Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[cvparty]

In the first round of voting in LA-SEN 2014, Mary Landrieu got more votes than Bill Cassidy, fair and square. And yet, she's not a Senator anymore. I wonder why Poliquin isn't complaining about that...

You're mixing up apples with oranges here. Cassidy beat Landrieu fair and square in a Runoff. Meanwhile in Maine a Computer decides the Race. How weird! Maine has no Runoff.

No, it's the same thing. If a non FPTP system isn't allowed, then runoffs shouldn't be allowed either. So Cassidy should be kicked out and Landrieu should take her rightful Senate seat.

LOL, imagine you were running in ME-2. Do you really want your Race decided by a Computer? The big Difference is: Runoffs ARE constitutional, Ranked-Choice Voting isn't.

umm... they are pretty much the same concept.

No, they ain't.

ranked choice voting = instant runoff voting?

[Holmes]

*feeds scantron ballots to be counted in the machines*

"Computers are deciding this election."

[GeorgiaModerate]

In the first round of voting in LA-SEN 2014, Mary Landrieu got more votes than Bill Cassidy, fair and square. And yet, she's not a Senator anymore. I wonder why Poliquin isn't complaining about that...

You're mixing up apples with oranges here. Cassidy beat Landrieu fair and square in a Runoff. Meanwhile in Maine a Computer decides the Race. How weird! Maine has no Runoff.

A computer decides almost every race nowadays.   It's just a matter of how the computer goes about doing that.

Plus, it's not the computer "deciding".  The voters are deciding; in this case, the voters for candidates that didn't finish in the top two have the ability to express their next choice(s) -- which is exactly the same thing that a post-election runoff does. 

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/MESecOfState/status/1062459456318005249

There's around 40K votes left to count

[Alabama_Indy10]

I’m definitely not a fan of ranked choice voting. But Poliquin knew the rules of the game.

[RI]

A properly designed rank-choice voting system should take maybe ten seconds to reallocate second choices.

[Nyvin]

I’m definitely not a fan of ranked choice voting. But Poliquin knew the rules of the game.

You could also say all the people voting third party did too and taking out RCV would be a disservice to them.

[Tartarus Sauce]

McAdams up by 1,020 after the latest Utah County dump. Another Salt Lake dump is coming at 5pm ET. Not sure how many votes are left.

The fair districts amendment has fallen behind

Hopefully Salt Lake pushes that back up and over.

Stephen Wolf thinks it will narrowly fail when all is said and done.

I don't think it really matters in the end. It was only an initiated statute and the legislature could have repealed it, and given that Congressional repercussions of not doing so, it's easy to see them gutting it or repealing entirely. But maybe it's worth trying again in 2020.

Wouldn't it just be easier to give the Democrats a Salt Lake City anchored district and be done with it? Salt Lake City isn't even in the 4th district and it looks like McAdams is going to win anyway. The gerrymander failed, and they'll have to add a 5th seat in the next round of redistricting.

[Sestak]

KAPUTER REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

[Nyvin]

McAdams up by 1,020 after the latest Utah County dump. Another Salt Lake dump is coming at 5pm ET. Not sure how many votes are left.

The fair districts amendment has fallen behind

Hopefully Salt Lake pushes that back up and over.

Stephen Wolf thinks it will narrowly fail when all is said and done.

I don't think it really matters in the end. It was only an initiated statute and the legislature could have repealed it, and given that Congressional repercussions of not doing so, it's easy to see them gutting it or repealing entirely. But maybe it's worth trying again in 2020.

Wouldn't it just be easier to give the Democrats a Salt Lake City anchored district and be done with it? Salt Lake City isn't even in the 4th district and it looks like McAdams is going to win anyway. The gerrymander failed, and they'll have to add a 5th seat in the next round of redistricting.

No,  Colorado and probably Arizona are adding seats, not Utah.

I really doubt the Utah GOP would give up the seat willingly.   

[Brittain33]

I don't think Utah is projected to get a 5th seat yet.

[MAINEiac4434]

Hearing scheduled for 9 AM tomorrow. Judge is a Trump appointee.

Dunlap has stated that if the court rules that RCV is unconstitutional, the entire election will be thrown out and there will be special election, which Jared Golden will win.

[Roblox]

Am I the only one who was a bit surprised to see Brian Fitzpatrick winning? I wasn't shocked, and I knew Wallace was a weak candidate, but I sort've expected Wolf/Casey Coattails to pull him over the line. In any case, this should be a top target in 2020.

[Politician]

Hearing scheduled for 9 AM tomorrow. Judge is a Trump appointee.

Dunlap has stated that if the court rules that RCV is unconstitutional, the entire election will be thrown out and there will be special election, which Jared Golden will win.

lol what an own goal.

[Brittain33]

Am I the only one who was a bit surprised to see Brian Fitzpatrick winning? I wasn't shocked, and I knew Wallace was a weak candidate, but I sort've expected Wolf/Casey Coattails to pull him over the line. In any case, this should be a top target in 2020.

It surprised me too. Remember polls in PA-7 showing Wild up by high teens, and polls with PA-11 competitive? But I guess it makes sense if you think about how rate of college education is lower in Lower Bucks than in other suburban counties.

[Tartarus Sauce]

McAdams up by 1,020 after the latest Utah County dump. Another Salt Lake dump is coming at 5pm ET. Not sure how many votes are left.

The fair districts amendment has fallen behind

Hopefully Salt Lake pushes that back up and over.

Stephen Wolf thinks it will narrowly fail when all is said and done.

I don't think it really matters in the end. It was only an initiated statute and the legislature could have repealed it, and given that Congressional repercussions of not doing so, it's easy to see them gutting it or repealing entirely. But maybe it's worth trying again in 2020.

Wouldn't it just be easier to give the Democrats a Salt Lake City anchored district and be done with it? Salt Lake City isn't even in the 4th district and it looks like McAdams is going to win anyway. The gerrymander failed, and they'll have to add a 5th seat in the next round of redistricting.

No,  Colorado and probably Arizona are adding seats, not Utah.

I really doubt the Utah GOP would give up the seat willingly.  

I was confused then, I thought Utah was on track to gain another seat.

I guess they won't do so willingly and it shouldn't be expected, but willingly is they key word here. They might not have a choice by the time redistricting comes around again for the 2030s. The Democrat is winning a seat that doesn't even include Salt Lake City proper.

I believe Salt Lake County is trending Democratic at a faster rate than what recent elections indicate. Between Romney running in 2012, the third vote split with McMullin in 2016, and Romney running for the Senate seat this year, a deep blue tint has been difficult to detect. The results in the 4th point to a much greater potential underlying trend that could lead to the the county eventually becoming a Democratic vote sink.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

In the first round of voting in LA-SEN 2014, Mary Landrieu got more votes than Bill Cassidy, fair and square. And yet, she's not a Senator anymore. I wonder why Poliquin isn't complaining about that...

You're mixing up apples with oranges here. Cassidy beat Landrieu fair and square in a Runoff. Meanwhile in Maine a Computer decides the Race. How weird! Maine has no Runoff.

No, it's the same thing. If a non FPTP system isn't allowed, then runoffs shouldn't be allowed either. So Cassidy should be kicked out and Landrieu should take her rightful Senate seat.

I have this joker on ignore, so maybe you should ask him what the flying fyck he means when he says that a computer will decide the race.

I have him on ignore too (I took everyone off ignore for Election Night, but it didn't take long for him to get back on) but his arguments in the quotes are laughable.  RCV is just an efficient way of implementing a runoff; in fact, an alternative name for it is "Instant Runoff Voting".

If this were an "instant" run-off, we'd have the run-off results at the same time as the first-place count.  

Why don't they count the second and third place votes at the same time as the first-place votes?
I cannot fathom why this wasn't calculated on election night, at least as an estimate.  It would seem so much more legitimate.

[psychprofessor]

the way Poliquin is handling RCV is exactly the same way R's would attack winning the popular vote and losing the electoral college...everyone knew the rules ahead of time but don't like the outcome

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/hellofasandwich/status/1062466360628850688

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/hellofasandwich/status/1062466360628850688

Wow not great. Mia might win this

[Thatkat04]

https://twitter.com/hellofasandwich/status/1062466360628850688

Wow not great. Mia might win this

Depends on whats left. Will be funny though if Love pulls it out after Trump bad mouthed her.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/FromBenC/status/1062451827399045120

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/hellofasandwich/status/1062466360628850688

How much is left to count in Utah county?

[IceSpear]

Salt Lake Tribune still thinks McAdams will win, but it's looking better for Love than it did before.

https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2018/11/13/gehrke-math-doesnt-look/

[Thatkat04]

Salt Lake Tribune still thinks McAdams will win, but it's looking better for Love than it did before.

https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2018/11/13/gehrke-math-doesnt-look/

https://twitter.com/RobertGehrke/with_replies

That was before today's disappointing update from Salt Lake County. There are over 30,000 ballots left in Salt Lake County, but McAdams needs to win them by a bigger margin in the coming days to offset Love's huge margins in Utah County. While Utah County only has about 5,000 votes left, Love won 74% of the last batch. McAdams won the latest batch of Salt Lake County by about 6 points.