European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

About PiS, I wonder, why couldn't they join EPP as well? Having their main rivals in the same group will definitely be uncomfortable but there are also several rivals which share group.

This is not level where we can call such situation uncomfortable. 50% (or maybe more) of PiS narration is that PO is corrupted, they are all thieves and traitors which are preferring telling BIG BAD LIES about PiS in Brussels rather than working for the good cause etc. Even PiS members are joining narration that PO is party of German interests. Of course there is no problem if some PO members want to join PiS or its allies if he or she is useful and enough influential. Still such change will be time consuming and costly for PiS of course taking into consideration Polish political scene. They will have to explain voters that they are joining not only PO in one political group but also they are cooperating with people like Juncker and Tusk which on the right are not really liked people. They are diplomatic dummies but as for the internal political game they are not that stupid and yet not that prideful to risk that much.

Perhaps our Polish posters know which far-right parties could win seats? Are Kukiz a potential ENF member? Will Korwin-Mikke make it in again?

We can't really tell for sure how Kukiz committee will look in PE elections. As for now he have problems with nationalists and he openly said that he regret cooperation with some nationalist circles (although he didn't mentioned anyone specifically). We can also exclude cooperation with Kukiz and Korwin as former Kukiz MP, former presidential candidate and former member of former Korwin party joined Wolność party (current Korwin party) in the atmosphere of financial scandal as there are some shenanigans with KNP (former Korwin party) finances. As for now Kukiz club is more con-liberal, recently one Kukiz club MP joined UPR (even further former party where Korwin was leader) so now they have 3 members and they have possibility to create their own parliamentary organisation (but they will not do that as they are as for now staunchly stand behind Kukiz). In my opinion there are two possible scenarios: Kukiz will support only "Kukizist" candidates and conliberal candidates what would be the best for EFDD (if they will still exist) and second scenario is every MEP elected decides for himself.

Polish right to the right of PiS is very "liquid" and I am not sure if Korwin will still have his party or maybe something strange will happen in his tree-house. Also a lot of people is disillusioned with Korwin so I doubt he is able to again reach threshold. Everything depends on turnout and if Porozumienie (PiS para-conliberal ally which leader is former PO member https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alliance_(Poland)) will start alone like its predecessor in 2014.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

I truly wonder for which party I will vote.

But to be honest you still have a lot of candidates to choose from. I am in much worse situation.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

My prediction:


no one will care about that elections, turnout will be absurdly low although probably a bit higher than in 2014.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Noise activity. None of the member parties are likely to get people elected. An alliance of unelected politicians. Alternativet and Razem may get elected, but this like Libertas back in History, De Villiers got elected since MPF had enough hardcore supporters to be elected. If the toxicated and AFD go to ENF, Five-star-movement could form a group with these guys.

Wait what, you said that Razem would form a group with M5S?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Although by Western European standards probably half of the Polish Sejm MP would be considered as hard-line nationalists we must take into consideration that we are talking about Poland and Polish political scene so as nationalists I label only those people who consider themselves as nationalists, National Democrats etc.

Kukiz is very problematic due to few issues:


1) They are not a political party from a formal point of view, rather chain of umbrella organisations for various groups. There is parliamentary club Kukiz'15 and there is also NGO Stowarzyszenie Kukiz'15. Due to name probably you can guess who is the most important person inside all those organisations. All of them are ruled by Paweł Kukiz and generally if someone have problem about cooperation with him usually end not being member of his organisations. We still don't know what will be strategy of Kukiz for EP elections. He is a little bit unpredictable, changing his mind often so as for now we just can only guess.

2) As for now the conliberal (rather focused on economy, low taxes, economic liberty but more flexible than Korwinists) faction is the strongest in the parliamentary club so knowing history of for example Korwin MEPs, Kukiz MEPs might end in various factions similarly. There is some sort of liquidity in group of that particular type of politicians, they in one point of their career might end up in centre-right organisations but also might turn into some sort of nationalist. What is interesting is fact that cooperation with Korwin is not really going well even taking into consideration similar political views (especially in field of economy) with some of the Kukiz MPs. What is more, Korwin groupies are usually not fans of Kukiz.

3) There were indeed nationalists elected from the Kukiz'15 electoral lists but as for now they are mostly outside the Kukiz'15 club. Their strategy from 2015 was successful (sort of Trojan horse tactics where Kukiz list was a Trojan horse) but as for now probably Kukiz as he is more experienced will be more reluctant in making such electoral deals. There were attempts to consolidate those circles which were on one hand somewhere near Kukiz and nationalist concerning political views but it failed and was buried few months ago. As for now the nationalist camp is weakened and disorganized, divided into ca. 4 major camps and 10 farcial organisations (that type of groups of ca. 15 people who have channel on YT which usually is called NATIONAL TV or something and 99% of their activity is some sort of protest, recording it and uploading on youtube) and I doubt any of them at the moment can successfully participate in the EP elections. Even low turnout will not help them if there will be no some political earthquake in Poland or Europe.

4) Kukiz brought to Sejm few MPs which were not politicians, known politicians or were forgotten politicians and they left Kukiz or were kicked out of his treehouse and now they are independent. There is Wolni i Solidarni, political organisation of Kornel Morawiecki (father of current PM of Poland, veteran anti-communist dissident which few years ago was considered as totally irrelevant and even pitiful politician, in presidential elections in 2010 he got only 0,13% of votes and was last, he was continuously failing to get any sort of relevance and political success) which now build his structures and seek to have coalition in local elections with PiS. Such initiatives might influence what Kukiz will do and how will he behave so we must also take into consideration that Kukiz have a lot of so called anti-establishment (not even mentioning that PiS is also anti-establishment while being sort of paralel establishment, Polish stuff which explaining will require another post) and protest parties.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

In real life, what party will Kukiz and Razem join?.

In real life, what party will Kukiz and Razem join?.

Surely Razem would go in GUE and Kukiz in with whatever the FN group is calling itself? (There is also the matter of Korwin's new party...)

I am a member of Razem and this is a matter of some internal debate within the party. The issue is that nobody in the party really wants to join S&D, which is seen as having too moderate a profile and also contains SLD, which is a domestic opponent, but the obvious alternative is GUE and a lot of people are iffy about joining an EP group which includes open Communists and tankies as such an association might damage Razem's domestic electoral prospects. At the moment they are very much hoping that Varoufakis' thing actually takes off and spares them having to choose between S&D and GUE, but if it doesn't (and it is unlikely to), the approach seems to be 'we'll cross that bridge if/when we come to it (if/when we actually win seats)'.

Can't even imagine Razem in one faction with Linke or KSČM, but probably Crabcake was thinking about similarities with Podemos which might help start some sort of cooperation.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Yeah, why not the European Greens for Razem?

It doesn't seem to be under consideration for several reasons:

1) Many of the people who started Razem defected from the Polish Greens and there is still animosity between the parties, and the Polish Greens, despite their irrelevance, cooperate heavily with the German Greens
2) Razem's stance on nuclear power is an awkward compromise between pro- and anti-nuclear wings of the party

As far as I observe Polish left infobubble between Razem and Greens there is also issue of GMO, but you as a member probably have better knowledge about "ordinary member" views on that issue.

As for the knowledge about EP groups if you would like to do an experiment and try to find people with such knowledge there are bigger chances that you will find them in parties with young electorate like Razem or Korwin than any other parties. So probably this is not that big issue for the typical voter but if controversial alliance in EP have chances to backfire it have much bigger chances to happen in Razem than in other mainstream parties.

Yeah, why not the European Greens for Razem?

Although by Western European standards probably half of the Polish Sejm MP would be considered as hard-line nationalists

I mean, half the Polish Sejm MPs are in PiS...

One thing is narration and what leaders and key people in party are saying and doing and other thing is who ordinary MP is. And often those PiS "backbenchers" are not that much different from for example PO members and not even mentioning PSL. There are various factions in PiS and party is not a monolith.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

https://www.neweurope.eu/article/looking-alliances-redefine-european-political-landscape/


After reading that text I have impression that ECR is considered by NVA as already non-existing. I guess PiS will have big trouble after next EP elections.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Maybe more Eurosceptic organisations could be pinched from EPP and even ALDE to form a new replacement ECR: Fidesz being the obvious one.

Don't think any EPP/ALDE parties would join any group in which Fidesz would take part. It's more likely that PiS just take over ECR and have Fidesz join. But Fidesz will only leave EPP if they are kicked out.

I think a merger between EFD and ECR should be an option too. What's the point of having two groups that, without UKIP and the Tories, essentially want the same thing?

PiS obviously is thinking about second term and I guess they can't always live on conflict with Brussels so they need to have some sort of possibility to maneuver. ECR is maybe not loved by EPP and S&D but still is considered as a civilized group due to Tories and ODS. Making fusion with faction associated with UKiP and fu**ing Korwin is not really beneficial for PiS in that case. They need to have someone on their right to looks more acceptable and more plausible as a partner to possible future ALDE-EPP-S&D commission and parliament.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Hamon few days ago was in Warsaw, cooperation between Varoufakis team continue to grow.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

PiS seems to want move to the EPP according to Polish media EU Observer is reporting

https://euobserver.com/tickers/142003

They have to outlaw PO first.

Well, if both the Catalan secessionist PDECat and the fervently Spanish unionist UPyD and Cs can be both in ALDE, I guess PO and PiS can also be in the same group

Though I guess for Poland it would make more sense if PO moved to ALDE if PiS moves to EPP?

Maybe from the arithmetic sense and representation in various factions yes. But I doubt that PO would resign from membership in EPP which mostly from all europarties can give them some posts in EU structures. ALDE can't grant them anything of relevance. And for PO narration about being important in Europe and being "serious partner" for European politicians is crucial in competition with PiS. And that narration require to keep PiS out of the relevant guys club - so out of the EPP.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1009134141458321408

I know this has been mentioned many times, but does anyone have more insight on this? The last thing I heard was that Fidesz's people were talking to ENF's people, but this seems to suggest a new group.

http://nepszava.hu/cikk/1162579-mar-bekulne-a-nepparttal-a-fidesz

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

From Poland 0 MEPs for ALDE and 0 for Macronites.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

From Poland 0 MEPs for ALDE and 0 for Macronites.

You think Schetyna will screw .N that badly in the coalition?

Well, I am taking into consideration PiS attempts to change voting system for EP elections. PO probably would not like to in that new system cooperate with smaller parties.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

To be honest CU never fitted in my opinion to the ECR.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Ugh, there is again that annoying gossip that Robert Biedroń will start his own political initiative and that initiative will be aimed for first European Parliament elections and then the Sejm elections. His initiative will probably called "Kocham Polskę" (eng: I love Poland) and it will be probably next initiative to UNITE THE LEFT by creating next bleak and boring organisation of few ambitious, younger politicians who are still looking for their place between SLD and Razem. I guess there are chances that there will be no S&D MEPs from Poland, even when there will be no changes in the electoral system (which PiS is not trying to pass).

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

GUE-NL might do well. They'll at least have a few (new) seats from Belgium, and also would win a bit in the Netherlands, Sweden and France.

Isn't there now a cold war between FI, UP and Scandinavians in one team and Linke and Syriza in another team? As far as I know Melenchon started some new political pan-European initiative.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

If you are talking about parties there is also ECPM but they are cooperating with ECR.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Trust me that nobody normal outside the Benelux knows who he is nor what he stands for. Plenty of commissioners have meaningful profiles like Oettinger, Moscovici, and of course Vestager - maybe Renzi is trying to keep Vestager away from the Presidency by setting up a socialist lead candidate.

In Poland Timmermans is well known, probably even more that any economic issues commisioner.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Greens/EFA: 77.22%

S&D: 73.89%

GUE-NGL: 72.78%

ALDE/ADLE: 51.11%

EPP: 34.44%

ENF: 32.12%

EFDD: 31.67%

ECR: 18.89%

As for the parties:
Highest:
Lehet Más A Politika
Hungary
86.16%

Lowest:
Liberal-Conservative Refomists
Germany
10.19%

As for the politicians top 3 are:

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Nicola Beer
‏@nicolabeerfdp

Astrid Panosyan, co-founder of @enmarchefr, announces cooperation between #ALDE & #EnMarche at #ALDEcongress in Madrid!
Together towards European Elections 2019!🤝🇪🇺
@Liberale_News @ALDEParty @ALDEgroup @ALDEIndMembers @ALDE_CoR #LaREM

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Dupont-Aignan entered electoral alliance with ECR what probably means that he will join ECR after the elections.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Other thing that Melenchon strictly wanted all candidates to use only FI logo and posters approved by FI HQ which was totally stupid.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

GUE/NGL may or may not run a candidate. If they do, likely candidates include Gregor Gysi (Linke-Germany) as well as Jean Luc Melenchon (FI-France)

Isn't Melenchon party almost not a member of GUE-NGL? As far as I know currently they are ignoring GUE events and planing to start their own group without Linke and Syriza.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

So Salvini today had meeting with Kaczyński, and yesterday di Maio with Kukiz. As for the common group after the elections Kukiz + Movimento is pretty plausible and possible, I can't really imagine tight cooperation between Lega and PiS.

https://www.euronews.com/2019/01/09/salvini-says-italy-will-work-with-poland-to-build-new-europe?fbclid=IwAR2fSV70HbnqxSaldmCJt0IeK8l5751rVnuYwEC-1MPh_VZB8i96NUtj1IA