Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[buritobr]

From Mike Hamil's Twitter

https://twitter.com/MarkHamill/status/1576348511678844928/photo/2



May the force be with us

[Pivaru]

From what I understand, only in Rio are PT and PSB divided, right? Across the rest of the country, they seem to be supporting the same Senate and Governor candidates.

They're also divided in Rio Grande do Norte, PSB is running Rafael Motta for the senate and PT is supporting Carlos Eduardo, who is from PDT. There is a non zero chance this could make Rogério Marinho, Bolsonaro's former minister of regional development, win, though I most certainly wouldn't bet on it.

Pretty sure they're also divided in other states, but I can't recall which ones (I remember PSB supports Alvaro Dias in Paraná, not sure who PT supports though).

[Red Velvet]

The Roraima numbers for Bolsonaro being his best margins in the country LMAO

That poor state is the only one in the entire country with a FULL population number (652k) below the expat eligible voters number (697k). Way more Brazilians outside Brazil than in that state.

You know you’re really f-cked up when you’re even more Pro-Bolsonaro than Santa f-cking Catarina…

[buritobr]

The Roraima numbers for Bolsonaro being his best margins in the country LMAO

That poor State is the only one in the entire country with a FULL population number (652k) below the expat eligible voters number (697k). Way more Brazilians outside Brazil than in there.

You know you’re really f-cked up when you’re even more Pro-Bolsonaro than Santa f-cking Catarina…

Roraima was the best state for Lula's 2022 running mate in 2006.
Most of the people there don't like PT because they don't support indigenous reservation areas

[Red Velvet]

Well, at least Santa Catarina can brag about being only the 2nd most pro-Bolsonaro state in the country if anyone decides to drag them, I guess…

Regarding the swing states, I think it will end up with the obvious anyway. Lula winning Espírito Santo, Rio de Janeiro and Rio Grande do Sul with low margins and Bolsonaro winning Mato Grosso do Sul (tbh, I’m really surprised the vote in MS is so close! I didn’t imagine them being that much to the left of Paraná).

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

What are the best sites to watch the count?

[Red Velvet]

What are the best sites to watch the count?

I usually do it on average news websites reporting the count in real time.

G1 is one of them: https://g1.globo.com/

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

What are the best sites to watch the count?

I usually do it on average news websites reporting the count in real time.

G1 is one of them: https://g1.globo.com/

Thanks. Fingers crossed for Lula!

[Red Velvet]

What are the best sites to watch the count?

I usually do it on average news websites reporting the count in real time.

G1 is one of them: https://g1.globo.com/

Thanks. Fingers crossed for Lula!

Results from New Zealand (where Bolsonaro won in 2018) show great signs. Lula destroying Bolsonaro there.

[Niemeyerite]

🇳🇿 - Wellington

Lula 329 - 72.95%
Bolsonaro 71 - 15.74%
Ciro 23 - 5.10%


In 2018 It was:

Bolsonaro 140 - 41.06%
Ciro 89 - 26.10%
Amoedo 46 - 13.49%
Haddad 23 - 6.74%

🎉🎉🎉🎉

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

🇳🇿 - Wellington

Lula 329 - 72.95%
Bolsonaro 71 - 15.74%
Ciro 23 - 5.10%


In 2018 It was:

Bolsonaro 140 - 41.06%
Ciro 89 - 26.10%
Amoedo 46 - 13.49%
Haddad 23 - 6.74%

🎉🎉🎉🎉

I don't want to get too excited but F@CK YEAH!!!

Will there be any other closings in countries abroad (like in Australia, etc)?

[Niemeyerite]

🇳🇿 - Wellington

Lula 329 - 72.95%
Bolsonaro 71 - 15.74%
Ciro 23 - 5.10%


In 2018 It was:

Bolsonaro 140 - 41.06%
Ciro 89 - 26.10%
Amoedo 46 - 13.49%
Haddad 23 - 6.74%

🎉🎉🎉🎉

I don't want to get too excited but F@CK YEAH!!!

Will there be any other closings in countries abroad (like in Australia, etc)?

Yes, as soon as it's 17h in other countries we'll get the results there too. Unfortunately for me, I vote in Madrid but I'm working in Berlin today so I won't be able to vote. But I'll go to the Brazilian embassy to follow the election as polls close.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

🇳🇿 - Wellington

Lula 329 - 72.95%
Bolsonaro 71 - 15.74%
Ciro 23 - 5.10%


In 2018 It was:

Bolsonaro 140 - 41.06%
Ciro 89 - 26.10%
Amoedo 46 - 13.49%
Haddad 23 - 6.74%

🎉🎉🎉🎉

I don't want to get too excited but F@CK YEAH!!!

Will there be any other closings in countries abroad (like in Australia, etc)?

Yes, as soon as it's 17h in other countries we'll get the results there too. Unfortunately for me, I vote in Madrid but I'm working in Berlin today so I won't be able to vote. But I'll go to the Brazilian embassy to follow the election as polls close.

Where can we see those results?

[Niemeyerite]

🇳🇿 - Wellington

Lula 329 - 72.95%
Bolsonaro 71 - 15.74%
Ciro 23 - 5.10%


In 2018 It was:

Bolsonaro 140 - 41.06%
Ciro 89 - 26.10%
Amoedo 46 - 13.49%
Haddad 23 - 6.74%

🎉🎉🎉🎉

I don't want to get too excited but F@CK YEAH!!!

Will there be any other closings in countries abroad (like in Australia, etc)?

Yes, as soon as it's 17h in other countries we'll get the results there too. Unfortunately for me, I vote in Madrid but I'm working in Berlin today so I won't be able to vote. But I'll go to the Brazilian embassy to follow the election as polls close.

Where can we see those results?

2018 results here:

https://especiais.gazetadopovo.com.br/eleicoes/2018/resultados/municipios-exterior/barcelona-ex/presidente/

2022 ones are being shared on social media.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

🇳🇿 - Wellington

Lula 329 - 72.95%
Bolsonaro 71 - 15.74%
Ciro 23 - 5.10%


In 2018 It was:

Bolsonaro 140 - 41.06%
Ciro 89 - 26.10%
Amoedo 46 - 13.49%
Haddad 23 - 6.74%

🎉🎉🎉🎉

I don't want to get too excited but F@CK YEAH!!!

Will there be any other closings in countries abroad (like in Australia, etc)?

Yes, as soon as it's 17h in other countries we'll get the results there too. Unfortunately for me, I vote in Madrid but I'm working in Berlin today so I won't be able to vote. But I'll go to the Brazilian embassy to follow the election as polls close.

Where can we see those results?

2018 results here:

https://especiais.gazetadopovo.com.br/eleicoes/2018/resultados/municipios-exterior/barcelona-ex/presidente/

2022 ones are being shared on social media.

How are the social media people getting the NZ results?

[2952-0-0]

It's rather incongruous that New Zealand is the Dixville Notch of Brazil.

[Red Velvet]

🇳🇿 - Wellington

Lula 329 - 72.95%
Bolsonaro 71 - 15.74%
Ciro 23 - 5.10%


In 2018 It was:

Bolsonaro 140 - 41.06%
Ciro 89 - 26.10%
Amoedo 46 - 13.49%
Haddad 23 - 6.74%

🎉🎉🎉🎉

I don't want to get too excited but F@CK YEAH!!!

Will there be any other closings in countries abroad (like in Australia, etc)?

Yes, as soon as it's 17h in other countries we'll get the results there too. Unfortunately for me, I vote in Madrid but I'm working in Berlin today so I won't be able to vote. But I'll go to the Brazilian embassy to follow the election as polls close.

Where can we see those results?

2018 results here:

https://especiais.gazetadopovo.com.br/eleicoes/2018/resultados/municipios-exterior/barcelona-ex/presidente/

2022 ones are being shared on social media.

How are the social media people getting the NZ results?

The results are printed by each electronic machine and publicly exposed by gluing one copy from them in front of the location the vote happened. That way everyone can see them.

Someone just took a picture of the results that were put in front of the Embassy in New Zealand and people are sharing it. In Wellington it’s only those four papers:

https://www.twitter.com/popchartpc/status/1576435509987282944

[2952-0-0]

https://twitter.com/A_FleckBrandao/status/1576466861600149504?t=A3X0bBSTHTphWObh...

[Red Velvet]

The actual vote in Brazil only starts in about 4 hours btw.

But following the new results per country should be fun past time in the meantime as they also should indicate a trend.

And so far based on Australia + New Zealand this year the expat vote is significantly to the left in comparison to 2018. Those are areas that Bolsonaro had won back then and now he’s losing with big margins…

Japan is one of the most important ones and should be out really soon. I think it’s inevitably more conservative than the average so if it’s not a landslide for Bolsonaro then it’s already great news.

Then Europe will only come much later but will be fun to watch them all, especially the PORTUGAL one, which I consider kinda more of a potential representative of the average Southeastern voter

The USA vote might be significant but will only be released after the vote in Brazil is closed itself, so we won’t really follow them lol

[Red Velvet]

New Zealand, 2018: Bolsonaro 43% // Haddad 6%
New Zealand, 2022: Lula 72% // Bolsonaro 15%

Canberra, 2018: Bolsonaro 47% // Haddad 7%
Canberra, 2022: Lula 64% // Bolsonaro 20%

Sydney, 2018: Bolsonaro 45% // Haddad 6%
Sydney, 2022: Lula 52% // Bolsonaro 31%

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

This looks like it's pointing to a first round victory, right?

[Niemeyerite]

I think the anti-Bolsonaro wave is much, much bigger outside Brazil. Here in Spain if you say you're Brazilian, a good chunk of people will tell you how horrible they find Bolsonaro. So I guess part of the reason many Brazilians living abroad, even some bolsominions from 2018, are voting so much more left now is because they are ashamed of the president.

[jaichind]

If I recall from previous elections, 80%-90% of the vote would have been counted by the time results are released.  So we will pretty much know right away if Lula won in the first round unless it is ultra close around 50% vote share for Lula.

[Mike88]

If I recall from previous elections, 80%-90% of the vote would have been counted by the time results are released.  So we will pretty much know right away if Lula won in the first round unless it is ultra close around 50% vote share for Lula.

This time is different. They've changed the voting hours in order for all polling stations, across the country, close at the same hour. But, like I said above, in one hour/hour and a half after polls close, the picture will become clear.

Turnout in Portugal seems to higher than 4 years ago. In 2018, only around 30% cast a ballot, but this time there are more people voting in the first hours than 4 years ago. Lines have also been formed in Lisbon. Polls here close at 5pm, 1pm Rio de Janeiro time.

https://twitter.com/lucasrohan/status/1576482306490961921
The line is quite big indeed.

[jaichind]

If I recall from previous elections, 80%-90% of the vote would have been counted by the time results are released.  So we will pretty much know right away if Lula won in the first round unless it is ultra close around 50% vote share for Lula.

This time is different. They've changed the voting hours in order for all polling stations, across the country, close at the same hour. But, like I said above, in one hour/hour and a half after polls close, the picture will become clear.

Thanks for the info and good to hear.   The way Brazil does it before takes all the fun out of election night.