European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[TheSaint250]

We are over one year away from the European Parliament elections throughout the EU, so it’s time for a thread!

[DavidB.]

The proposed system according to which the UK's seats would become a transnational constituency was sadly rejected. The idea was that people would have two votes: one "traditional" vote for a national party in a national constituency, one for European lists (liberals, social democrats, nationalists... you name it).

[TheSaint250]

The proposed system according to which the UK's seats would become a transnational constituency was sadly rejected. The idea was that people would have two votes: one "traditional" vote for a national party in a national constituency, one for European lists (liberals, social democrats, nationalists... you name it).

Would the European lists have been the European parties?

[Former President tack50]

The proposed system according to which the UK's seats would become a transnational constituency was sadly rejected. The idea was that people would have two votes: one "traditional" vote for a national party in a national constituency, one for European lists (liberals, social democrats, nationalists... you name it).

Yeah, that was a very unfortunate thing

They are apparently talking about implementing that for 2024 election but I'm almost certain that in 2023 they will refuse to do it.

In the end some of the UK's seats will be left vacant, with  27 of them being reapportioned to get more proportionality. The reapportioned seats are:

France, Spain: +5
Italy, Netherlands: +3
Ireland: +2
Denmark, Estonia, Croatia, Austria, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Finland, Sweden: +1

So the EU parliament will have 705 seats instead of 751.

And yes, the European parties would almost certainly be the transnational lists. My guess is that the 5 parties that presented an "Spitzenkandidat" in 2014 (EPP, S&D, G/EFA, ALDE, GUE/NGL) would present transnational lists.

The other 3 big groups (ECR, EFDD, ENF) are more of a mystery. I guess there would be at least 1 euroskeptic list.

[DavidB.]

It's the question what will happen with ECR now that the Tories will be gone. This group is already a bit of a hotchpotch, with secular-ish conservative parties (Tories, ODS), secular parties that are not even really conservative (N-VA), Christian conservative parties (CU-SGP), Eastern European right-wing populists (PiS) and Western European radical right-wing parties of the more "light" variety (the Finns Party, who were "radical light" in 2014 but have moved to the right and will probably join ENF in 2019, and Danish DF). An unnatural combination of parties that might well disband after this parliamentary term.

EFD have a bigger problem than ECR, however. While there is definitely space between EPP and ENF, EFD aren't viable without UKIP. M5S will have a problem, but I guess most of the other parties could join ENF. Would be most awkward for the Sweden Democrats, who seek to avoid the stigma that cooperation with parties like AfD/FN/FPÖ might bring.

Another big question is: what will Macron do? Currently, EPP and S&D are in some sort of a "permanent coalition". However, Macron is apparently interested in creating a new parliamentary group consisting of Eurofederalists: he views federalism vs. euroskepticism as the divide that defines political competition in Europe. It is the question whether this attempt will be successful, though, and in the end he could simply join ALDE, where LREM would probably immediately become the largest party anyway.

[windjammer]

Well,
I expect ALDE to be on the rise. It wouldn't be surprising if EPP-SD could lose their absolute majority.

[DavidB.]

I guess this will also depend on the number of seats EPP manage to "pick up" on their right by having parties currently in ECR and EFD join them.

It really sucks for PiS that PO are already in the EPP, because otherwise they could have joined them following the disintegration of ECR. We already know EPP have no problem with right-wing authoritarians as long as they keep delivering majorities in the EP, and the EPP would protect the PiS government from EU attacks on Poland that Hungary has never had to endure because of Fidesz' EPP membership.

[Vosem]

Is ECR certain to disintegrate? They're represented in 15 member states (14 if you discount the United Kingdom), so they have a while to fall before they disappear off the map, and it seems like some of those parties don't necessarily have anywhere else to go. Obviously without the Conservatives they'd be a much more marginal grouping, but I don't know that I necessarily see them disappearing.

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ will likely have a bad result next year ... while the ÖVP should easily win.

[Former President tack50]

About PiS, I wonder, why couldn't they join EPP as well? Having their main rivals in the same group will definitely be uncomfortable but there are also several rivals which share group.

Here for example both PDECat and Cs are in ALDE even though they hate each other.

And yeah, I guess there is room for ECR to continue anyways. I guess there will be  groups in the next EP. From left to right

GUE/NGL
G/EFA
SD
ALDE
EPP
ECR (or another similar "further right than the EPP" group)
ENF (or another "Far right, euroskeptic" group)

[Diouf]

EPP will pick their lead candidate in their Helsinki congress on 7-8 November 2018. Perhaps crowning Katainen at home? He seems the most likely candidate of the current commisioners with his background as Finnish PM. He is not very charismatic, and can easily sound technocratic and boring. If the EPP wants someone who sounds less EU-fanatic, he would be an okay chance. There has also been much talk about Michel Barnier, but I tend to doubt it. I can see all the ways he would be a classical EU frontperson with the "French connection" and long cliche speeches about more Europe, but I think his role as Brexit negotiatior will not really be an advantage. First of all, I guess he will be invested it in for many months to come, and having Mr. Brexit as the lead candidate is maybe not the best signal. But there does not seem to be a lot of impressive, potential candidates. Maybe Dacian Cioloş? Also a former Commissioner and former PM.

PES is also committed to the process, but I haven't seen an exact date yes. The Social Democrats are in trouble in many places, and their leading party this term, PD, is likely to deliver another Social Democrat disappointment in a few days. A few commissioners could be interested. Federica Mogherini is perhaps the most obvious, representing a big party in a big post, and she has been quite competent in her role and can be charismatic. However, she is quite pro-migration, and, to the very limited degree, the lead candidates will influence the European debate, that is probably not a very good sell. Moscovici and Timmermans has also been touted as candidates, but meh. I don't know if any of the former PMs would be interested. Renzi? Thorning? Di Rupo?

ALDE will choose their candidate in their congress in Madrid on 8-10 november. Whether they will be a serious player will largely depend on what Macron does. Margrethe Vestager has been among the most visible commissioners, and has been Deputy PM. While being strongly pro-EU, she is able to communicate without too many of the "More Europe" clichees. Macron seems to like her. Taavi Rõivas looks like he is quite active internally in ALDE, and could be another option. He has PM experience, and I think he could be a relatively broadly acceptable choice in ALDE, which still seems split between Social Liberals and Market Liberals.

Greens and GUE will likely nominate candidates, but with no chance of becoming Commission President. So they could nominate energetic MEPs to attack the other parties from the left. Someone like Ska Keller did that decently last time for the Greens for example.

Any other likely candidates?

[DavidB.]

About PiS, I wonder, why couldn't they join EPP as well? Having their main rivals in the same group will definitely be uncomfortable but there are also several rivals which share group.

I suppose PO have a veto, which they would definitely use.

Agree with tack's grouping of post-2019 parliamentary groups.

Is ECR certain to disintegrate? They're represented in 15 member states (14 if you discount the United Kingdom), so they have a while to fall before they disappear off the map, and it seems like some of those parties don't necessarily have anywhere else to go. Obviously without the Conservatives they'd be a much more marginal grouping, but I don't know that I necessarily see them disappearing.

Yeah, I agree, I don't think they will necessarily disintegrate; after all, there has to be some "soft euroskeptic" parliamentary group and indeed, some of them have nowhere to go. But it's also not unlikely that they do disintegrate, and I expect them to lose more parties than just the Tories. Some Western European parties might be uncomfortable with being in a group in which PiS will be by far the largest party (if they stay in themselves).

Any other likely candidates?

Wouldn't say it's "likely", but Dutch PM Rutte would be a potential candidate on behalf of ALDE (though I think it is more likely he would want to become a European Commissioner). There is much speculation about Rutte going to Brussels for a top job after the 2019 European election and making Klaas Dijkhoff the Dutch PM. This would be less likely with Macron in ALDE as I think he would regard Rutte as too critical of eurofederalism (but it wouldn't matter for the European Commission, of course, unless he would go for the top job). The VVD is on the right-wing side within ALDE in general, but Rutte has a lot of experience (including experience in "fending off populists") and could sell himself quite well if he wanted to. I personally think it is still more likely that he stays on as PM, but we can't discard the possibility.

[Former President tack50]

Apparently the requirements to form an EP group are:

- 25 MEPs
- At least 1/4 of all member states must have representation in the group (7 countries)

So, looking at each group:

EPP: They'll easily pass this. They will be represented in all countries after Brexit (the UK was the only one without EPP members) and have a lot of large parties

S&D: Same as EPP. They'll get the requirements extremely easily. Several large parties and represented everywhere. Losing Labour is a bad thing though, especially now that they are doing well.

ALDE: Represented in 19 countries (they lack: Italy, Latvia, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Greece and Cyprus) . Not sure if they could add any to their list or if any would drop out. Still, it seems they won't have much trouble. Though adding LREM would be a huge boost. The Lib Dems were already very small so losing them isn't a big deal.

G/EFA: Represented in 18 countries (not in Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, Cyprus, Portugal). However iirc several green parties are having trouble, and the "EFA" countries aren't that big. Plus losing the SNP, Plaid and the Greens will hurt them.

GUE/NGL: Represented in 18 countries (not in Belgium, Luxembourg, Austria, and literally all of former communist eastern Europe except the Czech Republic!). The far left is doing good, they will survive and rise. Their only UK representative was Sinn Fein with only 1 MEP, so it's not a huge loss (plus Sinn Fein will still have its Irish MEPs anyways)

EFDD: They are dead. They are represented in only 8 countries, of which 3 are just people who switched parties. The Sweden Democrats will join ENF or a successor, the Czech party will drop out of parliament, the Lithuanian party will join ECR and who knows with M5S. Since UKIP was almost all this was, they will be harmed by the UK leaving.

ENF: Represented in 9 countries but 3 are people switching parties. Still, they shouldn't have any trouble getting another party to join them, or maybe the German independent who left AfD will be reelected from BP. KNP in Poland might be toast though. Still, I think they will barely reach both thresholds. No UK representation here other than a UKIP "independent".

[DavidB.]

ENF will definitely have AfD join them; Halla-aho's Finns Party are likely to follow and the Sweden Democrats might have no other option than to do so as well, though ECR could be an option for them too. With their current polling level (much higher than in 2014, when it was extremely close) VB should be able to make it in again. FPÖ, FN, Lega and PVV won't have any problems getting in. Dutch FvD might join ENF as well (but that will obviously not help ENF for the 7 countries requirement). Apart from these parties, they could attract Greek ANEL from ECR (if they get in again) and perhaps some new right-wing splinter parties from Eastern Europe, of which I know nothing.

Anyway, with AfD, FPÖ, FN, Lega, PVV and VB safe or almost safe, they only need one more country.

Perhaps our Polish posters know which far-right parties could win seats? Are Kukiz a potential ENF member? Will Korwin-Mikke make it in again?

[windjammer]

Apparently the requirements to form an EP group are:

- 25 MEPs
- At least 1/4 of all member states must have representation in the group (7 countries)

So, looking at each group:

EPP: They'll easily pass this. They will be represented in all countries after Brexit (the UK was the only one without EPP members) and have a lot of large parties

S&D: Same as EPP. They'll get the requirements extremely easily. Several large parties and represented everywhere. Losing Labour is a bad thing though, especially now that they are doing well.

ALDE: Represented in 19 countries (they lack: Italy, Latvia, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Greece and Cyprus) . Not sure if they could add any to their list or if any would drop out. Still, it seems they won't have much trouble. Though adding LREM would be a huge boost. The Lib Dems were already very small so losing them isn't a big deal.

G/EFA: Represented in 18 countries (not in Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, Cyprus, Portugal). However iirc several green parties are having trouble, and the "EFA" countries aren't that big. Plus losing the SNP, Plaid and the Greens will hurt them.

GUE/NGL: Represented in 18 countries (not in Belgium, Luxembourg, Austria, and literally all of former communist eastern Europe except the Czech Republic!). The far left is doing good, they will survive and rise. Their only UK representative was Sinn Fein with only 1 MEP, so it's not a huge loss (plus Sinn Fein will still have its Irish MEPs anyways)

EFDD: They are dead. They are represented in only 8 countries, of which 3 are just people who switched parties. The Sweden Democrats will join ENF or a successor, the Czech party will drop out of parliament, the Lithuanian party will join ECR and who knows with M5S. Since UKIP was almost all this was, they will be harmed by the UK leaving.

ENF: Represented in 9 countries but 3 are people switching parties. Still, they shouldn't have any trouble getting another party to join them, or maybe the German independent who left AfD will be reelected from BP. KNP in Poland might be toast though. Still, I think they will barely reach both thresholds. No UK representation here other than a UKIP "independent".

My prediction:
-EPP: losing a bit but not too much
-SD: losing a bit more than EPP
-ALDE: rising, probably the group that will increase the most its numbers
-G/EFA: they will lose a lot I believe
-GUE/NGL: they will probably remain stable, perhaps a slight increase
-Finally, I believe that the 3 eurosceptic-farright groups: the one from the UKP, the one from the Tories, and the one from the National Front: I believe one of them will disappear, there should be only 2 rightwing/far right groups after the elections. I expect them to remain stable though.

[Diouf]

EPP: They'll easily pass this. They will be represented in all countries after Brexit (the UK was the only one without EPP members) and have a lot of large parties

Interesting whether they can maintain representation in all countries. Estonia could be a problem, I guess. Their only current MEP is from Pro Patria and Res Publica Union, who is low in national polls. Estonian Free Party, who was created in 2014, might be an option, but they are also only around 4-5% currently. In Latvia, Unity, who won 48% in 2014 with former PM Dombrovksis, seems to have totally imploded. But I guess if Dombrovskis runs again, he could win an EPP seat for some new grouping. The many EPP parties in Slovakia and Slovenia all seems to have taken a hit, but it seems likely EPPs would still be elected in both countries. Denmark is also in doubt. Conservatives is a bit on the rise, but still only at 4.5% in national polls, and current MEP Bendt Bendtsen, who has had great personal elections, is not running again.

S&D: Same as EPP. They'll get the requirements extremely easily. Several large parties and represented everywhere. Losing Labour is a bad thing though, especially now that they are doing well.

Social Democrat parties looks like getting cut down in size many places. I wonder how big the bloodbath will be.

ALDE: Represented in 19 countries (they lack: Italy, Latvia, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Greece and Cyprus) . Not sure if they could add any to their list or if any would drop out. Still, it seems they won't have much trouble. Though adding LREM would be a huge boost. The Lib Dems were already very small so losing them isn't a big deal.

With PD in trouble, it should be a lot easier for something like the Bonino +Europa List to get a seat, which I guess would likely end in ALDE. Nowoczesna has fallen quite rapidly again in Poland, but should still have good chances of winning seats.

G/EFA: Represented in 18 countries (not in Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, Cyprus, Portugal). However iirc several green parties are having trouble, and the "EFA" countries aren't that big. Plus losing the SNP, Plaid and the Greens will hurt them.

Pirates in the Czech Republic will likely win seats.

GUE/NGL: Represented in 18 countries (not in Belgium, Luxembourg, Austria, and literally all of former communist eastern Europe except the Czech Republic!). The far left is doing good, they will survive and rise. Their only UK representative was Sinn Fein with only 1 MEP, so it's not a huge loss (plus Sinn Fein will still have its Irish MEPs anyways).

Parti du Travail should get seats in Belgium.

EFDD: They are dead. They are represented in only 8 countries, of which 3 are just people who switched parties. The Sweden Democrats will join ENF or a successor, the Czech party will drop out of parliament, the Lithuanian party will join ECR and who knows with M5S. Since UKIP was almost all this was, they will be harmed by the UK leaving.

Like DavidB, I think Sweden Democrats will go to ECR, where I think they will be welcome (and will bring a few seats). I really wonder what M5S will do, and how sustainable the party actually is (with Grillo losing a bit of interest?)

ENF: Represented in 9 countries but 3 are people switching parties. Still, they shouldn't have any trouble getting another party to join them, or maybe the German independent who left AfD will be reelected from BP. KNP in Poland might be toast though. Still, I think they will barely reach both thresholds. No UK representation here other than a UKIP "independent".

Should have good chances of being formed again. Slovakia could be a good guess to provide the 7th country MEPs with several different options. SNS could return to the European Parliament, Kotleba's new far-right party or perhaps the new We Are Family party. They are all three at 8-9% in current polls.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

About PiS, I wonder, why couldn't they join EPP as well? Having their main rivals in the same group will definitely be uncomfortable but there are also several rivals which share group.

This is not level where we can call such situation uncomfortable. 50% (or maybe more) of PiS narration is that PO is corrupted, they are all thieves and traitors which are preferring telling BIG BAD LIES about PiS in Brussels rather than working for the good cause etc. Even PiS members are joining narration that PO is party of German interests. Of course there is no problem if some PO members want to join PiS or its allies if he or she is useful and enough influential. Still such change will be time consuming and costly for PiS of course taking into consideration Polish political scene. They will have to explain voters that they are joining not only PO in one political group but also they are cooperating with people like Juncker and Tusk which on the right are not really liked people. They are diplomatic dummies but as for the internal political game they are not that stupid and yet not that prideful to risk that much.

Perhaps our Polish posters know which far-right parties could win seats? Are Kukiz a potential ENF member? Will Korwin-Mikke make it in again?

We can't really tell for sure how Kukiz committee will look in PE elections. As for now he have problems with nationalists and he openly said that he regret cooperation with some nationalist circles (although he didn't mentioned anyone specifically). We can also exclude cooperation with Kukiz and Korwin as former Kukiz MP, former presidential candidate and former member of former Korwin party joined Wolność party (current Korwin party) in the atmosphere of financial scandal as there are some shenanigans with KNP (former Korwin party) finances. As for now Kukiz club is more con-liberal, recently one Kukiz club MP joined UPR (even further former party where Korwin was leader) so now they have 3 members and they have possibility to create their own parliamentary organisation (but they will not do that as they are as for now staunchly stand behind Kukiz). In my opinion there are two possible scenarios: Kukiz will support only "Kukizist" candidates and conliberal candidates what would be the best for EFDD (if they will still exist) and second scenario is every MEP elected decides for himself.

Polish right to the right of PiS is very "liquid" and I am not sure if Korwin will still have his party or maybe something strange will happen in his tree-house. Also a lot of people is disillusioned with Korwin so I doubt he is able to again reach threshold. Everything depends on turnout and if Porozumienie (PiS para-conliberal ally which leader is former PO member https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alliance_(Poland)) will start alone like its predecessor in 2014.

[Leftbehind]

Political makeup before redistribution:

32.0 (+3.1) 217 EPP
24.9 (-0.3) 169 S&D (-20)      
  9.9 (+0.8)  67 ALDE (-1)   
  7.8 (-2.1)  53 ECR (-21)         
  7.7 (+0.8)  52 GUENGL (-1)   
  6.6 (-0.2)  45 G/EFA (-6)   
  5.3 (+0.4)  36 ENF (-1)   
  3.1 (-2.9)  21 EFDD (-24)   
  2.2 (-0.2)  15 NI (-3)   

[Former President tack50]

On a sidenote, I wonder how will the nationalist parties do their alliances here in Spain. For almost all of them going alone is essencially suicide (they need 1.5% to get a seat, which is only really doable for the Catalan parties, and even they prefer coalitions)

For reference in 2014 the alliances were:

Coalition for Europe: Catalan CiU+Basque PNV+Canarian CC
The left for the right to decide: ERC (albeit endorsed by Mes in the Balearic Islands)
The peoples decide: Basque Bildu+Galician BNG
European Spring: Valencian Compromís + Equo (a national but tiny green party)

Considering the independence issue, it will be interesting.

As for which groups they'll join, the parties from "Coalition for Europe" will almost certainly join ALDE (unless a strong Cs blocks them. In that case I guess they could join G/EFA. For all what's worth PNV was part of EPP until like 2004).

Bildu will probably join GUE/NGL. The rest will join G/EFA.

[Diouf]

Current polling-based projection from Der (europäische) Föderalist Blog. The below is based on the proposed redistribution of some of the British seats.

EPP 184
S&D 148
ALDE 108
GUE-NGL 66
ECR 49
EFDD 46
ENF 42
Greens 34
Others 28

They have generally assumed that parties will stay in their current groupings, and then made assumptions about the new ones (Macron to ALDE etc.). They have kept EFDD in the oversight despite only projecting five different national delegations to make it (AfD, M5S, Debout la France, TT from Latvia, and Sweden Democrats).

[Zinneke]

I'm thinking we make this thread a general EU-level politics one. I get that there is a psephological argument for seperating what MEPs the countries send to the parliament and the actual conduct of the latter and the other institutions, but there's some big developments coming up before the campaign actually starts that are worth documenting.

The election of the new ECB staff is arguably going to affect Italy and Europe more than their own elections. Yet as per usual it is done in a backroom process of complex intergovernmental interests. While the vice-president is decided soon, the real contest is for 2019 when Mario Draghi, the influential ECB figure behind "saving the Euro at any cost" and expansionist monetary policy, steps down. The frontrunner is German Jens Weidmann, who is far more conservative and potentially disastrous for southern economies that have benefited from Draghi's measures.  

Next thorny issue is the EU budget. As a remind the EU budget is largely used for competences where the EU has exclusive right to act (outside of Member-state interference). It is funded by 1% of GNI, plus the Value Added Tax and tariffs that goes straight to the EU and other miscellaneous resources (fines). Now remember the UK was both a major contributor but also had a rebate/refund mechanism ensuring it "got its money back", to use Thatcher's phrase. Still, the major debate at the summit is replacing the UK hole and if so what with.  

There's also been a general push to make all these decision making meetings more transparent, which raises further controversy. The new portuguese president wants to make the Eurogroup meetings more transparent after the Varoufakis episode where it was basically his word verus Dijsselbloem's as to what actually happened. And the EU Ombudsmann wants to have some comittees and council meetings minutes released. If EU-wide debates like the Greek debt crisis become about "their word versus mine", it won't look good.

It's the question what will happen with ECR now that the Tories will be gone. This group is already a bit of a hotchpotch, with secular-ish conservative parties (Tories, ODS), secular parties that are not even really conservative (N-VA),

That's a bit harsh, N-VA's leadership are more conservative in the European tradition than a lot of self-proclaimed conservatives who are either really social reactionaries with radical change of the European scale, or parties with Christian Democratic traditions. But I think you meant in the American sense. I think they will miss the ECR, because I can't see them joining the Green group with Lamberts at its head, and CD&V might continue to veto their EPP membership. Maybe the Convergents will lobby for them to join ALDE, but Verhofstadt will not like this.

Moscovici and Timmermans has also been touted as candidates, but meh. I don't know if any of the former PMs would be interested. Renzi? Thorning? Di Rupo?

I really doubt Di Rupo will take over even though his career at federal level here is over. Hes swinging the PS towards the eurocritical left, and has very little political capital left at home. He might run as an MEP but he faces an internal election process for this and if he leads the PS to destruction in the locals he'll be gone.

If Renzi decides to stay in PES he might have a go, providing his political capital hasn't extinguished back at home.

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Lamberts will probably be the male candidate, Keller or a high profile national Green politician as the female.

GUE will probably use a national figure with some European platform like last time. Mélenchon as a figure head?


Key questions as to the actual overall EP election result

• Where macron ends up (already alluded to). I think he may have to bite his tongue and form a coalition with ALDE but he clearly would like a coalition similar to his government. left-of-center Social democrats, pro-EU pragmatic Greens, and economic liberals who aren't too keen on identity issues. But looking at the above projection he could be a kingmaker in the EP, which is a powerful position to have
• Turnout, particularly youth turnout. If there is to be any accountability on a European level, and if the Spitzenkandidaten are ever going to work, there will need to be a European demos. The reason the Netherlands have CDA as their largest party in a EU election was clearly turnout, as freek said
• Related to the above, how much the electorates treat this as a sort of national midterm rather than an election on Europe. This varies from country to country. For Belgium for example, we have it on the same day as our federal and regional, but on the other hand we have experience of multi-level governance now, and vote according to competences. Hence why VLD (Verhofstadt) and the Green parties slightly over-performed compared to their federal results. How different electorates treat these elections is ultimately going to decide the outcome

[DavidB.]

ENF: Represented in 9 countries but 3 are people switching parties. Still, they shouldn't have any trouble getting another party to join them, or maybe the German independent who left AfD will be reelected from BP. KNP in Poland might be toast though. Still, I think they will barely reach both thresholds. No UK representation here other than a UKIP "independent".

Should have good chances of being formed again. Slovakia could be a good guess to provide the 7th country MEPs with several different options. SNS could return to the European Parliament, Kotleba's new far-right party or perhaps the new We Are Family party. They are all three at 8-9% in current polls.

I think Czech SPD are likely to win at least one seat and join ENF, given that Okamura was already hanging out with Geert Wilders and Marine Le Pen in Prague. This would be my number one bet, but you're absolutely right about Slovakia, of course.

Do you know more about Latvian TT, currently in EFD? Could they join ENF?

[windjammer]

Btw,
The far right in France is going to suffer a lot (if we don't consider Wauquiez as rightwing). Given the recent special elections, it is quite likely the National Front will at least lose 10 points.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Of interest for GUE - melenchon is gunning hard for Syriza to be kicked from the group.

[Diouf]

I think Czech SPD are likely to win at least one seat and join ENF, given that Okamura was already hanging out with Geert Wilders and Marine Le Pen in Prague. This would be my number one bet, but you're absolutely right about Slovakia, of course.

Do you know more about Latvian TT, currently in EFD? Could they join ENF?

Yeah, SPD seems a pretty certain one as well, if Okamura can control his forces this term.

Sorry, it should have said Lithuanian TT, Order and Justice. They have been in UEN (with DPP and PiS) previously, so perhaps they could go to ECR.