2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I feel like Nevada might be the only state called in the next few hours.

[Intell]

Guys lets be serious, the difference between Biden and Sanders would be close to 0%, he wouldn't do better, he wouldn't do worse.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

How the F#CK do you look at the last four years, and especially this year, and say "yeah i want more of this"

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

So how are we currently feeling about:

MI?

WI?

PA?

MI: At this point Trump has surpassed or nearly surpassed his total 2016 votes in a few traditionally Republican counties (eg. Ottawa) and also in Flint. His margin in key counties like Macomb is substantial but he's farther from hitting his 2016 vote totals. Typically the Democratic votes in Detroit come late in Michigan even without mail ins, but on the other hand Michigan Republicans have a strong mail in vote operation and I doubt they'll be getting blown out like they will be in Pennsylvania. One bright spot for Biden is that he won back Leelaunau and has 1,000 more voters than Hillary did with 90% reporting. Probably the hardest state to call right now but it has the most for Biden to be happy about outside of the suburbs. Tilt Biden I guess?

WI: Everything I'm seeing suggests Trump will win. He's improving his vote totals in key southwestern counties that Biden was supposed to have won back and the Wisconsin suburbs are famously inflexible to the usual trends. In Lafayette Trump has pulled 1000 brand new voters straight out of his ass when they were supposed to be defecting in droves to Biden. The only silver lining for Biden is that he's somehow doing even better in Madison, but Madison alone ain't gonna cut it. Unless Biden pulls out crazy numbers from Milwaukee or its surrounding suburbs or unless it turns out the maps are lying and actually there are thousands of mail ins for those key southwestern states and turnout is almost double 2016 somehow I don't see a path for Biden and frankly I want to be proven wrong. Likely Trump.

PA: There are similarly bad signs for Biden in Trump's total votes in counties like Erie, but at least Biden can rest safe knowing hundreds of thousands of votes will arrive near the end of the count in his favour and his margins/turnout in the Philly suburbs will probably be substantial. The Allegheny turnout and margin will matter a ton here and I think will be decisive: if Trump does significantly worse here than his 2016 margin on the back of the suburbs (40%) then Biden has the edge but if Trump even manages to stem the bleeding to at least 35%ish then he'll be in a good position to win.

You really see this as likely Trump?  Seems like Trump isn't improving enough to offset Dane/Milwaukee.  

Trump won Wisconsin in 2016 with 1.4 million votes total. Right now he's at 1.39 million votes and the key counties that were supposed to go for Biden have 1,000+ more votes each for Trump than last time.

Obama 2008 peaked at almost 1.7 million votes and Obama 2012 only got 1.6 million votes, and in both cases he resoundingly won those aforementioned southwestern counties. Is Biden going to get better turnout than Obama while losing every rural county by margins no Democrat has ever lost before? No damn way.

[kwabbit]

I wonder if James is the favorite in MI senate. If Trump is just a narrow underdog, he might have the edge given that he's outrunning Trump a good amount in Oakland and Wayne.

[BudgieForce]

How the F#CK do you look at the last four years, and especially this year, and say "yeah i want more of this"

And somehow, the CBS exit polls have Trump with a 47/51 approval rating. Near Even. I dont understand this country.

[justfollowingtheelections]

So is Cunningham done in NC?

Also, what does everyone predict the final result in the CA house races will be?  I asked earlier if the Dems can win 53.  Does anyone thing they could win 50 at least?

[Kuumo]

How the F#CK do you look at the last four years, and especially this year, and say "yeah i want more of this"

Dying of COVID to own the libs.

[Tarrin Kael]

Yo what just happened with the NC needle? moved from 95% Trump to 84%

It and GA changed a while ago.

The NYT needle is cancer. I swear something like this happens every election cycle.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

So is Cunningham done in NC?

He was a loser when Schumer tipped the scales in the primary and he's a dumba$$ loser now for costing us the Senate cause he couldn't keep it in his pants.

[Alcibiades]

Peterson’s lost.

[tjstarling]

Guys lets be serious, the difference between Biden and Sanders would be close to 0%, he wouldn't do better, he wouldn't do worse.

This has mostly always been about Trump. I don’t think Sanders would’ve peeled off a single working class vote or the Trump won, the question is whether he would’ve performed in a similar way in the suburbs.

[emailking]

Biden has got to spend the next 4 years appealing to Hispanics. Like, some of these results are embarrassing, especially against Trump.

I miss Tío Bernie.

In hindsight, Biden's poor performance in the Nevada caucuses should have been a warning sign for Democrats.

It's a primary with a lot of candidates. There's nothing to base it on really. He could have been the most popular candidate while being the first choice of few.

If he was, he'd have gotten more votes in the second/third rounds of the caucuses.

Yeah I forgot that.

[anthonyjg]

How the F#CK do you look at the last four years, and especially this year, and say "yeah i want more of this"

Honestly, this is where I am. Sure Biden wasn't the best candidate and clearly has major issues with hispanics and latinos, but what the hell? Even being shocked by 2016, I got it at the time, this is nuts.

[Bootes Void]

i have heard alot of talk about Biden doing bad with Black Voters, but here is his share among the black vote by state(exit polls)

Mich:91%
Wis:93%
Pa: 92%
NC:91%
Ga:87%(surprise)
FL:89%
VA:90%
SC:89%(trump has 7%)
Al:90%
OH:91%

He did fine with black voters but much weaker among hispanics and middle aged voters

[Illiniwek]

NBC moves Wisconsin from Too Early to Call to Too Close to Call.

Oh boy.

[Calthrina950]

How the F#CK do you look at the last four years, and especially this year, and say "yeah i want more of this"

I think we need to start taking a more fundamental look at why Trump's base have remained so loyal to him, through all of this. I think people on this forum have greatly misconstrued the reasons why. I certainly think that I haven't given it enough consideration in recent months.

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/yashar/status/1323874502376218624

[Alcibiades]

Biden win looking likelier by the minute in GA.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

i have heard alot of talk about Biden doing bad with Black Voters, but here is his share among the black vote by state(exit polls)

Mich:91%
Wis:93%
Pa: 92%
NC:91%
Ga:87%(surprise)
FL:89%
VA:90%
SC:89%(trump has 7%)
Al:90%
OH:91%

He did fine with black voters but much weaker among hispanics and middle aged voters

Turnout matters more than exact margin with blacks.

[Hassan 2022]

UGH. Kara Eastman lost. Thank you ticket splitters! And Brad Ashford can f**k off.

[Zanas]

How the F#CK do you look at the last four years, and especially this year, and say "yeah i want more of this"

Stockholm syndrom inside a death cult

[Illiniwek]

Biden win looking likelier by the minute in GA.

Needle just ticked up to 64%

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

ABC projects MN for Biden.

[7,052,770]

Trump's lead in GA down from 325,000 to 127,000 in the past hour.

Needle moved from 59 to 64 just now