UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[Torrain]

Presented without context:

[CumbrianLefty]

Rumour doing the rounds (via the Times news team) is now that Truss will clear out most/all of the juniour Treasury ministers too, and that Hunt is the frontrunner to become Chancellor.

Not sure whether even Jeremy Hunt wants to take on that most poisoned of chalices.

Any chance the sociopath Simon "fool's paradise" Clarke gets junked as well?

[Torrain]

Rumour doing the rounds (via the Times news team) is now that Truss will clear out most/all of the juniour Treasury ministers too, and that Hunt is the frontrunner to become Chancellor.

Not sure whether even Jeremy Hunt wants to take on that most poisoned of chalices.

Any chance the sociopath Simon "fool's paradise" Clarke gets junked as well?

Haven't seen anything about that, unfortunately. Clarke is one of the few true believers in Truss as PM, so I get the feeling he'll cling on in cabinet, like Dorries did with Johnson. There was a time when he was talked about as a replacement chancellor (particularly when Sunak resigned -as he was no.2 at the Treasury for much of Sunak's tenure), but thankfully he seems to be too close to Trussonomics 1.0 for that to happen now.

[Earthling]

So Truss is throwing every single one of the Treasury-ministers under the bus to save her own skin?

Yeah, that is going to be helpfull in the long run. Liz Truss did not have many friends among the MP's to begin with, sacking the ones that actually do is not going to make her any stronger.

[Torrain]

Hunt in as Chancellor - will be announced at the press conference:
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1580898615647617025

I look forward to the wave of freudian slips (and Ofcom complaints) that will greet this announcement.

[brucejoel99]

Something something Jeremy Hunt, something something failing upwards, something something iconic duo

[TheTide]

This sets Hunt up to be the caretaker during a leadership election.

[TheTide]

https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1580901884390305792?s=20&t=04iopTu...

[Earthling]

https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1580901884390305792?s=20&t=04iopTu...

An empty room?

[Torie]

Prior to it in fact happening, how widely was it perceived that the UK markets would have a nervous breakdown over the implementation of Truss's economic plan?

I mean presumably if Truss had a clue, she would not have done what she did knowing it would not survive a fortnight. Was she just hoping she would get lucky, and draw a winning lottery ticket?

Once upon a time, it seemed that the laws of economics had been repealed and there really was a free lunch.  Now it seems there is no lunch to be had at all at any price, just to balance things out.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Something that I think speaks to the utter lack of gravitas in Parliament these days compared to in temps jadis is that Hunt is thought of as a party grandee, a greybeard, etc. despite being fifty-five years old and in Parliament since 2005. I've posted in the past about the much shorter Commons tenures of recent PMs, but the fact that he's also younger than Kamala Harris, Mads Mikkelsen, Enrico Letta, and at least a few bikini models really drives the point home.

[MillennialModerate]

Unfortunately Hunt coming in as Chancellor and likely stabilizing of the markets will probably stem the bleeding for the Tories. Still think Labour are favorites but instead of Historic landslide (450+) or Blair landslide (400+) or Johnson victory (375+) - I think you’d see a modest victory with 330 seats or so. So much can change but that’s likely. The wasted worthless SNP votes really hurt Labour

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Unfortunately Hunt coming in as Chancellor and likely stabilizing of the markets will probably stem the bleeding for the Tories. Still think Labour are favorites but instead of Historic landslide (450+) or Blair landslide (400+) or Johnson victory (375+) - I think you’d see a modest victory with 330 seats or so. So much can change but that’s likely. The wasted worthless SNP votes really hurt Labour

People aren't going to just forget about the time their mortgage payments abruptly skyrocketed.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Though very much not part of their clique, Hunt is not so very far removed from Truss and the late Kwarteng on economic matters, which explains the choice. He was also very bad at both previous roles (Culture Secretary, Health Secretary) in which had had significant administrative responsibilities.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Unfortunately Hunt coming in as Chancellor and likely stabilizing of the markets will probably stem the bleeding for the Tories. Still think Labour are favorites but instead of Historic landslide (450+) or Blair landslide (400+) or Johnson victory (375+) - I think you’d see a modest victory with 330 seats or so. So much can change but that’s likely. The wasted worthless SNP votes really hurt Labour

People aren't going to just forget about the time their mortgage payments abruptly skyrocketed.

And the thousands of pounds that millions of people have lost from their pension pots have already been lost. They're gone and can't be recovered. I'd be careful about predicting too much, but the anger over that is not going to fade: why would it? It's a permanent blow, especially if you're working or lower middle class.

[Torrain]

This sets Hunt up to be the caretaker during a leadership election.

Yeah - short of a Truss-level screw-up (which you definitely can't rule out with Hunt), he's in the big leagues for the rest of this parliament.
Literally got a "Caretaker PM?" text or two from family when the announcement came through.

Even if the reported Sunak-Mordaunt coup were to somehow happen next week, I think PM Sunak, Mordaunt at FCD Office and Hunt at Treasury is the median outcome, to try and project a modicum of stability.

[Earthling]

In 1997 the British economy was booming and the Tories still lost by historic margins.

I doubt the British people will forget what Truss has done to them.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Though very much not part of their clique, Hunt is not so very far removed from Truss and the late Kwarteng on economic matters, which explains the choice. He was also very bad at both previous roles (Culture Secretary, Health Secretary) in which had had significant administrative responsibilities.

Foreign Secretary being more of a messaging and narrativizing role?

[CumbrianLefty]

Unfortunately Hunt coming in as Chancellor and likely stabilizing of the markets will probably stem the bleeding for the Tories. Still think Labour are favorites but instead of Historic landslide (450+) or Blair landslide (400+) or Johnson victory (375+) - I think you’d see a modest victory with 330 seats or so. So much can change but that’s likely. The wasted worthless SNP votes really hurt Labour

The fundamentals - economic and political - remain poor.

Whoever is in charge of the Tories until the next GE, firefighting is going to be their main activity.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Though very much not part of their clique, Hunt is not so very far removed from Truss and the late Kwarteng on economic matters, which explains the choice. He was also very bad at both previous roles (Culture Secretary, Health Secretary) in which had had significant administrative responsibilities.

Foreign Secretary being more of a messaging and narrativizing role?

Yes, in the end it's still a diplomatic post, which requires a very different set of skills.

[brucejoel99]

Though very much not part of their clique, Hunt is not so very far removed from Truss and the late Kwarteng on economic matters, which explains the choice. He was also very bad at both previous roles (Culture Secretary, Health Secretary) in which had had significant administrative responsibilities.

That his time assaulting the NHS has its own Wikipedia page still gets me every time I'm reminded of it.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Though very much not part of their clique, Hunt is not so very far removed from Truss and the late Kwarteng on economic matters, which explains the choice. He was also very bad at both previous roles (Culture Secretary, Health Secretary) in which had had significant administrative responsibilities.

Foreign Secretary being more of a messaging and narrativizing role?

Yes, in the end it's still a diplomatic post, which requires a very different set of skills.

Interesting. The State Department works very differently, as Rex Tillerson learned the hard way, but I had heard before that the Foreign Office had a much starker division between the political leadership and the career foreign service nuts and bolts.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

https://twitter.com/OOCThickOfIt/status/1580912574778200065

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Interesting. The State Department works very differently, as Rex Tillerson learned the hard way, but I had heard before that the Foreign Office had a much starker division between the political leadership and the career foreign service nuts and bolts.

Yes. Like most of the older Whitehall departments, it retains most of its old Victorian ethos.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Worth noting that Hunt also wanted to cut corporation tax during his leadership campaign.