European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[Diouf]

EPP will pick their lead candidate in their Helsinki congress on 7-8 November 2018. Perhaps crowning Katainen at home? He seems the most likely candidate of the current commisioners with his background as Finnish PM. He is not very charismatic, and can easily sound technocratic and boring. If the EPP wants someone who sounds less EU-fanatic, he would be an okay chance. There has also been much talk about Michel Barnier, but I tend to doubt it. I can see all the ways he would be a classical EU frontperson with the "French connection" and long cliche speeches about more Europe, but I think his role as Brexit negotiatior will not really be an advantage. First of all, I guess he will be invested it in for many months to come, and having Mr. Brexit as the lead candidate is maybe not the best signal. But there does not seem to be a lot of impressive, potential candidates. Maybe Dacian Cioloş? Also a former Commissioner and former PM.

PES is also committed to the process, but I haven't seen an exact date yes. The Social Democrats are in trouble in many places, and their leading party this term, PD, is likely to deliver another Social Democrat disappointment in a few days. A few commissioners could be interested. Federica Mogherini is perhaps the most obvious, representing a big party in a big post, and she has been quite competent in her role and can be charismatic. However, she is quite pro-migration, and, to the very limited degree, the lead candidates will influence the European debate, that is probably not a very good sell. Moscovici and Timmermans has also been touted as candidates, but meh. I don't know if any of the former PMs would be interested. Renzi? Thorning? Di Rupo?

ALDE will choose their candidate in their congress in Madrid on 8-10 november. Whether they will be a serious player will largely depend on what Macron does. Margrethe Vestager has been among the most visible commissioners, and has been Deputy PM. While being strongly pro-EU, she is able to communicate without too many of the "More Europe" clichees. Macron seems to like her. Taavi Rõivas looks like he is quite active internally in ALDE, and could be another option. He has PM experience, and I think he could be a relatively broadly acceptable choice in ALDE, which still seems split between Social Liberals and Market Liberals.

Greens and GUE will likely nominate candidates, but with no chance of becoming Commission President. So they could nominate energetic MEPs to attack the other parties from the left. Someone like Ska Keller did that decently last time for the Greens for example.

Any other likely candidates?

[Diouf]

EPP: They'll easily pass this. They will be represented in all countries after Brexit (the UK was the only one without EPP members) and have a lot of large parties

Interesting whether they can maintain representation in all countries. Estonia could be a problem, I guess. Their only current MEP is from Pro Patria and Res Publica Union, who is low in national polls. Estonian Free Party, who was created in 2014, might be an option, but they are also only around 4-5% currently. In Latvia, Unity, who won 48% in 2014 with former PM Dombrovksis, seems to have totally imploded. But I guess if Dombrovskis runs again, he could win an EPP seat for some new grouping. The many EPP parties in Slovakia and Slovenia all seems to have taken a hit, but it seems likely EPPs would still be elected in both countries. Denmark is also in doubt. Conservatives is a bit on the rise, but still only at 4.5% in national polls, and current MEP Bendt Bendtsen, who has had great personal elections, is not running again.

S&D: Same as EPP. They'll get the requirements extremely easily. Several large parties and represented everywhere. Losing Labour is a bad thing though, especially now that they are doing well.

Social Democrat parties looks like getting cut down in size many places. I wonder how big the bloodbath will be.

ALDE: Represented in 19 countries (they lack: Italy, Latvia, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Greece and Cyprus) . Not sure if they could add any to their list or if any would drop out. Still, it seems they won't have much trouble. Though adding LREM would be a huge boost. The Lib Dems were already very small so losing them isn't a big deal.

With PD in trouble, it should be a lot easier for something like the Bonino +Europa List to get a seat, which I guess would likely end in ALDE. Nowoczesna has fallen quite rapidly again in Poland, but should still have good chances of winning seats.

G/EFA: Represented in 18 countries (not in Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, Cyprus, Portugal). However iirc several green parties are having trouble, and the "EFA" countries aren't that big. Plus losing the SNP, Plaid and the Greens will hurt them.

Pirates in the Czech Republic will likely win seats.

GUE/NGL: Represented in 18 countries (not in Belgium, Luxembourg, Austria, and literally all of former communist eastern Europe except the Czech Republic!). The far left is doing good, they will survive and rise. Their only UK representative was Sinn Fein with only 1 MEP, so it's not a huge loss (plus Sinn Fein will still have its Irish MEPs anyways).

Parti du Travail should get seats in Belgium.

EFDD: They are dead. They are represented in only 8 countries, of which 3 are just people who switched parties. The Sweden Democrats will join ENF or a successor, the Czech party will drop out of parliament, the Lithuanian party will join ECR and who knows with M5S. Since UKIP was almost all this was, they will be harmed by the UK leaving.

Like DavidB, I think Sweden Democrats will go to ECR, where I think they will be welcome (and will bring a few seats). I really wonder what M5S will do, and how sustainable the party actually is (with Grillo losing a bit of interest?)

ENF: Represented in 9 countries but 3 are people switching parties. Still, they shouldn't have any trouble getting another party to join them, or maybe the German independent who left AfD will be reelected from BP. KNP in Poland might be toast though. Still, I think they will barely reach both thresholds. No UK representation here other than a UKIP "independent".

Should have good chances of being formed again. Slovakia could be a good guess to provide the 7th country MEPs with several different options. SNS could return to the European Parliament, Kotleba's new far-right party or perhaps the new We Are Family party. They are all three at 8-9% in current polls.

[Diouf]

Current polling-based projection from Der (europäische) Föderalist Blog. The below is based on the proposed redistribution of some of the British seats.

EPP 184
S&D 148
ALDE 108
GUE-NGL 66
ECR 49
EFDD 46
ENF 42
Greens 34
Others 28

They have generally assumed that parties will stay in their current groupings, and then made assumptions about the new ones (Macron to ALDE etc.). They have kept EFDD in the oversight despite only projecting five different national delegations to make it (AfD, M5S, Debout la France, TT from Latvia, and Sweden Democrats).

[Diouf]

I think Czech SPD are likely to win at least one seat and join ENF, given that Okamura was already hanging out with Geert Wilders and Marine Le Pen in Prague. This would be my number one bet, but you're absolutely right about Slovakia, of course.

Do you know more about Latvian TT, currently in EFD? Could they join ENF?

Yeah, SPD seems a pretty certain one as well, if Okamura can control his forces this term.

Sorry, it should have said Lithuanian TT, Order and Justice. They have been in UEN (with DPP and PiS) previously, so perhaps they could go to ECR.

[Diouf]

Quatremer sometimes has a lively fantasy, but I'm guessing accounts like the below will not be a great endorsement for Barnier.

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https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/03/a-very-eu-coup-martin-selmayrs-astonishing-power-grab/

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[Diouf]

what's the, umm, rationale for this? Of all the reforms the European parliament needs, I wouldn't have put thresholds at the top of the list

I guess, it's primarily a German wish after their CC removed the threshold and allowed several micro-parties, including joke-party die Partei to win a seat.

[Diouf]

Fair enough for the Netherlands I guess - but really this exactly the sort of mind-boggling stupidity that just gives ammunition to eurosceptics.

If people don't take the European parliament elections seriously, there is a reason for that, and finding ways to tell people they are voting "wrong" is only going to be counterproductive.

I'm guessing this is hardly gonna be a big issue, and I don't know why Eurosceptics should be particularly incensed. E.g. in Germany, I guess this would favour AfD a bit if someone vote for them instead of NPD or other smaller parties. I generally think election systems should be as fair and proportional as possible, but if they keep the threshold in the lower band (1-3%), it is not a giant problem, I think. My preferred option in Germany would probably be to just shift to D'Hondt, which I think would raise the threshold to around 1%.

Like, the most legitimate complain people have about the EU is that it isn't democratic enough, why not do something about that?

Perhaps because people disagree about what democracy is? Some think the EP should get more and more powers, so as to resemble a nation state democracy with a strong parliament. Others think the most democratic would be to abolish the EP and let all decisions be taken in the Council since ministers are representatives of national elections with higher turnout, interest and therefore democratic legitimacy.

[Diouf]

Treffpunkt Europa has a prognosis for every EU country here.

Does not seem too accurate for the Netherlands, though: ALDE parties D66 and VVD winning 11 out of 29 seats seems way too much and is probably the result of using national polls for the next GE as indicator. D66 tend to do somewhat better in European elections compared to GEs, but the VVD do much worse. ALDE parties now have 7 seats (D66 4, VVD 3), so it seems really unlikely that they win more than 9-10 seats in the next EP election (I'd place my bets on 4 for both D66 and the VVD). CU-SGP losing their second seat also seems unlikely with three more EP seats for the Netherlands and the CDA are probably not losing two out of five seats in a low-turnout election. I also think Forum are likely to become the largest party on the Euroskeptic right, not the PVV.

The Danish result is made somewhat more difficult to predict, as we don't yet know when the next general election will be. By summer time, most major political deals of this parliament will probably have happened, so it can basically take place anytime from the beginning of the fall 2018 to the term runs out in the summer 2019 (in which case it will be basically at the same time as the EP election). However, five seats for the Social Democrats seem like a lot, judging at this moment. They were very low in general election polls in 2014 compared to now (20.1% to 26.1%) and Denmark will go from 13 to 14 seats. But, two new left-wing parties will run in 2019, the Alternative and the Red-Green Alliance, which will likely hurt the Social Democrats. No charismatic or well-known candidates have decided to run yet (since they are all hoping to become ministers after the general election). There will likely be less vote wasting on the right, as the Liberal Alliance is likely to run in an electoral alliance with Liberals and Conservatives, whereas in 2014 their 2.9% was wasted as they did not win a seat and ran on their own. The New Right could perhaps play that role in 2019, but whether they will run will likely also have a lot to do with the timing of the general election. This could also affect whether they ally with the DPP (easier after a general election perhaps, than before)

[Diouf]

Oh the Red Greens are running? Is this the end for the People's Movement Again the EU, or whatever it's called?

That will be one of the interesting aspects of the election in Denmark. With Denmark going from 13 to 14 seats, and the Red-Greens running high in polls (9.8% in current average), it is certainly possible that they both win a seat. The Red-Greens and the People's Movement will run in an electoral alliance to get the most of their votes, but if they only win one seat, it will go to the party with the highest vote between them. It will be interesting how it turns out. The Red-Greens surely got a strong party brand, but can they hit the right note with their policies? While they are anti-EU, they are not very vocal about it, so might not attract the hardcore anti-EU leftists. But the "we will work in the EU for the environment and against evil multinationals" position is quite filled up by the SPP and the Alternative. Is there enough space in between for the Red-Greens, who "start from zero" in this particular election? As mentioned in the "Great Nordic thread", I think the Red-Green lead candidate MP Nikolaj Villumsen is a very uncharismatic, unimpressive candidate. He has just been acting leader for the party for 5 months (due to Skipper's pregnancy) without anyone noticing at all. He only beat MP and Defence Spokesperson Eva Flyvholm, who would have been a better lead candidate, rather narrowly to top the list (1.514 votes to 1.200) despite clear support from the top of the party. The People's Movement is running Rina Ronja Kari, who won their seat in 2014, and has done decently. She has some charisma, although she can be too wonkish at times. The Red-Green party machine will probably also not be as effective as in normal elections, since quite a lot of their activists will campaign for the People's Movement. Can the Red-Green party brand cover for these flaws? We will find out.

[Diouf]

Also saw this today:
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/996765544459243520
Any other "eco-socialist" parties that could join them? I guess it's doubtful the Portuguese, Greeks and Danes make it in, though...

This must be the Varoufakis project, DiEM25. So his own new party, MeRA 25, will probably run with them as well, but I have no idea whether he will able to win a seat in Greece. I think the Czech Pirates is a part of it, and they would likely do very well. Barcelona mayor Ada Colau has been involved too, but I don't know whether any of the parties backing her could join. Unlike Eurovision, Australia won't take part, so I guess we won't see the Wikileaks Party

[Diouf]

Besides Macron’s and Varoufakis’s possible groups, are there any other possible new groups?

Well, potentially the liberal parties could be divided in two. Macron-supporters, social liberals in one group, and then centre-right parties with relatively tough immigration policies in the other (Venstre, VVD, ANO, perhaps FDP?). So that would likely be a new group as well. I'm not sure how realistic it is; there is always a degree of path dependency. And for a fully established party like ALDE, parties will be reluctant to break it up. And there will likely be more power for one big group than two smaller ones. For a number of these parties, there will also be an internal debate about where it belongs in these two groups. The two top candidates for the Danish Liberals, Morten Løkkegaard and Søren Gade, have very contrasting views about whether Guy Verhofstadt's vision is a force for good.

The ECR and the far-right groups could be re-organized with new members and perhaps a new name as well.

[Diouf]

Commitee to draft ALDE manifesto for the elections 2019. A manifesto that is not likely to play any real role in the campaign in member states. Roivas is the chair, and is a potential lead candidate for ALDE, I would guess. Interesting to see former Danish PM and NATO leader Anders Fogh Rasmussen as well.

[Diouf]

Helle for prezident?

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https://www.euractiv.com/section/future-eu/news/thorning-schmidt-makes-brussels-appearance-promotes-conservative-social-democracy/

[Diouf]

Social Liberals ditch Social Democrats in EU election

In Denmark, the Social Liberals and Social Democrats have been growing further apart, and now this is reflected in the electoral alliances for EP 2019 as well. In the last two EP elections, the Social Democrats, SPP and Social Liberals have formed an electoral alliance (so that their votes are combined for the first distribution of seats). However, the Social Liberals have decided to form an alliance with the Alternative instead. This basically guarantees that at least one of them wins a seat, and with a good performance both of them could win one. The Social Liberals in particular is hard to gauge before we know who their candidates will actually be, and whether current Competition Commissioner Magrethe Vestager, who is very popular, will run, whether as a candidate for the EP or/and spitzenkandidat for ALDE/Macronistas. The Alternative probably has the best candidate they could choose in Rasmus Nordquist, but the party needs to lift itself from its current slump (3.9% in polling average) and/or make a very succesful, innovative campaign (which they are much more likely to do than others).

The electoral alliances are almost in place. Liberals, Conservatives and Liberal Alliance will form one. Social Democrats and SPP will form one. Red-Green Alliance and People's Movement against the EU will form one. And Social Liberals and Alternative will form one. The DPP will probably run alone, but an alliance with the New Right could be an option. The New Right and Christian Democrats will likely only run if the general election is held before the EP election (very likely) and they manage to enter parliament (likely for New Right, unlikely for Christian Democrats).

[Diouf]

Katainen is not running! Stubb seems likely to do it instead, and is probably a more charismatic choice as well

https://www.politico.eu/article/jyrki-katainen-european-election-2019-wont-run-for-commission-president/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

[Diouf]

Sweden Democrats join ECR Group:

http://ecrgroup.eu/ecr-group-approves-two-new-members-peter-lundgren-and-kristina-winberg/

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German Grünen nominates Ska Keller as spitzenkandidat. The election will take place at the end of November. Keller was of course a spitzenkandidat in 2014 as well, and has been co-chair of the Green group, so she is a quite logical candidate. Like most MEPs, she is probably completely unknown outside Germany, but she is fairly charismatic. If there are spitzenkandidat debates again, she will probably stick out quite a bit, but it is of course doubtful whether media and voters will give any attention to this.

I'm guessing we will see three or four additional candidates?

[Diouf]

[Diouf]

Federalist blog projection based on current polls in member states: (compared to May, edit)

EPP: 177 (-1)
S&D: 145 (+8)
ALDE: 102 (-1)
LEFT: 57 (+2)
ENF: 56 (+10)
ECR: 50 (+7)
G/EFA: 38 (+1)
EFDD*: 22 (-1)
NI: 10 (-2)

Others: 48 (+4)

The parties are largely in the group, they currently belong to, but it does include the changes we already now. So Sweden Democrats to ECR, M5s in others as they have said they will not continue in EFDD (which will likely disband). Macron is in ALDE so far.

The seat distribution per country kan be seen at the bottom om the post: https://www.foederalist.eu/2018/07/europawahl-umfragen-juli-2018.html

[Diouf]

The lefties gaining? Maybe that'll convince S&D to start acting more like an opposition and less like a rubber stamp

Mostly due to significant gains in France. France Insoumise is set for 11 seats according to this projection. Front de gauche won 3 seats in 2014 + 1 seat for Alliances des Outre-Mers.

[Diouf]

PS trying to win some votes back from FI with an anti-trade candidate

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https://euobserver.com/tickers/142542

[Diouf]

Merkel pushing Manfred Weber (CSU) as EPP spitzenkandidat. The current leader of the EPP in parliament.

https://www.focus.de/magazin/kurzfassungen/focus-36-2018-manfred-weber-wird-evp-spitzenkandidat-fuer-europawahl_id_9506770.html

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Jan Zahradil from the Czech ODS tweets that ECR/ACRE will nominate a spitzenkandidat:".@ACREurope believes that next @EU_Commission President should be nominated by @EUCouncil, precisely as #EU treaties say. But we intend to challenge eurofederalist agenda of @EPP, @PES and others via #spitzenkandidaten contest."

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CDA supports Weber. Buma tweeted: Het CDA steunt @ManfredWeber als Spitzenkandidaat voor de Europese verkiezingen van 2019. Hij heeft de afgelopen jaren zijn kwaliteiten bewezen als leider van de @EPP fractie en is als geen ander in staat om onze gemeenschappelijke waarden te beschermen.