European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[parochial boy]

I truly wonder for which party I will vote.

But to be honest you still have a lot of candidates to choose from. I am in much worse situation.

Pfff, must be nice to have a vote in these 

[parochial boy]

what's the, umm, rationale for this? Of all the reforms the European parliament needs, I wouldn't have put thresholds at the top of the list

[parochial boy]

Fair enough for the Netherlands I guess - but really this exactly the sort of mind-boggling stupidity that just gives ammunition to eurosceptics.

If people don't take the European parliament elections seriously, there is a reason for that, and finding ways to tell people they are voting "wrong" is only going to be counterproductive.

Like, the most legitimate complain people have about the EU is that it isn't democratic enough, why not do something about that?

[parochial boy]

Fair enough for the Netherlands I guess - but really this exactly the sort of mind-boggling stupidity that just gives ammunition to eurosceptics.

If people don't take the European parliament elections seriously, there is a reason for that, and finding ways to tell people they are voting "wrong" is only going to be counterproductive.

I'm guessing this is hardly gonna be a big issue, and I don't know why Eurosceptics should be particularly incensed. E.g. in Germany, I guess this would favour AfD a bit if someone vote for them instead of NPD or other smaller parties. I generally think election systems should be as fair and proportional as possible, but if they keep the threshold in the lower band (1-3%), it is not a giant problem, I think. My preferred option in Germany would probably be to just shift to D'Hondt, which I think would raise the threshold to around 1%.

Like, the most legitimate complain people have about the EU is that it isn't democratic enough, why not do something about that?

Perhaps because people disagree about what democracy is? Some think the EP should get more and more powers, so as to resemble a nation state democracy with a strong parliament. Others think the most democratic would be to abolish the EP and let all decisions be taken in the Council since ministers are representatives of national elections with higher turnout, interest and therefore democratic legitimacy.

It's the optics really, in so far as it looks like, not so much a power grab as the council telling voters off for choosing fringe parties. I absolutely agree that it won't be a news story that anyone pays attention to, but it could help to drive a certain narrative about the EU.

As for disagreeing about what democracy is, I've made the same argument as you about the council of ministers in the past - but it doesn't really hold with people, as it is just a bit too indirect as a form of representation (and of course, removes non-government parties from the picture).

[parochial boy]

Also saw this today:
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/996765544459243520
Any other "eco-socialist" parties that could join them? I guess it's doubtful the Portuguese, Greeks and Danes make it in, though...

This must be the Varoufakis project, DiEM25. So his own new party, MeRA 25, will probably run with them as well, but I have no idea whether he will able to win a seat in Greece. I think the Czech Pirates is a part of it, and they would likely do very well. Barcelona mayor Ada Colau has been involved too, but I don't know whether any of the parties backing her could join. Unlike Eurovision, Australia won't take part, so I guess we won't see the Wikileaks Party

Lol, what would this be, the "we used to be famous" group?

[parochial boy]

In real life, what party will Kukiz and Razem join?.

In real life, what party will Kukiz and Razem join?.

Surely Razem would go in GUE and Kukiz in with whatever the FN group is calling itself? (There is also the matter of Korwin's new party...)

I am a member of Razem and this is a matter of some internal debate within the party. The issue is that nobody in the party really wants to join S&D, which is seen as having too moderate a profile and also contains SLD, which is a domestic opponent, but the obvious alternative is GUE and a lot of people are iffy about joining an EP group which includes open Communists and tankies as such an association might damage Razem's domestic electoral prospects. At the moment they are very much hoping that Varoufakis' thing actually takes off and spares them having to choose between S&D and GUE, but if it doesn't (and it is unlikely to), the approach seems to be 'we'll cross that bridge if/when we come to it (if/when we actually win seats)'.

Is that really a concern? I mean, how many people could even name a Euro parliamentary group, let alone who is in any of them?

[parochial boy]

The lefties gaining? Maybe that'll convince S&D to start acting more like an opposition and less like a rubber stamp

[parochial boy]

Oh I get it, this is compared to polling in May, not the last elections. I was thinking there was no way S&D could gain given the self immolation of the PS and PD

[parochial boy]

I propose that Macron calls his new group LIDL

(Really hope no-one has already made this joke)

[parochial boy]

Greens - 93.8%
GUE/NGL - 90.1%
S&D - 82.7%
ALDE - 54.9%
EPP - 40.1%
ENF - 19.9%
ECR - 10.5%

Guess I'm too much of a Eurofederalist for GUE/NGL

Top parties:
Initiative for Green Catalonia - 97.4%
Austrian Greens - 97.4%
Vasemmistoliitto (Finland) - 95.5%
Lithuanian Farmers and Greens - 93.6%
EQUO (Spain) - 93.5%
ERC (Spain) - 93.5%
German Greens - 93.4%
EELV (France) - 93.3%
Verjamem (Slovenia) - 93.0% (who?)
Vihreä liitto (Finland) - 92.9%
Latvian Russian Union - 92.0%
LMP (Hungary) - 91.0%
Front de Gauche - 91.0% (umm, keep up guys...)

[parochial boy]

Lol at the Lithuanian Farmers Party

Maybe I just have tepid conservative views when it comes to Lithuanian politics ok?

[parochial boy]

Without knowing the methodology, I think it's a bit presumptuous to just discount a poll because we don't like the results. The UK is actually the closest, but even 60%-40%, is probably an outlier, but there have been a couple of other polls in the same region, so getting that sort of an outlier could happen even without the poll being completely methodologically absurd.

The more salient point is that polling hypothetical referendum questions is often close to meaningless, as public opinion often changes very rapidly when you go from being something that they don't seriously think about, to something they will actually have to vote about; and the UK is the only country where the EU is really on the cards.

[parochial boy]

And the FN were at 25% in 2014. So flatlining isn't really all that great given how unpopular Macron is, how the traditional parties habe imploded and how RWPPs have progressed elsewhere

[parochial boy]

Why are all parties so fractured in France.

Egos

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Egos

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Egos

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Egos

Get the point?

[parochial boy]

Why are all parties so fractured in France.

Egos

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Egos

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Egos

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Egos

Get the point?

Oh come on, not all of it can be directly attributed to egos of the party leaders.

On the last point I do have some insight. The PCF has a more strict sense of obeying Marxist-Leninist dogma than the “movement” that is FI; being made up of a hodgepodge of old school social democrats, Green dissenters, and Leftist French Nationalists. Since the PCF won’t budge on policy and contains members hesitant on coalition cooperation, the parties remain separate.

Well, the PCF really gave up the doctrinaire marxism in the Robert Hue days, if not before.

They backed Méluche in 2012 (the front de gauche days); didn't not back him in the presidential last year; and then fell out in the legislatives, largely over a question of who gets which candidates + fear of being overpowered by Méluche. Then, one of the big stories of this autumn was a massive falling out between Ian Brossat (head of the PCF list) and Adrien Quatennens, the FI député.

So yes, as with basically everything that happens in French politics, I think "egos" pretty much covers it

[parochial boy]

That seems like quite a poor number for C's though?

[parochial boy]

"Yellow vest" party would be really dumb imo. Not only is the movement totally ideologically incoherent; but, unlike M5S it is supposed to be all over the place. Also, a "Yellow vest" party implies "Yellow vest leaders" which is also totally counter to what the movement was about, as you can see in the response to all of the alleged spokesmen who got media profiles.

[parochial boy]

Eum, why?





I don't think I can vote for them, even if i wanted too?

Are they going to try and run in all of Europe with their own party?

Which parties have adhered to this?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_in_Europe_Movement_2025#National_parties_associated_with_DiEM25_(European_Spring)

As muh as I like the idea of it, that is a bunch of really crap parties there...

[parochial boy]

The Greens are polling at 9% in the new Ö24 poll, their best result so far in an EU poll (NOW are at 2%).

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Strache-gewinnt-nach-Papa-Monat/368980577

Presumably the fact that it's been 15°C at 2000m altitude in February is quite helpful for them...

[parochial boy]

Europe should be more like Spain imo

[parochial boy]

Europe should be more like Spain imo

Saving this for the day PP-Cs-Vox is formed

Depends how many people Pablo Iglesias manages to alienate in the next two months

[parochial boy]

Europe should be more like Spain imo

Saving this for the day PP-Cs-Vox is formed

Same

I mean, looking at the poll results, they are surprising but not overwhelmingly so.

Spain has always been more pro EU and pro inmigrant than average.

The rejected EU constitution passed 82-18 over here after all, albeit under abysmal turnout (43%). France rejected it 45-55 and the Netherlands rejected it 38-62). Even Luxembourg (a country you would never expect to be anti-EU in any way) only gave it a 57-43 vote! 67% support for further integration seems accurate.

The rise of Vox isn't based on inmigration as much as it is based on Catalonia (though inmigration is still a big platform issue, but not the main driving force for their initial rise I think). According to this same poll, inmigration is only a worry for 6% of Spaniards, compared to 15% of Italians, 23% of French, 30% of Germans or 39% of Austrians.

The fact that the question "Do you agree with "Spaniards first"? is a very divisive 48-46 is extremely telling.

Yeah, this definitely isn't the first poll that has been posted showing the Spanish being more pro-EU, pro-immigrant and so on. IIRC, a part of it was down to having had a nationalist dictator within living memory; but also the rapid secularisation and decline of catholicism - which kind of has a neat parallel with the most progressive regions of France tending to be places like Brittany, which underwent a similar rapid secularisation towards the end of the 20th century.

And new right wing government or no, Spain (and Portugal) are still pretyy unusual in Europe in being places where left wing parties get 40-45% or more of the vote.

[parochial boy]

So in France will there a Yellow vests list on the ballot ? I see polling that include them but I thought the Yellow vests are really a confederation of very diverse protest groups and there is no way there could be a list with a coherent platform.  

From what I can tell, there are two separate "Gilets jaunes" lists as of today - one called "Alliance Jaune" led by Francis Lalane and another one called "Evolution Citoyenne" led by Christophe Chalençon. Simplifying somewha; Lalanne is a bit more Green-lefty; and Chalençon is a bit more nationalist-righty (both, mostly, are self-important "grandes gueules" essentially). Other figures have also cropped up on Philippot and NDA's lists.

But basically yeah, the reason they are all polling shambolically is because, well the lack of a unifiying ideologicall. That, and a big part of the movement from the very beginning has been the vehement rejection of any form of "leadership" or "spokesmen" (I mean, who even remembers Ingrid Levavaseur now?)

[parochial boy]

So in France will there a Yellow vests list on the ballot ? I see polling that include them but I thought the Yellow vests are really a confederation of very diverse protest groups and there is no way there could be a list with a coherent platform.  

From what I can tell, there are two separate "Gilets jaunes" lists as of today - one called "Alliance Jaune" led by Francis Lalane and another one called "Evolution Citoyenne" led by Christophe Chalençon. Simplifying somewha; Lalanne is a bit more Green-lefty; and Chalençon is a bit more nationalist-righty (both, mostly, are self-important "grandes gueules" essentially). Other figures have also cropped up on Philippot and NDA's lists.

But basically yeah, the reason they are all polling shambolically is because, well the lack of a unifiying ideologicall. That, and a big part of the movement from the very beginning has been the vehement rejection of any form of "leadership" or "spokesmen" (I mean, who even remembers Ingrid Levavaseur now?)

Update, French lists have now been confirmed. 33 standing in all, including a third gilets jaunes one, «Mouvement pour l’initiative citoyenne» who seem to be a single issue one about getting the RIC (citizen's inititiave referendum, one of the only consistent demands of the protestors) though. I'm gonna stick my neck out and predict that none of the three lists gets over 1% of the vote.

Here is al 33 lists. All the familiar names but a few oddballs include:

- Une France royale au coeur de l’Europe (lol)
 - La Ligne Claire  - led by Renaud Camus, the man behind the "great replacement" theory that inspired, among others, the terrorist attacks in Christchurch
 - Liste de la reconquête - straight out Fascists
 - The European Federalist party
 - a bunch of other special interest parties ("youth", "artisans and independents", "esperanto"(?), lots of different shades of green...)

By the looks of it, the move to a single constituency has destroyed all the regionalist parties you used to get. I can't see any led by the like of Christian Troadec, for example.

[parochial boy]

When the issue of Brexit ends, so too does the Lib Dem and Brexit surge. The 3 are highly correlated, so I doubt that after the issue is solved(however it is) that the surge will continue.

Whatever happens the question of our relationship with the EU will carry on being a significant issue for decades. So no, it’s not ending any time soon.

And it's also a foil for broader worldviews. What you think about Brexit automatically tells me what you think about a the world generally. So maybe Brexit does or doesn't happen, but the broader debates at the heart of Brexit (trade policy, immigration, foreign investment, globalism, nationalism) are only just getting heated up. Maybe the Lib Dems and the Farage clown car come and go, but they'll be embraces by the Tories and Labour all the same.

And next to nothing about issues of distribution of wealth, housing, austerity, job precarity... Which were all factors that galvanised Labour's support in 2017. Those issues won't dissapear and Labour are hardly going to either want to, or benefit from, giving up on the electorate they won in 2017 by going off and aping the Lib Dems.

Bear in mind that London is a city with major social inequalities, it isn't just home to the mythical "metropolitan elites" of Notting Hill.