European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ will likely have a bad result next year ... while the ÖVP should easily win.

[Tender Branson]

Here's my Austria preview:

2014 results (18 seats)

27.0% ÖVP (EPP) - 5 seats
24.1% SPÖ (PES) - 5 seats
19.7% FPÖ (EAF) - 4 seats
14.5% Greens (EGP) - 3 seats
  8.1% NEOS (ALDE) - 1 seat
  2.8% EU-STOP
  2.1% A different Europe
  1.2% REKOS
  0.5% BZÖ

Turnout: 45.4%

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I'm pretty sure that the small parties below the threshold are not running again (well, EU-STOP might because their frontrunner is a querulent weirdo who runs all the time).

List Pilz might also run, splitting the Greens share in half (2014 was a really good year for them, before the migrant wave of course).

Also, low turnout elections like the EU one are always good for the ÖVP, Greens and NEOS because their voters are higher educated and are more likely to vote than others - such as voters from the SPÖ and FPÖ who are more working class. Therefore the FPÖ always underperforms in EU elections.

Much will also depend on the ÖVP-FPÖ's coalition climate early next year. As of now, it seems they might remain popular for another year (the ÖVP more so than the FPÖ of course). Tax cuts and child tax credits are kicking in on Jan. 1, 2019 - which might also help them in the election.

Usually, Austrian voters use the EU election to punish the domestic government, but 2019 could be different of some sort: I expect the ÖVP to win easily and gain votes, while the FPÖ will do worse. The SPÖ should do well and gain a bit, just like NEOS.

My prediction (19 seats, I guess, because of Brexit):

33% ÖVP (6 seats)
28% SPÖ (5 seats)
18% FPÖ (4 seats)
10% NEOS (2 seats)
  6% Greens (1 seat)
  4% LiPi (1 seat)
  1% Others

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So, +1 seat for EPP and +1 for ALDE.

-1 seat for EGP (assuming LiPi joins them).

[Tender Branson]

I wouldn't read too much into that article about the "FPÖ trying to form a new group" ...

This article seems kinda outdated to me: There was some speculation right after the election that the FPÖ might exit the FN's grouping in the EU parliament, because they are now in the government and "more moderate".

But this was denied soon after.

And it wouldn't make much sense for the FPÖ to leave that group either.

"Brussels insiders understand that ..." is only a code term for "we have no clue what is going on, so let's make something up to waste our time until the actual election".

[Tender Branson]

I don't think we'll get an EU election poll here until the start of 2019, when parties are taking this thing seriously and start presenting their lists.

I'd still think that the ÖVP will easily win the election, the SPÖ might be stable, the FPÖ is hard to predict (could gain a bit or drop a bit), the Greens will collapse by half, LiPi will gain from them and NEOS will also gain slightly.

Maybe Othmar Karas (a prominent, liberal, very pro-EU MEP for the ÖVP) will run his own list, because in recent months he repeatedly attacked Chancellor Kurz on immigration/asylum and especially FPÖ-leader and Vice-Chancellor Strache for his anti-EU talk.

[Tender Branson]

After Juncker recently said that he'd prefer the FPÖ to leave the FN-dominated grouping in the EU parliament (as a way of showing that they are seriously moving to the center, instead of being good buddies with the more extremist FN), the FPÖ shoots back at him saying "it is none of Juncker's business to meddle in European parliament affairs and how groups there should be organized".

Vilimsky (FPÖ) didn't rule out some group changes after the election though, citing "constant talks" with all the other European far-right parties ...

[Tender Branson]

How Austria would vote:

35% ÖVP (+8%)
27% SPÖ (+3%)
22% FPÖ (+2%)
  9% NEOS (+1%)
  5% Greens (-10%)
  2% LiPi (+2%)
  0% Others (-6%, formerly EU-STOP, Anders, REKOS and BZÖ)

[Tender Branson]

New EU election poll for Austria (Research Affairs/Ö24, 1.002 online interviews, Aug. 30-Sept. 5):





56% of voters say they will "definitely vote" in the EU election next year, which would be higher than the 45% who actually voted in the 2014 election.

Among the definite voters, the SPÖ is in fact ahead with 29% (ÖVP 25%, FPÖ 24%).

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/EU-Wahl-wird-Polit-Krimi/347753699

[Tender Branson]

Any reason why ÖVP is underperforming compared to national polling?

Also, i thought PILZ wasn't going to be running.

Not sure if I buy this poll ...

I would expect the ÖVP to do much better than that, around 35%.

Maybe it's because there are so many voting for "other" parties (5%), which seems unnaturally high. I don't expect many "other" parties to run next year, maybe the Communists - who will get 0.5% or something.

Austrians and other EU voters usually like to punish the governing parties, but ÖVP-FPÖ are still relatively new and successful, so why should the ÖVP get less than 30% next year ?

Also, LiPi decided against running in the 4 state elections this year, but will run in the EU elections next year.

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ calls Steve Bannon too extreme & doesn't want to co-operate with him for the EU elections:

"Austria’s far-right unwilling to collaborate with Steve Bannon"

https://www.timesofisrael.com/austrias-far-right-unwilling-to-collaborate-with-bannon

[Tender Branson]

GUE-NL might do well. They'll at least have a few (new) seats from Belgium, and also would win a bit in the Netherlands, Sweden and France.

The-soon-to-be-renamed List Pilz might join this group as well, but they have close to no chance of getting above the 4% threshold.

[Tender Branson]

Commission Vice-President Maroš Šefčovič announced officially on Monday (17 September) his candidacy to be the leading candidate of his social-democrat political group in the campaign for the 2019 European elections.

https://www.euractiv.com/section/eu-elections-2019/news/sefcovic-officially-enters-the-spitzenkandidaten-battle/

Christian Kern also officially wants to become European S-D lead candidate.

https://derstandard.at/2000087685696/Kern-auf-europaeischer-Buehne-Ein-Mann-fuer-die-erste-Reihe

[Tender Branson]

The Austrian lead candidates for the EP elections are taking shape:

Othmar Karas (ÖVP)



Christian Kern (SPÖ)



Lord Voldemort (FPÖ)



Claudia Gamon (NEOS)



Michel Reimon (Greens)

[Tender Branson]

New Austria EU poll:



Another poll result where 5% are voting for "other" parties, which do not exist ... (I think those are former Green voters from 2014 who do not know which party to support in 2019).

[Tender Branson]

New Austria EU poll:

[Tender Branson]

New Austria EU poll, now with Schieder for the SPÖ instead of Kern, who retired:

[Tender Branson]

Did you guys know that Manfred Weber is the European version of Beto O'Rourke ?

[Tender Branson]

Did you guys know that Manfred Weber is the European version of Beto O'Rourke ?

Clearly not since Weber is going to win.

Not ideologically of course, that was not the point.

Can you guess what makes them similar ?

[Tender Branson]

Did you guys know that Manfred Weber is the European version of Beto O'Rourke ?

This type of posts qualifies as spam, in my opinion.

Why ?

[Tender Branson]

Did you guys know that Manfred Weber is the European version of Beto O'Rourke ?

Clearly not since Weber is going to win.

Not ideologically of course, that was not the point.

Can you guess what makes them similar ?

Anyway, to solve it:

Both Beto O'Rourke and Manfred Weber are political newcomers and both are former rock musicians:

[Tender Branson]

Austria-related EU poll results from the recent ÖGFE survey:

"In your opinion, should Austria remain EU-member or exit the EU ?"

74% Remain
13% Auxit
12% Undecided

"From July-December, Austria has the rotating EU Presidency of member states. Do you approve or disapprove of the ÖVP-FPÖ government work for the EU Presidency so far ?"

49% Approve
33% Disapprove
17% Undecided

"Has your interest in EU-related politics increased since Austria took over the EU Presidency in July, or is that not the case ?"

23% has increased
72% that is not the case

"In May 2019, the next EU elections will take place. Are you personally taking part in those elections ?"

42% Yes, definitely
34% Probably yes
14% Probably not
  3% Definitely not
  7% Undecided

(Final turnout in EU elections almost always mirrors the "definitely" percentage. Still, the 42% percentage is relatively good at this point and could end up near 50% once the election campaign starts.)

https://oegfe.at/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Grafiken_Oktober-2018_GESAMT.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Here's the recent Asselborn-Vilimsky spat:

Austria's Vilimsky brands Asselborn 'fanatic leftist'

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://luxtimes.lu/european-union/35573-austria-s-vilimsky-brands-asselborn-fanatic-leftist

[Tender Branson]

Claudia Gamon has announced her candidacy for liberal NEOS frontrunner in the EP elections on Instagram today, which she'll easily win of course (NEOS has primaries).

Gamon is so far the only female frontrunner among Austrian parties and also the youngest with 29.



https://derstandard.at/2000093511215/Claudia-Gamon-will-ins-EU-Parlament

[Tender Branson]

Kurz announced today that the ÖVP will use preference votes cast in the EU elections to determine which of their candidates will get a seat in Brussels.

This works as followed:

The ÖVP will create their EU list of candidates by the end of February. It is not yet clear if Othmar Karas will once again be their frontrunner, as he has often attacked the ÖVP-FPÖ coalition as "anti-European" and "too tough on immigration".

It is assumed that 5-7 ÖVP members will be elected to Brussels in the May 26 election.

But depending on how many preference votes the candidates get, someone who is 10th on the list can also move up to 6th place for example.

There will be no thresholds for ÖVP candidates: the 5-7 candidates with the most preference votes from Austrian voters will head to Brussels.

The ÖVP thinks that a preference vote campaign will increase turnout among ÖVP-voters and win them the election by a big margin.

https://orf.at/stories/3105548

[Tender Branson]

Kurz announced today that the ÖVP will use preference votes cast in the EU elections to determine which of their candidates will get a seat in Brussels.

This works as followed:

The ÖVP will create their EU list of candidates by the end of February. It is not yet clear if Othmar Karas will once again be their frontrunner, as he has often attacked the ÖVP-FPÖ coalition as "anti-European" and "too tough on immigration".

It is assumed that 5-7 ÖVP members will be elected to Brussels in the May 26 election.

But depending on how many preference votes the candidates get, someone who is 10th on the list can also move up to 6th place for example.

There will be no thresholds for ÖVP candidates: the 5-7 candidates with the most preference votes from Austrian voters will head to Brussels.

The ÖVP thinks that a preference vote campaign will increase turnout among ÖVP-voters and win them the election by a big margin.

https://orf.at/stories/3105548

How is that legal? I assume there are rules for this; i.e. that you have to reach a certain % of the vote in order to be eligible for a seat through preferential votes. So will they sort of force everyone to sign something that isn't technically legally binding and just hope they abide by it? Or do the seats belong to the party even from a legal standpoint?

I think I start with your last point: yes, the 5-7 seats belong to the ÖVP, for example if they get 25-35% of the vote and Austria has 19 seats in the EP.

The ÖVP did the same in 2017 as well: they set up their list and made the candidates sign a contract in which their candidates accept defeat if someone with more preference votes overtakes them on election day.

So, it is technically not legally binding like you said - but binding for candidates within the ÖVP. I guess nobody would challenge this, because it would mean the end of the career for someone within the party ...

And no, there will be no thresholds: The 5-7 candidates from the ÖVP with the most preference votes will go to Brussels. There will be significant competition within the ÖVP among candidates because of it. Like an intra-party jungle primary.

[Tender Branson]

The Austrian Election Commission will not release the results of the EP election until 11pm on Sunday, May 26th this time, even though polls in Austria already close at 5pm.

That is because the last polls close at 11pm EU-wide and the Austrian Interior Ministry does not want to publish results earlier to influence voters in other countries (as it should be).

I wish all countries that are voting earlier than Sunday (like the Netherlands) or that close earlier would do so. If someone knows the results from the Netherlands, one could make a decision based on those results, which should be prohibited IMO.

https://www.vienna.at/eu-wahl-viele-veraenderungen-erwartet/6044966