Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[omar04]

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1576667031956586499?s=20&t=2r-xSkHfNRSM3XG...

I thought there aren't exit polls this year? Is DW confusing it with the beginning of the actual count?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Doomers gonna doom.

[jaichind]

The count has completely stopped updating in the last 10 minutes.  What is going on here. ...

[Walmart_shopper]

The count has completely stopped updating in the last 10 minutes.  What is going on here. ...

The coup has begun.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

The count has completely stopped updating in the last 10 minutes.  What is going on here. ...

The coup has begun.

They're stopping the count!

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Wait actually?

[omar04]

The count has completely stopped updating in the last 10 minutes.  What is going on here. ...

There's probably nothing to it, Brazil does use electronic machines for voting (Bolsonaro claims they're vulnerable to fraud).

[Duke of York]

The count has completely stopped updating in the last 10 minutes.  What is going on here. ...

That can't be a good sign.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

The vote counted is mostly from Brasilia lol. Relax people

Id have thought Brasilia would be for Lula.

Nah, it was predicted Distrito Federal (Brasilia) would go strong for Bolsonaro, so this is expected.

That seems weird, why would Brasilia go for him Bolsonaro ?

In Latin America, big cities (above 500,000 people) mostly vote right or for economic-liberals (Except Bogotá and Santiago. CDMX was another exception but that is ending)

Think of Latin American politics as a reactionary version of the American post-New Deal coalitions (The right being more urban and the left being more rural)

I'm aware of that, but I thought public sector workers particulary those who are unionised like in brazil would be consistent supporters of the worker party.

[jaichind]

What seems to be taking place is the regional counts are coming in but the top line tabulation has stopped.  Seems like a software bug to me.

[skbl17]

Count is updating again.

[brucejoel99]

🚨

https://twitter.com/cityafreaks/status/1576680685922037760

[jaichind]

What seems to be taking place is the regional counts are coming in but the top line tabulation has stopped.  Seems like a software bug to me.

Big update in topline.  They must have bounced the process that did the topline computation.

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1576667031956586499?s=20&t=2r-xSkHfNRSM3XG...

I thought there aren't exit polls this year? Is DW confusing it with the beginning of the actual count?

Based on the quote in the article and how it tracked with vote reporting, I think so. It even says it's the electoral commission's count:

The first numbers published by the electoral commission put Lula at 51% support. This was soon reduced to 47%. And then a third update around 20 minutes after polls closed gave a slight lead to Bolsonaro instead, at 47.6% to Lula's 41%.

[Duke of York]

🚨

https://twitter.com/cityafreaks/status/1576680685922037760

well thats some good news.

This is in Sao Paulo for those wondering

[Antonio the Sixth]

10 biggest cities in Brazil:

São Paulo: Lula 50,88% - Haddad 39,62%
Rio de Janeiro: Lula 44,64% - Haddad 33,65%
Brasilia: Lula 36,15% - Haddad 30,01%
Salvador: Lula 62,41% - Haddad 68,59%
Fortaleza: Lula 53,15% - Haddad 55,61%
Belo Horizonte: Lula 42,12% - Haddad 34,41%
Manaus: Lula 35,91% - Haddad 34,28%
Curitiba: Lula 29,76% - Haddad 23,46%
Recife: Lula 55,42% - Haddad 52,50%
Goiânia: Lula 32,79% - Haddad 25,80%

Lula is running ahead of Haddad's second round results in almost all of these, by an average of around 5 points.

[omar04]

🚨

https://twitter.com/cityafreaks/status/1576680685922037760

Keep in mind this city's population is just 5,292 as of the 2020 census.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

4.50% Reporting

BOLSONARO- 2,470,832 (48.84%)
LULA- 2,128,155 (42.07%)

[jaichind]

Still narrow Bolsonaro lead in the non-DF count.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

I can understand that the early count would typically favour the right since it disproportionately comes from the Northwest (and DF) but what I can't understand is why the early vote from the Southeast also favours Bolsonaro (except Minas, currently 44-47). Do they count the votes from gated communities first or something?

[jaichind]

10 biggest cities in Brazil:

São Paulo: Lula 50,88% - Haddad 39,62%
Rio de Janeiro: Lula 44,64% - Haddad 33,65%
Brasilia: Lula 36,15% - Haddad 30,01%
Salvador: Lula 62,41% - Haddad 68,59%
Fortaleza: Lula 53,15% - Haddad 55,61%
Belo Horizonte: Lula 42,12% - Haddad 34,41%
Manaus: Lula 35,91% - Haddad 34,28%
Curitiba: Lula 29,76% - Haddad 23,46%
Recife: Lula 55,42% - Haddad 52,50%
Goiânia: Lula 32,79% - Haddad 25,80%

Lula is running ahead of Haddad's second round results in almost all of these.

Sure.  But as you recall Haddad fell far short of 50% of the vote in 2018 or else he would have become Prez in 2018.

[Antonio the Sixth]

10 biggest cities in Brazil:

São Paulo: Lula 50,88% - Haddad 39,62%
Rio de Janeiro: Lula 44,64% - Haddad 33,65%
Brasilia: Lula 36,15% - Haddad 30,01%
Salvador: Lula 62,41% - Haddad 68,59%
Fortaleza: Lula 53,15% - Haddad 55,61%
Belo Horizonte: Lula 42,12% - Haddad 34,41%
Manaus: Lula 35,91% - Haddad 34,28%
Curitiba: Lula 29,76% - Haddad 23,46%
Recife: Lula 55,42% - Haddad 52,50%
Goiânia: Lula 32,79% - Haddad 25,80%

Lula is running ahead of Haddad's second round results in almost all of these.

Sure.  But as you recall Haddad fell far short of 50% of the vote in 2018 or else he would have become Prez in 2018.

No sh*t

[Boobs]

The scheduled jaichind cope has arrived early, it seems...

[Adam Griffin]

10 biggest cities in Brazil:

São Paulo: Lula 50,88% - Haddad 39,62%
Rio de Janeiro: Lula 44,64% - Haddad 33,65%
Brasilia: Lula 36,15% - Haddad 30,01%
Salvador: Lula 62,41% - Haddad 68,59%
Fortaleza: Lula 53,15% - Haddad 55,61%
Belo Horizonte: Lula 42,12% - Haddad 34,41%
Manaus: Lula 35,91% - Haddad 34,28%
Curitiba: Lula 29,76% - Haddad 23,46%
Recife: Lula 55,42% - Haddad 52,50%
Goiânia: Lula 32,79% - Haddad 25,80%

Lula is running ahead of Haddad's second round results in almost all of these, by an average of around 5 points.

Is that average figure margin shift/swing (i.e. Haddad -20 to Lula -15), or Lula's vote share increase (i.e. Haddad -20 to Lula -10)?

[Antonio the Sixth]

10 biggest cities in Brazil:

São Paulo: Lula 50,88% - Haddad 39,62%
Rio de Janeiro: Lula 44,64% - Haddad 33,65%
Brasilia: Lula 36,15% - Haddad 30,01%
Salvador: Lula 62,41% - Haddad 68,59%
Fortaleza: Lula 53,15% - Haddad 55,61%
Belo Horizonte: Lula 42,12% - Haddad 34,41%
Manaus: Lula 35,91% - Haddad 34,28%
Curitiba: Lula 29,76% - Haddad 23,46%
Recife: Lula 55,42% - Haddad 52,50%
Goiânia: Lula 32,79% - Haddad 25,80%

Lula is running ahead of Haddad's second round results in almost all of these, by an average of around 5 points.

Is that average figure margin shift/swing (of ~5 points), or Lula's vote share increase (i.e. a ~10-point shift)?

Percentage change. So yeah, if you'd put it in swing terms that'd be around ~9 points. But there's no reason to do so since what we're looking at here is percentage, not margin.