Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[IceSpear]

Also, lol:

https://twitter.com/DrewGodinich/status/1062546740337770497

LMAO. Gotta love all these Republicans in Clinton districts who were arrogant enough to think they were safe. I wonder how they felt when they got that cold hard slap of reality.

[Pericles]

Also, lol:

https://twitter.com/DrewGodinich/status/1062546740337770497

Lmao, that is perfect.

[Tintrlvr]

They're not certain about how much is left either

Do we have some rough numerical estimate at least? There would need to be at least 10K to have the slightest chance of flipping the result (and probably more like 15K).

This article from yesterday says "nearly 1,000" previously rejected absentees are left to count in GA-07 in Gwinnett. That seems like not enough for Bourdeaux to take the lead (but maybe enough to make it close enough for a recount to have a plausible chance of changing the result) if those ballots strongly favor her (as controversial ballots usually do favor the Democrats). I think all of the provisionals were counted today, but it's not 100% clear to me that the provisionals are done. I've seen articles from a few days ago that said there were "several thousand" provisional ballots to count in GA-07 but only 1,252 were counted today -- but maybe previous reporting overestimated the number of provisionals.

https://politics.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/democrats-search-for-votes-before-georgia-election-results-finalized/yNspgifhm1NsnCXxVQRjiN/

[Doimper]

Also, lol:

https://twitter.com/DrewGodinich/status/1062546740337770497

LMAO. Gotta love all these Republicans in Clinton districts who were arrogant enough to think they were safe. I wonder how they felt when they got that cold hard slap of reality.

We know how Curbelo felt, lol:

https://twitter.com/carloslcurbelo/status/1061315207836954624

[Tintrlvr]

Also, lol:

https://twitter.com/DrewGodinich/status/1062546740337770497

If you read the article the tweet links to, you can see this wasn't an entirely stupid strategy on Walters's part. The Republicans' goal with the gas tax repeal campaign was not necessarily to actually repeal the gas tax (though they would have liked to) but to try to put something on the ballot that would to convince Republican voters to come out to vote when the Senate race was D v. D and the Republican gubernatorial candidate was a sacrificial lamb. By donating to the gas tax campaign, Walters clearly hoped to buoy her own reelection hopes. Indeed, she probably did by some small degree; the gas tax repeal passed in Orange County with 55.6% of the vote as of right now, meaning it certainly won decisively in her district, even if it failed statewide. It wasn't enough to save her candidacy but it probably was not a bad investment (and maybe better than lighting money on fire with pointless last-minute TV advertising).

[Oryxslayer]

Also, lol:

https://twitter.com/DrewGodinich/status/1062546740337770497

LMAO. Gotta love all these Republicans in Clinton districts who were arrogant enough to think they were safe. I wonder how they felt when they got that cold hard slap of reality.

I mean there was chatter in the months before the election that the Gas tax would bring a bunch of Republicans to the polls but I never found anything beyond spin. And in the last month we could tell this line was failing - multiple quality polls found different gaps is Yes and No responses. What this should have told them is that there were very few committed partisans on this issue beyond the normal base, there were a lot of leaners who saw the issue as just another ballot question.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://twitter.com/hellofasandwich/status/1062550688855552000

Oh boy. How many left to count?

300 absentee ballots that were previously disregarded.

oh wait, that is it? oh, I guess wodall hold on the.

Depending on how much Bourdeaux can gain from there, we could get to the range where a recount could legitimately effect the outcome.

They're not certain about how much is left either, so we don't know. A similar remaining dump would push Bourdeaux over the top.

According to this article, there are about 27k provisional ballots statewide in Georgia.

https://politics.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/judge-orders-review-provisional-ballots-georgia-election/ZM2yd0QGkyZ8Zi1IyVpF3H/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

GA has 13 Congressional Districts, so if provisional ballots are evenly distributed across GA Congressional Districts you would expect about 2077 provisional ballots in GA-07. There were 1252 provisional ballots counted so far, so that would lead one to believe that there are probably something like another 825 left.

If that is how many are left and they break with the same %s to both candidates as this batch of provisionals, that would cut Woodall's lead by another 242 votes down to 291 votes.

However, there are some reasons to think there might possibly be a greater than average amount of provisional ballots in GA-07 than other districts. It has had more population growth than average and probably more new people moving who might be more likely to have some sort of problem with their registration that would lead to a provisional ballot, and also we know that there were a lot of problems/irregularities/suppression of voting in Gwinnett in particular.

Anyway, so if there are some more provisional ballots left that could conceivably cut Woodall's lead some more. Whether it is enough is hard to say, but it seems like there is a good chance it could at least get quite a bit closer.

One thing to note though is that if there are uncounted provisionals in Forsyth County, those would probably be more Republican than ones in Gwinnett, so that might help Woodall (or at least not hurt him as much).

[Coastal Elitist]

Tony Thurmond is up to 50.4% against Marshall Tuck’s 49.6% in CA-Superintendent.

Edit: Betty Yee is at 64.3% for controller now. Dang

That's dissapointing.

Would much rather have an educator in charge of the state's public school than a literal charter school goon like Tuck.

Thurmond has a terrible track record with schools. Why do you have an irrational hatred of charter schools. One in my hometown benefited Hispanics the most since it was located in a Hispanic part of town. Also they are both Democrats.

[smoltchanov]

Tony Thurmond is up to 50.4% against Marshall Tuck’s 49.6% in CA-Superintendent.

Edit: Betty Yee is at 64.3% for controller now. Dang

That's dissapointing.

Would much rather have an educator in charge of the state's public school than a literal charter school goon like Tuck.

Thurmond has a terrible track record with schools. Why do you have an irrational hatred of charter schools. One in my hometown benefited Hispanics the most since it was located in a Hispanic part of town. Also they are both Democrats.

Why do you expect anything else from "wild eyed ultras" (in this case - of liberal stripe, though it doesn't matter)? They are the same in both parties. That's their "gut reaction". Many of them can't even give a rational explanation of it, it simply "this way"...

[Chief Justice Keef]

Tony Thurmond is up to 50.4% against Marshall Tuck’s 49.6% in CA-Superintendent.

Edit: Betty Yee is at 64.3% for controller now. Dang

That's dissapointing.

Would much rather have an educator in charge of the state's public school than a literal charter school goon like Tuck.

Thurmond has a terrible track record with schools. Why do you have an irrational hatred of charter schools. One in my hometown benefited Hispanics the most since it was located in a Hispanic part of town. Also they are both Democrats.

Why do you expect anything else from "wild eyed ultras" (in this case - of liberal stripe, though it doesn't matter)? They are the same in both parties. That's their "gut reaction". Many of them can't even give a rational explanation of it, it simply "this way"...

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/MESecOfState/status/1062705283569455104

[Zaybay]

I just find this to be truly surprising:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1062541533835026432

[Roronoa D. Law]

I just find this to be truly surprising:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1062541533835026432

Not really as Montana was not competitive in 2016.

[Zaybay]

I just find this to be truly surprising:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1062541533835026432

Not really as Montana was not competitive in 2016.

They had a competitive governorship election.

Anyway, I just find this rather interesting a a rather good sign for the senate seat in 2020.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I just find this to be truly surprising:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1062541533835026432

Not really as Montana was not competitive in 2016.

They had a competitive governorship election.

Anyway, I just find this rather interesting a a rather good sign for the senate seat in 2020.

That is if Bullock runs.

[VPH]

Starting to think Nate McMurray may win NY-27. He's winning absentees OUTSIDE OF ERIE AND NIAGARA with 60%, which is more than what he needs to close that margin. I especially think Erie and Niagara are friendlier.

[henster]

Starting to think Nate McMurray may win NY-27. He's winning absentees OUTSIDE OF ERIE AND NIAGARA with 60%, which is more than what he needs to close that margin. I especially think Erie and Niagara are friendlier.

So we’d have two 2 year rental seats then if he wins?

[Gass3268]

Starting to think Nate McMurray may win NY-27. He's winning absentees OUTSIDE OF ERIE AND NIAGARA with 60%, which is more than what he needs to close that margin. I especially think Erie and Niagara are friendlier.

So we’d have two 2 year rental seats then if he wins?

It wouldn't be the first time for that seat.

[Tender Branson]

Starting to think Nate McMurray may win NY-27. He's winning absentees OUTSIDE OF ERIE AND NIAGARA with 60%, which is more than what he needs to close that margin. I especially think Erie and Niagara are friendlier.

So, a gain of 40 seats is still possible if all races are fully counted ?

[Mr.Phips]

Starting to think Nate McMurray may win NY-27. He's winning absentees OUTSIDE OF ERIE AND NIAGARA with 60%, which is more than what he needs to close that margin. I especially think Erie and Niagara are friendlier.

So we’d have two 2 year rental seats then if he wins?

What is the other one that we are 100% sure about? 

[Landslide Lyndon]

It seems that both Utah and Salt Lake counties added some votes and McAdam's margin barely changed. Now I'm starting to believe he might win.

[Oryxslayer]

Starting to think Nate McMurray may win NY-27. He's winning absentees OUTSIDE OF ERIE AND NIAGARA with 60%, which is more than what he needs to close that margin. I especially think Erie and Niagara are friendlier.

So we’d have two 2 year rental seats then if he wins?

What is the other one that we are 100% sure about? 

Probably NM-02. Judging from History, Pearce probably runs again and wins his his seat back.

[Mr.Phips]

Starting to think Nate McMurray may win NY-27. He's winning absentees OUTSIDE OF ERIE AND NIAGARA with 60%, which is more than what he needs to close that margin. I especially think Erie and Niagara are friendlier.

So we’d have two 2 year rental seats then if he wins?

What is the other one that we are 100% sure about? 

Probably NM-02. Judging from History, Pearce probably runs again and wins his his seat back.

In a Presidential year, I'd think Dems have a decent chance at holding that district.  However in a midterm of Dem President, not so much. 

NC-09 and NY-27 would have been almost certain two year rentals.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Starting to think Nate McMurray may win NY-27. He's winning absentees OUTSIDE OF ERIE AND NIAGARA with 60%, which is more than what he needs to close that margin. I especially think Erie and Niagara are friendlier.

So, a gain of 40 seats is still possible if all races are fully counted ?

In the unlikely event that Dems somehow win NY-27 and ALSO win all of these races that are still uncalled (CA-21, CA-39, CA-45, GA-07, ME-02, NJ-03, UT-04), it would be a Dem net gain of...

42 House seats!



I am afraid CA-21 and probably GA-07 will end up going R though. But maybe... just maybe...

[colincb]

Looks like ME02 is going to close today

You must be logged in to read this quote.