Lula 55,42% - Haddad 52,50%
Goiânia: Lula 32,79% - Haddad 25,80%

Lula is running ahead of Haddad's second round results in almost all of these, by an average of around 5 points.

Is that average figure margin shift/swing (of ~5 points), or Lula's vote share increase (i.e. a ~10-point shift)?

Percentage change. So yeah, if you'd put it in swing terms that'd be around ~9 points. But there's no reason to do so since what we're looking at here is percentage, not margin.

I was just thinking that if it was a 10-point margin swing relative to 2nd round prior & Bolsonaro won by 10-11, it's a decent sign that Lula can still clear 50.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It is incredibly frustrating that the Globo map doesn't show how much of a municipality's vote is actually in. I have no idea if what I'm looking at is the full vote or a narrow sample.

Uh, why not just use The Guardian? https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2022/oct/02/brazil-election-2022-live-results-bolsonaro-lula-da-silva

I was looking for a map by municipality, not by state. Thanks though.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

8.10% Reporting

BOLSONARO- 4,407,997 (48.51%)
LULA- 3,874,394 (42.64%)

[buritobr]

Results in the precint I worked

seção 397 Zona Eleitoral 4
Flamengo
Rio de Janeiro-RJ

President
Lula 109
Bolsonaro 75
Tebet 18
Ciro 9
Felipe 1
Valid votes 212
Blank/nullified 4
Total votes 216

Governor
Freixo 110
Castro 62
Ganime 18
Neves 10
Valid votes 200
Blank/nullified 16
Total votes 216

Senator
Molon 113
Silveira 35
Romário 28
Clarissa 8
Ceciliano 6
Itagiba 3
Costa 2
Daciolo 1
Haidar 1
Valid vote 197
Blank/nullified 19
Total votes 216

The Zone 4 voted on the left of the city in the last elections. But I think the final results of the whole Zone 4 will be on the left of my precint, since there were many senior citizens voting in my precint, and they usually vote slightly on the right of young people.

[Pres Mike]

Why are the results taking so long?

[Red Velvet]

Why are the results taking so long?

Long lines in some places, there are still people voting.

[Pres Mike]

Why are the results taking so long?

Long lines in some places, there are still people voting.

Expectations when final results?

[Double Carpet]

Why did the polls close so early?

5pm Brasilia (3pm Acre) seems quite early - eg France (cities), Spain, Sweden are 8pm

[Ron DeSantis enthusiast]

It is still too early to say if is going to be a runoff?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

13.21% Reporting

BOLSONARO- 7,098,087 (48.02%)
LULA- 6,391,749 (43.24%)

[buritobr]

In the city of Rio de Janeiro, now 2,93% reported

Castro 46,6%, Freixo 37,3%
Bolsonaro 44,9%, Lula 44,7%

But the proceeding in ahead in the west zone, the right-wing stronghold. Zero vote in the leftist stronghold in the south zone, in the Zones 4 and 16 (Botafogo, Flamengo, Laranjeiras) was counted until now.

[jaichind]

It is still too early to say if is going to be a runoff?

Bolsonaro's vote share has to be driven to 41% or lower for that to take place.  I figure given the count bias he has to be driven down to 44% with around 50% of the vote counted.  Right now it is 48% with 15% votes counted.

[Duke of York]

It is still too early to say if is going to be a runoff?

yes

[Mike88]

It is still too early to say if is going to be a runoff?

Yes, it's still early. Because of the big lines in voting precincts, the count in big cities is being very slow and only when those areas start to report, will it be possible to forecast a runoff or not.

[Mike88]

In Rio Grande do Sul, Eduardo Leite could fail going to a runoff.

[Mike88]

The Globo coverage is quite boring. The old guy in Record just complaining about everything, is quite entertaining.

[Logical]

Distrito Federal (89% counted)
Bolsonaro 51.6%
Lula 36.8%
Tebet 6.0%
Gomes 4.2%

In 2018 it was
Bolsonaro 58.4%
Gomes 16.6%
Haddad 11.9%

[jaichind]

Only 26% of the vote counted after 2 hours ... this is pretty much slower than previous years.

[Adam Griffin]

25.83% reporting
47.74% Bolsonaro (+4.25)
43.49% Lula

[Pres Mike]

Only 26% of the vote counted after 2 hours ... this is pretty much slower than previous years.

Brazil decided to copy New York and Alaska with slow reporting lol

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

28.19% Reporting

BOLSONARO- 15,145,224 (47.67%)
LULA- 13,834,411 (43.55%)

Looks like the vote is truly rolling in now.