European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[rc18]

United Kingdom

Will voters punish the traditional two main parties — Labour and Conservative — for failing to deliver Brexit by switching to the new political movement fronted by anti-EU MEP Nigel Farage? And while the anti-Brexit vote will be split by the Liberal Democrats, the Green Party and Change UK, will it add up to more than that of Farage’s Brexit Party?

The big story of the night will be how well the conservatives do in terms of percentage of the vote. If they are around 15%, they are doing better than people expected. If they are around 10%, they are doing worse. If the Greens beat them as might happen, that is an extremely bad sign for them. Whilst the polls say differently, I expect the Lib Dems to beat Labour (narrowly). The Lib Dems have momentum (pun intended) over Labour, who have been consistently been dropping in the polls. If the Brexit party get more than 35%, they will be doing better than expected, yet anything under 30% and many will say that they have really failed based on what was expected. Looking at turnout figures, it seems that the remain voters are coming out, whilst the leave voters are disenfranchised and don't seem to want to come out. This means that the nationwide popular vote will be worse than the overall seats for the Brexit party. They will probably still get as many seats as people expect though because the leave areas and the remain areas are largely concentrated in particular areas. As for areas to look at, the South East and London are where a lot of the remain vote is. To work out who will come second (Labour or Lib Dems), who is winning here will give a strong indication as to who will be the overall second place winner. If the Labour party are holding their ground in the north (These are where the early results come in), they may have a good night. If the Lib Dems are doing very well in the South West (Where I'm from), this could be a good sign for them. Hope my knowledge on the UK helps!

Winning Spinning Here

[Umengus]

France

Turnout

 Pas-de-Calais : 24,9% (+10,3)
Aisne : 20,9% (+7,7)

It's good for RN but:

Alpes maritimes : 13 (-1,5)

And Paris: 11 (=)

So for now, it seems good for RN.

[Diouf]

Turnout at 12.00 in Denmark is 24.7%, compared to 20.3% in 2014.

[CumbrianLefty]

Poll closing times for the 21 countries that are voting today (local time):

2pm: Luxemburg

3pm: Belgium

5pm: Austria, Cyprus

6pm: Germany, Greece

7pm: Bulgaria, Croatia, Estonia, Finland, Hungary, Lithuania, Slovenia

8pm: Denmark, France, Portugal, Romania, Spain

9pm: Poland, Sweden

11pm: Italy (needs to be nuked for such a time)

I don't know about you, but a 2 pm or 3 pm poll closing seems comically early to me.

That is sometimes combined with Saturday voting I think?

[jaichind]

Does anyone have a schedule of when the results will begin to come out?

Polls are now open in most countries.

Results will only be released after 11pm European Time (5pm Eastern in the US), because of sh*tty Italy which keeps their polls open that long, but exit polls and the like will be released once each country closes their polls.

In Austria, this is the case at 5pm, in Germany at 6pm.

If so why cannot UK release their exit polls since they voted a couple of days ago

[CumbrianLefty]

Does anyone have a schedule of when the results will begin to come out?

Polls are now open in most countries.

Results will only be released after 11pm European Time (5pm Eastern in the US), because of sh*tty Italy which keeps their polls open that long, but exit polls and the like will be released once each country closes their polls.

In Austria, this is the case at 5pm, in Germany at 6pm.

If so why cannot UK release their exit polls since they voted a couple of days ago

Because we haven't done one?

(one time that we did - the original "Green wave" 1989 poll - it was out Thursday night)

[parochial boy]

I'm actually a little curious with Luxembourg as it's huge EU migrant population should have theoretically the right to vote. As they make up half the population they could really swing things around in theory. In practice I suspect most don't bother or vote at home. But still...

(On a side note, apparently over a quarter of the Swiss population had the right to vote, meaning more people can vote here than in several EU member states. I even got a leaflet through the door from the Socialists encouraging me to vote for fellow PES parties).

[Tender Branson]

Austrian Twitteria (= some poll workers) report relatively good turnout numbers in their precincts so far.

Authorities are not releasing any official numbers during Election Day though, after the strict Supreme Court ruling in 2016.

[Tender Branson]

... for electronic voting.

What do you mean by electronic voting ? I thought only Estonia has it ?

[LAKISYLVANIA]

... for electronic voting.

What do you mean by electronic voting ? I thought only Estonia has it ?

voting on a computer, while half of the communities vote with a pencil and paper.

[Farmlands]

Only three people below 65 years of age in my polling station, which were me, my mother and another university student. Seriously hoping it is because the rest of the voting population was still sleeping and that youth abstention isn't in the house of the 80s again. Oporto by the way.

[Umengus]

Only three people below 65 years of age in my polling station, which were me, my mother and another university student. Seriously hoping it is because the rest of the voting population was still sleeping and that youth abstention isn't in the house of the 80s again. Oporto by the way.

in KS ?

[Tender Branson]

Based on Twitter information, I now predict a 54-56% turnout.

That would be +10% compared with 2014.

[Mike88]

Portugal - Turnout at 12:00 (noon):

2019 11.56%
2014 12.14%
2009 11.84%
2004 14.20%

[Andrea]

At midday


France: 19.26% (15.7 in 2014)

Italy: 16.72% (16.66 in 2014)

[Tender Branson]

Turnout reports:

Germany and Austria: up moderately by 5-10%
UK: up slightly ca. 5%
France, Netherlands and Denmark: up slightly ca. 4%
Italy and Portugal: stable
Poland: twice the turnout of 2014 so far

[Walmart_shopper]

Turnout reports:

Germany and Austria: up moderately by 5-10%
UK: up slightly ca. 5%
France, Netherlands and Denmark: up slightly ca. 4%
Italy and Portugal: stable
Poland: twice the turnout of 2014 so far

Poland is going to be very interesting because the center-left coalition may be the joint list used to (try to) take down the PiS this fall. I'd it works today with a good turnout it may be the final push a joint list between the PO and other opposition parties needs to actually happen.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Turnout in Poland at noon was 14.4%, up 7.1% from 2014.

I'm just back from voting myself. I gave Adrian Zandberg's name on the ballot paper a wistful glance but ended up voting for a guy on the Wiosna list, who was in Razem for a long time and runs a progressive foreign policy think-tank, and who might have a small chance of getting enough votes to take Biedron's seat if he gives it up as he says he will.

The only people who managed to send poll-watchers were the Confederation, so I have a feeling the UK diaspora will once again vote for the stupidest options on the ballot by a landslide. Turnout seemed predictably crap.

[RedPrometheus]

Turnout in Poland at noon was 14.4%, up 7.1% from 2014.

I'm just back from voting myself. I gave Adrian Zandberg's name on the ballot paper a wistful glance but ended up voting for a guy on the Wiosna list, who was in Razem for a long time and runs a progressive foreign policy think-tank, and who might have a small chance of getting enough votes to take Biedron's seat if he gives it up as he says he will.

The only people who managed to send poll-watchers were the Confederation, so I have a feeling the UK diaspora will once again vote for the stupidest options on the ballot by a landslide. Turnout seemed predictably crap.

Who do you think will profit from a higher turnout?

[RedPrometheus]

2 rumors I heard:

In Austria ÖVP strong, SPÖ stagnant, FPÖ with losses, strong Greens and stagnant NEOS.

In Germany CDU/CSU ahead close race for second between SPD and Greens.

[Diouf]

Turnout at 14.00 in Denmark up to 37.6%, compared to 30.2% in 2014.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

I'm just back from voting myself. I gave Adrian Zandberg's name on the ballot paper a wistful glance but ended up voting for a guy on the Wiosna list, who was in Razem for a long time and runs a progressive foreign policy think-tank, and who might have a small chance of getting enough votes to take Biedron's seat if he gives it up as he says he will.

Traczyk will not be able to get more votes than people on higher positions. But probably I should blame somebody that he or she wasted their vote.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Turnout in Poland at noon was 14.4%, up 7.1% from 2014.

I'm just back from voting myself. I gave Adrian Zandberg's name on the ballot paper a wistful glance but ended up voting for a guy on the Wiosna list, who was in Razem for a long time and runs a progressive foreign policy think-tank, and who might have a small chance of getting enough votes to take Biedron's seat if he gives it up as he says he will.

The only people who managed to send poll-watchers were the Confederation, so I have a feeling the UK diaspora will once again vote for the stupidest options on the ballot by a landslide. Turnout seemed predictably crap.

Who do you think will profit from a higher turnout?

The increase seems fairly linear, so I think it will be a wash.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

I'm just back from voting myself. I gave Adrian Zandberg's name on the ballot paper a wistful glance but ended up voting for a guy on the Wiosna list, who was in Razem for a long time and runs a progressive foreign policy think-tank, and who might have a small chance of getting enough votes to take Biedron's seat if he gives it up as he says he will.

Traczyk will not be able to get more votes than people on higher positions. But probably I should blame somebody that he or she wasted their vote.

Scheuring-Wielgus probably lost votes over that whole thing about sending her dogs to an animal shelter. Almost certainly not enough, but at least I've done what I can to reinforce Wiosna's left flank.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What are Polish posters perspectives on Wiosna anyway?