European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

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Ha, that “someone” being the EU themselves. That is an EU-commissioned poll...

Given that polling here essentially gives a statistical tie you should adjust accordingly.

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Did you guys know that Manfred Weber is the European version of Beto O'Rourke ?

Clearly not since Weber is going to win.

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Brexit Party surge.



https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/04/13/tories-and-labour-face-uphill-struggle-european-el

And that poll was conducted before the party was launched.

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It’s almost like we really do want to leave...

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This may or may not be an outlier, but...



The Brexit Party ahead of Labour and the Conservatives combined.

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When the issue of Brexit ends, so too does the Lib Dem and Brexit surge. The 3 are highly correlated, so I doubt that after the issue is solved(however it is) that the surge will continue.

Whatever happens the question of our relationship with the EU will carry on being a significant issue for decades. So no, it’s not ending any time soon.

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I’m confused about how and when the results will be released. Are results being released tomorrow or Sunday?

Tomorrow some countries start polling day voting (some have already started early votes). Results will be released on Sunday.

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There are reports of many administrative mistakes in the UK that led EU citizens legally entitled to vote being prevented from doing so. If that's big enough I wonder if the elections will be annulled.

No.

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United Kingdom

Will voters punish the traditional two main parties — Labour and Conservative — for failing to deliver Brexit by switching to the new political movement fronted by anti-EU MEP Nigel Farage? And while the anti-Brexit vote will be split by the Liberal Democrats, the Green Party and Change UK, will it add up to more than that of Farage’s Brexit Party?

The big story of the night will be how well the conservatives do in terms of percentage of the vote. If they are around 15%, they are doing better than people expected. If they are around 10%, they are doing worse. If the Greens beat them as might happen, that is an extremely bad sign for them. Whilst the polls say differently, I expect the Lib Dems to beat Labour (narrowly). The Lib Dems have momentum (pun intended) over Labour, who have been consistently been dropping in the polls. If the Brexit party get more than 35%, they will be doing better than expected, yet anything under 30% and many will say that they have really failed based on what was expected. Looking at turnout figures, it seems that the remain voters are coming out, whilst the leave voters are disenfranchised and don't seem to want to come out. This means that the nationwide popular vote will be worse than the overall seats for the Brexit party. They will probably still get as many seats as people expect though because the leave areas and the remain areas are largely concentrated in particular areas. As for areas to look at, the South East and London are where a lot of the remain vote is. To work out who will come second (Labour or Lib Dems), who is winning here will give a strong indication as to who will be the overall second place winner. If the Labour party are holding their ground in the north (These are where the early results come in), they may have a good night. If the Lib Dems are doing very well in the South West (Where I'm from), this could be a good sign for them. Hope my knowledge on the UK helps!

Winning Spinning Here