European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[CumbrianLefty]

Polling for European Elections in GB has always been a notorious joke. This time round (if it happens which it seems like it will), this will be even truer than normal.

It wasn't massively out in 2014, for the final days at any rate.

Another poll for Euro elections (Opinium) has Labour ahead on 29%. Tories on 17% (so they are close to YouGov on that at least) then UKIP 13% and Brexit Party 12%.

[CumbrianLefty]

Of course the United Kingdom is going to send some right-wing populist loons to the European Parliament as a lovely parting gift, as if the ideology still makes any logical sense in the country given the last two years. I hope they're out of the EU by the next election, which I now can see not happening honestly.

There will be plenty of "right wing populist loons" elected from other EU states, don't worry.

[CumbrianLefty]

This latest YouGov is basically a(nother) push poll from the PV campaign, so treat with caution.

[CumbrianLefty]

This latest YouGov is basically a(nother) push poll from the PV campaign, so treat with caution.

And lo and behold another YouGov poll for the Euro Elections - but a "regular" one, not commissioned by any lobby group - has the Brexit Party and Labour pretty much neck and neck.

[CumbrianLefty]

YouGov newest has voters splitting towards the poles. 3 Hard Remain parties on 27%, 2 Hard Brexit parties on 33%. Conservative down on 13%, so nearing the territory, where they could miss out on seats in several constituencies.

BREX 28%
LAB 22%
CON 13%
CHUK 10%
GRN 10%
LD 7%
UKIP 5%
Others 6%

Its yet another push poll that YouGov have colluded in.

Two other surveys out yesterday that were *not* push polls have BP and Lab level at 27/28%, and ChUK *much* lower (its their comedy score in this one that really gives it away)

[CumbrianLefty]

When confronted with the term "population exchange" being a Neo-Nazi term, Strache says:

"That's a concept of reality. We do not want to become a minority in our own homeland. That is legitimate and honest and deeply democratic. Only where someone tries to enforce his political goals by force, it is right-wing extremism, which of course has no place in a democracy."

Sure, just a far-right conspiracy theory. Nothing to see here: https://www.kleinezeitung.at/politik/innenpolitik/5495901/Wiener-Schulen_51-Prozent-haben-nicht-Deutsch-als-Umgangssprache.

Yes, it is a far right conspiracy theory.

Next!

[CumbrianLefty]

Hilarious expectations management from the Conservatives, who have decided to not bother even attempting a campaign or provide funding for their candidates because it would be embarrassing to lose after trying: they are musing they might come behind the Greens. This might be an interesting experiment though: how important are cadre really? Because you can bet no Tory activist is bothering with this one.

RIP Conservative and Unionist Party (1834-2019).

Nah, Rasputin was easy to kill off in comparison.

Though be in no doubt, what is currently going on is most definitely not "normal".

[CumbrianLefty]

(Also, it's pretty easy to see the party rebounding under a Corbyn government for instance, casting off the Cameron and May legacies and probably ending up back in government after a single term.)

Though I do think that may be going a bit far the other way, they have serious long term issues.

[CumbrianLefty]

This may or may not be an outlier, but...

All European Elections polls for GB are, in essence, outliers. Might as well play with dice.

Not least of the questions is what turnout they are projecting.

[CumbrianLefty]

The two Euro election polls tonight both have the Tories in 4th place (behind LibDems)

Now, 3rd place for Labour in these elections back in 2009 was described as a humiliation at the time - and not totally unfairly. This time the Tories are (as an apparently deliberate act) running no campaign to speak of, so who knows how low they could go?

[CumbrianLefty]

There have been several EU polls for the UK published in the last 24 hours.

Though some others are close, there is still only one pollster who has the LibDems ahead of Labour.

YouGov (for it is they) are going to look either very prescient or highly stupid come Monday morning.

[CumbrianLefty]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/1131669660385062912

Looks like fairly blatant expectation management to me - Tories will do badly, but *that* badly??

Meanwhile the final UK poll for this election - by Survation and taken yesterday - has BxP on 31% and Labour second on 23% (still well ahead of the LibDems)

[CumbrianLefty]

And are you also really saying Corbyn will not be undermined if his base deserts him for Green on one side LibDem on the other?

Well it's possible that the mickey mouse elections and the patterns in them might matter a bit in that sort of sense, sure. Otherwise, no. Meaningless.

Its main effect may be to push the party to a less ambiguously pro-remain position - but as you will of course know, that process has been happening for some time now anyway.

[CumbrianLefty]

Poll closing times for the 21 countries that are voting today (local time):

2pm: Luxemburg

3pm: Belgium

5pm: Austria, Cyprus

6pm: Germany, Greece

7pm: Bulgaria, Croatia, Estonia, Finland, Hungary, Lithuania, Slovenia

8pm: Denmark, France, Portugal, Romania, Spain

9pm: Poland, Sweden

11pm: Italy (needs to be nuked for such a time)

I don't know about you, but a 2 pm or 3 pm poll closing seems comically early to me.

That is sometimes combined with Saturday voting I think?

[CumbrianLefty]

Does anyone have a schedule of when the results will begin to come out?

Polls are now open in most countries.

Results will only be released after 11pm European Time (5pm Eastern in the US), because of sh*tty Italy which keeps their polls open that long, but exit polls and the like will be released once each country closes their polls.

In Austria, this is the case at 5pm, in Germany at 6pm.

If so why cannot UK release their exit polls since they voted a couple of days ago

Because we haven't done one?

(one time that we did - the original "Green wave" 1989 poll - it was out Thursday night)

[CumbrianLefty]

This kind of sh!t almost makes me eurosceptic.

And it's not even about the spitzenkandidat thing. It's about the EPP and Germany and cloth eared out of touch elitists who lack even the slightest ability or willingness for critical reflection about what it is about the EU that people don't like

This, an awful decision and its frankly embarrassing that most "social democrat" MEPs backed her.