Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[NOVA Green]

The vote counted is mostly from Brasilia lol. Relax people

Id have thought Brasilia would be for Lula.

Although I fully claim to be fairly ignorant when it comes to Brazilian elections, my understanding is that Bolsonaro's policies have dramatically reduced native rights, contributed to continued massive deforestation of the Amazon to support illegal mining, logging, and agricultural activities, so effectively likely a lot of the voters in that region are more likely to be sympathetic since it benefits their pocketbooks.

Maybe totally off here, so please any observers feel free to jump in and correct me.

[jaichind]

The good news for Bolsonaro is that outside of DF he is slightly ahead.  He is outperforming so far but it is still way too early.

[Duke of York]

The good news for Bolsonaro is that outside of DF he is slightly ahead.  He is outperforming so far but it is still way too early.

The polls seems like they were off and Lula isn't going to win outright.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

How Brasilia voted in 2018:
1st round: Bolsonaro 58.4%, Ciro 16.6%, Haddad 11.9%
2nd round: Bolsonaro 70%, Haddad 30%

[Adam Griffin]

The vote counted is mostly from Brasilia lol. Relax people

Id have thought Brasilia would be for Lula.

Nah, it was predicted Distrito Federal (Brasilia) would go strong for Bolsonaro, so this is expected.

That seems weird, why would Brasilia go for him Bolsonaro ?

Plenty of places in Latin America (Brazil, Chile, Bolivia, Peru, etc) still have a nasty habit of urban, wealthy, educated European-originated populations leaning right while the poorer, more indigenous and/or minority groups being more represented in rural areas & embracing left-populism.

It's actually not the worst arrangement of political coalitions when compared to, say, the modern US dynamics. Left-wingers can actually still solidly win with such coalitions.

(30,000-foot explanation from an amateur observer)

[MABA 2020]

So don't freak out yet is the message I'm getting? Cos when I saw Bolonaro ahead I almost died

[Duke of York]

So don't freak out yet is the message I'm getting? Cos when I saw Bolonaro ahead I almost died

yes it is way too early to make any predictions

[jaichind]

So don't freak out yet is the message I'm getting? Cos when I saw Bolonaro ahead I almost died

Do not worry.  Lula will win.  It is a matter of in which round.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So the Globo map is just never going to work huh

[Duke of York]

So don't freak out yet is the message I'm getting? Cos when I saw Bolonaro ahead I almost died

Do not worry.  Lula will win.  It is a matter of in which round.

I hope its first round because if he doesn't things could get very ugly over the next month.

[Walmart_shopper]

How Brasilia voted in 2018:
1st round: Bolsonaro 58.4%, Ciro 16.6%, Haddad 11.9%
2nd round: Bolsonaro 70%, Haddad 30%

Bolsonaro is getting 52% right now.

[jaichind]

So the Globo map is just never going to work huh

Works for me great.  Might have to do with which browser you are using.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1576667031956586499?s=20&t=2r-xSkHfNRSM3XG...

[Socani]

The vote counted is mostly from Brasilia lol. Relax people

Id have thought Brasilia would be for Lula.

Nah, it was predicted Distrito Federal (Brasilia) would go strong for Bolsonaro, so this is expected.

That seems weird, why would Brasilia go for him Bolsonaro ?

In Latin America, big cities (above 500,000 people) mostly vote right or for economic-liberals (Except Bogotá and Santiago. CDMX was another exception but that is ending)

Think of Latin American politics as a reactionary version of the American post-New Deal coalitions (The right being more urban and the left being more rural)

[Duke of York]

How Brasilia voted in 2018:
1st round: Bolsonaro 58.4%, Ciro 16.6%, Haddad 11.9%
2nd round: Bolsonaro 70%, Haddad 30%

Bolsonaro is getting 52% right now.

where? Brasilia?

[Mexican Wolf]

So the Globo map is just never going to work huh

Works for me great.  Might have to do with which browser you are using.

It wasn't showing up for me earlier, but now it's working fine on Chrome.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

0.84% Reporting

BOLSONARO 481,645 (48.46%)
LULA- 407,614 (41.01%)

From the map, Lula is crushing it with the Indigenous tribes (171-1 in one area lol) I wonder why...

[Adam Griffin]

Roughly half of counted votes come from these 5 districts:

Rio Grande do Sul
Amazonas
DF
Parana
Sao Paulo

Not sure how this compares to actual expected vote share.

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1576667031956586499?s=20&t=2r-xSkHfNRSM3XG...

I hope this comes to pass

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1576667031956586499?s=20&t=2r-xSkHfNRSM3XG...

There was no exit polls.

[Hash]

So the Globo map is just never going to work huh

Try this one: https://especiaisg1.globo/politica/eleicoes/2022/mapas/mapa-da-apuracao-no-brasil-presidente/1-turno/

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1576667031956586499?s=20&t=2r-xSkHfNRSM3XG...

There was no exit polls.

why would a reputable source like them say that then?

[Walmart_shopper]

How Brasilia voted in 2018:
1st round: Bolsonaro 58.4%, Ciro 16.6%, Haddad 11.9%
2nd round: Bolsonaro 70%, Haddad 30%

Bolsonaro is getting 52% right now.

where? Brasilia?

Yeah

[jaichind]

Still narrow Bolsonaro lead in the non-DF count.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Roughly half of counted votes come from these 5 districts:

Rio Grande do Sul
Amazonas
DF
Parana
Rio de Janeiro

Not sure how this compares to actual expected vote share.

Well, only two of those are in the top five states for population, and DF and Amazonas aren't even in the top 10.